船舶航道交通流量预测系统构建研究
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摘要
船舶航道交通流量日益增加,给船舶航道管理带来挑战,为了提高船舶航道交通流量预测准确性,得到好的管理船舶航道,构建一种船舶航道交通流量预测系统。首先研究船舶航道交通流量预测系统的现状,描述船舶航道交通流量预测系统的工作原理,然后通过对船舶航道交通流量历史数据进行学习,构建船舶航道交通流量预测模型,并将该模型嵌入到船舶航道交通流量预测系统中,最后进行了船舶航道交通流量仿真预测测试,该系统的船舶航道交通流量预测精度不仅可以满足船舶航道交通管理的实际要求,而且船舶航道交通流量预测性能要优于其他系统,表明本文系统是一种可靠、精度高的船舶航道交通流量预测系统。
The increasing traffic flow of ship channel brings challenges to ship channel management. In order to improve the accuracy of ship channel traffic flow prediction and manage ship channel well, a ship channel traffic flow prediction system is constructed. Firstly, this paper studies the current situation of the ship channel traffic flow forecasting system,describes the working principle of the ship channel traffic flow forecasting system, and then builds the ship channel traffic flow forecasting model by learning the historical data of the ship channel traffic flow, and embeds the model into the ship channel traffic flow forecasting system. Ship channel traffic flow simulation and prediction tests are carried out. The prediction accuracy of the system can meet the actual requirements of ship channel traffic management, and the prediction performance of ship channel traffic flow is superior to other systems, which shows that the system in this paper can meet the requirements of ship channel traffic management. It is a reliable and accurate traffic flow forecasting system for ship channel.
The increasing traffic flow of ship channel brings challenges to ship channel management. In order to improve the accuracy of ship channel traffic flow prediction and manage ship channel well, a ship channel traffic flow prediction system is constructed. Firstly, this paper studies the current situation of the ship channel traffic flow forecasting system,describes the working principle of the ship channel traffic flow forecasting system, and then builds the ship channel traffic flow forecasting model by learning the historical data of the ship channel traffic flow, and embeds the model into the ship channel traffic flow forecasting system. Ship channel traffic flow simulation and prediction tests are carried out. The prediction accuracy of the system can meet the actual requirements of ship channel traffic management, and the prediction performance of ship channel traffic flow is superior to other systems, which shows that the system in this paper can meet the requirements of ship channel traffic management. It is a reliable and accurate traffic flow forecasting system for ship channel.
引文
[1]卢升荣,刘瑶.极端水位对长江中游船舶交通流特征的影响[J].重庆交通大学学报(自然科学版),2017,36(3):103-107.
[2]张树奎,肖英杰,苏文明.基于一种改进型线性增长模型的船舶流量预测[J].江苏科技大学学报(自然科学版),2017,31(4):531-536.
[3]王群朋,范天佑.基于SPSS和多元线性回归的船舶交通流分布拟合研究[J].广州航海学院学报,2018,26(2):29-32.
[4]李晓磊,肖进丽,刘明俊.基于SARIMA模型的船舶交通流量预测研究[J].武汉理工大学学报(交通科学与工程版),2017,41(2):329-332,337.
[5]范庆波,江福才,马全党,等.基于PSO的BP神经网络-Markov船舶交通流量预测模型[J].上海海事大学学报,2018,39(02):22-2754.
[2]张树奎,肖英杰,苏文明.基于一种改进型线性增长模型的船舶流量预测[J].江苏科技大学学报(自然科学版),2017,31(4):531-536.
[3]王群朋,范天佑.基于SPSS和多元线性回归的船舶交通流分布拟合研究[J].广州航海学院学报,2018,26(2):29-32.
[4]李晓磊,肖进丽,刘明俊.基于SARIMA模型的船舶交通流量预测研究[J].武汉理工大学学报(交通科学与工程版),2017,41(2):329-332,337.
[5]范庆波,江福才,马全党,等.基于PSO的BP神经网络-Markov船舶交通流量预测模型[J].上海海事大学学报,2018,39(02):22-2754.