基于碳减排目标的省域碳生态补偿研究
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摘要
基于低碳社会背景和碳减排目标,通过构建生态补偿理论框架,设定补偿模式、衡量准则、标准和补偿系数,建立了省域横向碳生态补偿模型,并对各省份进行了量化实证。结果表明:(1) 2015年,各省(除云南外)碳排放均大于碳吸收量,净碳排放总量达274. 60×103万t;(2)碳排放水平在空间分布上呈从东至西递减的态势,而各省碳汇是造成地均碳排放和建设用地地均碳排放空间分布差异的主要原因;(3)区内14省超出生态补偿阈值2 635. 30万t,以最适补偿水平需支付163. 00亿元,16省未达到生态补偿阈值,可获补偿91. 11亿元;(4)受经济发展水平、生态资源本底、碳排放目标强度等因素影响,生态补偿结果与经济发展水平呈空间同质,整体呈"东付西补"的分布状态。最后从构建以中央为主导的生态补偿模式、建立碳收支账户和完善多样化补偿方式等角度对省域横向碳生态补偿制度的建设提出了建议,以求为政府制定相关政策提供参考。
Based on the background of a low-carbon socity and the premise of carbon reduction targets,This article established a provincial horizontal carbon ecological compensation model by constructing the theory framework of ecological compensation,which was set up with the compensation mode,the measurement criteria,the price and a compensation coefficient. Empirical quantitative results for each province showed that:( 1) In2015,the carbon emissions of all provinces( excluding Yunnan Province) in the study area were greater than carbon sinks,and the total net carbon emissions amounted to 2 746 million tons;( 2) The spatial distribution of carbon emissions showed a decreasing trend from east to west,and carbon sinks were the main reason for the spatial distribution differences between the carbon intensity of the land and the construction land in all provinces;( 3) Carbon emissions of 14 provinces in the region exceeded the ecological compensation threshold by 26. 353 million tons,and these provinces needed to pay 16. 3 billion yuan at the optimal compensation level. In the meanwhile,16 provinces had not reached the ecological compensation threshold and could receive compensation of 9. 111 billion yuan;( 4) Affected by factors such as the level of economic development,the capacity of ecological resources and the targets of carbon emission intensity, the ecological compensation results were spatially homogenous with the economic development,showing an overall distribution of "Eastern pays West". In the end, the article proposed suggestions on the establishment of provincial horizontal carbon ecological compensation system from the perspectives of building a ecological compensation mode dominated by the central government,setting up carbon revenue and expenditure accounts and improving diversified compensation methods,so as to provide reference for the government to formulate relevant policies.
Based on the background of a low-carbon socity and the premise of carbon reduction targets,This article established a provincial horizontal carbon ecological compensation model by constructing the theory framework of ecological compensation,which was set up with the compensation mode,the measurement criteria,the price and a compensation coefficient. Empirical quantitative results for each province showed that:( 1) In2015,the carbon emissions of all provinces( excluding Yunnan Province) in the study area were greater than carbon sinks,and the total net carbon emissions amounted to 2 746 million tons;( 2) The spatial distribution of carbon emissions showed a decreasing trend from east to west,and carbon sinks were the main reason for the spatial distribution differences between the carbon intensity of the land and the construction land in all provinces;( 3) Carbon emissions of 14 provinces in the region exceeded the ecological compensation threshold by 26. 353 million tons,and these provinces needed to pay 16. 3 billion yuan at the optimal compensation level. In the meanwhile,16 provinces had not reached the ecological compensation threshold and could receive compensation of 9. 111 billion yuan;( 4) Affected by factors such as the level of economic development,the capacity of ecological resources and the targets of carbon emission intensity, the ecological compensation results were spatially homogenous with the economic development,showing an overall distribution of "Eastern pays West". In the end, the article proposed suggestions on the establishment of provincial horizontal carbon ecological compensation system from the perspectives of building a ecological compensation mode dominated by the central government,setting up carbon revenue and expenditure accounts and improving diversified compensation methods,so as to provide reference for the government to formulate relevant policies.
引文
[1]余光辉,耿军军,周佩纯,等.基于碳平衡的区域生态补偿量化研究——以长株潭绿心昭山示范区为例[J].长江流域资源与环境,2012. 21(4):454-458.YU G H,GENG J J,ZHOU P C,et al. Quantitative research of regional ecological compensation based on carbon balance take Zhaoshan demonstration area of Changsha green heart as an example[J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2012. 21(4):454-458.
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[3] DUARTE C M,LOSADA I J,HENDRIKS I E,et al. The role of coastal plant communities for climate change mitigation and adaptation[J]. Nature Climate Change,2013,3(11):961-968.
[4] YU B,XU L,YANG Z. Ecological compensation for inundated habitats in hydropower developments based on carbon stock balance[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2016,114:334-342.
[5]赵荣钦,刘英,李宇翔,等.区域碳补偿研究综述:机制、模式及政策建议[J].地域研究与开发,2015,34(5):116-120.ZHAO R Q,LIU Y,LI Y X,et al. Overview of regional carbon compensation:mechanism,pattern and policy suggestions[J].Areal Research and Development,2015,34(5):116-120.
[6]邓明君,罗文兵,尹立娟.国外碳中和理论研究与实践发展述评[J].资源科学,2013,35(5):1084-1094.DENG M J,LUO W B,YI L J. A systematic review of international theory,research and practice on carbon neutrality[J].Resources Science,2013,35(5):1084-1094.
[7]赵荣钦,刘英,马林,等.基于碳收支核算的河南省县域空间横向碳补偿研究[J].自然资源学报,2016,31(10):1675-1687.ZHAO R Q,LIU Y,MA L,et al. County-level carbon compensation of Henan province based on carbon budget estimation[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2016,31(10):1675-1687.
[8] CARSON R T. Contingent valuation:a practical alternative when prices aren’t available[J]. Journal of Economic Perspectives,2012,26(4):27-42.
[9] WOOLF D,AMONETTE J E,STREETPERROTT F A,et al.Sustainable biochar to mitigate global climate change[J].Nature Communications,2011,1(5):56-64.
[10]陈煜,孙慧.天山北坡经济带碳排放空间差异及生态补偿研究[J].地域研究与开发,2014,33(4):136-141.CHEN Y,SUN H. Spatial difference of carbon emissions and ecological compensation in the economic belt on the northern slop of the Tianshan mountains[J]. Areal Research and Development,2014,33(4):136-141.
[11]孙贤斌.安徽省会经济圈土地利用变化的碳排放效益[J].自然资源学报,2012(3):394-401.SUN X B. Effects of carbon emission by land use patterns in hefei’s economic circle of Anhui province[J]. Journal of Natural Resources,2012(3):394-401.
[12]国家发展改革委国土开发与地区经济研究所课题组,贾若祥,高国力.地区间建立横向生态补偿制度研究[J].宏观经济研究,2015(3):13-23.Research Group of the National Development and Reform Commission, National Development and Regional Economic Research Institute,JIA R X,GAO Z L. Research on establishing horizontal ecological compensation system between regions[J]. Macroeconomics,2015(3):13-23.
[13]范明明,李文军.生态补偿理论研究进展及争论——基于生态与社会关系的思考[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(3):130-137.FAN M M,LI W J. Research progress and debate on the theory of payment for ecosystem services:based on the relationship between ecology and society[J]. China Population Resources and Environment,2017,27(3):130-137.
[14]张伟,张宏业,张义丰.基于“地理要素禀赋当量”的社会生态补偿标准测算[J].地理学报,2010,65(10):1253-1265.ZHANG W,ZHANG H Y,ZHANG Y F. The determination of social ecological compensation standard based on “equivalent value of geographical factor endowment”[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2010,65(10):1253-1265.
[15]刘春腊,刘卫东.中国生态补偿的省域差异及影响因素分析[J].自然资源学报,2014(7):1091-1104.LIU C L; LIU W D. Study on the provincial difference and influential factors of eco-compensation in China[J]. Journal of Natural Resources,2014(7):1091-1104.
[16] IPCC. 2006 IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories[EB/OL].(2010-06)[2018-06-02]http://www. ipccnggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/index.html.
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[18]张俊峰,张安录,董捷.武汉城市圈土地利用碳排放效应分析及因素分解研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2014,23(5):595-602.ZHANG J F,ZHANG A L,DONG J. Carbon emission effect of land use and influencing factors decomposition of carbon emission in Wuhan urban agglomeration[J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2014,23(5):595-602.
[19]王修兰.全球农作物对大气CO2及其倍增的吸收量估算[J].气象学报,1996,54(4):466-473.WANG X L. The estimation on crop absorbing CO2under curret and double CO2conditions in the world[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica,1996,54(4):466-473.
[20]黄祖辉,米松华.农业碳足迹研究——以浙江省为例[J].农业经济问题,2011(11):40-47.HUANG Z H,MI S H. Agricultural sector carbon footprint accounting:A case of Zhejiang,China[J]. Issues in Agricultural Economy,2011(11):40-47.
[21]方精云,郭兆迪,朴世龙,等. 1981~2000年中国陆地植被碳汇的估算[J].中国科学,2007,37(6):804-812.FANG J Y,GUO Z D,PIAO S L,et al. Estimation of carbon sink of terrestrial vegetation in China from 1981 to 2000[J].Science in China,2007,37(6):804-812.
[22]赵成义.陆地不同生态系统土壤呼吸及土壤碳循环研究[D].北京:中国农业科学院,2004.ZHAO C Y. Study on soil respiration and soil carbon cycle of different terrestrial ecosystem[D]. Beijing:Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,2004.
[23]王刚,张华兵,薛菲,等.成都市县域土地利用碳收支与经济发展关系研究[J].自然资源学报,2017,32(7):1170-1182.WANG G,ZHANG H B,XUE F,et al. Relations between land use carbon budget and economic development at county level in Chengdu city[J]. Journal of Natural Resources,2017,32(7):1170-1182.
[24]赖力.中国土地利用的碳排放效应研究[D].南京:南京大学出版社,2011.LAI L. Carbon emission of land use in China[D]. Nanjing:Nanjing University Press,2011.
[25]国务院.“十三五”控制温室气体排放工作方案[EB/OL].(2016-10-27)[2018-06-02]http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/2016-11/04/content_5128619.htm.THE STATE COUNCIL. The 13th five-year work plan for controlling greenhouse gas emissions[EB/OL].(2016-10-27)[2018-06-02]http://www. gov. cn/zhengce/content/2016-11/04/content_5128619.htm.
[26]谢高地,李士美,肖玉,等.碳汇价值的形成和评价[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(1):1-10.XIE G D,LI S M,XIAO Y,et al. Value of carbon sink:concept and evaluation[J]. Journal of Natural Resources,2011,26(1):1-10.
[27] THUY P T,CAMPBELL B M,GARNETT S. Lessons for propoor payments for environmental services:An analysis of projects in Vietnam[J]. Asia Pacific Journal of Public Administration,2009,31(2):117-133.
[28]夏炎,范英.基于减排成本曲线演化的碳减排策略研究[J].中国软科学,2012(3):12-22.XIA Y,FAN Y. Study on emission reduction strategy based on evolutive CO2abatement cost curve[J]. China Soft Science,2012(3):12-22.
[29] LU F,HU H,SUN W,et al. Effects of national ecological restoration projects on carbon sequestration in China from 2001to 2010[J]. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A,2018,115(16):4039-4044.
[30]李金昌.生态价值论[M].重庆:重庆大学出版社,1999.LI J C. Ecological value theory[M]. Chongqing:Chongqing University Press,1999.
[31]欧阳志云,靳乐山.面向生态补偿的生态系统生产总值(GEP)和生态资产核算[M].北京:科学出版社,2018.OU Y Z Y,JIN L S. Developing gross ecosystem product and ecological asset accounting for eco-compensation[M]. Beijing:Science China Press,2018.
[2]牛文元.建立国家碳补偿制度[EB/OL].(2011-03-08)[2018-06-02] http://www. cppcc. gov. cn/2011/10/12/ARTI1318404684609263.shtml.NIU W Y. Setting up the national carbon compensation system[EB/OL].(2011-03-08)[2018-06-02]http://www. cppcc.gov.cn/2011/10/12/ARTI1318404684609263.shtml.
[3] DUARTE C M,LOSADA I J,HENDRIKS I E,et al. The role of coastal plant communities for climate change mitigation and adaptation[J]. Nature Climate Change,2013,3(11):961-968.
[4] YU B,XU L,YANG Z. Ecological compensation for inundated habitats in hydropower developments based on carbon stock balance[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2016,114:334-342.
[5]赵荣钦,刘英,李宇翔,等.区域碳补偿研究综述:机制、模式及政策建议[J].地域研究与开发,2015,34(5):116-120.ZHAO R Q,LIU Y,LI Y X,et al. Overview of regional carbon compensation:mechanism,pattern and policy suggestions[J].Areal Research and Development,2015,34(5):116-120.
[6]邓明君,罗文兵,尹立娟.国外碳中和理论研究与实践发展述评[J].资源科学,2013,35(5):1084-1094.DENG M J,LUO W B,YI L J. A systematic review of international theory,research and practice on carbon neutrality[J].Resources Science,2013,35(5):1084-1094.
[7]赵荣钦,刘英,马林,等.基于碳收支核算的河南省县域空间横向碳补偿研究[J].自然资源学报,2016,31(10):1675-1687.ZHAO R Q,LIU Y,MA L,et al. County-level carbon compensation of Henan province based on carbon budget estimation[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2016,31(10):1675-1687.
[8] CARSON R T. Contingent valuation:a practical alternative when prices aren’t available[J]. Journal of Economic Perspectives,2012,26(4):27-42.
[9] WOOLF D,AMONETTE J E,STREETPERROTT F A,et al.Sustainable biochar to mitigate global climate change[J].Nature Communications,2011,1(5):56-64.
[10]陈煜,孙慧.天山北坡经济带碳排放空间差异及生态补偿研究[J].地域研究与开发,2014,33(4):136-141.CHEN Y,SUN H. Spatial difference of carbon emissions and ecological compensation in the economic belt on the northern slop of the Tianshan mountains[J]. Areal Research and Development,2014,33(4):136-141.
[11]孙贤斌.安徽省会经济圈土地利用变化的碳排放效益[J].自然资源学报,2012(3):394-401.SUN X B. Effects of carbon emission by land use patterns in hefei’s economic circle of Anhui province[J]. Journal of Natural Resources,2012(3):394-401.
[12]国家发展改革委国土开发与地区经济研究所课题组,贾若祥,高国力.地区间建立横向生态补偿制度研究[J].宏观经济研究,2015(3):13-23.Research Group of the National Development and Reform Commission, National Development and Regional Economic Research Institute,JIA R X,GAO Z L. Research on establishing horizontal ecological compensation system between regions[J]. Macroeconomics,2015(3):13-23.
[13]范明明,李文军.生态补偿理论研究进展及争论——基于生态与社会关系的思考[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(3):130-137.FAN M M,LI W J. Research progress and debate on the theory of payment for ecosystem services:based on the relationship between ecology and society[J]. China Population Resources and Environment,2017,27(3):130-137.
[14]张伟,张宏业,张义丰.基于“地理要素禀赋当量”的社会生态补偿标准测算[J].地理学报,2010,65(10):1253-1265.ZHANG W,ZHANG H Y,ZHANG Y F. The determination of social ecological compensation standard based on “equivalent value of geographical factor endowment”[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2010,65(10):1253-1265.
[15]刘春腊,刘卫东.中国生态补偿的省域差异及影响因素分析[J].自然资源学报,2014(7):1091-1104.LIU C L; LIU W D. Study on the provincial difference and influential factors of eco-compensation in China[J]. Journal of Natural Resources,2014(7):1091-1104.
[16] IPCC. 2006 IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories[EB/OL].(2010-06)[2018-06-02]http://www. ipccnggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/index.html.
[17]世界资源研究所.城市温室气体核算工具2. 0[EB/OL].(2015-04-02)[2018-06-02]http://www. wri. org. cn/node/41204.WRI. Urban greenhouse gas accounting tools 2. 0[EB/OL].(2015-04-02)[2018-06-02]http://www. wri. org. cn/node/41204.
[18]张俊峰,张安录,董捷.武汉城市圈土地利用碳排放效应分析及因素分解研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2014,23(5):595-602.ZHANG J F,ZHANG A L,DONG J. Carbon emission effect of land use and influencing factors decomposition of carbon emission in Wuhan urban agglomeration[J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2014,23(5):595-602.
[19]王修兰.全球农作物对大气CO2及其倍增的吸收量估算[J].气象学报,1996,54(4):466-473.WANG X L. The estimation on crop absorbing CO2under curret and double CO2conditions in the world[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica,1996,54(4):466-473.
[20]黄祖辉,米松华.农业碳足迹研究——以浙江省为例[J].农业经济问题,2011(11):40-47.HUANG Z H,MI S H. Agricultural sector carbon footprint accounting:A case of Zhejiang,China[J]. Issues in Agricultural Economy,2011(11):40-47.
[21]方精云,郭兆迪,朴世龙,等. 1981~2000年中国陆地植被碳汇的估算[J].中国科学,2007,37(6):804-812.FANG J Y,GUO Z D,PIAO S L,et al. Estimation of carbon sink of terrestrial vegetation in China from 1981 to 2000[J].Science in China,2007,37(6):804-812.
[22]赵成义.陆地不同生态系统土壤呼吸及土壤碳循环研究[D].北京:中国农业科学院,2004.ZHAO C Y. Study on soil respiration and soil carbon cycle of different terrestrial ecosystem[D]. Beijing:Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,2004.
[23]王刚,张华兵,薛菲,等.成都市县域土地利用碳收支与经济发展关系研究[J].自然资源学报,2017,32(7):1170-1182.WANG G,ZHANG H B,XUE F,et al. Relations between land use carbon budget and economic development at county level in Chengdu city[J]. Journal of Natural Resources,2017,32(7):1170-1182.
[24]赖力.中国土地利用的碳排放效应研究[D].南京:南京大学出版社,2011.LAI L. Carbon emission of land use in China[D]. Nanjing:Nanjing University Press,2011.
[25]国务院.“十三五”控制温室气体排放工作方案[EB/OL].(2016-10-27)[2018-06-02]http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/2016-11/04/content_5128619.htm.THE STATE COUNCIL. The 13th five-year work plan for controlling greenhouse gas emissions[EB/OL].(2016-10-27)[2018-06-02]http://www. gov. cn/zhengce/content/2016-11/04/content_5128619.htm.
[26]谢高地,李士美,肖玉,等.碳汇价值的形成和评价[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(1):1-10.XIE G D,LI S M,XIAO Y,et al. Value of carbon sink:concept and evaluation[J]. Journal of Natural Resources,2011,26(1):1-10.
[27] THUY P T,CAMPBELL B M,GARNETT S. Lessons for propoor payments for environmental services:An analysis of projects in Vietnam[J]. Asia Pacific Journal of Public Administration,2009,31(2):117-133.
[28]夏炎,范英.基于减排成本曲线演化的碳减排策略研究[J].中国软科学,2012(3):12-22.XIA Y,FAN Y. Study on emission reduction strategy based on evolutive CO2abatement cost curve[J]. China Soft Science,2012(3):12-22.
[29] LU F,HU H,SUN W,et al. Effects of national ecological restoration projects on carbon sequestration in China from 2001to 2010[J]. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A,2018,115(16):4039-4044.
[30]李金昌.生态价值论[M].重庆:重庆大学出版社,1999.LI J C. Ecological value theory[M]. Chongqing:Chongqing University Press,1999.
[31]欧阳志云,靳乐山.面向生态补偿的生态系统生产总值(GEP)和生态资产核算[M].北京:科学出版社,2018.OU Y Z Y,JIN L S. Developing gross ecosystem product and ecological asset accounting for eco-compensation[M]. Beijing:Science China Press,2018.