中国近年来终端能源需求特征研究——基于能源平衡表数据
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摘要
本文基于能源平衡表数据对经济新常态以来的终端能源消费现状进行了分析与研究,以期为能源系统朝高质量发展转型提供参考依据。研究结果表明:(1)受供给侧结构性改革深入推进及生态环境治理行动不断升级的共同作用,2010—2016年中国生产终端能耗呈现出阶段性企稳的"台阶"特征,且电气化率稳步上升,能源结构持续清洁化。(2)中国建筑终端能耗稳步上升,由2010年的6.26亿tce增加至2016年的9亿tce,其占终端能源消费总量的比重逐步上升至21%,能源结构也呈现逐渐向电力和天然气倾斜的趋势。(3)中国交通终端能耗呈现出快速的上升趋势,年均增速显著高于生产终端能耗及建筑终端能耗,柴油、汽油作为主要交通能源的情况没有变化,占交通终端能耗总量的比重仍然接近3/4。
The paper analyzes the current situation of final energy consumption since the new normal, so as to provide reference for high-quality energy development. Our studies indicate the following:(1) The final energy consumption of production in China rose first and then stabilized from 2010 to 2016, under the influence of the supply-side structural reform and the ecological environment governance. The electrification rate rises steadily, and the energy structure continues to be clean.(2) The final energy consumption of building in China steadily increased, from 626 million tons of coal equivalent in 2010 to 900 million tons of coal equivalent in 2016, and then a gradual inclination towards electricity and natural gas for energy structure.(3) The final energy consumption of transportation in China shows a rapid upward trend. The average growth rate is significantly higher than that of production and building final energy consumption. The diesel and gasoline is the main final energy for transportation, accounting for nearly 3/4 of total final energy consumption of transportation.
The paper analyzes the current situation of final energy consumption since the new normal, so as to provide reference for high-quality energy development. Our studies indicate the following:(1) The final energy consumption of production in China rose first and then stabilized from 2010 to 2016, under the influence of the supply-side structural reform and the ecological environment governance. The electrification rate rises steadily, and the energy structure continues to be clean.(2) The final energy consumption of building in China steadily increased, from 626 million tons of coal equivalent in 2010 to 900 million tons of coal equivalent in 2016, and then a gradual inclination towards electricity and natural gas for energy structure.(3) The final energy consumption of transportation in China shows a rapid upward trend. The average growth rate is significantly higher than that of production and building final energy consumption. The diesel and gasoline is the main final energy for transportation, accounting for nearly 3/4 of total final energy consumption of transportation.
引文
[1]国家统计局.中国能源统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2011-2017.
[2]戴彦德,胡秀莲,等.中国二氧化碳减排技术潜力和成本研究[M].北京:中国环境出版社,2013.
[3]王庆一.中国建筑能耗统计和计算研究[J].节能与环保,2007,(8):9-10.
[4]蔡伟光.中国建筑能耗影响因素分析模型与实证研究[D].重庆大学,2011.
[5]王霞,任宏,蔡伟光,等.中国建筑能耗时间序列变化趋势及其影响因素[J].暖通空调,2017,(11):21-26.
[6]蔡伟光,李晓辉,王霞,等.基于能源平衡表的建筑能耗拆分模型及应用[J].暖通空调,2017,(11):27-34.
[7]尹伟华.经济新常态下我国能源发展形势分析及政策建议[J].中国物价,2017,(6):10-13.
[8]张声远,杨秀,江亿.我国建筑能源消耗现状及其比较[J].中国能源,2008,30(7):37-42.
[9]清华大学建筑节能研究中心.中国建筑节能年度发展研究报告2017[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2017.
[10]仇保兴.我国绿色建筑发展和建筑节能的形势与任务[J].城市发展研究,2012,(5):1-7.
1各行业扣除的汽油和柴油主要用于交通能耗。
2 能源平衡表中建筑热力消费明显偏小,用《中国统计年鉴》中城市集中供热总量进行修正,建筑供暖能耗修正量=城市集中供热总量-建筑热力消费。同时,用第三产业和居民生活热力消费比例分摊到公共建筑能耗和城镇居住建筑能耗。
[2]戴彦德,胡秀莲,等.中国二氧化碳减排技术潜力和成本研究[M].北京:中国环境出版社,2013.
[3]王庆一.中国建筑能耗统计和计算研究[J].节能与环保,2007,(8):9-10.
[4]蔡伟光.中国建筑能耗影响因素分析模型与实证研究[D].重庆大学,2011.
[5]王霞,任宏,蔡伟光,等.中国建筑能耗时间序列变化趋势及其影响因素[J].暖通空调,2017,(11):21-26.
[6]蔡伟光,李晓辉,王霞,等.基于能源平衡表的建筑能耗拆分模型及应用[J].暖通空调,2017,(11):27-34.
[7]尹伟华.经济新常态下我国能源发展形势分析及政策建议[J].中国物价,2017,(6):10-13.
[8]张声远,杨秀,江亿.我国建筑能源消耗现状及其比较[J].中国能源,2008,30(7):37-42.
[9]清华大学建筑节能研究中心.中国建筑节能年度发展研究报告2017[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2017.
[10]仇保兴.我国绿色建筑发展和建筑节能的形势与任务[J].城市发展研究,2012,(5):1-7.
1各行业扣除的汽油和柴油主要用于交通能耗。
2 能源平衡表中建筑热力消费明显偏小,用《中国统计年鉴》中城市集中供热总量进行修正,建筑供暖能耗修正量=城市集中供热总量-建筑热力消费。同时,用第三产业和居民生活热力消费比例分摊到公共建筑能耗和城镇居住建筑能耗。