中国建筑部门中长期低碳发展路径
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摘要
本文讨论了城镇化背景下建筑部门未来发展驱动因子与能源服务需求的变化趋势,并设定基准(BAU)、自主贡献(NDC)和强化低碳(ELC)3个情景,运用自下而上的建筑部门能源系统模型(PECE-Building)分析2013—2050年不同发展路径下建筑部门能源需求和CO2排放趋势,评估建筑部门实现中长期低碳发展目标的技术路线图和投资需求。研究结果表明,受城镇化进程与收入增长驱动,中国中长期建筑部门能源服务需求将快速增长,建筑部门成为中国未来能耗与排放增长的重要来源。BAU情景下建筑部门2050年能耗与CO2排放水平较2013年分别上升142.8%、103.1%;NDC情景下全社会CO2排放达峰,但建筑部门排放依然保持持续增长;ELC情景下建筑部门有望在2027年左右以7.8亿t CO2排放达峰,2050年排放降至6.15亿t,低于2013年水平。ELC情景下能效技术与新能源技术累计减排量分别占比33.4%和66.6%,北方城镇供暖是最重要的减排领域。实现该低碳发展目标所需新增投资共计2694.3亿元,占各期GDP比重均不超过0.26‰。因此,建筑部门有望走上一条技术可行、经济可接受的低碳转型之路。
This article discusses the trends of future driving factors and energy service demands of China's building sector in the context of urbanization. Three scenarios——business as usual(BAU), nationally determined contribution(NDC), and enhanced low carbon(ELC) ——were set in a bottom-up energy system model of building sector(Programme of Energy and Climate Economics(PECE-Building)). The model was used to analyze the energy demand and carbon emission trends of China's building sector under different development pathways during 2013-2050, and to assess the technology roadmap and investment needs to achieve the sector's mediumand long-term low carbon development goals. The results show that the energy service demand of China's building sector will grow rapidly due to the urbanization process and income growth. The sector will become an important source of China's future energy consumption and carbon emissions growth. Under the BAU scenario, the energy consumption and CO2 emissions of the building sector will increase by 142.8% and 103.1% in 2050 compared with 2013. Under the NDC scenario, the building sector's CO2 emissions will grow despite of the emission of the whole society reaching the peak. Under the ELC scenario, carbon emission of China's building sector is expected to peak in 2027 at around 780 million tons, and return to an annual emission of 615 million tons in 2050, which is below the 2013 emission level. Application of energy efficient technologies and new energies will contribute 33.4% and 66.6% of the cumulative emission reduction respectively. Heating in the northern urban areas is the most important mitigation subsector. Compared to BAU, the additional investment under the ELC scenario required to achieve this low carbon development pathway will be RMB 269.4 billion, not exceeding 0.26‰ of GDP in all time periods. Therefore, China's building sector is able to embark on a technologically viable and economically acceptable low carbon transformation pathway.
This article discusses the trends of future driving factors and energy service demands of China's building sector in the context of urbanization. Three scenarios——business as usual(BAU), nationally determined contribution(NDC), and enhanced low carbon(ELC) ——were set in a bottom-up energy system model of building sector(Programme of Energy and Climate Economics(PECE-Building)). The model was used to analyze the energy demand and carbon emission trends of China's building sector under different development pathways during 2013-2050, and to assess the technology roadmap and investment needs to achieve the sector's mediumand long-term low carbon development goals. The results show that the energy service demand of China's building sector will grow rapidly due to the urbanization process and income growth. The sector will become an important source of China's future energy consumption and carbon emissions growth. Under the BAU scenario, the energy consumption and CO2 emissions of the building sector will increase by 142.8% and 103.1% in 2050 compared with 2013. Under the NDC scenario, the building sector's CO2 emissions will grow despite of the emission of the whole society reaching the peak. Under the ELC scenario, carbon emission of China's building sector is expected to peak in 2027 at around 780 million tons, and return to an annual emission of 615 million tons in 2050, which is below the 2013 emission level. Application of energy efficient technologies and new energies will contribute 33.4% and 66.6% of the cumulative emission reduction respectively. Heating in the northern urban areas is the most important mitigation subsector. Compared to BAU, the additional investment under the ELC scenario required to achieve this low carbon development pathway will be RMB 269.4 billion, not exceeding 0.26‰ of GDP in all time periods. Therefore, China's building sector is able to embark on a technologically viable and economically acceptable low carbon transformation pathway.
引文
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[13]Xiao H,Wei Q P,Wang H L.Marginal abatement cost and carbon reduction potential outlook of key energy efficiency tech-nologies in China’s building sector to 2030[J].Energy Policy,2014,69:92-105.
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[32]住建部和国家质检总局.《建筑能耗标准》征求意见稿[EB/OL].(2016-04-15)[2016-12-27].https://max.book118.com/html/2014/0414/7655796.shtm.[Ministry of Housing and Construction and the General Administration of Quality Supervision,Inspection and Quarantine.“Building Energy Standards”Exposure Draft[EB/OL].(2016-04-15)[2016-12-27].https://max.book118.com/html/2014/0414/7655796.shtm.]
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1)按照国际通行的能源系统部门划分标准和能耗概念,建筑部门能耗指建筑运行能耗,而非建筑建造过程中的能耗。建筑运行能耗指建筑内运行设备的能源消耗,例如灯具、空调、电梯等电器[3]。本文采用这一国际惯例。
2）京东网站. [2016-06-02]. https://www.jd.com/; 天猫电器城网站.[2016-06-02]. https://3c.tmall.com/
3）2013 年不变价，下同
4）本文中累计减排量是指在 2013—2050 年间相比 BAU 情景累计排放量的差。
[2]Lucon O,ürge-Vorsatz D,Zain Ahmed A,et al.Buildings[A].IPCC.Climate Change 2014:Mitigation of Climate Change.Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[M].Cambridge and New York:Cambridge University Press,2014.
[3]邹骥,王克,等.中国城市温室气体排放清单[M].北京:中国环境出版社,2013.[Zou J,Wang K,et al.China Urban Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventory[M].Beijing:China Environmental Science Press,2013.]
[4]刘俊伶.中国中长期低碳发展战略目标与实现路径研究[D].北京:中国人民大学,2017.[Liu J L.Research on China’s Mid and Long Term Low Carbon Development Strategic Goals and Roadmap[D].Beijing:Renmin University of China,2017.]
[5]International Energy Agency.Transition to Sustainable Buildings:Strategies and Opportunities to 2050[EB/OL].(2013-06-27)[2018-08-02].https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/transition-to-sustainable-buildings_5k44zbqfgk34.pdf?itemId=%2Fcontent%2Fpublication%2F9789264202955-en&mimeType=pdf.
[6]王怡.我国建筑业碳排放灰色斜率关联及情景预测研究[J].石家庄经济学院学报,2013,36(3):53-59.[Wang Y.Grey slope correlation and scenario prediction of carbon emissions in China’s building industry[J].Journal of Shijiazhuang University of Economics,2013,36(3):53-59.]
[7]何长全,刘兰,段宗志,等.建筑业碳排放与经济增长关系研究:基于“脱钩”理论视角[J].建筑经济,2016,37(1):97-99.[He C Q,Liu L,Duan Z Z,et al.Research on the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth in construction industry:Based on the theory of“decoupling”[J].Construction Economics,2016,37(1):97-99.]
[8]Lin B Q,Liu H X.CO2emissions of China’s commercial and residential buildings:Evidence and reduction policy[J].Building and Environment,2015,92:418-431.
[9]祁神军,张云波.中国建筑业碳排放的影响因素分解及减排策略研究[J].软科学,2013,27(6):39-43.[Qi S J,Zhang Y B.Research on the influencing factors and reduction strategies of carbon emission of construction industry in China[J].Soft Science,2013,27(6):39-43.]
[10]Shi J C,Chen W Y,Yin X.Modeling building’s decarbonization with application of China TIMES model[J].Applied Energy,2016,162:1303-1312.
[11]纪建悦,姜兴坤.中国建筑业碳排放预测研究[J].中国海洋大学学报(社会科学版),2012,(1):53-57.[Ji J Y,Jiang X K.Research on carbon emission prediction in China's construction industry[J].Journal of Ocean University of China(Social Science Edition),2012,(1):53-57.]
[12]Tan X C,Lai H P,Gu B H,et al.Carbon emission and abatement potential outlook in China’s building sector through 2050[J].Energy Policy,2018,118:429-439.
[13]Xiao H,Wei Q P,Wang H L.Marginal abatement cost and carbon reduction potential outlook of key energy efficiency tech-nologies in China’s building sector to 2030[J].Energy Policy,2014,69:92-105.
[14]Yang T,Pan Y Q,Yang Y K,et al.CO2emissions in China’s building sector through 2050:A scenario analysis based on a bottom-up model[J].Energy,2017,128:208-223.
[15]清华大学建筑节能研究中心.中国建筑节能年度发展研究报告2008-2016[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2008-2016.[Tsinghua University Building Energy Conservation Research Center.China Building Energy Efficiency Annual Development Research Report 2008-2016[M].Beijing:China Architecture&Building Press,2008-2016.]
[16]Heaps C G.Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning(LEAP)System Software Version[EB/OL].(2016-12-20)[2016-12-25].https://www.energycommunity.org.
[17]国家发改委,建设部.建设项目经济评价方法与参数[M].北京:中国计划出版社,2006.[National Development and Re-form Commission,Ministry of Construction.Economic Evaluation Methods and Parameters of Construction Projects[M].Beijing:China Planning Press,2006.]
[18]国家统计局.能源统计年鉴2014-2015[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2015,2016.[National Bureau of Statistics.Energy Statistics Yearbook 2014-2015[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2015,2016.]
[19]住房和城乡建设部.中国城市建设统计年鉴2010-2013[M].北京:中国计划出版社,2011-2014.[Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development.Statistical Yearbook of Urban Construction in China2010-2013[M].Beijing:China Planning Press,2011-2014.]
[20]国家发改委.《国家重点节能技术推广目录》(1-6批)和第7批[EB/OL].(2014-12-17)[2017-01-05].http://hzs.ndrc.gov.cn/newzwxx/201412/t20141217_652539.html.[National Development and Reform Commission.National Key Energy Con-servation Technology Promotion Catalogue”(1-6 Batches)and 7th Batch[EB/OL].(2014-12-17)[2017-01-05].http://hzs.ndrc.gov.cn/newzwxx/201412/t20141217_652539.html.]
[21]中国标准化研究院.中国用能产品能效状况白皮书(2013)[M].北京:中国质检出版社,中国标准出版社,2013.[China National Institute of Standardization.White Paper on Energy Efficiency of Energy Products in China(2013)[M].Beijing:China Quality Inspection Press,China Standard Press,2013.]
[22]United Nations,Department of Economic and Social Affairs,Population Division.World Population Prospects:The 2015 Revision,DVD Edition[R].New York:United Nations,2015.
[23]世界银行.世界银行发展指数数据库[EB/OL].(2017-12-14)[2017-12-15].http://data.worldbank.org/.[World Bank.World Bank Development Index Database[EB/OL].(2017-12-14)[2017-12-15].http://data.worldbank.org/.]
[24]国务院.国家新型城镇化规划(2014-2020年)[EB/OL].(2014-03-16)[2016-12-15].http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/2014-03/16/content_2640075.htm.[State Council.National New Urbanization Plan(2014-2020)[EB/OL].(2014-03-16)[2016-12-15].http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/2014-03/16/content_2640075.htm.]
[25]International Energy Agency.Technology Roadmap Wind Energy[EB/OL].(2015-07-01)[2018-08-10].http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264238831-en.
[26]International Energy Agency.Solar Photovoltaic Energy[EB/OL].(2015-07-01)[2018-08-10].http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264238817-en.
[27]International Energy Agency.Technology Roadmap Solar Thermal Electricity[EB/OL].(2015-07-01)[2018-08-10].http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264238824-en.
[28]International Energy Agency.Geothermal Heat and Power[EB/OL].(2011-06-23)[2018-08-10].http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264118485-en.
[29]赵奉军.住房空置率估计结果与争议[J].中国房地产(市场版),2014,(8):26-28.[Zhao F J.Estimation results and dispute of housing vacancy rate[J].China Real Estate(Market Edition),2014,(8):26-28.]
[30]杨秀.基于能耗数据的中国建筑节能问题研究基于能耗数据的中国建筑节问题研究[D].北京:清华大学,2009.[Yang X.Research on China’s Building Energy Saving Based on Energy Consumption Data[D].Beijing:Tsinghua University,2009.]
[31]胡姗.中国城镇住宅建筑能耗及与发达国家的对比研究[D].北京:清华大学,2013.[Hu S.China’s Urban Residential Building Energy Consumption and Comparison with Developed Countries[D].Beijing:Tsinghua University,2013.]
[32]住建部和国家质检总局.《建筑能耗标准》征求意见稿[EB/OL].(2016-04-15)[2016-12-27].https://max.book118.com/html/2014/0414/7655796.shtm.[Ministry of Housing and Construction and the General Administration of Quality Supervision,Inspection and Quarantine.“Building Energy Standards”Exposure Draft[EB/OL].(2016-04-15)[2016-12-27].https://max.book118.com/html/2014/0414/7655796.shtm.]
[33]国际能源署.世界能源展望:中国特别报告[EB/OL].(2017-12-08)[2018-11-19].https://www.iea.org/weo/china/cn/.[In-ternational Energy Agency.World Energy Outlook:China Special Report[EB/OL].(2017-12-08)[2018-11-19].https://www.iea.org/weo/china/cn/.]
[34]能源研究所.中国低碳建筑情景和政策路线图研究[EB/OL].(2014-07-06)[2018-11-18].http://www.efchina.org/Attachments/Report/reports-20140706-zh/reports-20140706-zh.[Energy Research Institute.Study on China’s Low Carbon Building Scenarios and Policy Roadmap[EB/OL].(2014-07-06)[2018-11-18].http://www.efchina.org/Attachments/Report/reports-20140706-zh/reports-20140706-zh.]
1)按照国际通行的能源系统部门划分标准和能耗概念,建筑部门能耗指建筑运行能耗,而非建筑建造过程中的能耗。建筑运行能耗指建筑内运行设备的能源消耗,例如灯具、空调、电梯等电器[3]。本文采用这一国际惯例。
2）京东网站. [2016-06-02]. https://www.jd.com/; 天猫电器城网站.[2016-06-02]. https://3c.tmall.com/
3）2013 年不变价，下同
4）本文中累计减排量是指在 2013—2050 年间相比 BAU 情景累计排放量的差。
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