认知程度、未来预期与农户农业低碳生产意愿——基于武汉市农户的调查数据
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摘要
基于武汉市农村地区的微观调查数据,利用二元Logistic模型探讨了认知程度、未来预期对农户农业低碳生产意愿的影响。研究发现:(1)在城郊农村地区,约有37.92%的农户存在农业低碳生产意愿。(2)认知程度和未来预期均对农户农业低碳生产意愿产生了重要影响,具体表现在,农户用于信息获取的时间越长、对低碳农业理念的了解越深、有过相关培训经历,其参与农业低碳生产的可能性就越大;农户对低碳生产农产品的品质预期越好、价格预期越高、声誉预期越好、政府支持力度预期越大、成本预期越低,其参与农业低碳生产的意愿则更为强烈。(3)控制变量中,户主性别、劳动力数量对农户农业低碳生产意愿均表现出显著的正效应,而务农年限和农业收入占比则呈现出明显的负向影响。据此提出增强农户农业低碳生产意愿的对策建议。
Based on the micro-survey data of rural areas in Wuhan,this paper discusses the influence of cognitive level and future expectations on farmers' willingness to undertake low-carbon agricultural production by using binary logistics model.The research found that:(1)In suburban rural areas,about 37.92%farmers have the willingness to undertake low-carbon agricultural production.(2)The cognition degree and future expectations have an important influence on farmers' willingness.The specific manifestations are that the more time farmers spend on information acquisition,the deeper they know about the concept of low-carbon agriculture and the more relevant training experience they have,the more likely they are to participate in low-carbon production in agriculture.When farmers expect better quality,higher price,better reputation,greater government support and lower cost of low-carbon agricultural products,their willingness to participate in agricultural low-carbon production is stronger.(3)Among the control variables,the gender of the head of household and the number of labor force show significant positive effects on farmers' low-carbon willingness,while the number of years of farming and the percentage of agricultural income show significant negative effects.Finally,some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to enhance farmers' low-carbon willingness according to the research conclusions.
Based on the micro-survey data of rural areas in Wuhan,this paper discusses the influence of cognitive level and future expectations on farmers' willingness to undertake low-carbon agricultural production by using binary logistics model.The research found that:(1)In suburban rural areas,about 37.92%farmers have the willingness to undertake low-carbon agricultural production.(2)The cognition degree and future expectations have an important influence on farmers' willingness.The specific manifestations are that the more time farmers spend on information acquisition,the deeper they know about the concept of low-carbon agriculture and the more relevant training experience they have,the more likely they are to participate in low-carbon production in agriculture.When farmers expect better quality,higher price,better reputation,greater government support and lower cost of low-carbon agricultural products,their willingness to participate in agricultural low-carbon production is stronger.(3)Among the control variables,the gender of the head of household and the number of labor force show significant positive effects on farmers' low-carbon willingness,while the number of years of farming and the percentage of agricultural income show significant negative effects.Finally,some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to enhance farmers' low-carbon willingness according to the research conclusions.
引文
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[25]浦徐进,蒋力,刘焕明.农户维护集体品牌的行为分析:个人声誉与组织声誉的互动[J].农业经济问题,2011,32(4):99-104.
[26]赵玉凤.基于制度视角的我国低碳农业发展影响因素研究[D].成都:四川农业大学,2012.
[27]熊冬洋.促进低碳农业发展的财政政策研究[J].经济纵横,2017(5):112-117.
[28]苏向辉,孙挺,王保力,等.新疆棉农低碳生产行为及其影响因素分析——以化肥施用为例[J].中国农业资源与区划,2017,38(8):43-48.
[2]赵其国,黄国勤,钱海燕.低碳农业[J].土壤,2011,43(1):1-5.
[3]陈儒,姜志德,姚顺波.低碳农业联合生产的绩效评估及其影响因素分析[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2018(03):44-55.
[4]曾大林,纪凡荣,李山峰.中国省际低碳农业发展的实证分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013,23(11):30-35.
[5]陈瑾瑜,张文秀.低碳农业发展的综合评价——以四川省为例[J].经济问题,2015(2):916-923.
[6]朱玲,周科.低碳农业经济指标体系构建及对江苏省的评价[J].中国农业资源与区划,2017,38(5):180-186.
[7]许广月.中国低碳农业发展研究[J].经济学家,2010(10):72-78.
[8] JENNIFER A B,STEVEN J D,DAVID B L.Greenhouse gas mitigation by agricultural intensification[J].Proceedings of the national academy of sciences of the United States of America,2010,107(26):12052-12057.
[9]刘静暖,于畅,孙亚南.低碳农业经济理论与实现模式探索[J].经济纵横,2012(6):64-67.
[10]ZORNOZ R,ROSALES R M,ACOSTA J A,et al.Efficient irrigation management can contribute to reduce soil CO2emissions in agriculture[J].Geoderma,2016,263(2):70-77.
[11]杨果,陈瑶.新型农业经营主体参与低碳农业发展的激励机制设计[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(6):94-99.
[12]祝华军,田志宏.稻农采用低碳技术措施意愿分析——基于南方水稻产区的调查[J].农业技术经济,2013(3):62-71.
[13]田云,张俊飚,何可,等.农户农业低碳生产行为及其影响因素分析——以化肥施用和农药使用为例[J].中国农村观察,2015(4):61-70.
[14]乔金杰,穆月英,赵旭强,等.政府补贴对低碳农业技术采用的干预效应——基于山西和河北省农户调研数据[J].干旱区资源与环境,2016,30(4):46-50.
[15]JOHN L F,PAUL T,SIMON J S,et al.Agricultural residue gasification for low-cost,low-carbon decentralized power:an empirical case study in Cambodia[J].Applied energy,2016,177(9):612-624.
[16]CARAUTA M,LATYNSKIY E,MOSSINGER J.Can preferential credit programs speed up the adoption of low-carbon agricultural systems in Mato Grosso,Brazil?Results from bioeconomic microsimulation[J].Regional environmental change,2018,18(1):117-128.
[17]褚彩虹,冯淑怡,张蔚文.农户采用环境友好型农业技术行为的实证分析——以有机肥与测土配方施肥技术为例[J].中国农村经济,2012(3):68-77.
[18]侯博,应瑞瑶.分散农户低碳生产行为决策研究——基于TFP和SEM的实证分析[J].农业技术经济,2015(2):4-13.
[19]李卫,薛彩霞,姚顺波,等.农户保护性耕作技术采用行为及其影响因素:基于黄土高原476户农户的分析[J].中国农村经济,2017(1):44-57.
[20]李波,梅倩.农业生产碳行为方式及其影响因素研究——基于湖北省典型农村的农户调查[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2017(6):51-58.
[21]陈昌洪.农户选择低碳农业标准化的意愿及影响因素分析——基于四川省农户的调查[J].北京理工大学学报(社会科学版),2013,15(3):21-25.
[22]刘帅,钟甫宁.实际价格、粮食可获性与农业生产决策——基于农户模型的分析框架和实证检验[J].农业经济问题,2011,32(6):15-20.
[23]苗珊珊,陆迁.粮农生产决策行为的影响因素:价格抑或收益[J].改革,2013(9):26-32.
[24]GARBACH K,LUBELL M,DECLERCK F.Payment for ecosystem services:the roles of positive incentives and information sharing in stimulating adoption of silvopastoral conservation practices[J].Agriculture ecosystems&environment,2012,156(8):27-36.
[25]浦徐进,蒋力,刘焕明.农户维护集体品牌的行为分析:个人声誉与组织声誉的互动[J].农业经济问题,2011,32(4):99-104.
[26]赵玉凤.基于制度视角的我国低碳农业发展影响因素研究[D].成都:四川农业大学,2012.
[27]熊冬洋.促进低碳农业发展的财政政策研究[J].经济纵横,2017(5):112-117.
[28]苏向辉,孙挺,王保力,等.新疆棉农低碳生产行为及其影响因素分析——以化肥施用为例[J].中国农业资源与区划,2017,38(8):43-48.
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