滤除ENSO信号前后夏季热带印度洋海盆尺度海温距平对西太平洋副热带高压的不同影响
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摘要
使用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、哈得来海表温度和中国国家气候中心的西太平洋副热带高压(西太副高)特征指数,对比分析了ENSO背景下的夏季印度洋海盆尺度模(Indian Ocean basin mode,IOBM)与独立于ENSO的纯IOBM(pure Indian Ocean basin mode,IOBM_P)对西太副高的影响机理。结果表明,滤除前期ENSO信号后,西北太平洋上为海温负距平,并在其西北侧强迫出Gill型反气旋。另外,印度洋与海洋性大陆间存在西高东低的海温距平梯度,印度洋正、负海温距平激发出的赤道开尔文波影响至海洋性大陆西部地区,强迫出的异常大气环流关于赤道基本对称。加之此时中国南海至西北太平洋地区降水偏弱,潜热释放偏少,从而非绝热冷却,导致西太副高异常偏强、偏南。而在前期厄尔尼诺的影响下,次年夏季印度洋与海洋性大陆地区均有利于出现海温正距平,开尔文波的影响偏强、偏东,强迫出的异常环流偏向北半球,通过"埃克曼抽吸"和非绝热冷却在对流层低层制造出异常负涡度进而影响西太副高,使其明显偏强、偏西、偏南。由于IOBM_P在2和8年周期上对西太副高的影响最明显,而ENSO信号中主要是3—7 a的短周期振荡,因此,ENSO背景下的印度洋变暖对西太副高的遥强迫实际包含了来自热带中太平洋的3—7 a周期信号的滞后影响和印度洋地区局地变化特别是2和8年周期变化的作用。这些结果为人们深入理解西太副高变化规律和做出有效预报提供了线索。
Using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset, the Hadley sea surface temperature(SST) data and the western Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH) indexes provided by the National Climate Center(NCC) of China, different impacts of Indian Ocean(IO) SST anomalies(SSTA) dependent and independent of ENSO on the variation of summertime WPSH are investigated. It is demonstrated that when the preceding El Ni■o signal is removed from the SSTA, SST is warmer than normal in the IO but cooler in the Maritime Continent(MC) in the summer. An anomalous anticyclonic circulation appears to the northwest of the cold SSTA center. At the same time, warm IO SSTA trigger Kelvin waves that mainly affect the region west of the MC. The abnormal atmospheric circulations are roughly symmetrical about the equator in the western Pacific. Meanwhile, the abnormal cooling over the South China Sea and the northwestern Pacific caused by less latent heat release leads to the intensification and southwestward expansion of the WPSH. However, in the context of early El Ni■o, warm SSTA appear over both the IO and MC, resulting in stronger eastward propagation of Kelvin waves and enhanced circulation anomalies north of the equator. The diabatic cooling and the Ekman pumping generate abnormal negative vorticity in the lower troposphere, which is favorable for the intensification and southwestward expansion of the WPSH. Moreover, in the background of ENSO condition, the WPSH is forced to vary by remote IO SSTA, which actually include both the lagging effects of signals with a short period of 3-7 years from the central-east Pacific and simultaneous impacts of local SSTA with 2 year and 8 year periodic oscillations from the tropical India Ocean. These results are helpful for better understanding and predicting variations of the WPSH.
Using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset, the Hadley sea surface temperature(SST) data and the western Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH) indexes provided by the National Climate Center(NCC) of China, different impacts of Indian Ocean(IO) SST anomalies(SSTA) dependent and independent of ENSO on the variation of summertime WPSH are investigated. It is demonstrated that when the preceding El Ni■o signal is removed from the SSTA, SST is warmer than normal in the IO but cooler in the Maritime Continent(MC) in the summer. An anomalous anticyclonic circulation appears to the northwest of the cold SSTA center. At the same time, warm IO SSTA trigger Kelvin waves that mainly affect the region west of the MC. The abnormal atmospheric circulations are roughly symmetrical about the equator in the western Pacific. Meanwhile, the abnormal cooling over the South China Sea and the northwestern Pacific caused by less latent heat release leads to the intensification and southwestward expansion of the WPSH. However, in the context of early El Ni■o, warm SSTA appear over both the IO and MC, resulting in stronger eastward propagation of Kelvin waves and enhanced circulation anomalies north of the equator. The diabatic cooling and the Ekman pumping generate abnormal negative vorticity in the lower troposphere, which is favorable for the intensification and southwestward expansion of the WPSH. Moreover, in the background of ENSO condition, the WPSH is forced to vary by remote IO SSTA, which actually include both the lagging effects of signals with a short period of 3-7 years from the central-east Pacific and simultaneous impacts of local SSTA with 2 year and 8 year periodic oscillations from the tropical India Ocean. These results are helpful for better understanding and predicting variations of the WPSH.
引文
黄荣辉,李维京.1988.夏季热带西太平洋上空的热源异常对东亚上空副热带高压的影响及其物理机制.大气科学,12(S1):107-116.Huang R H,Li W J.1988.Influence of heat source anomaly over the western tropical Pacific on the subtropical high over East Asia and its physical mechanism.Chinese J Atmos Sci,12(S1):107-116 (in Chinese)
黄荣辉,李崇银,王绍武等.2003.我国旱涝重大气候灾害及其形成机理研究.北京:气象出版社,3-18.Huang R H,Li C Y,Wang S W,et al.2003.Climatic Disasters.Beijing:China Meteorological Press,3-18 (in Chinese)
李丽平,宋哲,吴楠.2015.三类厄尔尼诺事件对东亚大气环流及中国东部次年夏季降水的影响.大气科学学报,38(6):753-765.Li L P,Song Z,Wu N.2015.Effects of three types of El Nio events on atmospheric circulation over East Asia and following summer precipitation in eastern China.Trans Atmos Sci,38(6):753-765 (in Chinese)
刘屹岷,吴国雄.2000.副热带高压研究回顾及对几个基本问题的再认识.气象学报,58(4):500-512.Liu Y M,Wu G X.2000.Reviews on the study of the subtropical anticyclone and new insights on some fundamental problems.Acta Meteor Sinica,58(4):500-512 (in Chinese)
卢楚翰,黄露,何金海等.2014.西太平洋暖池热含量年际变化及其对东亚气候异常的影响.热带气象学报,30(1):64-72.Lu C H,Huang L,He J H,et al.2014.Interannual variability of heat content in western Pacific warm pool and its impact on the eastern Asian climatic anomaly.J Trop Meteor,30(1):64-72 (in Chinese)
钱代丽,管兆勇.2018.超强与普通厄尔尼诺海-气特征差异及对西太平洋副热带高压的不同影响.气象学报,76(3):394-407.Qian D L,Guan Z Y.2018.Different features of super and regular El Nio events and their impacts on the variation of the west Pacific subtropical high.Acta Meteor Sinica,76(3):394-407 (in Chinese)
陶诗言,徐淑英.1962.夏季江淮流域持久性旱涝现象的环流特征.气象学报,32(1):1-10.Tao S Y,Xu S Y.1962.Some aspects of the circulation during the periods of the persistent drought and flood in Yantze and Hwai-ho Valleys in Summer.Acta Meteor Sinica,32(1):1-10 (in Chinese)
吴国雄,刘平,刘屹岷等.2000.印度洋海温异常对西太平洋副热带高压的影响:大气中的两级热力适应.气象学报,58(5):513-522.Wu G X,Liu P,Liu Y M,et al.2000.Impacts of the sea surface temperature anomaly in the Indian Ocean on the subtropical anticyclone over the western Pacific:Two-stage thermal adaptation in the atmosphere.Acta Meteor Sinica,58(5):513-522 (in Chinese)
吴国雄,丑纪范,刘屹岷等.2002.副热带高压形成和变异的动力学问题.北京:科学出版社,1-294.Wu G X,Chou J F,Liu Y M,et al.2002.Dynamics of the Formation and Variation of Snbtropical Anticyclones.Beijing:Science Press,1-294 (in Chinese)
周天军,俞永强,宇如聪等.2004.印度洋对ENSO事件的响应:观测与模拟.大气科学,28(3):357-373.Zhou T J,Yu Y Q,Yu R C,et al.2004.Indian Ocean response to ENSO:Observation and air-sea coupled model simulation.Chinese J Atmos Sci,28(3):357-373 (in Chinese)
Alexander M A,Bladé I,Newman M,et al.2002.The atmospheric bridge:The influence of ENSO teleconnections on air-sea interaction over the global oceans.J Climate,15(6):2205-2231
Ashok K,Guan Z Y,Yamagata T.2003.A look at the relationship between the ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole.J Meteor Soc Japan,81(1):41-56
Behera S K,Krishnan R,Yamagata T.1999.Unusual ocean-atmosphere conditions in the tropical Indian Ocean during 1994.Geophys Res Lett,26(19):3001-3004
Chen J M,Li T,Shih C F.2007.Fall persistence barrier of sea surface temperature in the South China Sea associated with ENSO.J Climate,20(2):158-172
Chen W,Guan Z Y.2017.A joint monsoon index for East Asian-Australian monsoons during boreal summer.Atmos Sci Lett,18(10):403-408
Chiang J C H,Sobel A H.2002.Tropical tropospheric temperature variations caused by ENSO and their influence on the remote tropical climate.J Climate,15(18):2616-2631
Chung P H,Sui C H,Li T.2011.Interannual relationships between the tropical sea surface temperature and summertime subtropical anticyclone over the western North Pacific.J Geophys Res,116(D13):D13111
Gill A E.1980.Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation.Quart J Roy Meteor Soc,106(449):447-462
He C,Zhou T J,Wu B.2015.The key oceanic regions responsible for the interannual variability of the western North Pacific subtropical high and associated mechanisms.J Meteor Res,29(4):562-575
Hou J,Guan Z Y.2013.Climatological characteristics of frontogenesis and related circulations over East China in June and July.Acta Meteor Sinica,27(2):144-169
Kalnay E,Kanamitsu M,Kistler R,et al.1996.The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project.Bull Amer Meteor Soc,77(3):437-472
Klein S A,Soden B J,Lau N C.1999.Remote sea surface temperature variations during ENSO:Evidence for a tropical atmospheric bridge.J Climate,12(4):917-932
Li M G,Guan Z Y,Jin D C,et al.2016.Anomalous circulation patterns in association with two types of daily precipitation extremes over southeastern China during boreal summer.J Meteor Res,30(2):183-202
Li T,Wang B,Wu B,et al.2017.Theories on formation of an anomalous anticyclone in western North Pacific during El Nio:A review.J Meteor Res,31(6):987-1006
Luo H B,Yanai M.1984.The large-scale circulation and heat sources over the Tibetan Plateau and surrounding areas during the early summer of 1979.PartⅡ:Heat and moisture budgets.Mon Wea Rev,112(5):966-989
Ohba M,Ueda H.2006.A role of zonal gradient of SST between the Indian Ocean and the western Pacific in localized convection around the Philippines.Sola,2:176-179
Qian D L,Guan Z Y,Tang W Y.2018.Joint impacts of SSTA in tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans on variations of the WPSH.J Meteor Res,32(4):548-559
Rayner N A,Parker D E,Horton E B,et al.2003.Global analyses of sea surface temperature,sea ice,and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century.J Geophys Res,108(D14):4407
Sardeshmukh P D,Hoskins B J.1988.The generation of global rotational flow by steady idealized tropical divergence.J Atmos Sci,45(7):1228-1251
Su H,Neelin J D,Chou C.2001.Tropical teleconnection and local response to SST anomalies during the 1997-1998 El Nio.J Geophys Res,106(D17):20025-20043
Suarez M J,Schopf P S.1988.A delayed action oscillator for ENSO.J Atmos Sci,45(21):3283-3287
Tan G R,Ren H L,Chen H S,et al.2017.Detecting primary precursors of January surface air temperature anomalies in China.J Meteor Res,31(6):1096-1108
Tao W C,Huang G,Hu K M,et al.2015.Interdecadal modulation of ENSO teleconnections to the Indian Ocean basin mode and their relationship under global warming in CMIP5 models.Int J Climatol,35(3):391-407
Terao T,Kubota T.2005.East-west SST contrast over the tropical oceans and the post El Nio western North Pacific summer monsoon.Geophys Res Lett,32(15):L15706
Wang B,Wu R G,Fu X H.2000.Pacific-East Asian teleconnection:How does ENSO affect East Asian climate?J Climate,13(9):1517-1536
Wang B,Zhang Q.2002.Pacific-East Asian teleconnection.PartⅡ:How the Philippine sea anomalous anticyclone is established during El Nio development?J Climate,15(22):3252-3265
Wang B,Xiang B Q,Lee J Y.2013.Subtropical high predictability establishes a promising way for monsoon and tropical storm predictions.Proc Natl Acad Sci USA,110(8):2718-2722
Wang B,Li J,He Q.2017.Variable and robust East Asian monsoon rainfall response to El Nio over the past 60 years (1957-2016).Adv Atmos Sci,34(10):1235-1248
Wu B,Li T,Zhou T J.2010.Relative contributions of the Indian Ocean and local SST anomalies to the maintenance of the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone during the El Nio decaying summer.J Climate,23(11):2974-2986
Wu B,Zhou T J,Li T.2017.Atmospheric dynamic and thermodynamic processes driving the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone during El Nio.PartⅡ:Formation processes.J Climate,30(23):9637-9650
Wu G X,Liu H Z.1992.Atmospheric precipitation in response to equatorial and tropical sea surface temperature anomalies.J Atmos Sci,49(23):2236-2255
Wu R G,Huang G,Du Z C,et al.2014.Cross-season relation of the South China Sea precipitation variability between winter and summer.Climate Dyn,43(1-2):193-207
Xie P P,Arkin P A.1997.Global precipitation:A 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations,satellite estimates,and numerical model outputs.Bull Amer Meteor Soc,78(11):2539-2558
Xie S P,Hu K M,Hafner J,et al.2009.Indian Ocean capacitor effect on Indo-western Pacific climate during the summer following El Nio.J Climate,22(3):730-747
Xu Q,Guan Z Y.2017.Interannual variability of summertime outgoing longwave radiation over the Maritime Continent in relation to East Asian summer monsoon anomalies.J Meteor Res,31(4):665-677
Zhang R H,Sumi A,Kimoto M.1996.Impact of El Nio on the East Asian monsoon:A diagnostic study of the ‘86/87’ and ‘91/92’ events.J Meteor Soc Japan,74:49-62
Zhou T J,Yu R C,Zhang J,et al.2009.Why the western Pacific subtropical high has extended westward since the late 1970s.J Climate,22(8):2199-2215
① http://cmdp.ncc-cma.net/extreme/floods.php?product=floods_diag
黄荣辉,李崇银,王绍武等.2003.我国旱涝重大气候灾害及其形成机理研究.北京:气象出版社,3-18.Huang R H,Li C Y,Wang S W,et al.2003.Climatic Disasters.Beijing:China Meteorological Press,3-18 (in Chinese)
李丽平,宋哲,吴楠.2015.三类厄尔尼诺事件对东亚大气环流及中国东部次年夏季降水的影响.大气科学学报,38(6):753-765.Li L P,Song Z,Wu N.2015.Effects of three types of El Nio events on atmospheric circulation over East Asia and following summer precipitation in eastern China.Trans Atmos Sci,38(6):753-765 (in Chinese)
刘屹岷,吴国雄.2000.副热带高压研究回顾及对几个基本问题的再认识.气象学报,58(4):500-512.Liu Y M,Wu G X.2000.Reviews on the study of the subtropical anticyclone and new insights on some fundamental problems.Acta Meteor Sinica,58(4):500-512 (in Chinese)
卢楚翰,黄露,何金海等.2014.西太平洋暖池热含量年际变化及其对东亚气候异常的影响.热带气象学报,30(1):64-72.Lu C H,Huang L,He J H,et al.2014.Interannual variability of heat content in western Pacific warm pool and its impact on the eastern Asian climatic anomaly.J Trop Meteor,30(1):64-72 (in Chinese)
钱代丽,管兆勇.2018.超强与普通厄尔尼诺海-气特征差异及对西太平洋副热带高压的不同影响.气象学报,76(3):394-407.Qian D L,Guan Z Y.2018.Different features of super and regular El Nio events and their impacts on the variation of the west Pacific subtropical high.Acta Meteor Sinica,76(3):394-407 (in Chinese)
陶诗言,徐淑英.1962.夏季江淮流域持久性旱涝现象的环流特征.气象学报,32(1):1-10.Tao S Y,Xu S Y.1962.Some aspects of the circulation during the periods of the persistent drought and flood in Yantze and Hwai-ho Valleys in Summer.Acta Meteor Sinica,32(1):1-10 (in Chinese)
吴国雄,刘平,刘屹岷等.2000.印度洋海温异常对西太平洋副热带高压的影响:大气中的两级热力适应.气象学报,58(5):513-522.Wu G X,Liu P,Liu Y M,et al.2000.Impacts of the sea surface temperature anomaly in the Indian Ocean on the subtropical anticyclone over the western Pacific:Two-stage thermal adaptation in the atmosphere.Acta Meteor Sinica,58(5):513-522 (in Chinese)
吴国雄,丑纪范,刘屹岷等.2002.副热带高压形成和变异的动力学问题.北京:科学出版社,1-294.Wu G X,Chou J F,Liu Y M,et al.2002.Dynamics of the Formation and Variation of Snbtropical Anticyclones.Beijing:Science Press,1-294 (in Chinese)
周天军,俞永强,宇如聪等.2004.印度洋对ENSO事件的响应:观测与模拟.大气科学,28(3):357-373.Zhou T J,Yu Y Q,Yu R C,et al.2004.Indian Ocean response to ENSO:Observation and air-sea coupled model simulation.Chinese J Atmos Sci,28(3):357-373 (in Chinese)
Alexander M A,Bladé I,Newman M,et al.2002.The atmospheric bridge:The influence of ENSO teleconnections on air-sea interaction over the global oceans.J Climate,15(6):2205-2231
Ashok K,Guan Z Y,Yamagata T.2003.A look at the relationship between the ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole.J Meteor Soc Japan,81(1):41-56
Behera S K,Krishnan R,Yamagata T.1999.Unusual ocean-atmosphere conditions in the tropical Indian Ocean during 1994.Geophys Res Lett,26(19):3001-3004
Chen J M,Li T,Shih C F.2007.Fall persistence barrier of sea surface temperature in the South China Sea associated with ENSO.J Climate,20(2):158-172
Chen W,Guan Z Y.2017.A joint monsoon index for East Asian-Australian monsoons during boreal summer.Atmos Sci Lett,18(10):403-408
Chiang J C H,Sobel A H.2002.Tropical tropospheric temperature variations caused by ENSO and their influence on the remote tropical climate.J Climate,15(18):2616-2631
Chung P H,Sui C H,Li T.2011.Interannual relationships between the tropical sea surface temperature and summertime subtropical anticyclone over the western North Pacific.J Geophys Res,116(D13):D13111
Gill A E.1980.Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation.Quart J Roy Meteor Soc,106(449):447-462
He C,Zhou T J,Wu B.2015.The key oceanic regions responsible for the interannual variability of the western North Pacific subtropical high and associated mechanisms.J Meteor Res,29(4):562-575
Hou J,Guan Z Y.2013.Climatological characteristics of frontogenesis and related circulations over East China in June and July.Acta Meteor Sinica,27(2):144-169
Kalnay E,Kanamitsu M,Kistler R,et al.1996.The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project.Bull Amer Meteor Soc,77(3):437-472
Klein S A,Soden B J,Lau N C.1999.Remote sea surface temperature variations during ENSO:Evidence for a tropical atmospheric bridge.J Climate,12(4):917-932
Li M G,Guan Z Y,Jin D C,et al.2016.Anomalous circulation patterns in association with two types of daily precipitation extremes over southeastern China during boreal summer.J Meteor Res,30(2):183-202
Li T,Wang B,Wu B,et al.2017.Theories on formation of an anomalous anticyclone in western North Pacific during El Nio:A review.J Meteor Res,31(6):987-1006
Luo H B,Yanai M.1984.The large-scale circulation and heat sources over the Tibetan Plateau and surrounding areas during the early summer of 1979.PartⅡ:Heat and moisture budgets.Mon Wea Rev,112(5):966-989
Ohba M,Ueda H.2006.A role of zonal gradient of SST between the Indian Ocean and the western Pacific in localized convection around the Philippines.Sola,2:176-179
Qian D L,Guan Z Y,Tang W Y.2018.Joint impacts of SSTA in tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans on variations of the WPSH.J Meteor Res,32(4):548-559
Rayner N A,Parker D E,Horton E B,et al.2003.Global analyses of sea surface temperature,sea ice,and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century.J Geophys Res,108(D14):4407
Sardeshmukh P D,Hoskins B J.1988.The generation of global rotational flow by steady idealized tropical divergence.J Atmos Sci,45(7):1228-1251
Su H,Neelin J D,Chou C.2001.Tropical teleconnection and local response to SST anomalies during the 1997-1998 El Nio.J Geophys Res,106(D17):20025-20043
Suarez M J,Schopf P S.1988.A delayed action oscillator for ENSO.J Atmos Sci,45(21):3283-3287
Tan G R,Ren H L,Chen H S,et al.2017.Detecting primary precursors of January surface air temperature anomalies in China.J Meteor Res,31(6):1096-1108
Tao W C,Huang G,Hu K M,et al.2015.Interdecadal modulation of ENSO teleconnections to the Indian Ocean basin mode and their relationship under global warming in CMIP5 models.Int J Climatol,35(3):391-407
Terao T,Kubota T.2005.East-west SST contrast over the tropical oceans and the post El Nio western North Pacific summer monsoon.Geophys Res Lett,32(15):L15706
Wang B,Wu R G,Fu X H.2000.Pacific-East Asian teleconnection:How does ENSO affect East Asian climate?J Climate,13(9):1517-1536
Wang B,Zhang Q.2002.Pacific-East Asian teleconnection.PartⅡ:How the Philippine sea anomalous anticyclone is established during El Nio development?J Climate,15(22):3252-3265
Wang B,Xiang B Q,Lee J Y.2013.Subtropical high predictability establishes a promising way for monsoon and tropical storm predictions.Proc Natl Acad Sci USA,110(8):2718-2722
Wang B,Li J,He Q.2017.Variable and robust East Asian monsoon rainfall response to El Nio over the past 60 years (1957-2016).Adv Atmos Sci,34(10):1235-1248
Wu B,Li T,Zhou T J.2010.Relative contributions of the Indian Ocean and local SST anomalies to the maintenance of the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone during the El Nio decaying summer.J Climate,23(11):2974-2986
Wu B,Zhou T J,Li T.2017.Atmospheric dynamic and thermodynamic processes driving the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone during El Nio.PartⅡ:Formation processes.J Climate,30(23):9637-9650
Wu G X,Liu H Z.1992.Atmospheric precipitation in response to equatorial and tropical sea surface temperature anomalies.J Atmos Sci,49(23):2236-2255
Wu R G,Huang G,Du Z C,et al.2014.Cross-season relation of the South China Sea precipitation variability between winter and summer.Climate Dyn,43(1-2):193-207
Xie P P,Arkin P A.1997.Global precipitation:A 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations,satellite estimates,and numerical model outputs.Bull Amer Meteor Soc,78(11):2539-2558
Xie S P,Hu K M,Hafner J,et al.2009.Indian Ocean capacitor effect on Indo-western Pacific climate during the summer following El Nio.J Climate,22(3):730-747
Xu Q,Guan Z Y.2017.Interannual variability of summertime outgoing longwave radiation over the Maritime Continent in relation to East Asian summer monsoon anomalies.J Meteor Res,31(4):665-677
Zhang R H,Sumi A,Kimoto M.1996.Impact of El Nio on the East Asian monsoon:A diagnostic study of the ‘86/87’ and ‘91/92’ events.J Meteor Soc Japan,74:49-62
Zhou T J,Yu R C,Zhang J,et al.2009.Why the western Pacific subtropical high has extended westward since the late 1970s.J Climate,22(8):2199-2215
① http://cmdp.ncc-cma.net/extreme/floods.php?product=floods_diag
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