禁售燃油汽车:全球铅消费的适应性调整及未来需求预测
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摘要
本文系统地研究了1930～2016年世界各国铅消费的历史数据,并依据各国经济发展情况将全球国家划分为五类不同的国家集团,运用人均GDP与人均铅消费量的"S"形消费规律并考虑禁售燃油车的相关政策的影响,分两种情况预测未来全球的铅需求:一是铅蓄电池未被大规模替代,此情况下在2025年、2030年、2035年、2040年,全球铅需求量分别为1 264万t、1 293万t、1 308万t、1 292万t;二是未来禁售燃油车,大规模铅蓄电池被其他电池所代替,此情况下在2025年、2030年、2035年、2040年,全球铅需求量分别为1 115万t、1 044万t、955万t、787万t。针对未来铅需求的变化情况,提出提高铅蓄电池的能量密度以及深循环性能、加强铅蓄电池的回收能力、传统铅蓄电池制造逐步向新能源电池转变等建议,为铅消费的适应性调整提供参考。
This paper systematically collects historical data on lead consumption in countries around the world from 1930 to 2016,and divides them into five different groups according to the economic development of each country.Using the"S"-shaped consumption rule of per capita GDP and per capita lead consumption and considering the impact of policies related to the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles,we predict the future global lead demand in two cases:lead storage batteries have not been replaced on a large scale.In this case,global demand for lead is 12.64 Mt,12.93 Mt,13.08 Mt,and 12.92 Mt in 2025,2030,2035,and 2040;in the future,fuel vehicles will be banned from selling,and lead storage batteries will be replaced by other batteries at a large-scale.In this case,in 2025,2030,2035,and 2040,global lead demand is 11.15 Mt,10.44 Mt,9.55 Mt,and 7.87 Mt,respectively.In view of the changes in lead demand in the future,suggestions are proposed as following:improving the energy density and deep cycle performance of lead storage batteries,strengthening the recovery capacity of lead storage batteries,and gradually transforming traditional lead battery manufacturing into new energy batteries to provide reference for the adjustment of lead consumption.
This paper systematically collects historical data on lead consumption in countries around the world from 1930 to 2016,and divides them into five different groups according to the economic development of each country.Using the"S"-shaped consumption rule of per capita GDP and per capita lead consumption and considering the impact of policies related to the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles,we predict the future global lead demand in two cases:lead storage batteries have not been replaced on a large scale.In this case,global demand for lead is 12.64 Mt,12.93 Mt,13.08 Mt,and 12.92 Mt in 2025,2030,2035,and 2040;in the future,fuel vehicles will be banned from selling,and lead storage batteries will be replaced by other batteries at a large-scale.In this case,in 2025,2030,2035,and 2040,global lead demand is 11.15 Mt,10.44 Mt,9.55 Mt,and 7.87 Mt,respectively.In view of the changes in lead demand in the future,suggestions are proposed as following:improving the energy density and deep cycle performance of lead storage batteries,strengthening the recovery capacity of lead storage batteries,and gradually transforming traditional lead battery manufacturing into new energy batteries to provide reference for the adjustment of lead consumption.
引文
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[21]徐铭辰,岑况,李建武,等.基于倒“U”形规律的中国未来10年能源需求预测[J].资源与产业,2011,13(5):10-15.XU Mingchen,CEN Kuang,LI Jianwu,et al.The prediction of Chinas energy demand of next decade based on reverse ushaped regularity[J].Resources Science,2011,13(5):10-15.
[2]张伟倩,赵振军.下半年铅价何去何从?[J].中国有色金属,2015(14):48-49.ZHANG Weiqian,ZHAO Zhenjun.Where is the lead price in the second half of the year?[J].China Nonferrous Metallurgy,2015(14):48-49.
[3]俞中华,冯君从,彭涛.铅锌景气度保持上升精矿紧张有所缓解[J].中国金属通报,2017(4):72.YU Zhonghua,FENG Juncong,PENG Tao.Lead and zinc booms keep rising and concentrates are relieved[J].China Metal Bulletin,2017(4):72.
[4]SHARMA S K,SHARMA G K.Demand forecasting techniques vis-à-vis demand forecast for lead[J].Procedia Earth&Planetary Science,2015,11:418-424.
[5]代涛,文博杰,梁靓,等.铅消费规律探索及中国需求预测[J].地球学报,2017,38(1):61-68.DAI Tao,WEN Bojie,LIANG Liang,et al.A tentative discussion on the law of lead consumption and a prediction of Chinas lead demand[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,2017,38(1):61-68.
[6]鲁静芳.多国宣布未来将禁售燃油车[J].生态经济,2017,33(12):2-5.LU Jingfang.Many countries announced that they will ban fuel vehicles in the future[J].Ecological Economy,2017,33(12):2-5.
[7]朱跃中,田智宇,刘建国.欧洲多国出台禁售燃油车计划对我国的启示与借鉴[J].中国经贸导刊,2018(7):65-67.ZHU Yuezhong,TIAN Zhiyu,LIU Jianguo.The enlightenment and reference of the prohibition of fuel vehicles in many European countries[J].China Economic&Trade Herald,2018(7):65-67.
[8]彭斐.传统燃油车正退出历史舞台吗?[J].汽车与配件,2017(23):6.PENG Fei.Are traditional fuel vehicles exiting the stage of history?[J].Automobile and Parts,2017(23):6.
[9]田广武,王继华,齐恒之,等.对我国拟制定禁售燃油车时间表的思考[J].国际石油经济,2017,25(10):32-34.TIAN Guangwu,WANG Jihua,QI Hengzhi,et al.Thoughts on the timetable for the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles in China[J].International Petroleum Economics,2017,25(10):32-34.
[10]徐晨曦.禁售时间表待定“双积分”助燃油车退出[J].中国战略新兴产业,2017(39):22-25.XU Chenxi.The lock-up timetable is pending,the“double points”fuel truck exits[J].China Strategic Emerging Industry,2017(39):22-25.
[11]罗克研.禁售燃油车还要多少年[J].中国质量万里行,2017(10):81-85.LUO Keyan.How many years will it take to ban fuel cars?[J].China Quality Miles,2017(10):81-85.
[12]范珊珊.禁售燃油车,德国做好准备了吗[J].中国能源,2017(10):56-58.FAN Shanshan.Is it ready to ban the sale of fuel cars?[J].Energy of China,2017(10):56-58.
[13]陈其慎,王安建,王高尚.钢、水泥需求“S”形规律的三个转变点剖析[J].地球学报,2010,31(5):653-658.CHEN Qishen,WANG Anjian,WANG Gaoshang.An analysis of the three turning points in the“S-Shape”rule of steel and cement demand[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,2010,31(5):653-658.
[14]陈其慎,王高尚,王安建.铜、铝需求“S”形规律的三个转变点剖析[J].地球学报,2010,31(5):659-665.CHEN Qishen,WANG Gaoshang,WANG Anjian.An analysis of the three turning points in the“S-shape”rule of copper and aluminum demand[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,2010,31(5):659-665.
[15]高芯蕊,王安建.基于“S”规律的中国钢需求预测[J].地球学报,2010,31(5):645-652.GAO Xinrui,WANG Anjian.The prediction of Chinas steel demand based on s-shaped regularity[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,2010,31(5):645-652.
[16]王安建,王高尚,陈其慎,等.矿产资源需求理论与模型预测[J].地球学报,2010,31(2):137-147.WANG Anjian,WANG Gaoshang,CHEN Qishen,et al.The mineral resources demand theory and the prediction model[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,2010,31(2):137-147.
[17]王高尚.未来20年世界铜铝需求趋势预测[J].世界有色金属,2003(7):6-9.WANG Gaoshang.A forecast of trend of world demands of copper and aluminum in future twenty years[J].World Nonferrous Metal,2003(7):6-9.
[18]王高尚,韩梅.中国重要矿产资源的需求预测[J].地球学报,2002,23(6):483-490.WANG Gaoshang,HAN Mei.The prediction of the demand on important mineral resources in China[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,2002,23(6):483-490.
[19]周浩,陈其慎.中国铁矿石需求及价格趋势分析[J].中国矿业,2010,19(S1):8-11.ZHOU Hao,CHEN Qishen.Chinese iron ore demand and price trend analysis[J].China Mining Magazine,2010,19(S1):8-11.
[20]高天明,陈其慎,于汶加,等.中国天然石墨未来需求与发展展望[J].资源科学,2015,37(5):1059-1067.GAO Tianming,CHEN Qishen,YU Wenjia,et al.Projection of Chinas graphite demand and development prospects[J].Resources Science,2015,37(5):1059-1067.
[21]徐铭辰,岑况,李建武,等.基于倒“U”形规律的中国未来10年能源需求预测[J].资源与产业,2011,13(5):10-15.XU Mingchen,CEN Kuang,LI Jianwu,et al.The prediction of Chinas energy demand of next decade based on reverse ushaped regularity[J].Resources Science,2011,13(5):10-15.