对流非对称台风“天鸽”(1713)近海急剧增强成因分析
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摘要
利用欧洲中心ERA-Interim逐6 h再分析资料(水平分辨率0.125°×0.125°)、NOAA逐日海表温度资料(水平分辨率0.25°×0.25°)、日本HMW8卫星逐时黑体亮温TBB (水平分辨率0.05°×0.05°)资料对对流非对称台风"天鸽"近海急剧增强原因进行了分析。结果表明:(1)"天鸽"是在其对流呈非对称分布的前提下发展起来的,近海急剧增强过程其对流也呈非对称分布。"天鸽"强度增强时,TBB一波非对称振幅逐渐减小,非对称程度减弱。(2)南海北部28.5～30℃异常偏暖的海表温度有利于"天鸽"快速增强,是"天鸽"近海急剧增强的原因。(3)"天鸽"近海强度变化与南亚高压、副热带高压的强度变化呈正相关系,"天鸽"近海急剧增强发生在200 hPa南亚高压加强东移,同时500 h Pa副热带高压加强西伸、低层西南季风加强的有利条件下。200 hPa南亚高压反气旋环流加强东移导致台风上空向西南方向出流加强,台风中心南侧高层辐散与低层辐合的显著加强及其导致的非对称分布的强对流的发展,是"天鸽"急剧增强的重要原因之一。200hPa南亚高压加强东移与低层西南季风加强同步导致环境风垂直切变明显增大,对"天鸽"内的对流分布和台风强度均有重要影响,环境风垂直切变低于阻碍台风发展的阈值(12.5 m·s~(-1))是台风急剧增强的一个重要条件。(4)"天鸽"强度的快速加强与副热带高压加强西伸和西南季风加强造成的台风内部的非对称环流结构密切相关,"天鸽"水平风速的非对称分布导致台风中心附近正涡度增大,水平风速非对称分布变深厚引起台风中心附近正涡度大值区向对流层中上层伸展,也是"天鸽"急剧增强的重要原因。
Using the 6-hourly reanalysis data of European Center ERA-Interim with horizontal resolution of 0.125°×0.125°, the daily sea surface temperature(SST) data of NOAA with horizontal resolution of 0.25°×0.25°, and the hourly black body temperature(TBB) data of Japan HMW8 satellite with horizontal resolution of 0.05°×0.05°, the analysis on cause of rapid intensification(RI) of asymmetrical Typhoon Hato(No.1713) over the offshore of China is carried out. The results are as follows.(1) Hato has developed under the precondition that the disturbance of convection in Hato was asymmetrical and Hato had kept to be asymmetrical during its RI. The amplitude of one wave asymmetry of TBB decreased gradually and the degree of asymmetry weakened when Hato intensified.(2) Abnormally high SST of 28.5～30 ℃ in the northern South China Sea favorable to the development of typhoon was one of the factors causing RI of Hato.(3) The intensity change of Hato was in proportion to that of the South Asia high and the subtropical high. RI of Hato over the offshore occurred under the favorable condition that the South Asia high was strengthening and moving eastward at 200 hPa while the subtropical high was strengthening and moving westward at 500 hPa, and the low-level southwesterly monsoon flow was increasing. The enhancement of the southwestward outflow over Hato was caused by anti-cyclonic circulation of the South Asia high on 200 hPa. Remarkable strengthening of upper-level divergence and low-level convergence in the south of Hato and the resulting development of asymmetrical strong convection were important causes of RI of Hato.Strengthening and eastward moving of the South Asia high at 200 hPa and the simultaneous increasing of the low-level southwesterly monsoon flow led to a significant enhancement of the environmental vertical wind shear(VWS) which played an important role in the distribution of convection and intensity of Hato. The environmental VWS below the threshold(12.5 m·s~(-1)) is a key condition for typhoon RI.(4) RI of Hato was closely related to the asymmetric structure circulation induced by the strengthening and westward moving of the subtropical high and the strengthening of the southwesterly monsoon flow. Increasing and upward stretching to the middle and upper troposphere of positive vorticity near typhoon center resulting from the asymmetrical distribution of horizontal wind and the deepening of such distribution also were important causes of RI of Hato.
Using the 6-hourly reanalysis data of European Center ERA-Interim with horizontal resolution of 0.125°×0.125°, the daily sea surface temperature(SST) data of NOAA with horizontal resolution of 0.25°×0.25°, and the hourly black body temperature(TBB) data of Japan HMW8 satellite with horizontal resolution of 0.05°×0.05°, the analysis on cause of rapid intensification(RI) of asymmetrical Typhoon Hato(No.1713) over the offshore of China is carried out. The results are as follows.(1) Hato has developed under the precondition that the disturbance of convection in Hato was asymmetrical and Hato had kept to be asymmetrical during its RI. The amplitude of one wave asymmetry of TBB decreased gradually and the degree of asymmetry weakened when Hato intensified.(2) Abnormally high SST of 28.5～30 ℃ in the northern South China Sea favorable to the development of typhoon was one of the factors causing RI of Hato.(3) The intensity change of Hato was in proportion to that of the South Asia high and the subtropical high. RI of Hato over the offshore occurred under the favorable condition that the South Asia high was strengthening and moving eastward at 200 hPa while the subtropical high was strengthening and moving westward at 500 hPa, and the low-level southwesterly monsoon flow was increasing. The enhancement of the southwestward outflow over Hato was caused by anti-cyclonic circulation of the South Asia high on 200 hPa. Remarkable strengthening of upper-level divergence and low-level convergence in the south of Hato and the resulting development of asymmetrical strong convection were important causes of RI of Hato.Strengthening and eastward moving of the South Asia high at 200 hPa and the simultaneous increasing of the low-level southwesterly monsoon flow led to a significant enhancement of the environmental vertical wind shear(VWS) which played an important role in the distribution of convection and intensity of Hato. The environmental VWS below the threshold(12.5 m·s~(-1)) is a key condition for typhoon RI.(4) RI of Hato was closely related to the asymmetric structure circulation induced by the strengthening and westward moving of the subtropical high and the strengthening of the southwesterly monsoon flow. Increasing and upward stretching to the middle and upper troposphere of positive vorticity near typhoon center resulting from the asymmetrical distribution of horizontal wind and the deepening of such distribution also were important causes of RI of Hato.
引文
陈见,孙红梅,高安宁,等.2014.超强台风“威马逊”与“达维”进入北部湾强度变化对比分析[J].暴雨灾害,33(4):392-400
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陈联寿,徐祥德,罗哲贤,等.2002.热带气旋动力学引论[M].北京:气象出版社,3-4
端义宏,余晖,伍荣生.2005.热带气旋强度变化研究进展[J].气象学报,63(5):636-645
高拴柱.2001.环境地转基本气流的计算及热带气旋运动与其偏差的统计分析[J].热带气象学报,17(2):155-162
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胡春梅,端义宏,余晖,等.2005,华南地区热带气旋登陆前强度突变的大尺度环境场诊断分析[J].热带气象学报,21(4):377-382
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陆波,钱维宏.2012.华南近海台风突然增强的初秋季节锁相[J].地球物理学报,55(5):1 523-1 531
寿绍文,姚秀萍.1995.爆发性发展台风合成环境场诊断分析[J].大气科学,19(4):487-493
苏鸿明.2001.9914号台风近海强度增强的主因分析[J].台湾海峡,20(3):298-300
魏应植,汤达章,许健民,等.2007.多普勒雷达探测“艾利”台风风场不对称结构[J].应用气象学报,18(3):285-294
徐明,余锦华,赖安伟,等.2009.环境风垂直切变与“登陆台风强度变化的统计关系[J].暴雨灾害,28(4):339-344
杨璐,费建芳,黄小刚,等.2017.西北太平洋环境风垂直切变和热带气旋移动对涡旋内对流非对称分布影响的特征分析[J].气象学报,75(6):943-954
姚祖庆,丁金才,唐新章,等.1996.9414号和9417号热带气旋强度突变和维持的研究[R]//台风、暴雨灾害性天气监测、预报技术研究.台风科学、业务试验和天气动力学理论的研究.北京:气象出版社,71-75
于玉斌,陈联寿,杨昌贤.2008.超强台风“桑美”(2006)近海急剧增强特征及机理分析[J].大气科学,32(2):405-416
于玉斌,杨昌贤,姚秀萍.2007.近海热带气旋强度突变的垂直结构特征分析[J].大气科学,31(5):876-886
于玉斌,姚秀萍.2006.西北太平洋热带气旋强度变化的统计特征[J].热带气象学报,22(6):521-526
于玉斌,郑祖光.2010.超强台风“桑美”(2006)能量发展的物理因子[J].大气科学,34(4):669-680
袁金南,王国民.1997.关于台风非对称结构与台风路径的数值研究[J].热带气象学报,13(3):208-216
张玲,许映龙,黄奕武.2014.1330号台风海燕强烈发展和快速移动原因分析[J].气象,40(12):1 464-1 480
郑峰,曾智华,雷小途,等.2017.一次近海突然增强台风的个例数值模拟[J].浙江气象,38(1):6-13
郑艳,蔡亲波,程守长,等.2014.超强台风“威马逊”(1409)强度和降水特征及其近海急剧加强原因[J].暴雨灾害,33(4):333-341
朱乾根,林锦瑞,寿绍文,等.2000.天气学原理和方法[M].北京:气象出版社,542-543
Beven J L II,Franklin J.2004.Eastern North Pacific hurricane season of1999[J].Mon Wea Rev,132:1 036-1 047
Black M L,Gamache J F,Marks Jr F D,et al.2002.Eastern Pacific Hurricanes Jimena of 1991 and Oliva of 1994:The effect of vertical shear on structure and intensity[J].Mon Wea Rev,130:2 291-2 312
Boyd J P.2001.Chebyshev and Fourier Spectral Methods(2nd ed)[M].New York:Dover,44
Chan J C L,Duan Y H,Shay L K.2001.Tropical cyclone intensity change from a simple ocean-atmosphere coupled model[J].Atmos Sci,58:154-172
Demaria M,Kaplan J.1994.Statistical hurricane intensity prediction scheme(SHIPS)for the Atlantic basin[J].Wea Forcasting,9:209-220
Gray M W.1968.Global view of the origin tropical disturbances and storms[J].Mon Wea Rev,96:669-700
Houze R A,Chen Jr S S,Smull B F,et al.2007.Hurricane intensity and eye wall replacement[J].Science,315:1 235-1 239
Kidder S Q,Gray W M,Haar T H V.1978.Estimating tropical cyclone central pressure and outer winds from satellite microwave data[J].Mon Wea Rev,106(10):1 458-1 464
Pasch R J,Lawrence M B,Avila L A,et al.2004.Atlantic hurricane season of 2002[J].Mon Wea Rev,132:1 829-1 859
Yang L,Fei J F,Huang X G,et al.2016.Asymmetric distribution of convection in tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific Ocean[J].Adv Atmos Sci,33(11):1 306-1 321
Zehr R M.1992.Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Western North Pacific[M].Washington:NOAA Technical Report NESDIS
Zehr R M.2002.Environmental vertical wind shear with Hurricane Bertha(1996)[J].Wea Forcasting,18:345-356
陈联寿,丁一汇.1979.西太平洋台风概论[M].北京:科学出版社,31-32
陈联寿,徐祥德,解以扬,等.1997.台风异常运动及其外区热力不稳定非对称结构的影响效应[J].大气科学,21(1):83-90
陈联寿,徐祥德,罗哲贤,等.2002.热带气旋动力学引论[M].北京:气象出版社,3-4
端义宏,余晖,伍荣生.2005.热带气旋强度变化研究进展[J].气象学报,63(5):636-645
高拴柱.2001.环境地转基本气流的计算及热带气旋运动与其偏差的统计分析[J].热带气象学报,17(2):155-162
何惠卿,王振会,金正润.2008.不对称环流对台风强度变化的影响[J].热带气象学报,24(3):249-253
胡春梅,端义宏,余晖,等.2005,华南地区热带气旋登陆前强度突变的大尺度环境场诊断分析[J].热带气象学报,21(4):377-382
林良勋,梁巧倩,黄忠.2006.华南近海急剧加强热带气旋及其环流综合分析[J].气象,32(2):14-18
陆波,钱维宏.2012.华南近海台风突然增强的初秋季节锁相[J].地球物理学报,55(5):1 523-1 531
寿绍文,姚秀萍.1995.爆发性发展台风合成环境场诊断分析[J].大气科学,19(4):487-493
苏鸿明.2001.9914号台风近海强度增强的主因分析[J].台湾海峡,20(3):298-300
魏应植,汤达章,许健民,等.2007.多普勒雷达探测“艾利”台风风场不对称结构[J].应用气象学报,18(3):285-294
徐明,余锦华,赖安伟,等.2009.环境风垂直切变与“登陆台风强度变化的统计关系[J].暴雨灾害,28(4):339-344
杨璐,费建芳,黄小刚,等.2017.西北太平洋环境风垂直切变和热带气旋移动对涡旋内对流非对称分布影响的特征分析[J].气象学报,75(6):943-954
姚祖庆,丁金才,唐新章,等.1996.9414号和9417号热带气旋强度突变和维持的研究[R]//台风、暴雨灾害性天气监测、预报技术研究.台风科学、业务试验和天气动力学理论的研究.北京:气象出版社,71-75
于玉斌,陈联寿,杨昌贤.2008.超强台风“桑美”(2006)近海急剧增强特征及机理分析[J].大气科学,32(2):405-416
于玉斌,杨昌贤,姚秀萍.2007.近海热带气旋强度突变的垂直结构特征分析[J].大气科学,31(5):876-886
于玉斌,姚秀萍.2006.西北太平洋热带气旋强度变化的统计特征[J].热带气象学报,22(6):521-526
于玉斌,郑祖光.2010.超强台风“桑美”(2006)能量发展的物理因子[J].大气科学,34(4):669-680
袁金南,王国民.1997.关于台风非对称结构与台风路径的数值研究[J].热带气象学报,13(3):208-216
张玲,许映龙,黄奕武.2014.1330号台风海燕强烈发展和快速移动原因分析[J].气象,40(12):1 464-1 480
郑峰,曾智华,雷小途,等.2017.一次近海突然增强台风的个例数值模拟[J].浙江气象,38(1):6-13
郑艳,蔡亲波,程守长,等.2014.超强台风“威马逊”(1409)强度和降水特征及其近海急剧加强原因[J].暴雨灾害,33(4):333-341
朱乾根,林锦瑞,寿绍文,等.2000.天气学原理和方法[M].北京:气象出版社,542-543
Beven J L II,Franklin J.2004.Eastern North Pacific hurricane season of1999[J].Mon Wea Rev,132:1 036-1 047
Black M L,Gamache J F,Marks Jr F D,et al.2002.Eastern Pacific Hurricanes Jimena of 1991 and Oliva of 1994:The effect of vertical shear on structure and intensity[J].Mon Wea Rev,130:2 291-2 312
Boyd J P.2001.Chebyshev and Fourier Spectral Methods(2nd ed)[M].New York:Dover,44
Chan J C L,Duan Y H,Shay L K.2001.Tropical cyclone intensity change from a simple ocean-atmosphere coupled model[J].Atmos Sci,58:154-172
Demaria M,Kaplan J.1994.Statistical hurricane intensity prediction scheme(SHIPS)for the Atlantic basin[J].Wea Forcasting,9:209-220
Gray M W.1968.Global view of the origin tropical disturbances and storms[J].Mon Wea Rev,96:669-700
Houze R A,Chen Jr S S,Smull B F,et al.2007.Hurricane intensity and eye wall replacement[J].Science,315:1 235-1 239
Kidder S Q,Gray W M,Haar T H V.1978.Estimating tropical cyclone central pressure and outer winds from satellite microwave data[J].Mon Wea Rev,106(10):1 458-1 464
Pasch R J,Lawrence M B,Avila L A,et al.2004.Atlantic hurricane season of 2002[J].Mon Wea Rev,132:1 829-1 859
Yang L,Fei J F,Huang X G,et al.2016.Asymmetric distribution of convection in tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific Ocean[J].Adv Atmos Sci,33(11):1 306-1 321
Zehr R M.1992.Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Western North Pacific[M].Washington:NOAA Technical Report NESDIS
Zehr R M.2002.Environmental vertical wind shear with Hurricane Bertha(1996)[J].Wea Forcasting,18:345-356