营运车辆昼夜运行速度特征及其风险
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摘要
为客观评价营运车辆运行风险性,分析营运车辆昼夜运行速度特征,以速度参数作为行车风险评价指标,运用标准离差-熵权法构建营运车辆昼夜运行风险评价模型。以昆石高速公路营运车辆运行风险评价为实例验证模型的有效性。研究结果表明:昼夜运行速度均服从正偏态分布;营运车辆夜间平均车速高于日间,且昼夜超速比多为5%以下;日间加速度值大于夜间,夜间减速度值及急动度值大于日间。
In order to objectively evaluate the risk in operation of the commercial vehicles, the characteristics of the day and night running speed of the commercial vehicles were analyzed,and a model was built for evaluating the risk in day and night operation of the commercial vehicles,in which the speed parameter was used as the driving risk evaluation index. The model was applied to assessment of risk in operation of commercial vehicles being driven on Kunshi expressway for assessing the effectiveness. The results show that the day and night running speeds obey positive skew distribution,the average night speed of the commercial vehicles is higher than the average daytime speed,the day and night overspeed ratio is more than 5%,the daytime acceleration value is greater than the night acceleration value,and the night deceleration value is greater than that in the daytime.
In order to objectively evaluate the risk in operation of the commercial vehicles, the characteristics of the day and night running speed of the commercial vehicles were analyzed,and a model was built for evaluating the risk in day and night operation of the commercial vehicles,in which the speed parameter was used as the driving risk evaluation index. The model was applied to assessment of risk in operation of commercial vehicles being driven on Kunshi expressway for assessing the effectiveness. The results show that the day and night running speeds obey positive skew distribution,the average night speed of the commercial vehicles is higher than the average daytime speed,the day and night overspeed ratio is more than 5%,the daytime acceleration value is greater than the night acceleration value,and the night deceleration value is greater than that in the daytime.
引文
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[3]CHU Xingzhong.Assessing factors causing severe injuries in crashes of high-deck buses in long-distance driving on freeways[J].Accident Analysis and Prevention,2014,62(5):130-136.
[4]朱守胜.基于事故树分析的营运客车交通安全风险研究[D].西安:长安大学,2016.ZHU Shousheng.Study on the risk of commercial bus traffic safety based on the fault tree analysis[D].Xi'an:Chang'an University,2016.
[5]赵圆.山区农村公路客运车辆交通安全分析和保障技术政策研究[D].重庆:重庆交通大学,2013.ZHAO Yuan.Mountainous rural road passenger vehicle traffic safety analysis and security technology and policy research[D].Chongqing:Chongqing Jiaotong University,2013.
[6]钱宇彬,刘浩学,吴长水,等.夜间长途客车驾驶员操作行为差异性识别研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2014,24(3):9-15.QIAN Yubin,LIU Haoxue,WU Changshui,et al.Study on identification of differential long-distance bus driver's operation behavior at nighttime[J].China Safety Science Journal,2014,24(3):9-15.
[7]张驰,闫晓敏,李小伟,等.互通式立交单车道出口小客车运行速度模型[J].中国公路学报,2017,30(6):279-286.ZHANG Chi,YAN Xiaomin,LI Xiaowei,et al.Operating speed model of passenger car at single-lane exit of interchange[J].China Journal of Highway and Transport,2017,30(6):279-286.
[8]陈学斌.瑞士BFU事故预防中心专项报告摘要:驾驶员不同条件下的车速倾向以及存在的交通事故风险[J].道路交通管理,2007,21(8):45-47.CHEN Xuebin.The summary of the special report of the Swiss BFU Accident Prevention Center:the driver's tendency to speed under different conditions and the risk of traffic accidents[J].Road Traffic Management,2007,21(8):45-47.
[9]GAUDRY M J I.Structural road accident models[J].Pergamon,2000,17(9):225-235.
[10]裴玉龙,程国柱.高速公路运行车速调查与限制车速问题研究[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报,2003,35(2):168-172.PEI Yulong,CHENG Guozhu.Research on operation speed and speed limit for freeways in China[J].Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology,2003,35(2):168-172.
[11]GOLOB T F,RECKER W W,ALVAREZ V M.Freeway safety as a function of traffic flow[J].Accident Analysis and Prevention,2004,36(6):933-946.
[12]ARENDS B J,JONKMAN S N.Evaluation of tunnel safety:towards an economic safety optimum[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2005,90(2/3):217-228.
[13]程国柱,胡立伟,韩娟.高速公路驾驶员昼夜感知速度变化规律[J].东南大学学报;自然科学版,2012,42(3):547-550.CHENG Guozhu,HU Liwei,HAN Juan.Variation rule of driver's perception speed on freeway during daytime and nighttime[J].Journal of Southeast University;Natural Science,2012,42(3):547-550.