县域农作物产量保险风险区划与费率厘定研究——基于福建省推广县域水稻保险的构想

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英文篇名：County Crop Production Insurance Risk Zoning and Rate Determination——Based on the concept of promoting county rice insurance in Fujian Province 作者：占纪文 ; 郑思宁 ; 徐学荣 英文作者：Zhan Jiwen;Zheng Sining;Xu Xuerong; 关键词：农业保险 ; 区域产量保险 ; 风险区划 ; 费率厘定 ; 非参数核密度 英文关键词：Agricultural insurance;;Regional production insurance;;Risk zoning;;Rate determination;;Non-parametric nuclear density 中文刊名：JGLS 英文刊名：Price:Theory & Practice 机构：福建农林大学经济学院;福建农林大学公共管理学院; 出版日期：2019-07-22 12:04 出版单位：价格理论与实践 年：2019 期：No.418 基金：国家自然科学基金资助项目《有害生物风险防控中的农业组织形式选择》(71703023);; 福建省社会科学规划项目《福建省水稻保险费率决定及财政补贴机制研究》(2010B2039) 语种：中文; 页：JGLS201904031 页数：4 CN：04 ISSN：11-1010/F 分类号：131-134

摘要

农作物区域产量保险是对农业风险保险制度的探索和实践,风险区划与费率厘定是农作物区域产量保险理论与实践中需要解决的关键问题。本文阐述了风险区划与费率厘定的机理与方法。根据福建省县域的中晚稻生产情况,选取稻谷历年平均减产率等6个指标为风险指标,运用聚类分析法对中晚稻产量保险进行风险区划,得到低、中、高三个风险大区。选择直线滑动平均法去趋势,用非参数核密度估计单产分布密度函数,然后利用纯费率公式分别计算出66个风险单位中晚稻的纯费率。最后提供了"同一风险分区,统一的保险费率"和"一县,一费率"两种方案供选择。
        Crop regional production insurance is the exploration and practice of agricultural risk insurance system. Risk zoning and rate determination are the key issues to be solved in the theory and practice of crop regional yield insurance. This paper describes the mechanism and method of risk zoning and rate determination. According to the production situation of mid-late rice in the county of Fujian Province, six indicators including average yield reduction of rice over the years were selected as risk indicators. Cluster analysis was used to carry out risk zoning of mid-late rice yield insurance, and three risk areas of low, medium and high were obtained. The linear sliding average method was used to select the trend, and the non-parametric kernel density was used to estimate the yield density function. Then, the pure rate formula was used to calculate the pure rate of the late rice in 66 risk units. Finally, the "same risk zone, unified insurance rate" and "one county, one rate" two options are available for selection.

引文

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