区域差异下农业用水效率对农业用水量的影响
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摘要
基于全国30个省份1998~2015年面板数据,采用Super-SBM模型测算农业用水效率,并在观察农业用水量、农业用水效率动静态演进特征的基础上,利用门槛面板回归模型探究农业用水效率对农业用水量的影响。结果表明,全国农业用水量和农业用水效率均呈阶段性下降。农业用水效率对降低农业用水量具有显著的门槛效应,提高农业用水效率是降低农业用水量的有效途径;东部农业用水效率促进农业用水量下降,但须警惕"回弹效应";中部农业用水效率抑制农业用水量增长,且作用逐渐增强;西部农业用水效率提高能够快速降低农业用水量,但作用逐渐减弱。另外,提升农民受教育水平、增加绿水足迹、扩大农业劳动人口能够降低农业用水量,而丰富的水资源禀赋促进农业用水量增加。
Employing panel data gathered from 1998-2015 in 30 provinces in China,adapting Super-SBM model to calculate agricultural water efficiency and relying on the observations of the dynamic and static evolution of agricultural water consumption and agricultural water efficiency,this article attempts to determine the impact of agricultural water efficiency on agricultural water consumption utilizing threshold panel regression model. The findings illustrate the periodical decrease in both agricultural water efficiency and agricultural water consumption in China. An effective approach to increase efficiency in agricultural water is to reduce agricultural water consumption since agricultural water efficiency has a significant threshold effect on reducing agricultural water consumption. The decreased efficiency in agricultural water efficiency in eastern area promotes agricultural water's downscale,but the effect of resilience should not be overlooked. The agricultural water efficiency in central China reduces the increase in agricultural water consumption with its strengthening effect. Increased agricultural water efficiency in western China can promptly reduce agricultural water consumption with its diminishing effect. Additionally,agricultural water consumption can be reduced by enhancing peasants' educational level,by enabling more coverage of green lands and by enlarging agricultural laborers' population while excellent water resources endowment can increase agricultural water consumption.
Employing panel data gathered from 1998-2015 in 30 provinces in China,adapting Super-SBM model to calculate agricultural water efficiency and relying on the observations of the dynamic and static evolution of agricultural water consumption and agricultural water efficiency,this article attempts to determine the impact of agricultural water efficiency on agricultural water consumption utilizing threshold panel regression model. The findings illustrate the periodical decrease in both agricultural water efficiency and agricultural water consumption in China. An effective approach to increase efficiency in agricultural water is to reduce agricultural water consumption since agricultural water efficiency has a significant threshold effect on reducing agricultural water consumption. The decreased efficiency in agricultural water efficiency in eastern area promotes agricultural water's downscale,but the effect of resilience should not be overlooked. The agricultural water efficiency in central China reduces the increase in agricultural water consumption with its strengthening effect. Increased agricultural water efficiency in western China can promptly reduce agricultural water consumption with its diminishing effect. Additionally,agricultural water consumption can be reduced by enhancing peasants' educational level,by enabling more coverage of green lands and by enlarging agricultural laborers' population while excellent water resources endowment can increase agricultural water consumption.
引文
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(1)由于西藏自治区数据缺失较多,故本文研究分析中不考虑该省份.
(1)Super-SBM模型包括投入导向型和产出导向型,前者衡量在投入既定条件下获得最大产出的能力,后者则是在既定产出条件下投入最少要素的能力.本文拟采用规模报酬可变假设下基于投入导向型测算农业生产效率.
(2)带宽选择的方法有均方误差法和积分误差法,本文采用均方误差法.
(1)绿水指降水通过植物蒸腾进入大气的水资源,是农作物生长用水的重要来源之一.本文的使用各省农作物包括粮食作物和经济作物,占农林牧产值的95%以上,故以此作为农业生产过程中的绿水足迹.
(2)利用《中国水资源公报2015》数据测算得出,耕地实际灌溉用水量占农业用水量的95%以上,草地和林地灌溉用水量与之相比可以忽略;另外,根据《中国统计年鉴》的定义,耕地/有效灌溉面积等于能够进行正常灌溉的水田和水浇地面积之和,同时借鉴前人研究成果,本文将有效/耕地灌溉面积作为农业用水效率测算过程中的土地投入.
(1)Hansen等(1999)指出,需要计算估计量的一般统计量,50~200次自抽样就足够了,故本研究中采用抽样300次.
(1)数据来源于《中国水利年鉴》.
[2]贾绍凤,吕爱锋,韩雁,等.中国水资源安全报告[M].北京:科学出版社,2014.[JIA S F,LV A F,HAN Y,et al.China water resources safety report[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2014.]
[3]中华人民共和国统计局.中国统计年鉴(2016)[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2016.
[4]中华人民共和国中央人民政府.关于落实发展新理念加快农业现代化实现全面小康目标的若干意见[Z].北京:中华人民共和国中央人民政府,2016.
[5]王学渊,赵连阁.中国农业用水效率及影响因素——基于1997-2006年省区面板数据的SFA分析[J].农业经济问题,2008(3):10-18.[WANG X Y,ZHAO L G.Agricultural efficiency and influencing factors in China:SFA analysis based on provincial panel data from 1997 to 2006[J].Issues in Agricultural Economy,2008(3):10-18.]
[6]佟金萍,马剑锋,王慧敏,等.农业用水效率与技术进步:基于中国农业面板数据的实证研究[J].资源科学,2014,36(9):1765-1772.[TONG J P,MA J F,WANG H M,et al.Agricultural water use efficiency and technical progress in china based on agricultural panel data[J].Resources Science,2014,36(9):1765-1772.]
[7]焦源.山东省农业生产效率评价研究[J].中国人口.资源与环境,2013,23(12):105-110.[JIAO Y.Evaluation research of agricultural production efficiency in Shandong Province[J].China Population.Resources and Environment,2013,23(12):105-110.]
[8]GADANAKIS Y,BENNETT R,PARK J,et al.Improving productivity and water use efficiency:a case study of farms in England[J].Agricultural Water Management,2015,160:22-32.
[9]刘渝,王兆锋,张俊飚.农业水资源利用效率的影响因素分析[J].经济问题,2007(6):75-77.[LIU Y,WANG Z F,ZHANG J B.Analysis on the influencing factors of agricultural water resources utilization efficiency[J].On Economic Problems,2007(6):75-77.]
[10]KATRIEN D,AMEDE T,HAILESLASSIE A.Improving water productivity in mixed crop-livestock farming systems of SubSaharan Africa[J].Agricultural Water Management,2010,97(5):579-586.
[11]李青,陈红梅,王雅鹏.基于面板VAR模型的新疆农业用水与农业经济增长的互动效应研究[J].资源科学,2014,36(8):1679-1685.[LI Q,CHEN H M,WANG Y P.The interactive effect of agricultural water and agricultural economic growth in Xinjiang[J].Resources Science,2014,36(8):1679-1685.]
[12]BURN S,MAHEEPALA S,SHARMA A K.Utilising integrated urban water managementto assess the viability of decentralised water solutions[J].Water Science&Technology,2012,66(1):113-121.
[13]夏莲,石晓平,冯淑怡,等.农业产业化背景下农户水资源利用效率影响因素分析——基于甘肃省民乐县的实证分析[J].中国人口.资源与环境,2013,23(12):111-118.[XIA L,SHI X P,FENG S Y,et al.Impact factor of farmers’water use efficiency under the Background of the agriculture enterprise-Minle County in Gansu Province[J].China Population.Resources and Environment,2013,23(12):111-118.]
[14]耿献辉,张晓恒,宋玉兰.农业灌溉用水效率及其影响因素实证分析——基于随机前沿生产函数和新疆棉农调研数据[J].自然资源学报,2014,29(6):934-943.[GENG X H,ZHANG X H,SONG Y L.Measurement of irrigation water efficiency and analysis of influential factors:an empirical study based on stochastic production frontier and cotton farmers’data in Xinjiang[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2014,29(6):934-943.]
[15]邓朝晖,刘洋,薛惠锋.基于VAR模型的水资源利用与经济增长动态关系研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(6):128-135.[DENG C H,LIU Y,XUE H F.Study on the dynamic relationship between economic growth and water resources-use based on the VAR model[J].China Population.Resources and Environment,2012,22(6):128-135.]
[16]刘渝,杜江,张俊飚.中国农业用水与经济增长的Kuznets假说及验证[J].长江流域资源与环境,2008,17(4):593-597.[LIU Y,DU J,ZHANG J B.Hypothesis and validation on the Kuznets Curve of agricultural water use and economic growth[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2008,17(4):593-597.]
[17]KIM S H,CHOI S H,KOO J Y,et al.Trend analysis of domestic water consumption depending upon social,cultural,economic parameters[J].Water Science&Technology Water Supply,2007,7(5):61-68.
[18]CHARNES A,COOPER W W,RHODES E.Measuring the efficiency of decision making units[J].European Journal of Operational Research,1987,2(6):429-444.
[19]TONE K.A Slacks-based measure of efficiency in data envelopment analysis[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2001,130(3):498-509.
[20]TONE K.A Slacks-based measure of super-efficiency in data envelopment analysis[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2002,143:32-41.
[21]黎运发,黄名辉.核密度估计逐点最优窗宽选择的改进[J].统计与决策,2011,338(14):28-32.[LI Y F,HUANG M H.Improvement of point-by-point optimal window width selection for nuclear density estimation[J].Statistics&Decision,2011,338(14):28-32.]
[22]刘远龙.核密度估计中的窗宽选择方法[D].合肥:中国科学技术大学,2013.[LIU Y L.Selection of window width in nuclear density estimation[D].Hefei:University of Science and Technology of China,2013.]
[23]陈强.高级计量经济学及Stata应用(第二版)[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2014.[CHEN Q.Advanced econometrics and stata applications(2nd Edition)[M].Beijing:Higher Education Press,2014.]
[24]HANSEN B E.Threshold effect in non-dynamic Panels:estimation,testing,and inference[J].Journal of Econometrics,1999,93:345-368.
[25]HU J,WANG S,YEH F.Total-factor water efficiency of regions in China[J].Resources Policy,2006,31(4):217-230.
[26]KANEKO S,TANAKA K,TOYOTA T.Water efficiency of agricultural production in China:regional comparison from 1999 to2002[J].International Journal of Agricultural Resources,Governance and Ecology,2004(3):231-251.
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(1)由于西藏自治区数据缺失较多,故本文研究分析中不考虑该省份.
(1)Super-SBM模型包括投入导向型和产出导向型,前者衡量在投入既定条件下获得最大产出的能力,后者则是在既定产出条件下投入最少要素的能力.本文拟采用规模报酬可变假设下基于投入导向型测算农业生产效率.
(2)带宽选择的方法有均方误差法和积分误差法,本文采用均方误差法.
(1)绿水指降水通过植物蒸腾进入大气的水资源,是农作物生长用水的重要来源之一.本文的使用各省农作物包括粮食作物和经济作物,占农林牧产值的95%以上,故以此作为农业生产过程中的绿水足迹.
(2)利用《中国水资源公报2015》数据测算得出,耕地实际灌溉用水量占农业用水量的95%以上,草地和林地灌溉用水量与之相比可以忽略;另外,根据《中国统计年鉴》的定义,耕地/有效灌溉面积等于能够进行正常灌溉的水田和水浇地面积之和,同时借鉴前人研究成果,本文将有效/耕地灌溉面积作为农业用水效率测算过程中的土地投入.
(1)Hansen等(1999)指出,需要计算估计量的一般统计量,50~200次自抽样就足够了,故本研究中采用抽样300次.
(1)数据来源于《中国水利年鉴》.
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