欠发达地区中长距离出行方式选择行为机理研究
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摘要
分析欠发达地区中长距离出行方式选择行为机理,能够为区域综合交通规划及客运组织提供理论依据。基于非集计理论,将居民个人属性、交通属性和出行属性作为影响因素,根据欠发达地区中长距离出行方式分布情况,将公路、铁路、民航3种出行方式作为选择肢,构建了欠发达地区居民中长距离出行方式选择的多元Logit模型。利用云南省1 642份旅客出行行为调查的有效问卷,运用SPSS软件对多元Logit模型参数进行标定,获取了欠发达地区居民中长距离出行方式选择的主要影响因素,并对各影响因素进行了敏感性分析。结果表明:欠发达地区居民中长距离出行方式选择主要受居民月收入、学历、出行距离等7个因素的影响,其中,月收入、学历和出行距离对出行方式选择结果存在显著的负向影响。对于选择公路出行的乘客而言,换乘便捷性对选择结果影响的显著性高于乘坐舒适度;对于铁路出行的乘客,乘坐舒适性对选择结果影响的显著性较高。当出行距离每增加1个单位,选择公路出行的概率降低0. 104个单位,选择铁路出行的概率降低0. 328个单位。学历与月收入的弹性值分别为1. 307和1. 297,均大于1,表明学历与月收入2种因素对欠发达地区居民中长距离出行方式选择的敏感度较高;其余因素对出行方式选择的敏感度存在一定差异。
It can provide theoretical basis for regional comprehensive traffic planning and passenger transport organization by analyzing the mechanism of choice behavior of middle and long distance travel in underdeveloped areas. The multivariate Logit model for residents' choices in medium and long distance travel in underdeveloped areas is constructed based on disaggregate model theory with 3 travel modes( highway,railway and civil aviation) as alternative parts considering the influencing factors of personal attribute,traffic attributes and travel attributes according to the distribution of medium and long distance travel modes in underdeveloped areas. By using the effective questionnaire investigation of 1 642 passengers' travel behaviors in Yunnan Province,the parameters of multivariate Logit model are calibrated by SPSS software,the main factors affecting the choice of residents' middle and long distance traveling mode in underdeveloped areas are obtained,and the sensibility analysis on these influencing factors are conducted. The result shows that( 1)the choice of residents' middle and long distance traveling mode in underdeveloped areas are mainly affectedby 7 factors,such as monthly income,education degree and travel distance and so on,among them,monthly income,education degree and travel distance have significant negative influence on the choice result of travel mode;( 2) the influence of transfer convenience on the choice result is more significant than riding comfort for choosing highway travel,while for the passengers choosing railway travel,the ride comfort has a significant impact on the choice results;( 3) when the travel distance increases by 1 unit,the probability of selecting highway travel is reduced by 0. 104 units,and the probability of selecting railway travel is reduced by 0. 328 units;( 4) the elasticity of education and monthly income are 1. 307 and 1. 297 respectively,which are all higher than 1,indicating that the 2 influencing factors have higher sensitivity to the choice of abovementioned travel mode;( 5) there are some differences in the sensitivities of the other factors to the choice of travel mode.
It can provide theoretical basis for regional comprehensive traffic planning and passenger transport organization by analyzing the mechanism of choice behavior of middle and long distance travel in underdeveloped areas. The multivariate Logit model for residents' choices in medium and long distance travel in underdeveloped areas is constructed based on disaggregate model theory with 3 travel modes( highway,railway and civil aviation) as alternative parts considering the influencing factors of personal attribute,traffic attributes and travel attributes according to the distribution of medium and long distance travel modes in underdeveloped areas. By using the effective questionnaire investigation of 1 642 passengers' travel behaviors in Yunnan Province,the parameters of multivariate Logit model are calibrated by SPSS software,the main factors affecting the choice of residents' middle and long distance traveling mode in underdeveloped areas are obtained,and the sensibility analysis on these influencing factors are conducted. The result shows that( 1)the choice of residents' middle and long distance traveling mode in underdeveloped areas are mainly affectedby 7 factors,such as monthly income,education degree and travel distance and so on,among them,monthly income,education degree and travel distance have significant negative influence on the choice result of travel mode;( 2) the influence of transfer convenience on the choice result is more significant than riding comfort for choosing highway travel,while for the passengers choosing railway travel,the ride comfort has a significant impact on the choice results;( 3) when the travel distance increases by 1 unit,the probability of selecting highway travel is reduced by 0. 104 units,and the probability of selecting railway travel is reduced by 0. 328 units;( 4) the elasticity of education and monthly income are 1. 307 and 1. 297 respectively,which are all higher than 1,indicating that the 2 influencing factors have higher sensitivity to the choice of abovementioned travel mode;( 5) there are some differences in the sensitivities of the other factors to the choice of travel mode.
引文
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[17]张睿,马瑜,赵冰茹,等.京沪线高铁与民航旅客出行选择行为研究[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2016,16(1):223-228.ZHANG Rui,MA Yu,ZHAO Bing-ru,et al.Passenger Choice Behavior of High-speed Rail and Airline between Beijing and Shanghai[J].Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology,2016,16(1):223-228.
[18]李晓伟,王炜,杨敏,等.多模式综合交通客运方式选择行为差异性:基于强制与休闲型活动出行的对比分析[J].西安建筑科技大学学报:自然科学版,2016,48(6):868-873.LI Xiao-wei,WANG Wei,YANG Min,et al.Disparity of Choice Behavior for Multi-mode Passenger Transport System:A Comparative Analysis of the Compulsory and Leisure Activities Travel[J].Journal of Xi'an University of Architecture and Technology:Natural Science Edition,2016,48(6):868-873.
[19]李晓伟,王炜,杨敏,等.中国民航与高铁竞争因素的敏感性分析研究[J].西安建筑科技大学学报:自然科学版,2017,49(3):388-394.LI Xiao-wei,WANG Wei,YANG Min,et al.Sensitivity Analysis of Competitive Factors between Civil Aviation and High-speed Rail in China[J].Journal of Xi'an University of Architecture and Technology:Natural Science Edition,2017,49(3):388-394.
[2]孙启鹏,朱磊,陈波.基于动态广义费用的客运通道交通方式选择Logit模型[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2013,13(4):15-22.SUN Qi-peng,ZHU Lei,CHEN Bo.A Dynamic Generalized Cost Based Logit Model for Passenger Corridors[J].Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology,2013,13(4):15-22.
[3]姜伟,赵阿柱,罗以丹,等.居民长距离交通出行方式选择行为研究[J].交通科技与经济,2016,18(4):12-16.JIANG Wei,ZHAO A-zhu,LUO Yi-dan,et al.Residents of Long-distance Transportation Mode Choice Behavior Research[J].Technology and Economy in Areas of Communications,2016,18(4):12-16.
[4]范雪婷.中长途旅客出行方式选择和敏感度分析[D].广州:华南理工大学,2012.FAN Xue-ting.Moderate/Long-distance Travel Mode Choosing Behavior and Sensitivity Analysis[D].Guangzhou:South China University of Technology,2012.
[5]张旭,栾维新,赵冰茹.基于非集计模型的武广线高铁与民航竞争研究[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2012,12(6):17-21.ZHANG Xu,LUAN Wei-xin,ZHAO Bing-ru.Competition between Wuhan-Guangzhou High-speed Railway and Civil Aviation Based on Disaggregate Model[J].Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology,2012,12(6):17-21.
[6]芮海田,吴群琪.高铁运输与民航运输选择下的中长距离出行决策行为[J].中国公路学报,2016,29(3):134-141.RUI Hai-tian,WU Qun-qi.Medium-and-long Distance Travel Mode Decision between High-speed Rail and Civil Aviation[J].China Journal of Highway and Transport,2016,29(3):134-141.
[7]吴麟麟,卢海琴,汪洋,等.引入忠诚度变量的城际出行方式动态选择行为研究[J].公路交通科技,2014,31(11):123-129.WU Lin-lin,LU Hai-qin,WANG Yang,et al.Research on Intercity Travel Mode Dynamic Choice Behavior with Introduced Loyalty Variable[J].Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development,2014,31(11):123-129.
[8]戢晓峰,姜莉,陈方.基于供给侧结构性改革的城市交通底线公平研究[J].昆明理工大学学报:社会科学版,2017,17(3):21-25,42.JI Xiao-feng,JIANG Li,CHEN Fang.On the Baseline Equality of Urban Public Transport Based on Supply-side Structural Reform and Transportation Equity[J].Journal of Kunming University of Science and Technology:Social Science Edition,2017,17(3):21-25,42.
[9]马晖玮.基于非集计模型的居民出行方式选择影响因素研究[D].南京:南京财经大学,2015.MA Hui-wei.Study on Influencing Factor of Travel Mode Choice Behavior Based on Disaggregate Model[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University of Finance and Economics,2015.
[10]赵蕾,薛锋.基于VENSIM的旅客综合运输模型[J].公路交通科技,2017,34(3):152-158.ZHAO Lei,XUE Feng.A Model of Passenger Comprehensive Transport Based on VENSIM[J].Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development,2017,34(3):152-158.
[11]刘炳恩,隽志才,李艳玲,等.居民出行方式选择非集计模型的建立[J].公路交通科技,2008,25(5):116-120.LIU Bing-en,JUAN Zhi-cai,LI Yan-ling,et al.Development of a Multinomial Logit Model for Trave Mode Choice of Residents[J].Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development,2008,25(5):116-120.
[12]LI Z C,SHENG D.Forecasting Passenger Travel Demand for Air and High-speed Rail Integration Service:A Case Study of Beijing-Guangzhou Corridor,China[J].Transportation Research Part A:Policy and Practice,2016,94:397-410.
[13]王文宪,倪少权,吕红霞,等.基于非集计理论的高速铁路旅客乘车选择行为研究[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2015,15(3):13-18.WANG Wen-xian,NI Shao-quan,LHong-xia,et al.Boarding Choice for High-speed Railway Passengers Based on Disaggregate Theory[J].Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology,2015,15(3):13-18.
[14]关宏志.非集计模型:交通行为分析的工具[M].北京:人民交通出版社,2004.GUAN Hong-zhi.The Disaggregate Model:A Tool of Traffic Behavior Analysis[M].Beijing:China Communications Press,2004.
[15]干宏程.交通信息与出行者线路选择[M].北京:科学出版社,2014.GAN Hong-cheng.Traffic Information and Traveler Route Selection[M].Beijing:Science Press,2014.
[16]张迦南,赵鹏.综合运输通道旅客出行方式选择行为研究[J].中国铁道科学,2012,33(3):123-131.ZHANG Jia-nan,ZHAO Peng.Research on Passenger Choice Behavior of Trip Mode in Comprehensive Transportation Corridor[J].China Railway Science,2012,33(3):123-131.
[17]张睿,马瑜,赵冰茹,等.京沪线高铁与民航旅客出行选择行为研究[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2016,16(1):223-228.ZHANG Rui,MA Yu,ZHAO Bing-ru,et al.Passenger Choice Behavior of High-speed Rail and Airline between Beijing and Shanghai[J].Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology,2016,16(1):223-228.
[18]李晓伟,王炜,杨敏,等.多模式综合交通客运方式选择行为差异性:基于强制与休闲型活动出行的对比分析[J].西安建筑科技大学学报:自然科学版,2016,48(6):868-873.LI Xiao-wei,WANG Wei,YANG Min,et al.Disparity of Choice Behavior for Multi-mode Passenger Transport System:A Comparative Analysis of the Compulsory and Leisure Activities Travel[J].Journal of Xi'an University of Architecture and Technology:Natural Science Edition,2016,48(6):868-873.
[19]李晓伟,王炜,杨敏,等.中国民航与高铁竞争因素的敏感性分析研究[J].西安建筑科技大学学报:自然科学版,2017,49(3):388-394.LI Xiao-wei,WANG Wei,YANG Min,et al.Sensitivity Analysis of Competitive Factors between Civil Aviation and High-speed Rail in China[J].Journal of Xi'an University of Architecture and Technology:Natural Science Edition,2017,49(3):388-394.
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