2015年北京田径世锦赛开幕式天气的精细化预报与方法
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摘要
重大活动关键时段的定点预报一直是天气预报服务的难点,因此对2015年北京田径世锦赛开幕式天气的预报思路和方法进行分析总结,结果表明开幕式天气采取了时间、空间逐步递进的精细化预报思路,每个阶段的预报重点、使用的预报方法和信息资料是不同的。短期预报以天气诊断和数值预报方法为主,应用多尺度数值模式和集合预报产品,预报出开幕式当天在东北冷涡背景下北京东部的强对流天气和"鸟巢"出现弱降水的可能性;短时临近预报依据高时空分辨率的探测资料、快速更新的同化产品和中尺度模式,采用多种资料融合技术,对稳定度、水汽和阵风锋等多要素综合分析,预判雷暴的生消变化,预报了开幕式"鸟巢"地区无降水,保障活动顺利举行。
It is quite a challenge for meteorological service to forecast weather at fixed-points during critical stages of a major event. This study thus analyzed and summaries the weather forecast schemes and methods for the opening ceremony of Beijing 2015 IAAF World Athletics Championships. The fine forecasting thoughts based on temporally and spatially step by step methods were effectively applied for weather forecast of the opening ceremony at the National Stadium at fixed points,with different key aspects,methods and observation data at each individual stage. Firstly,the short-term forecast are mainly conducted based on synoptic diagnosis and numerical simulation. A strong convection might have occurred in the east of Beijing and thus weak precipitation at the National Stadium as well just on the opening day affected by the northeast cold vortex. Secondly,the nowcast adapted various data fusion technology based on high temporal and spatial resolution observation data,rapid update cycling products and mesoscale numerical modeling results. The growth and elimination of thunderstorms are predicted through analysis upon integrated multi-meteorological element such as the stability,vapor and gust front,and further predicted that there would be no precipitation falling around the National Stadium during the opening ceremony,which ensured all activities performing successfully.
It is quite a challenge for meteorological service to forecast weather at fixed-points during critical stages of a major event. This study thus analyzed and summaries the weather forecast schemes and methods for the opening ceremony of Beijing 2015 IAAF World Athletics Championships. The fine forecasting thoughts based on temporally and spatially step by step methods were effectively applied for weather forecast of the opening ceremony at the National Stadium at fixed points,with different key aspects,methods and observation data at each individual stage. Firstly,the short-term forecast are mainly conducted based on synoptic diagnosis and numerical simulation. A strong convection might have occurred in the east of Beijing and thus weak precipitation at the National Stadium as well just on the opening day affected by the northeast cold vortex. Secondly,the nowcast adapted various data fusion technology based on high temporal and spatial resolution observation data,rapid update cycling products and mesoscale numerical modeling results. The growth and elimination of thunderstorms are predicted through analysis upon integrated multi-meteorological element such as the stability,vapor and gust front,and further predicted that there would be no precipitation falling around the National Stadium during the opening ceremony,which ensured all activities performing successfully.
引文
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[10]张超,李娜,贾健.ECMWF细网格模式2m温度产品在乌鲁木齐市温度预报中的检验[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2015,9(5):62-68.
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[12]刘勇,郭大梅,姚静,等.配料法在暴雨精细化预报中的应用[J].干旱气象,2015,33(3):514-520.
[13]冯慧敏,智协飞,崔慧慧,等.基于多模式集成技术的地面气温精细化预报[J].气象与环境科学,2016,39(4):73-79.
[14]李浚河,耿建军,张淅妍,等.2013年北京地区一次强对流天气过程分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2016,10(2):25-30.
[15]李如琦,孙鸣婧,李桉孛,等.南疆西部暴雨的动力热力特征分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2017,11(2):1-7.
[16]刘雯,李建刚,杨莲梅.2016年夏末南疆地区中尺度对流系统(MCS)活动特征[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2017,11(4):9-16.
[17]崔强,王春明,张云.干侵入对江淮流域一次强飑线过程的作用分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2016,10(2):18-24.
[18]张钊扬,钱贞成,王春明,等.江苏一次突发暴雨的数值模拟[J].气象与环境科学,2014,37(3):67-75.
[19]章国材.强对流天气分析与预报[M].北京:气象出版社,2011:2-6.
[20]孙明生,高守亭,孙继松,等.北京地区暴雨、强对流天气分析与预报技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2012:115-121.
[21]孙继松,戴建华,何立富,等.强对流天气预报的基本原理与技术方法-中国强对流天气预报手册[M].北京:气象出版社,2014:139-141.
[22]JohnsR H.Severe local storms forecasting[J].Weather&Forecasting,1992,7(4):588-612.
[23]Doswell C A.Flash flood forecasting:an ingredientsbased methodology[J].Weather&Forecasting,1996,11(4):560-581.
[24]俞小鼎,周小刚,王秀明.雷暴与强对流临近天气预报技术进展[J].气象学报,2012,70(3):311-336.
[25]Wilson J W,Megenhardt D L.Thunderstorm Initiation,organization,and lifetime associated with Florida boundary layer convergence lines[J].Monthly Weather Review,1997,125(7):1507-1525.
[26]Wilson J W,Roberts R D.Summary of convective storm initiation and evolution during IHOP[J].Monthly Weather Review,2006,134(134):23-47.
[2]董林,张明英,郭虎,等.北京奥运会开幕式天气预报难点的初步分析[J].气象,2008,34(增刊):9-15.
[3]郭虎,王建捷,杨波,等.北京奥运演练精细化预报方法及其检验评估[J].气象,2008,34(6):17-25.
[4]郭虎,王令,时少英,等.国庆60周年演练中一次降水过程的短时预报服务[J].气象,2010,36(10):21-28.
[5]潘进军,段欲晓,马晓青,等.国庆60周年庆祝活动气象服务满意度评估[J].气象,2011,37(11):1409-1414.
[6]汤绪.气象服务发展框架、方向与青年人的参与-基于WMO气象服务相关战略及计划的分析与思考[J].气象,2014,40(3):261-268.
[7]漆梁波.高分辨率数值模式在强对流天气预警中的业务应用进展[J].气象,2015,41(6):661-673.
[8]李佳,陈葆德,徐同.目标检验方法在高分辨率数值天气预报检验中的应用[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2016,10(5):1-9.
[9]李曼,杜娟,辛渝,等.2016年乌鲁木齐区域数值天气预报系统预报性能客观检验[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2017,11(5):46-52.
[10]张超,李娜,贾健.ECMWF细网格模式2m温度产品在乌鲁木齐市温度预报中的检验[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2015,9(5):62-68.
[11]薛志磊,张书余.气温预报方法研究及其应用进展综述[J].干旱气象,2012,30(3):451-458.
[12]刘勇,郭大梅,姚静,等.配料法在暴雨精细化预报中的应用[J].干旱气象,2015,33(3):514-520.
[13]冯慧敏,智协飞,崔慧慧,等.基于多模式集成技术的地面气温精细化预报[J].气象与环境科学,2016,39(4):73-79.
[14]李浚河,耿建军,张淅妍,等.2013年北京地区一次强对流天气过程分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2016,10(2):25-30.
[15]李如琦,孙鸣婧,李桉孛,等.南疆西部暴雨的动力热力特征分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2017,11(2):1-7.
[16]刘雯,李建刚,杨莲梅.2016年夏末南疆地区中尺度对流系统(MCS)活动特征[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2017,11(4):9-16.
[17]崔强,王春明,张云.干侵入对江淮流域一次强飑线过程的作用分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2016,10(2):18-24.
[18]张钊扬,钱贞成,王春明,等.江苏一次突发暴雨的数值模拟[J].气象与环境科学,2014,37(3):67-75.
[19]章国材.强对流天气分析与预报[M].北京:气象出版社,2011:2-6.
[20]孙明生,高守亭,孙继松,等.北京地区暴雨、强对流天气分析与预报技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2012:115-121.
[21]孙继松,戴建华,何立富,等.强对流天气预报的基本原理与技术方法-中国强对流天气预报手册[M].北京:气象出版社,2014:139-141.
[22]JohnsR H.Severe local storms forecasting[J].Weather&Forecasting,1992,7(4):588-612.
[23]Doswell C A.Flash flood forecasting:an ingredientsbased methodology[J].Weather&Forecasting,1996,11(4):560-581.
[24]俞小鼎,周小刚,王秀明.雷暴与强对流临近天气预报技术进展[J].气象学报,2012,70(3):311-336.
[25]Wilson J W,Megenhardt D L.Thunderstorm Initiation,organization,and lifetime associated with Florida boundary layer convergence lines[J].Monthly Weather Review,1997,125(7):1507-1525.
[26]Wilson J W,Roberts R D.Summary of convective storm initiation and evolution during IHOP[J].Monthly Weather Review,2006,134(134):23-47.
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