基于气候适宜度的江苏水稻气候年景预测方法
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摘要
在改进气候适宜度模型参数的基础上,利用1961-2016年70个站的气象观测资料和农业资料,应用统计方法,确定了温度、日照、降水适宜度对水稻气象产量的影响权重,由此构建了年景综合指数及其预测模型。结果表明:日照适宜度和降水适宜度与相对气象产量之间存在显著的相关关系,影响权重分别为0.460和0.428,由于热量资源充足,温度适宜度对气象产量的影响权重偏小(0.112);基于气候适宜度构建的年景综合指数与相对气象产量的相关系数达0.411,说明该指数能较好地表征气候条件对产量形成的综合影响;基于大气环流特征量和太平洋海温等大尺度预报因子,采用最优相关和逐步回归等方法,建立了水稻年景综合指数的预测模型,经过历史拟合和试报检验后效果理想,可投入业务应用,该方法的预测结果将为水稻产量分析预测提供科学依据。
The impacts of temperature, sunshine and precipitation climatic suitabilities on rice meteorological output are determined based on the meteorological data and agricultural data from 1961 to 2016 by using the statistical analysis and the climate suitability model, whose parameters have been improved. The comprehensive index of annual agricultural climate status and its prediction model are constructed. The results show that there is a significant correlation between sunshine and precipitation suitabilities and relative meteorological output. The influence weights about sunshine and precipitation suitabilities are 0. 460 and0.428, respectively. Due to sufficient heat resources, the temperature suitability has a small influence on meteorological output(0. 112). The correlation coefficient of the composite index of annual agricultural climate status and relative meteorological output based on climate suitability is 0. 411, which indicates that the index can better characterize the comprehensive effect of climatic conditions on yield formation. Prediction model of composite index of annual agricultural climate is established by large-scale predictors such as atmospheric circulation characteristics and Pacific SST using optimal correlation and stepwise regression.Through historic matching and trying test, the effect of prediction model is ideal and can be put into operation. The prediction results would provide scientific basis for the analysis and prediction of rice yield.
The impacts of temperature, sunshine and precipitation climatic suitabilities on rice meteorological output are determined based on the meteorological data and agricultural data from 1961 to 2016 by using the statistical analysis and the climate suitability model, whose parameters have been improved. The comprehensive index of annual agricultural climate status and its prediction model are constructed. The results show that there is a significant correlation between sunshine and precipitation suitabilities and relative meteorological output. The influence weights about sunshine and precipitation suitabilities are 0. 460 and0.428, respectively. Due to sufficient heat resources, the temperature suitability has a small influence on meteorological output(0. 112). The correlation coefficient of the composite index of annual agricultural climate status and relative meteorological output based on climate suitability is 0. 411, which indicates that the index can better characterize the comprehensive effect of climatic conditions on yield formation. Prediction model of composite index of annual agricultural climate is established by large-scale predictors such as atmospheric circulation characteristics and Pacific SST using optimal correlation and stepwise regression.Through historic matching and trying test, the effect of prediction model is ideal and can be put into operation. The prediction results would provide scientific basis for the analysis and prediction of rice yield.
引文
曹琦萍,王传辉,周建平,等,2014.江淮流域夏半年日照时数气候特征及趋势分析[J].气象,40(5):549-554.
顾薇,2016.夏季热带西太平洋海温对厄尔尼诺发展阶段我国东部汛期降水的影响分析[J].气象,42(5):548-556.
黄维,杨沈斌,陈德,等,2017.苏皖鄂地区一季稻气候适宜度模型的构建[J].江苏农业科学,45(2):232-238.
江苏省气象局,2017.江苏省天气预报技术手册[M].北京:气象出版社:22-52.
赖纯佳,千怀遂,段海来,等,2009.淮河流域双季稻气候适宜度及其变化趋势[J].生态学杂志,28(11):2339-2346.
李翠金,马巧英,1998.长江中下游地区旱涝气候年景和评定方法的研究[J].灾害学,13(1):72-77.
李祎君,王春乙,赵蓓,等,2010.气候变化对中国农业气象灾害与病虫害的影响[J].农业工程学报,26(S1):263-271.
马树庆,1994.吉林省农业气候研究[M].北京:气象出版社:33.
毛留喜,魏丽,2015.大宗作物气象服务手册[M].北京:气象出版社:23.
彭加毅,孙照渤,2001.春季赤道东太平洋海温异常对东亚大气环流春夏季节演变的影响[J].热带气象学报,17(4):398-404.
孙家明,黄朝迎,2005.中国农业气候年景的评估及预测[J].应用气象学报,16(S1):111-115.
谭孟祥,景元书,曹海宁,2016.江苏省一季稻生长季气候适宜度及其变化趋势分析[J].江苏农业科学,44(1):349-353.
汪铎,张镡,1989.“环流-天气气候-农业年景”系统模式探讨[J].大气科学,13(2):178-184.
谢志清,曾燕,杜银,等,2013.江淮流域水稻高温热害灾损变化及应对策略[J].气象,39(6):774-781.
徐敏,徐经纬,高苹,等,2015.江苏水稻障碍型冷害时空变化特征及敏感性分析[J].气象,41(11):1367-1373.
徐敏,徐经纬,高苹,等,2016a.基于海温和大气环流特征量的农业气候年景预测[J].江苏农业科学,44(9):435-438,439.
徐敏,徐经纬,徐乐,等,2016b.水稻农业气候资源变化特征及影响分析——以江苏稻区为例[J].中国农学通报,32(18):142-150.
徐敏,徐经纬,高苹,等,2017.基于大尺度因子的江苏稻区稻瘟病气象等级长期预测[J].植物保护,43(4):36-41.
赵峰,千怀遂,焦士兴,2003.农作物气候适宜度模型研究——以河南省冬小麦为例[J].资源科学,25(6):77-82.
顾薇,2016.夏季热带西太平洋海温对厄尔尼诺发展阶段我国东部汛期降水的影响分析[J].气象,42(5):548-556.
黄维,杨沈斌,陈德,等,2017.苏皖鄂地区一季稻气候适宜度模型的构建[J].江苏农业科学,45(2):232-238.
江苏省气象局,2017.江苏省天气预报技术手册[M].北京:气象出版社:22-52.
赖纯佳,千怀遂,段海来,等,2009.淮河流域双季稻气候适宜度及其变化趋势[J].生态学杂志,28(11):2339-2346.
李翠金,马巧英,1998.长江中下游地区旱涝气候年景和评定方法的研究[J].灾害学,13(1):72-77.
李祎君,王春乙,赵蓓,等,2010.气候变化对中国农业气象灾害与病虫害的影响[J].农业工程学报,26(S1):263-271.
马树庆,1994.吉林省农业气候研究[M].北京:气象出版社:33.
毛留喜,魏丽,2015.大宗作物气象服务手册[M].北京:气象出版社:23.
彭加毅,孙照渤,2001.春季赤道东太平洋海温异常对东亚大气环流春夏季节演变的影响[J].热带气象学报,17(4):398-404.
孙家明,黄朝迎,2005.中国农业气候年景的评估及预测[J].应用气象学报,16(S1):111-115.
谭孟祥,景元书,曹海宁,2016.江苏省一季稻生长季气候适宜度及其变化趋势分析[J].江苏农业科学,44(1):349-353.
汪铎,张镡,1989.“环流-天气气候-农业年景”系统模式探讨[J].大气科学,13(2):178-184.
谢志清,曾燕,杜银,等,2013.江淮流域水稻高温热害灾损变化及应对策略[J].气象,39(6):774-781.
徐敏,徐经纬,高苹,等,2015.江苏水稻障碍型冷害时空变化特征及敏感性分析[J].气象,41(11):1367-1373.
徐敏,徐经纬,高苹,等,2016a.基于海温和大气环流特征量的农业气候年景预测[J].江苏农业科学,44(9):435-438,439.
徐敏,徐经纬,徐乐,等,2016b.水稻农业气候资源变化特征及影响分析——以江苏稻区为例[J].中国农学通报,32(18):142-150.
徐敏,徐经纬,高苹,等,2017.基于大尺度因子的江苏稻区稻瘟病气象等级长期预测[J].植物保护,43(4):36-41.
赵峰,千怀遂,焦士兴,2003.农作物气候适宜度模型研究——以河南省冬小麦为例[J].资源科学,25(6):77-82.