1980-2016年气候变化对湖南省农业产量的影响
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摘要
全球气候变化背景下,农作物生产对气象条件的响应程度受到普遍关注。本文基于湖南省官方发布的1980—2016年气象和农业数据,运用多种统计方法,分析了湖南省气候、产量变化特征以及气候因素对高、中、低产区农作物产量的影响。结果表明:①1980—2016年,湖南省年均气温以0.39℃/10a的速率显著上升,年均降水量和年均日照时数有所减少,但趋势不显著。气温、降水、日照普遍存在突变现象。②4种主要粮食作物的单产均呈上升趋势,上升速率大小顺序为:玉米(0.122 t/hm2/a)>大豆(0.040 t/hm2/a)>小麦(0.039 t/hm2/a)>稻谷(0.028 t/hm2/a)。稻谷、小麦、玉米、大豆分别有0、9、19、11个气候丰年,1、5、2、4个气候歉年。③年均气温对中产区稻谷的气候产量有显著负效应。年均降水量对低产区稻谷、小麦的气候产量有显著负效应。年均日照时数对中产区玉米的气候产量,以及低产区稻谷、小麦、玉米的气候产量均有显著正效应。建议高产区进一步优化农业种植结构和种植制度,中低产区可引进和培育耐高温、耐涝的稻谷、小麦、玉米新品种,并适当调整播期。
Under the background of global climate change, the response of crop production to meteorological conditions and climate variability has attracted widespread attention. Based on the official meteorological and agricultural production data issued by Hunan Province from 1980 to2016, we analyzed the change characteristics of local climate factors and crop yields, and the influences of climate factors on crop output in high, medium and low production areas with a variety of statistical methods. The results show that:(1) In 1980-2016, annual average temperature in Hunan Province increased significantly at the rate of 0.39/10 a. Annual average precipitation and sunshine hour decreased but not significantly. There were sudden changes in meteorological factors generally.(2) Per unit yields of four major crops all showed upward trend, with the increase rate ranging from high to low: maize(0.122 t/hm2/a)>soybeans(0.040 t/hm2/a)>wheat(0.039 t/hm2/a)>rice(0.028 t/hm2/a). Rice had 0 climate good year; wheat 9 climate good years; maize 19 climate good years; and soybeans 11 climate good years. Rice had 1 climate lean year; wheat 5 climate lean years; maize 2 climate lean years; and soybeans 4 climate lean years.(3) Annual average temperature had a significant negative influence on the climate yield of rice in medium production areas. Annual average precipitation had a significant negative influence on the climate yield of rice and wheat in low production areas. Annual average sunshine hour had a significant positive influence on the climate yield of maize in medium production areas, and rice, wheat and maize in low production areas. Our study suggested that the cropping structure and cropping system could be further optimized in high production area. Meanwhile, improved breeds of rice and wheat resistant to high temperature and waterlogging could be introduced and cultivated in low/medium production areas. Their planting period could also be adjusted appropriately.
Under the background of global climate change, the response of crop production to meteorological conditions and climate variability has attracted widespread attention. Based on the official meteorological and agricultural production data issued by Hunan Province from 1980 to2016, we analyzed the change characteristics of local climate factors and crop yields, and the influences of climate factors on crop output in high, medium and low production areas with a variety of statistical methods. The results show that:(1) In 1980-2016, annual average temperature in Hunan Province increased significantly at the rate of 0.39/10 a. Annual average precipitation and sunshine hour decreased but not significantly. There were sudden changes in meteorological factors generally.(2) Per unit yields of four major crops all showed upward trend, with the increase rate ranging from high to low: maize(0.122 t/hm2/a)>soybeans(0.040 t/hm2/a)>wheat(0.039 t/hm2/a)>rice(0.028 t/hm2/a). Rice had 0 climate good year; wheat 9 climate good years; maize 19 climate good years; and soybeans 11 climate good years. Rice had 1 climate lean year; wheat 5 climate lean years; maize 2 climate lean years; and soybeans 4 climate lean years.(3) Annual average temperature had a significant negative influence on the climate yield of rice in medium production areas. Annual average precipitation had a significant negative influence on the climate yield of rice and wheat in low production areas. Annual average sunshine hour had a significant positive influence on the climate yield of maize in medium production areas, and rice, wheat and maize in low production areas. Our study suggested that the cropping structure and cropping system could be further optimized in high production area. Meanwhile, improved breeds of rice and wheat resistant to high temperature and waterlogging could be introduced and cultivated in low/medium production areas. Their planting period could also be adjusted appropriately.
引文
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[2]钱凤魁,王文涛,刘燕华.农业领域应对气候变化的适应措施与对策[J].中国人口·资源与环境, 2014, 24(5):19-24.[Qian F K, Wang W T, Liu Y H. Research of adaptive countermeasures of addressing climate change in agriculture field[J]. China Popula?tion Resources and Environment, 2014, 24(5):19-24.]
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[4]宁晓菊,秦耀辰,崔耀平,等. 60年来中国农业水热气候条件的时空变化[J].地理学报, 2015, 70(3):364-379.[Ning X J, Qin Y C, Cui Y P, et al. The spatio-temporal change of agricultural hy?drothermal conditions in China from 1951 to 2010[J]. Acta Geo?graphica Sinica, 2015, 70(3):364-379.]
[5] Piao S L, Ciais P, Huang Y, et al. The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China[J]. Nature, 2010, 467:43-51.
[6]周曙东,朱红根.气候变化对中国南方稻谷产量的经济影响极其适应策略[J].中国人口·资源与环境, 2010, 20(10):152-157.[Zhou S D, Zhu H G. Economic analysis of climate change impact on the rice yield in Southern China and its adaptive strategy[J]. Chi?na Population Resources and Environment, 2010, 20(10):152-157.]
[7]孙华,何茂萍,胡明成.全球变化背景下气候变暖对中国农业生产的影响[J].中国农业资源与区划, 2015, 36(7):51-57.[Sun H, He M P, Hu M C. Impact of global climatic warming on agricul?tural production in China[J]. Chinese Journal of Agricultural Re?sources and Regional Planning, 2015, 36(7):51-57.]
[8]纪瑞鹏,张玉书,姜丽霞,等.气候变化对东北地区玉米生产的影响[J].地理研究, 2012, 31(2):290-298.[Ji R P, Zhang Y S, Jiang L X, et al. Effect of climate change on maize production in North?east China[J]. Geographical Research, 2012, 31(2):290-298.]
[9]赵海燕,姚凤梅,张勇,等.长江中下游稻谷开花灌浆期气象要素与结实率和粒重的相关性分析[J].中国农业科学, 2006, 39(9):1765-1771.[Zhao H Y, Yao F M, Zhang Y, et al. Correlation analysis of rice seed setting rate and weight of 1000-grain and agro-meteorology over the middle and lower reaches of the Yang?tze River[J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2006, 39(9):1765-1771.]
[10]侯麟科,仇焕广,汪阳洁,等.气候变化对我国农业生产的影响:基于多投入多产出生产函数的分析[J].农业技术经济,2015,(3):4-14.[Hou L K, Chou H Z, Wang Y J, et al. Qihou?bianhua dui Woguo nongyeshengchan de yingxiang:Jiyu duotouru duochanchu shengchanhanshu de fenxi[J]. Journal of Agrotechni?cal Economics, 2015,(3):4-14.]
[11] Molua E L, Molua E L. The economic impact of climate change on agriculture in Cameroon[J]. Social Science Electronic Publishing,2016, 6(9):1-33.
[12] Howden S M, Soussana J F, Tubiello F N, et al. Adapting agricul?ture to climate change[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2007, 104(50):19686-19690.
[13]熊伟,林而达,蒋金荷,等.中国粮食生产的综合影响因素分析[J].地理学报, 2010, 65(4):397-406.[Xiong W, Lin E D, Jiang J H, et al. An integrated analysis of impact factors in determining China’s future grain production[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2010, 65(4):397-406.]
[14]钟章奇,王铮,夏海斌,等.全球气候变化下中国农业生产潜力的空间演变[J].自然资源学报, 2015, 30(12):2018-2032.[Zhong Z Q, Wang Z, Xia H W, et al. Temporal and spatial varia?tion of the potential agricultural productivity of China under global climate change[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2015, 30(12):2018-2032.]
[15]张强,邓振镛,赵映东,等.全球气候变化对我国西北地区农业的影响[J].生态学报, 2008, 28(3):1210-1218.[Zhang Q, Deng Z Y, Zhao Y D, et al. The impacts of global climatic change on the agriculture in Northwest China[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2008, 28(3):1210-1218.]
[16]胡实,莫兴国,林忠辉.气候变化对海河流域主要作物物候和产量影响[J].地理研究, 2014, 33(1):3-12.[Hu S, Mo X G, Lin Z H. The contribution of climate change to the crop phenology and yield in Haihe River Basin[J]. Geographical Research, 2014, 33(1):3-12.]
[17]廖玉芳,彭嘉栋,崔巍.湖南农业气候资源对全球气候变化的响应分析[J].中国农学通报, 2012, 28(8):287-293.[Liao Y F,Peng J D, Cui W. Response analysis of Hunan agricultural climate resources to global climate change[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2012, 28(8):287-293.]
[18]陈隆勋,周秀骥,李维亮,等.中国近80年来气候变化特征及其形成机制[J].气象学报, 2004, 62(5):634-646.[Chen L X, Zhou X J, Li W L, et al. Characteristics of the climate change and its for?mation mechanism in China in last 80 years[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2004, 62(5):634-646.]
[19]张翀,李晶,任志远.西北地区1962年至2000年降水量变化的时空特征分析[J].资源科学, 2010, 32(12):2298-2304.[Zhang C, Li J, Ren Z Y. Spatialand temporal characteristics of precipita?tion changes from 1962 to 2000 in Northwestern China[J]. Resourc?es Science, 2010, 32(12):2298-2304.]
[20]湖南省气象志编纂委员会.湖南省气象志[M].北京:气象出版社, 2008.[Hunan Meteorological Compilation Committee. Hunan Meteorological[M]. Beijing:China Meteorological Press, 2008.]
[21]中国气象年鉴编辑委员会. 1986-2015年中国气象年鉴[M].北京:气象出版社, 2016.[China Meteorological Yearbook Editorial Board. 1986-2015 China Meteorological Yearbook[M]. Beijing:China Meteorological Press, 2016.]
[22]湖南省统计局. 1987-2015年湖南统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社, 2016.[Hunan Statistics Bureau. 1987-2015 Hunan Meteorological Yearbook[M]. Beijing:China Statistics Press,2016.]
[23]湖南省统计局. 1987-2015年湖南农村统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社, 2016.[Hunan Statistics Bureau. 1987-2015 Hu?nan Rural Statistical Yearbook[M]. Beijing:China Statistics Press,2016.]
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