基于MaxEnt模型的赛罕乌拉国家级自然保护区斑羚生境适宜性评价
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摘要
【目的】内蒙古赛罕乌拉国家级自然保护区内的中华斑羚是一个孤立的小种群,急需开展救护措施。通过分析该物种在保护区内的适宜生境,为保护区制定物种保护方案提供科学依据。【方法】本文基于GIS技术,结合该保护区内中华斑羚分布位点和生境变量数据,运用MaxEnt模型对斑羚的生境适宜性进行评价分析。【结果】模型的评价结果达到优秀水平(AUC=0. 967),其中月平均昼夜温差、最干月降水量、海拔、距护林站距离、距居民点距离、归一化植被指数对斑羚的分布有重要影响;生境适宜区主要分布在保护区中南部,适宜生境面积为4 891. 23hm2,占研究区域的4. 59%;不考虑干扰因子情况下,适宜区面积可增加12 685. 14 hm2。【结论】斑羚的生境选择可能与斑羚对觅食利益和捕食风险的权衡有关;斑羚对干扰因子具有回避效应,且干扰因子对斑羚适宜生境影响显著,建议控制无关人员进入保护区,以降低人为干扰。模型预测结果初步明确了斑羚在保护区内的分布状况,对保护区制定斑羚保护措施具有重要意义。
[Objective]The Chinese goral in the Inner Mongolia Saihanwula National Nature Reserve of northern China is an isolated population that is in urgent need of ambulance measures. Using habitat assessment can provide a scientific basis for the development of species conservation programs in the reserve. [Method]In this paper,we used geographic information systems( GIS) and the maximum entropy( MaxEnt) model to predict habitat suitability for Naemorhedus griseus in the Saihanwula National Nature Reserve. The accuracy of MaxEnt model was assessed using receiver operating characteristic( ROC) curve analysis method with the data of field occurrence records of N. griseus and environmental factors. [Result]The results revealed that the area value was 0. 967 under ROC curve( AUC) accordingto the model evaluation,approved that the model predication was adequate and excellent. The results also showed that the mean diurnal range,precipitation of driest month,altitude,distance to ranger station,distance to residential and normalized difference vegetation index were the main factors influencing habitat selection of N. griseus. Suitable habitat was mainly distributed in south-central of the nature reserve,with the total area of 4 891. 23 ha,accounting for 4. 59% of the total assessment area. The absence of interference factors increased the suitable habitat of goral by 12 685. 14 ha. [Conclusion]The results of this study indicate that the habitat selection of the goral may be related to the trade-offs between foraging benefits and predation risk. The results also indicate that gorals had avoidance tendency to interference factors in habitat selection. Therefore,it is recommended to control any personal entering into the reserve to reduce human interference. In addition,this study clarifies the actual distribution of the goral in Saihanwula National Nature Reserve and has significant merits for planning management measures to protect this threatened species.
[Objective]The Chinese goral in the Inner Mongolia Saihanwula National Nature Reserve of northern China is an isolated population that is in urgent need of ambulance measures. Using habitat assessment can provide a scientific basis for the development of species conservation programs in the reserve. [Method]In this paper,we used geographic information systems( GIS) and the maximum entropy( MaxEnt) model to predict habitat suitability for Naemorhedus griseus in the Saihanwula National Nature Reserve. The accuracy of MaxEnt model was assessed using receiver operating characteristic( ROC) curve analysis method with the data of field occurrence records of N. griseus and environmental factors. [Result]The results revealed that the area value was 0. 967 under ROC curve( AUC) accordingto the model evaluation,approved that the model predication was adequate and excellent. The results also showed that the mean diurnal range,precipitation of driest month,altitude,distance to ranger station,distance to residential and normalized difference vegetation index were the main factors influencing habitat selection of N. griseus. Suitable habitat was mainly distributed in south-central of the nature reserve,with the total area of 4 891. 23 ha,accounting for 4. 59% of the total assessment area. The absence of interference factors increased the suitable habitat of goral by 12 685. 14 ha. [Conclusion]The results of this study indicate that the habitat selection of the goral may be related to the trade-offs between foraging benefits and predation risk. The results also indicate that gorals had avoidance tendency to interference factors in habitat selection. Therefore,it is recommended to control any personal entering into the reserve to reduce human interference. In addition,this study clarifies the actual distribution of the goral in Saihanwula National Nature Reserve and has significant merits for planning management measures to protect this threatened species.
引文
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[17]张慧,高吉喜,马孟枭,等.基于Max Ent模型的道路对朱鹮繁殖地的影响[J].应用生态学报,2017,28(4):1352-1359.Zhang H,Gao J X,Ma M X,et al. Influence of road on breeding habitat of Nipponia nippon based on Max Ent model[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2017,28(4):1352--1359.
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[21]雍世鹏,邢莲莲,李桂林.赛罕乌拉国家级自然保护区生物多样性编目[M].呼和浩特:内蒙古大学出版社,2011.Yong S P, Xing L L, Li G L. Biodiversity cataloguing at Saihanwula National Nature Reserve[M]. Huhhot:Inner Mongolia University Press,2011.
[22] Phillips S J,Andeson R P,Schapire R E. Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions[J]. Ecological Modelling,2006,190(3):231--259.
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[24]黎运喜,陈佑平,余凌帆,等.基于Max Ent模型的二郎山廊道大熊猫栖息地适宜性评价[J].四川动物,2016,35(6):833--837.Li Y X,Chen Y P,Xu L F,et al. Habitat suitability assessment of Erlangshan giant panda corridor based on Max Ent modeling[J]. Sichuan Journal of Zoology,2016,35(6):833-837.
[25] Wu M L,Zhang Q,Song J Y,et al. Ecological characteristics and suitability evaluation of Fritillaria cirrhosa D. Don based on Maxent model[J]. African Journal of Traditional,Complementary and Alternative Medicines,2018,15(1):158-167.
[26]周海涛,那晓东,臧淑英,等.最大熵(Maxent)模型在物种栖息地研究中的应用[J].环境科学与管理,2016,41(3):149--151.Zhou H T,Na X D,Zang S Y,et al. Applications of maximum entropy(Maxent)model in species habitat study[J].Environmental Science and Management,2016,41(3):149-151.
[27] Brown J L. SDM toolbox:a python-based GIS toolkit for landscape genetic,biogeographic and species distribution model analyses[J]. Methods in Ecology&Evolution,2014,5(7):694-700.
[28] Hu Z,Guo K,Jin S,et al. The influence of climatic changes on distribution pattern of six typical Kobresia species in Tibetan Plateau based on Max Ent model and geographic information system[J/OL]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology,2018[2018-02-25]. https://doi. org/10. 1007/s00704--018--2373--0.
[29] Wen L,Saintilan N,Yang X,et al. MODIS NDVI based metrics improve habitat suitability modelling in fragmented patchy floodplains[J]. Remote Sensing Applications Society&Environment,2015,1:85--97.
[30] Songer M,Delion M,Biggs A,et al. Modeling impacts of climate change on giant panda habitat[J/OL]. International Journal of Ecology,2012[2018--04--22]. https://www. hindawi. com/journals/ijecol/2012/108752/.
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[2]高惠,滕丽微,汪洋,等.阿拉善马鹿(Cervus alashanicus)生境适宜性评价[J].生态学报,2017,37(11):3926--3931.Gao H,Teng L W,Wang Y,et al. Habitat assessment of red deer(Cervus alashanicus)in the Helan Mountains,China[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica,2017,37(11):3926--3931.
[3]蒋志刚.中国哺乳动物多样性及地理分布[M].北京:科学出版社,2015.Jiang Z G. China’s mammal diversity and geographic distribution[M]. Beijing:Science Press,2015.
[4]蒋志刚,江建平,王跃招,等.中国脊椎动物红色名录[J].生物多样性,2016,24(5):500--551.Jiang Z G,Jiang J P,Wang Y Z,et al. Red list of China’s vertebrates[J]. Biodiversity Science,2016,24(5):500--551.
[5]唐书培,姜秀丽,王晓玲,等.内蒙古赛罕乌拉国家级自然保护区中华斑羚的季节性食物构成分析[J].四川动物,2018,37(3):311-316.Tang S P,Jiang X L,Wang X L,et al. Seasonal diet analysis of Naemorhedus griseus in Saihanwula Natioal Nature Reserve[J].Sichuan Journal of Zoology,2018,37(3):311-316.
[6]刘振生,高惠,滕丽微,等.基于MAXENT模型的贺兰山岩羊生境适宜性评价[J].生态学报,2013,33(22):7243--7249.Liu Z S,Gao H,Teng L W,et al. Habitat suitability assessment of blue sheep in Helan Mountain based on MAXENT modeling[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2013,33(22):7243-7249.
[7]林源,徐雪怡,伊剑锋,等.基于Max Ent模型的广西黑颈长尾雉潜在栖息地预测与保护空缺分析[J].四川动物,2017,36(3):328--333.Lin Y, Xu X Y, Yi J F, et al. Potential predation and conservation vacancy analysis of syrmaticus humiae in Guangxi based on Max Ent model[J]. Sichuan Journal of Zoology,2017,36(3):328-333.
[8]陈新美,雷渊才,张雄清,等.样本量对Max Ent模型预测物种分布精度和稳定性的影响[J].林业科学,2012,48(1):53--59.Chen X M,Lei Y C,Zhang X Q,et al. Effects of sample sizes on accuracy and stability of maximum entropy model in predicting species distribution[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae,2012,48(1):53--59.
[9] Kaiboussi M,Achour H. Modelling the spatial distribution of snake species in northwestern Tunisia using maximum entropy(Max Ent)and geographic information system(GIS)[J]. Journal of Forestry Research,2018,29(1):233--45.
[10] Elith J,Graham C H,Anderson R P,et al. Novel methods improve prediction of species'distributions from occurrence data[J]. Ecography,2006,29:129-151.
[11]王运生,谢丙炎,万方浩,等. ROC曲线分析在评价入侵物种分布模型中的应用[J].生物多样性,2007,15(4):365-372.Wang Y S,Xie B Y,Wan F H,et al. Application of ROC curve analysis in evaluating the performance of alien species’potential distribution models[J]. Biodiversity Science,2007,15(4):365--372.
[12]李一琳,丁长青.基于GIS和Max Ent技术对濒危物种褐马鸡的保护空缺分析[J].北京林业大学学报,2016,38(11):34--41.Li Y L,Ding C Q. Reserve gap analysis of endangered brown eared pheasant(Crossoptilon mantchuricum)through GIS and Max Ent technology[J]. Journal of Beijing Forestry University,2016,38(11):34--41.
[13]戎战磊,张晋东,洪明生,等.蜂桶寨自然保护区大熊猫生境适宜性评价与保护管理对策[J].生态学杂志,2015,34(3):621-625.Rong Z L,Zhang J D,Hong M S,et al. Habitat suitability assessment and conservation strategies for giant pandas in Fengtongzhai Nature Reserve[J]. Chinese Journal of Ecology,2015,34(3):621--625.
[14]戎战磊,周宏,韦伟,等.基于MAXENT模型的唐家河自然保护区大熊猫生境适宜性评价[J].兰州大学学报(自然科学版),2017,53(2):269-273.Rong Z L,Zhou H,Wei W,et al. Giant panda habitat suitability assessment in Tangjiahe Nature Reserve based on MAXENT model[J]. Journal of Lanzhou University(Natural Sciences),2017,53(2):269-273.
[15] Bai D F,Chen P J,Atzeni L,et al. Assessment on habitat suitability of snow leopard(Panthera uncia)in Qomolangma National Reserve based on Max Ent modeling[J]. Zoological Research,2018,38(6):1--14.
[16]崔绍朋,罗晓,李春旺,等.基于Max Ent模型预测白唇鹿的潜在分布区[J].生物多样性,2018,26(2):171-176.Cui S P, Luo X, Li C W, et al. Predicting the potential distribution of white-lipped deer using the Max Ent model[J].Biodiversity Science,2018,26(2):171-176.
[17]张慧,高吉喜,马孟枭,等.基于Max Ent模型的道路对朱鹮繁殖地的影响[J].应用生态学报,2017,28(4):1352-1359.Zhang H,Gao J X,Ma M X,et al. Influence of road on breeding habitat of Nipponia nippon based on Max Ent model[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2017,28(4):1352--1359.
[18]周许伟.基于粪样DNA的两个中华斑羚种群保护遗传学初步研究[D].北京:北京林业大学,2015.Zhou X W. Preliminary research on conservation genetics of two Chinese goral populations based on fecal DNA[D]. Beijing:Beijing Forestry University,2015.
[19]李桂林.赛罕乌拉自然保护区志[M].赤峰:内蒙古科学技术出版社,2005.Li G L. Saihanwula Nature Reserveannals[M]. Chifeng:Inner Mongolia Science and Technology Press,2005.
[20]鲍伟东,李桂林,张书理.内蒙古赛罕乌拉国家级自然保护区陆生脊椎动物图谱[M].北京:中国林业出版社,2010.Bao W D,Li G L,Zhang S L. Atlas of terrestrial vertebrate animals at Saihanwula National Nature Reserve of Inner Mongolia[M]. Beijing:China Forestry Publishing House,2010.
[21]雍世鹏,邢莲莲,李桂林.赛罕乌拉国家级自然保护区生物多样性编目[M].呼和浩特:内蒙古大学出版社,2011.Yong S P, Xing L L, Li G L. Biodiversity cataloguing at Saihanwula National Nature Reserve[M]. Huhhot:Inner Mongolia University Press,2011.
[22] Phillips S J,Andeson R P,Schapire R E. Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions[J]. Ecological Modelling,2006,190(3):231--259.
[23]罗翀,徐卫华,周志翔,等.基于生态位模型的秦岭山系林麝生境预测[J].生态学报,2011,31(5):1221-1229.Luo C,Xu W H,Zhou Z X,et al. Habitat prediction for forest musk deer(Moschus berezovskii)in Qinling Mountain Range based on niche model[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica,2011,31(5):1221--1229.
[24]黎运喜,陈佑平,余凌帆,等.基于Max Ent模型的二郎山廊道大熊猫栖息地适宜性评价[J].四川动物,2016,35(6):833--837.Li Y X,Chen Y P,Xu L F,et al. Habitat suitability assessment of Erlangshan giant panda corridor based on Max Ent modeling[J]. Sichuan Journal of Zoology,2016,35(6):833-837.
[25] Wu M L,Zhang Q,Song J Y,et al. Ecological characteristics and suitability evaluation of Fritillaria cirrhosa D. Don based on Maxent model[J]. African Journal of Traditional,Complementary and Alternative Medicines,2018,15(1):158-167.
[26]周海涛,那晓东,臧淑英,等.最大熵(Maxent)模型在物种栖息地研究中的应用[J].环境科学与管理,2016,41(3):149--151.Zhou H T,Na X D,Zang S Y,et al. Applications of maximum entropy(Maxent)model in species habitat study[J].Environmental Science and Management,2016,41(3):149-151.
[27] Brown J L. SDM toolbox:a python-based GIS toolkit for landscape genetic,biogeographic and species distribution model analyses[J]. Methods in Ecology&Evolution,2014,5(7):694-700.
[28] Hu Z,Guo K,Jin S,et al. The influence of climatic changes on distribution pattern of six typical Kobresia species in Tibetan Plateau based on Max Ent model and geographic information system[J/OL]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology,2018[2018-02-25]. https://doi. org/10. 1007/s00704--018--2373--0.
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