基于正态云理论的耕地水毁评价研究
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摘要
研究目的:土地损毁是当前中国土地利用中面临的重要问题,水毁作为耕地损毁的一种常见形式,涉及的损毁类型复杂,需要引入新的评价方法与思路。研究方法:以江西省新余市渝水区南安乡水毁耕地为研究对象,基于灰色关联度分析与AHP-熵值法,确定研究区评价水毁耕地的关键性因素与权重;采用正态云理论,对5个典型耕地水毁片区损毁程度进行评价,确定损毁等级。研究结果:(1)土壤有机质含量、土壤容重、砾石含量、有效土层厚度、土壤pH、田面压占率、灌排条件、道路状况为南安乡水灾后影响耕地质量的主导因素;(2)南安乡朝阳村、东洛村、南门村和荆兰村片区一耕地水毁等级为中度,荆兰村片区二耕地水毁等级为轻度。研究结论:正态云理论能够将水毁耕地评价的复杂性、随机性及模糊性等不确定性特征有机结合在一起,降低评价过程中由于单个评价指标所处级别的模糊性而造成的对总体评价结果的影响,提高评价结果的相对稳定性,为耕地水毁程度评价提供了一种新的思路。
The purpose of this paper is to introduce new ideas and methods for the evaluation on flood damage of farmland, in that land damage is an prominent problem of land use in China, which can be divided into four types i.e.,occupation, excavation, pollution and collapse, whereas flood damage is a common form of farmland damage, involving all the above damage types. The research methods are that: the key factors and weights of the evaluation on the damaged farmland are determined by means of grey correlation analysis and the analytic hierarchy process and the entropy method;and then the evaluation index membership for cloud model is generated, and the comprehensive membership degree is determined according to the established evaluation criteria; finally, the damage degree of the five typical damaged area are evaluated by normal cloud model. The results showed that 1)soil organic matter content, soil bulk density, gravel content, effective soil layer thickness, soil pH value, soil surface pressure ratio, irrigation and drainage conditions, road condition are the main factors that affect the quality of farmland after flood; 2)the damage levels of Chaoyang Village,Dongluo Village, Nanmen Village and area 1 of Jinglan Village in Nan'an township are moderate, while that of the farmland in area 2 of Jinglan Village is mild. In conclusion, the normal cloud model can combine the uncertain features such as complexity, randomness and fuzziness in the evaluation of flood damaged farmland, reduce the impacts on the overall evaluation results caused by the fuzziness of a single evaluation index, and therefore improve the relative stability of the evaluation results, providing a new way of thinking for the evaluation on flood damaged farmland. This study can be used as a reference for scientific evaluation on the degree of flood damaged farmland for taking scientific reclamation measures.
The purpose of this paper is to introduce new ideas and methods for the evaluation on flood damage of farmland, in that land damage is an prominent problem of land use in China, which can be divided into four types i.e.,occupation, excavation, pollution and collapse, whereas flood damage is a common form of farmland damage, involving all the above damage types. The research methods are that: the key factors and weights of the evaluation on the damaged farmland are determined by means of grey correlation analysis and the analytic hierarchy process and the entropy method;and then the evaluation index membership for cloud model is generated, and the comprehensive membership degree is determined according to the established evaluation criteria; finally, the damage degree of the five typical damaged area are evaluated by normal cloud model. The results showed that 1)soil organic matter content, soil bulk density, gravel content, effective soil layer thickness, soil pH value, soil surface pressure ratio, irrigation and drainage conditions, road condition are the main factors that affect the quality of farmland after flood; 2)the damage levels of Chaoyang Village,Dongluo Village, Nanmen Village and area 1 of Jinglan Village in Nan'an township are moderate, while that of the farmland in area 2 of Jinglan Village is mild. In conclusion, the normal cloud model can combine the uncertain features such as complexity, randomness and fuzziness in the evaluation of flood damaged farmland, reduce the impacts on the overall evaluation results caused by the fuzziness of a single evaluation index, and therefore improve the relative stability of the evaluation results, providing a new way of thinking for the evaluation on flood damaged farmland. This study can be used as a reference for scientific evaluation on the degree of flood damaged farmland for taking scientific reclamation measures.
引文
[1]国家统计局.中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展统计公报[EB/OL].(2018-05-04)[2018-10-16]. http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/zxfb/201802/t20180228_1585631.html.
[2]BEHZAD JAMALI, ROLAND L WE, PETER M BACH, et al. A rapid urban flood inundation and damage assessment model[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2018, 564:1085-1098.
[3]BALQIS M REHAN. Accounting public and individual flood protection measures in damage assessment:a novel approach for quantitative assessment of vulnerability and flood risk associated with local engineering adaptation options[J].Journal of Hydrology, 2018:836-873.
[4]冯平,王仲珏,刘增明.长距离输水工程综合水毁风险的估算方法及其应用[J].水利学报,2007(11):1388-1392.
[5]崔伯恩,凌建明,赵鸿铎,等.公路水毁毁损等级划分体系研究[J].同济大学学报(自然科学版),2006(9):1180-1184.
[6]金佳旭,许彬,董天文,等.山区公路桥梁结合部位水毁防治试验研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2017(8):108-113.
[7]孙华,季余佳,吴群,等.无锡市耕地毁坏综合鉴定案例研究[J].中国土地科学,2017,31(1):48-54.
[8]李烈干,韦华周.规范鉴定标准·惩处破坏行为——解读《广西壮族自治区耕地破坏损毁鉴定办法》[J].南方国土资源,2013(7):25-26.
[9]SHUKLA, M K, LAL R, UNDERWOOD, J, et al. Physical and hydrological characteristics of reclaimed minesoils in southeastern Ohio[J]. Soil Science Society of America Journal,2004, 68(4):152-161.
[10]QIAN ZHANG, TRACY BRANAM, GREG OLYPHAN.Development and testing of a model for simulating weathering and trace elements release from fixated scrubber sludge utilized in abandoned coal mine reclamation site[J].International Journal of Coal Geology, 2017, 169:92-105.
[11]李晶,刘喜韬,胡振琪,等.高潜水位平原采煤沉陷区耕地损毁程度评价[J].农业工程学报,2014(10):209-216.
[12]王世东,刘毅.基于改进模糊综合评价模型的矿区土地损毁程度评价[J].中国生态农业学报,2015(9):1191-1198.
[13]郭绍英,林皓,谢妤,等.基于改进灰色聚类法的矿区土壤重金属污染评价[J].环境工程,2017(10):146-150.
[14]2017年中国水旱灾害公报[R].中华人民共和国水利部公报,2018(1):78.
[15]ZHENQI HU, GUANGHUA YANG, WU XIAO, et al.Farmland damage and its impact on the overlapped areas of cropland and coal resources in the eastern plains of China[J].Resources, Conservation&Recycling, 2014, 86:1-8.
[16]李德毅,刘常昱.论正态云模型的普适性[J].中国工程科学,2004(8):28-34.
[17]李德毅,刘常昱,杜鹢,等.不确定性人工智能[J].软件学报,2004(11):1583-1594.
[18]黎育红,陈玥.基于灰云白化权函数的洪水灾害综合等级评估[J].自然灾害学报,2013,22(1):108-114.
[19]叶达,吴克宁,刘霈珈.基于正态云模型与熵权法的景泰县耕地后备资源开发潜力评价[J].中国农业资源与区划,2016,37(6):22-28.
[20]杨建宇,欧聪,李琪,等.基于云模型的耕地土壤养分模糊综合评价[J].农业机械学报,2018,49(1):251-257.
[21]ABDULWADOOD MOOMEN. Strategies for managing largescale mining sector land use conflicts in the global south[J].Resources Policy, 2017, 51:85-93
[22]江西省土地利用管理局,江西省土壤普查办公室.江西土壤[M].北京:中国农业科技出版社,1991:316-323.
[23]朱海娣,尹国庆,毛雪,等.耕地损毁鉴定指标体系研究[J].中国农学通报,2017(2):73-79.
[24]GB/T 28407—2012.农用地质量分等规程[S].
[25]NY/T 2148—2012.高标准农田建设标准[S].
[26]程琳琳,董雪梅,付亚洁,等.兖州矿区土地破坏主导影响因子筛选及其作用机理[J].工业安全与环保,2017(11):89-93.
[27]NY/T 1634—2008.耕地地力调查与质量评价技术规程[S].
[28]TD/T 1036—2013.土地复垦质量控制标准[S].
[2]BEHZAD JAMALI, ROLAND L WE, PETER M BACH, et al. A rapid urban flood inundation and damage assessment model[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2018, 564:1085-1098.
[3]BALQIS M REHAN. Accounting public and individual flood protection measures in damage assessment:a novel approach for quantitative assessment of vulnerability and flood risk associated with local engineering adaptation options[J].Journal of Hydrology, 2018:836-873.
[4]冯平,王仲珏,刘增明.长距离输水工程综合水毁风险的估算方法及其应用[J].水利学报,2007(11):1388-1392.
[5]崔伯恩,凌建明,赵鸿铎,等.公路水毁毁损等级划分体系研究[J].同济大学学报(自然科学版),2006(9):1180-1184.
[6]金佳旭,许彬,董天文,等.山区公路桥梁结合部位水毁防治试验研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2017(8):108-113.
[7]孙华,季余佳,吴群,等.无锡市耕地毁坏综合鉴定案例研究[J].中国土地科学,2017,31(1):48-54.
[8]李烈干,韦华周.规范鉴定标准·惩处破坏行为——解读《广西壮族自治区耕地破坏损毁鉴定办法》[J].南方国土资源,2013(7):25-26.
[9]SHUKLA, M K, LAL R, UNDERWOOD, J, et al. Physical and hydrological characteristics of reclaimed minesoils in southeastern Ohio[J]. Soil Science Society of America Journal,2004, 68(4):152-161.
[10]QIAN ZHANG, TRACY BRANAM, GREG OLYPHAN.Development and testing of a model for simulating weathering and trace elements release from fixated scrubber sludge utilized in abandoned coal mine reclamation site[J].International Journal of Coal Geology, 2017, 169:92-105.
[11]李晶,刘喜韬,胡振琪,等.高潜水位平原采煤沉陷区耕地损毁程度评价[J].农业工程学报,2014(10):209-216.
[12]王世东,刘毅.基于改进模糊综合评价模型的矿区土地损毁程度评价[J].中国生态农业学报,2015(9):1191-1198.
[13]郭绍英,林皓,谢妤,等.基于改进灰色聚类法的矿区土壤重金属污染评价[J].环境工程,2017(10):146-150.
[14]2017年中国水旱灾害公报[R].中华人民共和国水利部公报,2018(1):78.
[15]ZHENQI HU, GUANGHUA YANG, WU XIAO, et al.Farmland damage and its impact on the overlapped areas of cropland and coal resources in the eastern plains of China[J].Resources, Conservation&Recycling, 2014, 86:1-8.
[16]李德毅,刘常昱.论正态云模型的普适性[J].中国工程科学,2004(8):28-34.
[17]李德毅,刘常昱,杜鹢,等.不确定性人工智能[J].软件学报,2004(11):1583-1594.
[18]黎育红,陈玥.基于灰云白化权函数的洪水灾害综合等级评估[J].自然灾害学报,2013,22(1):108-114.
[19]叶达,吴克宁,刘霈珈.基于正态云模型与熵权法的景泰县耕地后备资源开发潜力评价[J].中国农业资源与区划,2016,37(6):22-28.
[20]杨建宇,欧聪,李琪,等.基于云模型的耕地土壤养分模糊综合评价[J].农业机械学报,2018,49(1):251-257.
[21]ABDULWADOOD MOOMEN. Strategies for managing largescale mining sector land use conflicts in the global south[J].Resources Policy, 2017, 51:85-93
[22]江西省土地利用管理局,江西省土壤普查办公室.江西土壤[M].北京:中国农业科技出版社,1991:316-323.
[23]朱海娣,尹国庆,毛雪,等.耕地损毁鉴定指标体系研究[J].中国农学通报,2017(2):73-79.
[24]GB/T 28407—2012.农用地质量分等规程[S].
[25]NY/T 2148—2012.高标准农田建设标准[S].
[26]程琳琳,董雪梅,付亚洁,等.兖州矿区土地破坏主导影响因子筛选及其作用机理[J].工业安全与环保,2017(11):89-93.
[27]NY/T 1634—2008.耕地地力调查与质量评价技术规程[S].
[28]TD/T 1036—2013.土地复垦质量控制标准[S].