基于设备实时健康指数的配电网风险量化评估
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摘要
配电网风险评估中使用的故障率为设备年平均故障率,无法反映所分析配电网设备的实时健康状况及同类设备的差异化。为了解决上述问题,提出了一种基于设备实时健康指数的配电网风险量化评估方法。建立了配电变压器、开关柜、电力电缆、架空线路的健康指数H与设备实时故障率?的量化关系,得到了典型比例系数和曲率系数;计算获得了负荷点故障率和负荷点故障时间,通过综合计算来量化评价了配电网的整体风险。采用IEEE-RBTS BUS6算例对所提方法进行了验证。研究结果表明:该方法以设备健康指数H来综合反映设备状态监测结果,以健康指数H与设备实时故障率?的量化关系、结合配电网网架拓扑的最小路法计算、考虑不同负荷点的停电损失函数来计算各个负荷点损失的配电网风险;可依据在线监测及带电检测结果获得配电网主设备实时故障率,并克服传统方法没有计及配电网设备损坏造成的网架结构薄弱所引发的配电网风险,弥补传统状态评价定性分析的不足。算例结果表明了所提方法可以获得各负荷点的故障率、故障时间、负荷风险,证明了所提出的基于设备实时健康指数的配电网风险量化评估方法的有效性。
The equipment failure rate used in conventional risk assessment of distribution network is the statistical result, thus it is not related with the real-time equipment condition and the difference of the same kind equipment. Consequently, we used the equipment health index to reflect the real-time operation condition of equipment based on its on-line monitoring result. Moreover, we established the relationship between the health index and real-time equipment failure rate of equipment in distribution network, and the equipment included distribution transformer, switchgear, cable, and overhead transmission line. The coefficients of ratio and curvature were gained, and the real-time failure rate of the equipment of the distribution network could be obtained according to the on-line monitoring and live detection results. Then, failure rate and power outage user-hours of load were calculated based on real-time equipment failure rate and net topology with minimum path method, which could overcome the lack of consideration in traditional methods that did not take into account the weakness of the grid structure caused by the damage of the distribution equipment. Thereafter, the quantitative risk assessment of distribution could be achieved with sum of power outage loss at different load point, compensating the deficiency of the qualitative analysis of the traditional state evaluation. Finally, the test results of IEEE-RBTS BUS6 indicate the failure rate, failure time, risk of the load point can be calculated. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
The equipment failure rate used in conventional risk assessment of distribution network is the statistical result, thus it is not related with the real-time equipment condition and the difference of the same kind equipment. Consequently, we used the equipment health index to reflect the real-time operation condition of equipment based on its on-line monitoring result. Moreover, we established the relationship between the health index and real-time equipment failure rate of equipment in distribution network, and the equipment included distribution transformer, switchgear, cable, and overhead transmission line. The coefficients of ratio and curvature were gained, and the real-time failure rate of the equipment of the distribution network could be obtained according to the on-line monitoring and live detection results. Then, failure rate and power outage user-hours of load were calculated based on real-time equipment failure rate and net topology with minimum path method, which could overcome the lack of consideration in traditional methods that did not take into account the weakness of the grid structure caused by the damage of the distribution equipment. Thereafter, the quantitative risk assessment of distribution could be achieved with sum of power outage loss at different load point, compensating the deficiency of the qualitative analysis of the traditional state evaluation. Finally, the test results of IEEE-RBTS BUS6 indicate the failure rate, failure time, risk of the load point can be calculated. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
引文
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[13]李喜桂,常燕,罗运柏,等.基于健康指数的变压器剩余寿命评估[J].高压电器,2012,48(12):80-85.LI Xigui,CHANG Yan,LUO Yunbai,et al.Remnant life estimation of power transformer based on health index[J].High Voltage Apparatus,2012,48(12):80-85.
[14]阮羚,谢齐家,高胜友,等.人工神经网络和信息融合技术在变压器状态评估中的应用[J].高电压技术,2014,40(3):822-828.RUAN Ling,XIE Qijia,GAO Shengyou,et al.Application of artificial neural net-work and information fusion technology in power transformer condition assessment[J].High Voltage Engineering,2014,40(3):822-828.
[15]黄新波,王玉鑫,朱永灿,等.基于遗传算法与模糊逻辑融合的线路覆冰预测[J].高电压技术,2016,42(4):1228-1235.HUANG Xinbo,WANG Yuxin,ZHU Yongcan,et al.Icing forecast of transmission line based on genetic algorithm and fuzzy logic[J].High Voltage Engineering,2016,42(4):1228-1235.
[16]张友强,寇凌峰,盛万兴,等.配电变压器运行状态评估的大数据分析方法[J].电网技术,2016,40(3):768-773.ZHANG Youqiang,KOU Lingfeng,SHENG Wanxing,et al.Big data analytical method for operating state assessment of distribution transformer[J].Power System Technology,2016,40(3):768-773.
[17]高贺,孙莹,李可军,等.一种新型智能配电网风险评估模型[J].电力自动化设备,2016,36(6):142-147.GAO He,SUN Ying,LI Kejun,et al.Risk as-sessment model of smart distribution grid[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2016,36(6):142-147.
[18]黄曌,汪沨,谭阳红,等.基于健康度和重要度的配电网运行风险评估方法[J].电力自动化设备,2016,36(6):136-141.HUANG Zhao,WANG Feng,TAN Yanghong,et al.Operational risk assessment based on health and importance indexes for distribution network[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2016,36(6):136-141.
[19]王增平,戴志辉.含风力发电的配电网电流保护运行风险评估[J].电力自动化设备,2013,33(6):7-12.WANG Zengping,DAI Zhihui.Operation risk assessment for current protection of distribution network with wind farm[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2013,33(6):7-12.
[20]范云滩,刘剑,李俊娥,等.基于符号动力学的配电网结构风险评估[J].电网技术,2013,37(5):1244-1251.FAN Yuntan,LIU Jian,LI Jun’e,et al.Symbolic dynamics based risk assessment of distribution network structure[J].Power System Technology,2013,37(5):1244-1251.
[21]黄弦超,舒隽,张粒子,等.免疫禁忌混合智能优化算法在配电网检修优化中的应用[J].中国电机工程学报,2004,24(11):98-102.HUANG Xianchao,SHU Jun,ZHANG Lizi,et al.Distribution maintenance scheduling using an intelligent optimal approach mixed with immune algorithm and tabu search[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2004,24(11):98-102.
[22]李黎,张登,谢龙君,等.采用关联规则综合分析和变权重系数的电力变压器状态评估方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2013,33(24):152-159,122.LI Li,ZHANG Deng,XIE Longjun,et al.A condition assessment method of power transformers based on association rules and variable weight coefficients[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2013,33(24):152-159,122.
[23]刘文颖,谢昶,文晶,等.基于小生境多目标粒子群算法的输电网检修计划优化[J].中国电机工程学报,2013,33(4):141-148,119.LIU Wenying,XIE Chang,WEN Jing,et al.Optimization of transmission network maintenance scheduling based on niche multi-objective particle swarm algorithm[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2013,33(4):141-148,119.
[2]唐志国,李成榕,黄兴泉,等.基于辐射电磁波检测的电力变压器局部放电定位研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2006,26(3):96-101.TANG Zhiguo,LI Chengrong,HUANG Xingquan,et al.Study of partial discharge location in power transformer based on the detection of electromagnetic waves[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2006,26(3):96-101.
[3]郭灿新,张丽,钱勇,等.XLPE电力电缆中局部放电检测及定位技术的研究现状[J].高压电器,2009,45(3):56-60.GUO Canxin,ZHANG Li,QIAN Yong,et al.Current status of partial discharge detection and location techniques in XLPE power cable[J].High Voltage Apparatus,2009,45(3):56-60.
[4]司文荣,李军浩,袁鹏,等.气体绝缘组合电器多局部放电源的检测与识别[J].中国电机工程学报,2009,29(16):119-126.SI Wenrong,LI Junhao,YUAN Peng,et al.Detection and identification techniques for multi-PD source in GIS[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2009,29(16):119-126.
[5]孙波,张承慧,孙同景,等.配电架空线路非接触式故障电流测量方法[J].电力系统自动化,2012,36(10):107-112.SUN Bo,ZHANG Chenghui,SUN Tongjing,et al.A new non-contact approach for fault current measurement of non-solidly earthed overhead lines[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2012,36(10):107-112.
[6]李成榕,马国明.光纤布喇格光栅传感器应用于电气设备监测的研究进展[J].中国电机工程学报,2013,33(12):114-122.LI Chengrong,MA Guoming.Research and development of fiber brag grating monitoring in electrical engineering[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2013,33(12):114-122.
[7]AZIS N,ZHOU D,WANG Z D,et al.Operational condition assessment of in-service distribution transformers[C]∥2012 International Conference on Condition Monitoring and Diagnosis(CMD).Bali,Indonesia:IEEE,2012:1156-1159.
[8]ZHOU D,WANG Z,JARMAN P,et al.Data requisites for trans-former statistical lifetime modelling,part II:combination of random and aging-related failures[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery,2014,29(1):154-160.
[9]ZHOU D,WANG Z,LI C.Data requisites for transformer statistical lifetime modelling,partⅠ:aging-related failures[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery,2013,28(3):1750-1757.
[10]廖瑞金,黄飞龙,杨丽君,等.多信息量融合的电力变压器状态评估模型[J].高电压技术,2010,36(6):1455-1460.LIAO Ruijin,HUANG Feilong,YANG Lijun,et al.Condition assessment of power transformer using information fusion[J].High Voltage Engineering,2010,36(6):1455-1460.
[11]张镱议,廖瑞金,杨丽君,等.综合考虑可靠性与经济性的电力变压器检修方案优选[J].电工技术学报,2014,29(11):191-200.ZHANG Yiyi,LIAO Ruijin,YANG Lijun,et al.Maintenance decision making of power transformer by integrated considering reliability and economy[J].Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society,2014,29(11):191-200.
[12]王有元,陈璧君.基于层次分析结构的变压器健康状态与综合寿命评估模型[J].电网技术,2014,38(10):2845-2850.WANG Youyuan,CHEN Bijun.An integrated life estimation model of power transformer based on hierarchical architecture and health index[J].Power System Technology,2014,38(10):2845-2850.
[13]李喜桂,常燕,罗运柏,等.基于健康指数的变压器剩余寿命评估[J].高压电器,2012,48(12):80-85.LI Xigui,CHANG Yan,LUO Yunbai,et al.Remnant life estimation of power transformer based on health index[J].High Voltage Apparatus,2012,48(12):80-85.
[14]阮羚,谢齐家,高胜友,等.人工神经网络和信息融合技术在变压器状态评估中的应用[J].高电压技术,2014,40(3):822-828.RUAN Ling,XIE Qijia,GAO Shengyou,et al.Application of artificial neural net-work and information fusion technology in power transformer condition assessment[J].High Voltage Engineering,2014,40(3):822-828.
[15]黄新波,王玉鑫,朱永灿,等.基于遗传算法与模糊逻辑融合的线路覆冰预测[J].高电压技术,2016,42(4):1228-1235.HUANG Xinbo,WANG Yuxin,ZHU Yongcan,et al.Icing forecast of transmission line based on genetic algorithm and fuzzy logic[J].High Voltage Engineering,2016,42(4):1228-1235.
[16]张友强,寇凌峰,盛万兴,等.配电变压器运行状态评估的大数据分析方法[J].电网技术,2016,40(3):768-773.ZHANG Youqiang,KOU Lingfeng,SHENG Wanxing,et al.Big data analytical method for operating state assessment of distribution transformer[J].Power System Technology,2016,40(3):768-773.
[17]高贺,孙莹,李可军,等.一种新型智能配电网风险评估模型[J].电力自动化设备,2016,36(6):142-147.GAO He,SUN Ying,LI Kejun,et al.Risk as-sessment model of smart distribution grid[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2016,36(6):142-147.
[18]黄曌,汪沨,谭阳红,等.基于健康度和重要度的配电网运行风险评估方法[J].电力自动化设备,2016,36(6):136-141.HUANG Zhao,WANG Feng,TAN Yanghong,et al.Operational risk assessment based on health and importance indexes for distribution network[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2016,36(6):136-141.
[19]王增平,戴志辉.含风力发电的配电网电流保护运行风险评估[J].电力自动化设备,2013,33(6):7-12.WANG Zengping,DAI Zhihui.Operation risk assessment for current protection of distribution network with wind farm[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2013,33(6):7-12.
[20]范云滩,刘剑,李俊娥,等.基于符号动力学的配电网结构风险评估[J].电网技术,2013,37(5):1244-1251.FAN Yuntan,LIU Jian,LI Jun’e,et al.Symbolic dynamics based risk assessment of distribution network structure[J].Power System Technology,2013,37(5):1244-1251.
[21]黄弦超,舒隽,张粒子,等.免疫禁忌混合智能优化算法在配电网检修优化中的应用[J].中国电机工程学报,2004,24(11):98-102.HUANG Xianchao,SHU Jun,ZHANG Lizi,et al.Distribution maintenance scheduling using an intelligent optimal approach mixed with immune algorithm and tabu search[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2004,24(11):98-102.
[22]李黎,张登,谢龙君,等.采用关联规则综合分析和变权重系数的电力变压器状态评估方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2013,33(24):152-159,122.LI Li,ZHANG Deng,XIE Longjun,et al.A condition assessment method of power transformers based on association rules and variable weight coefficients[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2013,33(24):152-159,122.
[23]刘文颖,谢昶,文晶,等.基于小生境多目标粒子群算法的输电网检修计划优化[J].中国电机工程学报,2013,33(4):141-148,119.LIU Wenying,XIE Chang,WEN Jing,et al.Optimization of transmission network maintenance scheduling based on niche multi-objective particle swarm algorithm[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2013,33(4):141-148,119.