2014～2016年间郑州市控制PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)污染的健康效益评估
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摘要
根据郑州市2014～2016年间大气中PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)年平均浓度数值,采用泊松回归相对危险模型,评估了控制PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)污染后所能带来的95%置信区间下的健康效应及健康效益.结果表明,2014～2016年间,PM_(10)浓度达到二级限值后所带来的经济效益(以亿元计,括号中为置信区间,下同)分别为181.8(150.4,211.2)、242.5(202.5,279.4)和206.2(173.3,239.2),分别占郑州市当年生产总值的2.7%、3.3%和2.5%;PM_(2.5)浓度达标后所带来的经济效益分别为178.8(143.7,211.6)、216.5(174.6,255.3)和172.5(137.8,205.5),分别占郑州市当年生产总值的2.6%、3.0%和2.1%.PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)浓度达标后,城镇受益人数高于农村,急性支气管炎减少人数高于其他健康终端,对于慢性支气管炎,成人受益比儿童大,哮喘则相反.慢性支气管炎人数减少带来的健康经济效益最高,其次为哮喘,门诊和住院的健康效益最低.
Based on the annual average concentration values,the health effects and health benefits as well as 95% confidence intervals of PM_(10) and PM_(2.5) pollution control from 2014 to 2016 in Zhengzhou were evaluated by applying the Poisson regression relative risk model. Results showed that the health benefits of PM_(10) pollution control were 18. 18 billion RMB(15. 04,21. 12),24. 25 billion RMB(20. 25,27. 94),and 20. 62 billion RMB(17. 33,23. 92),which accounted for 2. 7%,3. 3%,and 2. 5% of the GDP of Zhengzhou,respectively,in 2014-2016. The health benefits of PM_(2.5) pollution control were 17. 88 billion RMB(14. 37,21. 16),21. 65 billion RMB(17. 46,25. 53),and 17. 25 billion RMB(13. 78,20. 55),which accounted for 2. 6%,3. 0%,and 2. 1% of the GDP of Zhengzhou,respectively,in 2014-2016. After the PM_(10) and PM_(2.5) pollution was controlled,the number of urban beneficiaries was higher than that of rural areas,and acute bronchitis beneficiaries were higher than the beneficiaries of other health end-points. For chronic bronchitis,adults benefited more than children,while the opposite occurred for asthma. In this study,chronic bronchitis had the highest health benefit,followed by asthma,and outpatient and inpatient setting had the lower health benefits.
Based on the annual average concentration values,the health effects and health benefits as well as 95% confidence intervals of PM_(10) and PM_(2.5) pollution control from 2014 to 2016 in Zhengzhou were evaluated by applying the Poisson regression relative risk model. Results showed that the health benefits of PM_(10) pollution control were 18. 18 billion RMB(15. 04,21. 12),24. 25 billion RMB(20. 25,27. 94),and 20. 62 billion RMB(17. 33,23. 92),which accounted for 2. 7%,3. 3%,and 2. 5% of the GDP of Zhengzhou,respectively,in 2014-2016. The health benefits of PM_(2.5) pollution control were 17. 88 billion RMB(14. 37,21. 16),21. 65 billion RMB(17. 46,25. 53),and 17. 25 billion RMB(13. 78,20. 55),which accounted for 2. 6%,3. 0%,and 2. 1% of the GDP of Zhengzhou,respectively,in 2014-2016. After the PM_(10) and PM_(2.5) pollution was controlled,the number of urban beneficiaries was higher than that of rural areas,and acute bronchitis beneficiaries were higher than the beneficiaries of other health end-points. For chronic bronchitis,adults benefited more than children,while the opposite occurred for asthma. In this study,chronic bronchitis had the highest health benefit,followed by asthma,and outpatient and inpatient setting had the lower health benefits.
引文
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[26]谢华,朱天怡,刘美岑,等. ACOS与同期哮喘和COPD患者住院情况调查分析[J].现代生物医学进展,2015,15(32):6279-6282.Xie H,Zhu T Y,Liu M C,et al. Investigation and analysis of hospitalized patients of ACOS with asthma and COPD at the same time[J]. Progress in Modern Biomedicine,2015,15(32):6279-6282.
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[2]刘爱明,杨柳,吴亚玲,等.城市区域大气颗粒物的健康效应研究[J].中国环境监测,2012,28(5):19-23.Liu A M,Yang L,Wu Y L,et al. Research on the health effects of atmospheric particulates in city region[J]. Environmental Monitoring in China,2012,28(5):19-23.
[3]白志鹏,蔡斌彬,董海燕,等.灰霾的健康效应[J].环境污染与防治,2006,28(3):198-201.Bai Z P,Cai B B,Dong H Y,et al. Adverse health effects caused by dust haze-a review[J]. Environmental Pollution and Control,2006,28(3):198-201.
[4]吕铃钥,李洪远.京津冀地区PM10和PM2. 5污染的健康经济学评价[J].南开大学学报(自然科学版),2016,49(1):69-77.LüL Y,Li H Y. Health economic evaluation of PM10and PM2. 5pollution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China[J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium University Nankaiensis,2016,49(1):69-77.
[5]刘帅,宋国君.城市PM2. 5健康损害评估研究[J].环境科学学报,2016,36(4):1468-1476.Liu S,Song G J. Evaluation of PM2. 5's adverse human health effect in cities[J]. Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2016,36(4):1468-1476.
[6]阚海东,陈秉衡,汪宏.上海市城区大气颗粒物污染对居民健康危害的经济学评价[J].中国卫生经济,2004,23(2):8-11.Kan H D,Chen B H,Wang H. Economic assessment of health impact due to particulate air pollution in urban dreas of Shanghai[J]. Chinese Health Economics,2004,23(2):8-11.
[7]黄德生,张世秋.京津冀地区控制PM2. 5污染的健康效益评估[J].中国环境科学,2013,33(1):166-174.Huang D S,Zhang S Q. Health benefit evaluation for PM2. 5pollution control in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China[J].China Environmental Science,2013,33(1):166-174.
[8]魏国茹,史兴民.西安市PM2. 5健康损害价值评估[J].环境科学,2018,39(7):3014-3021.Wei G R,Shi X M. Evaluation the extent of health damage caused by PM2. 5particulate in Xi'an city[J]. Environmental Science,2018,39(7):3014-3021.
[9]李惠娟,周德群,魏永杰.我国城市PM2. 5污染的健康风险及经济损失评价[J].环境科学,2018,39(8):3467-3475.Li H J,Zhou D Q,Wei Y J. An assessment of PM2. 5-related health risks and associated economic losses in Chinese cities[J].Environmental Science,2018,39(8):3467-3475.
[10]河南省环保厅. 2017年河南省环境状况公报[EB/OL].http://www. hnep. gov. cn/hjzl/hjzlbgs/H600406index_1.htm,2018-07-04.
[11]谢旭轩.健康的价值:环境效益评估方法与城市空气污染控制策略[D].北京:北京大学,2011.
[12] Huang D S,Xu J H,Zhang S Q. Valuing the health risks of particulate air pollution in the Pearl River Delta,China[J].Environmental Science&Policy,2012,15(1):38-47.
[13]谢元博,陈娟,李巍.雾霾重污染期间北京居民对高浓度PM2. 5持续暴露的健康风险及其损害价值评估[J].环境科学,2014,35(1):1-8.Xie Y B,Chen J,Li W. An assessment of PM2. 5related Health risks and impaired values of Beijing residents in a consecutive high-level exposure during heavy haze days[J]. Environmental Science,2014,35(1):1-8.
[14] Viscusi W K,Magat W A,Huber J. Pricing environmental health risks:survey assessments of risk-risk and risk-dollar tradeoffs for chronic bronchitis[J]. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,1991,21(1):32-51.
[15]陈晓兰.大气颗粒物造成的健康损害价值评估[D].厦门:厦门大学,2008.Chen X L. Evaluating the health damage costs of atmospheric particulates[D]. Xiamen:Xiamen University,2008.
[16]郑州市统计局.郑州统计年鉴2015[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2015.
[17]郑州市统计局.郑州统计年鉴2016[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2016.
[18]郑州市统计局.郑州统计年鉴2017[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2017.
[19]谢鹏,刘晓云,刘兆荣,等.我国人群大气颗粒物污染暴露-反应关系的研究[J].中国环境科学,2009,29(10):1034-1040.Xie P,Liu X Y,Liu Z Y,et al. Exposure-response functions for health effects of ambient particulate matter pollution applicable for China[J]. China Environmental Science,2009,29(10):1034-1040.
[20]国家卫生计生委统计信息中心. 2013第五次国家卫生服务调查分析报告[M].北京:中国协和医科大学出版社,2015.
[21]国家卫生和计划生育委员会. 2015中国卫生和计划生育统计年鉴[M].北京:中国协和医科大学出版社,2015.
[22]国家卫生和计划生育委员会. 2016中国卫生和计划生育统计年鉴[M].北京:中国协和医科大学出版社,2016.
[23]国家卫生和计划生育委员会. 2017中国卫生和计划生育统计年鉴[M].北京:中国协和医科大学出版社,2017.
[24]刘传合,洪建国,尚云晓,等.中国16城市儿童哮喘患病率20年对比研究[J].中国实用儿科杂志,2015,30(8):596-600.Liu C H,Hong J G,Shang Y X,et al. Comparison of asthma prevalence in children from 16 cities of China in 20 years[J].Chinese Journal of Practical Pediatrics,2015,30(8):596-600.
[25]马倩倩,杨土保.中国城乡成年人群哮喘患病状况及其影响因素[J].中南大学学报(医学版),2017,42(9):1086-1093.Ma Q Q,Yang T B. Prevalence and influential factors for asthma among adults in Chinese[J]. Journal of Central South University(Medical Science),2017,42(9):1086-1093.
[26]谢华,朱天怡,刘美岑,等. ACOS与同期哮喘和COPD患者住院情况调查分析[J].现代生物医学进展,2015,15(32):6279-6282.Xie H,Zhu T Y,Liu M C,et al. Investigation and analysis of hospitalized patients of ACOS with asthma and COPD at the same time[J]. Progress in Modern Biomedicine,2015,15(32):6279-6282.
[27]国家心血管病中心.中国心血管病报告2014[M].北京:中国大百科全书出版社,2015.
[28]国家心血管病中心.中国心血管病报告2015[M].北京:中国大百科全书出版社,2016.
[29]国家心血管病中心.中国心血管病报告2016[M].北京:中国大百科全书出版社,2017.
[30]卫生部统计信息中心. 2008年第四次国家卫生服务调查分析报告[M].北京:中国协和医科大学出版社,2009.
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