多种数值预报及其释用产品在宁夏天气预报业务中的检验评估
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摘要
为提高宁夏气象要素预报的准确率,检验了11类数值预报及其释用产品不同时效的准确率。统计发现:温度预报方面,宁夏气象台的释用产品中,排名靠前的,其准确率均优于中央台指导,最高温度尤其明显,中央台指导的最高温度准确率在11种参考产品中仅排7~9名;最好的宁夏最高温度释用产品,在48 h及以后,比宁夏预报员的准确率还要高,但宁夏预报员的最低温度准确率均略高于各类参考产品;降水预报方面,宁夏预报员的24—168 h晴雨和24—72 h一般性降水的准确率最高,中央台指导的晴雨准确率远高于其他参考产品,一般性降水准确率短期内WRF 9 km和中央台最优,中雨量级准确率则EC插值和T639插值有优势;所有参考产品的准确率均存在明显的季节变化,一年中变化幅度在10%~30%之间。
For improving the prediction accuracy of meteorological elements in Ningxia,the 11 kinds of reference products had been verified,and some conclusions were found. In terms of temperature accuracy,the top accuracy rate of Ningxia's MOS products and integrated products was higher than that of the Central Meteorological Observatory,especially for maximum temperature,and the accuracy of maximum temperature forecasted by the Central Meteorological Observatory ranked seventh to ninth only in all reference products.The best accuracy of Ningxia's maximum temperature products was higher than that of forecasters' after 48 hours and beyond,but the accuracy of forecasters' minimum temperature was slightly higher than those of reference products. In terms of precipitation accuracy,the forecaster's accuracy of shine(rain) for 24-168 hours and general precipitation for 24-72 hours was highest. The forecasted accuracy of shine(rain) from the Central Meteorological Observatory was far higher than those of other reference products. For short-term,the most optimal products for the general precipitation prediction were from WRF 9 km and the Central Meteorological Observatory,and the best products for moderate rain were EC interpolation and T639 interpolation. There was significant seasonal variation for the accuracy of each reference product,and the annual change ranged from 10% to 30%.
For improving the prediction accuracy of meteorological elements in Ningxia,the 11 kinds of reference products had been verified,and some conclusions were found. In terms of temperature accuracy,the top accuracy rate of Ningxia's MOS products and integrated products was higher than that of the Central Meteorological Observatory,especially for maximum temperature,and the accuracy of maximum temperature forecasted by the Central Meteorological Observatory ranked seventh to ninth only in all reference products.The best accuracy of Ningxia's maximum temperature products was higher than that of forecasters' after 48 hours and beyond,but the accuracy of forecasters' minimum temperature was slightly higher than those of reference products. In terms of precipitation accuracy,the forecaster's accuracy of shine(rain) for 24-168 hours and general precipitation for 24-72 hours was highest. The forecasted accuracy of shine(rain) from the Central Meteorological Observatory was far higher than those of other reference products. For short-term,the most optimal products for the general precipitation prediction were from WRF 9 km and the Central Meteorological Observatory,and the best products for moderate rain were EC interpolation and T639 interpolation. There was significant seasonal variation for the accuracy of each reference product,and the annual change ranged from 10% to 30%.
引文
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[14]王丹,黄少妮,高红燕,等.递减平均法对陕西SCMOC精细化温度预报的订正效果[J].干旱气象,2016,34(3):575-583.
[15]马艳,董海鹰,陈尚.WRF中不同湿过程对青岛一次暴雨过程的预报性能检验[J].干旱气象,2016,34(3):494-502.
[16]周虎,纪晓玲,丁建军.数值预报产品在2003年宁夏首场透雨天气过程中的应用分析[J].干旱气象,2004,22(3):32-37.
[17]陈豫英,陈晓光,马金仁,等.基于MM5模式的精细化MOS温度预报[J].干旱气象,2002,23(4):52-56.
[2]庄晓翠,周鸿奎,李博渊.T639模式在新疆北部暖区强降雪中的预报检验[J].干旱气象,2015,33(6):1032-1037.
[3]孙翠梅,沈兴建,马俊峰,等.基于T639数值预报产品的气温本地化应用及检验[J].南京信息工程大学学报(自然科学版),2015,7(4):374-379.
[4]罗聪,孙广凤,李怀宇,等.日极端气温的多模式集成预报及检验[J].广东气象,2015,37(2):7-9.
[5]潘宁,林青.数值模式2014年福建省气象要素预报检验[J].福建气象,2015(1):18-19.
[6]张秉祥,王立荣,杨荣珍,等.数值预报产品对寒潮天气过程的预报能力检验[J].干旱气象,2010,28(1):97-101.
[7]盛春岩,曲巧娜,荣艳敏.山东省2014年冬季数值预报产品检验[J].山东气象,2015,35(1):52-53.
[8]王宇,钟琦.欧洲中期天气预报中心ECMWF2014年预报性能[J].气象科技进展,2015,5(4):68-69.
[9]黄柱坚,何登科.匡方,等.多种细网格模式在长沙定量降水预报中的检验[J].湖南农业科学,2015(3):105-108.
[10]周甘霖,尚可政,王式功,等.应用24 h变量相关系数检验数值预报产品[J].干旱气象,2012,30(3):465-471.
[11]郭金强,王肖娟,张治雄.T639数值预报产品在天山中部一次强降水过程的应用分析[J].干旱气象,2011,29(2):236-239.
[12]刘勇,郭大梅,姚静,等.配料法在暴雨精细化预报中的应用[J].干旱气象,2015,33(3):514-520.
[13]庄晓翠,周鸿奎,李博渊.T639模式在新疆北部暖区强降雪中的预报检验[J].干旱气象,2015,33(6):1031-1037.
[14]王丹,黄少妮,高红燕,等.递减平均法对陕西SCMOC精细化温度预报的订正效果[J].干旱气象,2016,34(3):575-583.
[15]马艳,董海鹰,陈尚.WRF中不同湿过程对青岛一次暴雨过程的预报性能检验[J].干旱气象,2016,34(3):494-502.
[16]周虎,纪晓玲,丁建军.数值预报产品在2003年宁夏首场透雨天气过程中的应用分析[J].干旱气象,2004,22(3):32-37.
[17]陈豫英,陈晓光,马金仁,等.基于MM5模式的精细化MOS温度预报[J].干旱气象,2002,23(4):52-56.