特朗普政府的朝核政策:目标、手段与困境
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摘要
特朗普政府对朝鲜执行"极限施压"政策,它通过全方位制裁给朝鲜施加经济压力,并通过军事威慑施加安全压力,且不断提升其强度。该政策的目标呈现出层次性,其基本目标是把朝鲜拉回到谈判桌,其根本目标是以和平方式实现朝鲜全面的、可核查的、不可逆转的弃核,其终极目标是维护美国及其盟国的安全。由于朝鲜财力和外交空间有限,该政策将抑制朝鲜的核导开发并将朝鲜拉回到谈判桌上。然而,它难以实现朝鲜弃核的根本目标,究其原因是该政策的目标与手段之间存在冲突,美国的全球战略与地区战略相矛盾,"美国优先"的外交原则与美国的安全战略相抵触。为了解决朝核问题,美国必须调整其朝核政策,同时,国际社会也应当积极参与构建东北亚均衡而持久的和平机制。
The Trump Administration implements "Maximum Pressure"policy towards DPRK by continuously imposing economic and military pressures through comprehensive sanctions and deterrence.The policy contains a variety of goals:the basic goal is to pull DPRK back to the negotiating table,the fundamental is to achieve the complete,verifiable and irreversible denuclearization of DPRK by peaceful means,and the ultimate is to safeguard the security of the USA and its allies.Due to DPRK's limited financial resources and diplomatic potential,the policy would undoubtedly inhibit DPRK's nuclear development and restart the negotiation.However,conflicts between the approaches and goals of the policy,the contradictions between USA global and regional strategies,and the clashes between the diplomatic principle of "America First" and USA's security strategy have made it a tough job to achieve the fundamental goal.In order to solve the Korean nuclear issue,USA ought to adjust its policy to DPRK,and meanwhile the international community should dynamically participate in the construction of a balanced and perpetual peace mechanism in Northeast Asia.
The Trump Administration implements "Maximum Pressure"policy towards DPRK by continuously imposing economic and military pressures through comprehensive sanctions and deterrence.The policy contains a variety of goals:the basic goal is to pull DPRK back to the negotiating table,the fundamental is to achieve the complete,verifiable and irreversible denuclearization of DPRK by peaceful means,and the ultimate is to safeguard the security of the USA and its allies.Due to DPRK's limited financial resources and diplomatic potential,the policy would undoubtedly inhibit DPRK's nuclear development and restart the negotiation.However,conflicts between the approaches and goals of the policy,the contradictions between USA global and regional strategies,and the clashes between the diplomatic principle of "America First" and USA's security strategy have made it a tough job to achieve the fundamental goal.In order to solve the Korean nuclear issue,USA ought to adjust its policy to DPRK,and meanwhile the international community should dynamically participate in the construction of a balanced and perpetual peace mechanism in Northeast Asia.
引文
[1]Susan A.Thornton,“Testimony Before the House of Foreign Affairs Committee”,https://www.state.gov/p/eap/rls/rm/2017/09/274003.htm.
[2]“Trump calls North Korea a ‘big problem’,vows to deal with Pyongyang ‘strongly’”,http://en.apa.az/worldnews/america-news/trump-calls-north-korea-a-big-problem-vows-to-deal-with-pyongyang-strongly.html.
[3]杨宁、李轶豪:《美国新任防长马蒂斯首次出访赴韩国日本》,http://newsxmwb.xinmin.cn/world/2017/02/03/30804029.html。
[4]“U.S.ROK Japan Foreign Ministerial Joint Statement on the Situation in North Korea”,https://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2017/02/268053.htm.
[5]“American First Foreign Policy”,https://www.whitehouse.gov/america-first-foreign-policy.
[6]“Remarks With Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se Before Their Meeting,Remarks Rex W.Tillerson Secretary of State,Seoul,Republic of Korea”,http:www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2017/03/268501.htm.
[7]“Joint Statement by Secretary of State Rex Tillerson,Secretary of Defense James Mattis,Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats”,https://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2017/04/270464.htm.
[8][韩]统一部:《南北关系大事记》,http://www.unikorea.go.kr/cn_unikorea/information/relation/event/,2018年10月28日。
[9]林今淑、金美花:《评估安理会制裁对朝鲜经济的影响》,《现代国际关系》2016年第5期,第17页。
[10]“Treasury Sanctions Agents Linked to North Korea's Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Financial Networks”,https://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/sm0039.aspx.
[11]李圣华、朴银哲:《国际制裁对朝鲜经济的影响分析》,《延边大学学报》(社会科学版)2017年第5期,第26页。
[12]“Treasury Sanctions Banks and Representatives Linked to North Korean Financial Networks”,https://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/sm0165.aspx.
[13]莽九晨等:《美韩开启最高强度联合军演美防长表示将坚定不移协防韩国》,http://world.huanqiu.com/exclusive/2017-03/10231660.html。
[14]陈小茹:《美韩联合军演为何偏偏选在此时?揭开“乙支自由卫士”面纱》,http://news.cyol.com/content/2017-08/24/content_16429979.htm。
[15]《韩美空中军演规模创历史新高半岛战争一触即发?》,http://m.news.cctv.com/2017/12/05/ARTIA1fFTdwvLiBK5Bl1jyuu171205.shtml。
[16]《美军3架F-35抵岩国基地,16架战机在日部署完成》,http://news.china.com/internationalgd/10000166/20171116/31672381.html。
[17]袁学哲、范志轩:《朝鲜半岛局势新变化与中国的战略应对》,《延边大学学报》(社会科学版)2018年第4期,第15-16页。
[18]刘军:《北约增加军费开支》,http://news.gmw.cn/2017-06/30/content_24937210.htm。
[19]“United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement”,https://ustr.gov/trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements/united-states-mexico-canada-agreement/united-states-mexico.
[20]“National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2018---Report of the Committee on Armed Services House of Representatives on H.R.2810together with Additional Views”,https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CRPT-115hrpt200/pdf/CRPT-115hrpt200.pdf.
[21]“H.R.535,Taiwan Travel Act”,https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/BILLS-115hr535enr/pdf/BILLS-115hr535enr.pdf.
(1)联合国安理会2371号、2375号和2397号决议的内容参见联合国官网:http://www.un.org/en/ga/search/view_doc.asp?。
(1)中俄在联合国大会上提出启动“可逆条款”以放松对朝制裁,而美方强调要维持原有制裁。同时,美韩在“5.24制裁”的解除以及“禁飞区”的设立等方面的分歧已显露无遗。
[2]“Trump calls North Korea a ‘big problem’,vows to deal with Pyongyang ‘strongly’”,http://en.apa.az/worldnews/america-news/trump-calls-north-korea-a-big-problem-vows-to-deal-with-pyongyang-strongly.html.
[3]杨宁、李轶豪:《美国新任防长马蒂斯首次出访赴韩国日本》,http://newsxmwb.xinmin.cn/world/2017/02/03/30804029.html。
[4]“U.S.ROK Japan Foreign Ministerial Joint Statement on the Situation in North Korea”,https://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2017/02/268053.htm.
[5]“American First Foreign Policy”,https://www.whitehouse.gov/america-first-foreign-policy.
[6]“Remarks With Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se Before Their Meeting,Remarks Rex W.Tillerson Secretary of State,Seoul,Republic of Korea”,http:www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2017/03/268501.htm.
[7]“Joint Statement by Secretary of State Rex Tillerson,Secretary of Defense James Mattis,Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats”,https://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2017/04/270464.htm.
[8][韩]统一部:《南北关系大事记》,http://www.unikorea.go.kr/cn_unikorea/information/relation/event/,2018年10月28日。
[9]林今淑、金美花:《评估安理会制裁对朝鲜经济的影响》,《现代国际关系》2016年第5期,第17页。
[10]“Treasury Sanctions Agents Linked to North Korea's Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Financial Networks”,https://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/sm0039.aspx.
[11]李圣华、朴银哲:《国际制裁对朝鲜经济的影响分析》,《延边大学学报》(社会科学版)2017年第5期,第26页。
[12]“Treasury Sanctions Banks and Representatives Linked to North Korean Financial Networks”,https://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/sm0165.aspx.
[13]莽九晨等:《美韩开启最高强度联合军演美防长表示将坚定不移协防韩国》,http://world.huanqiu.com/exclusive/2017-03/10231660.html。
[14]陈小茹:《美韩联合军演为何偏偏选在此时?揭开“乙支自由卫士”面纱》,http://news.cyol.com/content/2017-08/24/content_16429979.htm。
[15]《韩美空中军演规模创历史新高半岛战争一触即发?》,http://m.news.cctv.com/2017/12/05/ARTIA1fFTdwvLiBK5Bl1jyuu171205.shtml。
[16]《美军3架F-35抵岩国基地,16架战机在日部署完成》,http://news.china.com/internationalgd/10000166/20171116/31672381.html。
[17]袁学哲、范志轩:《朝鲜半岛局势新变化与中国的战略应对》,《延边大学学报》(社会科学版)2018年第4期,第15-16页。
[18]刘军:《北约增加军费开支》,http://news.gmw.cn/2017-06/30/content_24937210.htm。
[19]“United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement”,https://ustr.gov/trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements/united-states-mexico-canada-agreement/united-states-mexico.
[20]“National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2018---Report of the Committee on Armed Services House of Representatives on H.R.2810together with Additional Views”,https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CRPT-115hrpt200/pdf/CRPT-115hrpt200.pdf.
[21]“H.R.535,Taiwan Travel Act”,https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/BILLS-115hr535enr/pdf/BILLS-115hr535enr.pdf.
(1)联合国安理会2371号、2375号和2397号决议的内容参见联合国官网:http://www.un.org/en/ga/search/view_doc.asp?。
(1)中俄在联合国大会上提出启动“可逆条款”以放松对朝制裁,而美方强调要维持原有制裁。同时,美韩在“5.24制裁”的解除以及“禁飞区”的设立等方面的分歧已显露无遗。