制度环境影响中国高技术产业发展的门槛效应分析
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摘要
使用1998—2015年中国省级面板数据,利用Hansen提出的"门槛估计技术",实证分析不同层面制度环境影响中国高技术产业发展的门槛效应。研究表明:总体制度环境、金融制度环境、法律制度环境、公共服务制度环境对中国高技术产业产出增加或出口增长的影响均存在显著的门槛效应;现阶段,总体制度环境、公共服务制度环境的优化已经成为推动中国高技术产业快速发展的动力来源,而金融制度环境、法律制度环境的优化对中国高技术产业发展的影响十分有限;在供给侧结构性改革的背景下,可以通过针对性的制度环境优化来推动中国高技术产业高质量发展以及制造业强国建设。
Based on the province-level panel data from 1998 to 2015, this study uses Hansen's "threshold estimation technology"(1999) to empirically analyze the impact of institutional environment on the development of China's high-tech industries. The results show that overall institution, financial institution, legal institution and public service institution all exert significant threshold effects on the production or exports of China's high-tech industries. At the current stage, the optimization of overall institution or public service institution have been an internal driving force for promoting the rapid development of China's high-tech industries while the optimization of financial institution or legal institution has a limited impact on the development of China's high-tech industries. Under the background of supply-side structural reform, the improvement of specific institutions does help to promote the high-quality development of China's high-tech industries and the construction of manufacturing power.
Based on the province-level panel data from 1998 to 2015, this study uses Hansen's "threshold estimation technology"(1999) to empirically analyze the impact of institutional environment on the development of China's high-tech industries. The results show that overall institution, financial institution, legal institution and public service institution all exert significant threshold effects on the production or exports of China's high-tech industries. At the current stage, the optimization of overall institution or public service institution have been an internal driving force for promoting the rapid development of China's high-tech industries while the optimization of financial institution or legal institution has a limited impact on the development of China's high-tech industries. Under the background of supply-side structural reform, the improvement of specific institutions does help to promote the high-quality development of China's high-tech industries and the construction of manufacturing power.
引文
[1]黄群慧,贺俊.中国制造业的核心能力、功能定位与发展战略[J].中国工业经济,2015(6):5-17.
[2]吴飞飞,张先锋.本地制度环境对异质性企业对外出口的影响研究[J].产业经济研究,2018(4):40-51.
[3]郑世林,刘和旺.中国政府推动高技术产业化投资效果的实证研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2013,30(7):66-80.
[4]王伟光,马胜利,姜博.高技术产业创新驱动中低技术产业增长的影响因素研究[J].中国工业经济,2015(3):70-82.
[5]陈启斐,张为付,唐保庆.本地服务要素供给与高技术产业出口--来自中国省际细分高技术行业的证据[J].中国工业经济,2017(9):81-99.
[6]吴飞飞,唐保庆,张为付.本地制度环境对出口结构优化的非线性影响--兼论国际贸易新规则下贸易强国建设[J].财经论丛,2019(3):3-10.
[7]沈春苗,郑江淮.制度环境改善与技能偏向性技术进步[J].产业经济研究,2019(1):1-11.
[8]马卫红.外资研发、制度环境与高技术产业自主创新[J].国际商务(对外经济贸易大学学报),2015(4):143-152.
[9]NUNN N,D TREFLER.Domestic institutions as a source of comparative advantage[C].NBER Working Paper No.18851,Cambridge:National Bureau of Economic Research,2013.
[10]RAJAN R G,L ZINGALES.Financial dependence and growth[J].American Economic Review,1998,88(3):559-586.
[11]MANOVA K.Credit constraints,equity market liberalizations and international trade[J].Journal of International Economics,2008,76(1):33-47.
[12]CHANEY T.Liquidity constrained exporters[J].Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,2016,72:141-154.
[13]ACEMOGLU D,P ANSTRA,E HELPMAN.Contracts and technology adoption[J].American Economic Review,2007,97(3):916-943.
[14]SHIRLEY C,C WINSTON.Firm inventory behavior and the returns from highway infrastructure investments[J].Journal of Urban Economics,2004,55(2):398-415.
[15]HANSEN B E.Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels:Estimation,testing,and inference[J].Journal of Econometrics,1999,93(2):345-368.
[16]LEVCHENKO A A.Institutional quality and international trade[J].Review of Economic Studies,2007,74(3):791-819.
[17]CHOR D.Unpacking sources of comparative advantage:Aquantitative approach[J].Journal of International Economics,2010,82(2):152-167.
[18]NORTH D C.Institutions,institutional change and economic performance[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1990.
[19]RODRIK D.Institutions for high quality growth:What they are and how to acquire them[C].NBER Working Papers No.7540,Cambridge:National Bureau of Economic Research,2000.
[20]逯东,朱丽.市场化程度、战略性新兴产业政策与企业创新[J].产业经济研究,2018(2):65-77.
[21]包群,张雅楠.金融发展、比较优势与我国高技术产品出口[J].国际金融研究,2010(11):87-96.
[22]蔡旺春,吴福象,刘琦.研发补贴与中国高技术细分行业出口竞争力比较分析[J].产业经济研究,2018(6):1-9.
[23]张雪兰,彭雅,储蒙.银行集中度的下降促进了产业结构优化吗?--来自101个发展中国家的经验证据[J].中南大学学报(社会科学版),2018,24(4):87-96.
[24]王永进,盛丹,施炳展,等.基础设施如何提升了出口技术复杂度[J].经济研究,2010,45(7):103-115.
[25]杨瑞龙,章逸然,杨继东.制度能缓解社会冲突对企业风险承担的冲击吗[J].经济研究,2017,52(8):140-154.
[26]王小鲁,樊纲,余静文.中国分省份市场化指数报告(2016)[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2017.
[27]张成思,朱越腾.对外开放、金融发展与利益集团困局[J].世界经济,2017,40(4):55-78.
[28]GINARTE J C,W G PARK.Determinants of patent rights:Across-national study[J].Research Policy.1997,26(3):283-301.
[29]韩玉雄,李怀祖.关于中国知识产权保护水平的定量分析[J].科学学研究,2005,23(3):377-382.
[30]盛丹,包群,王永进.基础设施对中国企业出口行为的影响:“集约边际”还是“扩展边际”[J].世界经济,2011,34(1):17-36.
[31]吴飞飞,唐保庆.人口老龄化对中国服务业发展的影响研究[J].中国人口科学,2018(2):103-115.
(1)根据《中国高技术产业统计年鉴》的行业统计分类,高技术产业具体包括医药制造业,航空、航天器及设备制造业,电子及通信设备制造业,计算机及办公设备制造业,医疗仪器设备及仪器仪表制造业,信息化学品制造业。
(2)选择构建单一门槛模型,主要基于如下考虑:单一门槛模型,能够更加清晰地反映制度环境对高技术产业产出和出口的非线性影响机制,也更便于对比分析制度环境影响高技术产业产出和出口的差异性;此外,对更多门槛值进行检验发现,本文的基本结论并未发生明显变化。
[2]吴飞飞,张先锋.本地制度环境对异质性企业对外出口的影响研究[J].产业经济研究,2018(4):40-51.
[3]郑世林,刘和旺.中国政府推动高技术产业化投资效果的实证研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2013,30(7):66-80.
[4]王伟光,马胜利,姜博.高技术产业创新驱动中低技术产业增长的影响因素研究[J].中国工业经济,2015(3):70-82.
[5]陈启斐,张为付,唐保庆.本地服务要素供给与高技术产业出口--来自中国省际细分高技术行业的证据[J].中国工业经济,2017(9):81-99.
[6]吴飞飞,唐保庆,张为付.本地制度环境对出口结构优化的非线性影响--兼论国际贸易新规则下贸易强国建设[J].财经论丛,2019(3):3-10.
[7]沈春苗,郑江淮.制度环境改善与技能偏向性技术进步[J].产业经济研究,2019(1):1-11.
[8]马卫红.外资研发、制度环境与高技术产业自主创新[J].国际商务(对外经济贸易大学学报),2015(4):143-152.
[9]NUNN N,D TREFLER.Domestic institutions as a source of comparative advantage[C].NBER Working Paper No.18851,Cambridge:National Bureau of Economic Research,2013.
[10]RAJAN R G,L ZINGALES.Financial dependence and growth[J].American Economic Review,1998,88(3):559-586.
[11]MANOVA K.Credit constraints,equity market liberalizations and international trade[J].Journal of International Economics,2008,76(1):33-47.
[12]CHANEY T.Liquidity constrained exporters[J].Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,2016,72:141-154.
[13]ACEMOGLU D,P ANSTRA,E HELPMAN.Contracts and technology adoption[J].American Economic Review,2007,97(3):916-943.
[14]SHIRLEY C,C WINSTON.Firm inventory behavior and the returns from highway infrastructure investments[J].Journal of Urban Economics,2004,55(2):398-415.
[15]HANSEN B E.Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels:Estimation,testing,and inference[J].Journal of Econometrics,1999,93(2):345-368.
[16]LEVCHENKO A A.Institutional quality and international trade[J].Review of Economic Studies,2007,74(3):791-819.
[17]CHOR D.Unpacking sources of comparative advantage:Aquantitative approach[J].Journal of International Economics,2010,82(2):152-167.
[18]NORTH D C.Institutions,institutional change and economic performance[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1990.
[19]RODRIK D.Institutions for high quality growth:What they are and how to acquire them[C].NBER Working Papers No.7540,Cambridge:National Bureau of Economic Research,2000.
[20]逯东,朱丽.市场化程度、战略性新兴产业政策与企业创新[J].产业经济研究,2018(2):65-77.
[21]包群,张雅楠.金融发展、比较优势与我国高技术产品出口[J].国际金融研究,2010(11):87-96.
[22]蔡旺春,吴福象,刘琦.研发补贴与中国高技术细分行业出口竞争力比较分析[J].产业经济研究,2018(6):1-9.
[23]张雪兰,彭雅,储蒙.银行集中度的下降促进了产业结构优化吗?--来自101个发展中国家的经验证据[J].中南大学学报(社会科学版),2018,24(4):87-96.
[24]王永进,盛丹,施炳展,等.基础设施如何提升了出口技术复杂度[J].经济研究,2010,45(7):103-115.
[25]杨瑞龙,章逸然,杨继东.制度能缓解社会冲突对企业风险承担的冲击吗[J].经济研究,2017,52(8):140-154.
[26]王小鲁,樊纲,余静文.中国分省份市场化指数报告(2016)[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2017.
[27]张成思,朱越腾.对外开放、金融发展与利益集团困局[J].世界经济,2017,40(4):55-78.
[28]GINARTE J C,W G PARK.Determinants of patent rights:Across-national study[J].Research Policy.1997,26(3):283-301.
[29]韩玉雄,李怀祖.关于中国知识产权保护水平的定量分析[J].科学学研究,2005,23(3):377-382.
[30]盛丹,包群,王永进.基础设施对中国企业出口行为的影响:“集约边际”还是“扩展边际”[J].世界经济,2011,34(1):17-36.
[31]吴飞飞,唐保庆.人口老龄化对中国服务业发展的影响研究[J].中国人口科学,2018(2):103-115.
(1)根据《中国高技术产业统计年鉴》的行业统计分类,高技术产业具体包括医药制造业,航空、航天器及设备制造业,电子及通信设备制造业,计算机及办公设备制造业,医疗仪器设备及仪器仪表制造业,信息化学品制造业。
(2)选择构建单一门槛模型,主要基于如下考虑:单一门槛模型,能够更加清晰地反映制度环境对高技术产业产出和出口的非线性影响机制,也更便于对比分析制度环境影响高技术产业产出和出口的差异性;此外,对更多门槛值进行检验发现,本文的基本结论并未发生明显变化。