中非农产品贸易在1992—2017年变化特征分析及政策建议
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摘要
近年来,中非农产品贸易规模在显著增长的同时,呈现出新的趋势和特征。在深入分析中非农产品贸易在1992—2017年变化的基础上,测算中非农产品贸易的国际竞争力和互补性。研究表明:中非农产品贸易整体呈现增长趋势,在双方农产品贸易中的重要性显著提升。然而,中非农产品贸易面临突出的结构性问题,双边农产品贸易的互补性程度不断降低,将显著制约中非农产品贸易增长潜力。这种贸易结构特征表明:单纯依靠贸易促进的方式已难以有效促进中非农产品贸易增长,亟需在生产技术、装备和能力等方面开展更深层次的交流与合作。
Accompanying the rapid growth of Sino-Africa agricultural trade,a series of new trends and characteristics have emerged recently,which are worth in-depth study.Based on the analysis of the changes in agricultural trade between 1992 and 2017,the indexes of competitiveness and complementariness between China and Africa are calculated and compared.The result indicates that the agricultural trade between China and Africa has increased dramatically after 2000 and the shares of bilateral agricultural trade in individual agricultural trade have also risen remarkably.However,the bilateral agricultural trade is confronted with the notable structural problem.The complementariness is relatively low and drops constantly in recent years,which will constrain the growth potential in the future.The findings have important policy implications.It means the current trade promotion policy could not stimulate the growth of bilateral trade alone,and that more endeavors are urgently needed to enhance the cooperation in production technology,equipment and capacities.
Accompanying the rapid growth of Sino-Africa agricultural trade,a series of new trends and characteristics have emerged recently,which are worth in-depth study.Based on the analysis of the changes in agricultural trade between 1992 and 2017,the indexes of competitiveness and complementariness between China and Africa are calculated and compared.The result indicates that the agricultural trade between China and Africa has increased dramatically after 2000 and the shares of bilateral agricultural trade in individual agricultural trade have also risen remarkably.However,the bilateral agricultural trade is confronted with the notable structural problem.The complementariness is relatively low and drops constantly in recent years,which will constrain the growth potential in the future.The findings have important policy implications.It means the current trade promotion policy could not stimulate the growth of bilateral trade alone,and that more endeavors are urgently needed to enhance the cooperation in production technology,equipment and capacities.
引文
[1]刘林青,周潞.非洲农产品的国际竞争力及与中国贸易互补性分析[J].国际贸易问题,2010(4):40-48.
[2]孙东升,刘合光,周爱莲.中非农产品贸易的结构与特征[J].中国农村经济,2007(11):15-25.
[3]徐徐.中非农业合作的现状及其前景[J].国际贸易问题,2009(11):41-46.
[4]刘曰峰.非洲对华农产品贸易现状及区域分异研究——基于2000—2010年中国与非洲五区38国的面板数据[D].青岛:中国海洋大学,2012.
[5]黄梅波,范修礼.中非经贸关系:现状、问题与对策[J].国际经济合作,2009(10):14-18.
[6]杨军,杨文倩,李明,等.中非农产品贸易结构变化趋势、比较优势及互补性分析[J].中国农村经济,2012(3):44-52.
[7]王伶.中国与非洲贸易的比较优势和互补性实证分析[J].价格月刊,2015(8):28-31.
[8]李先德.中非农产品贸易发展现状及前景展望[J].农业展望,2018,14(3):93-97.
[9]杨静,陈晓梅.中国与非洲农产品贸易的特点与发展潜力[J].世界农业,2018(9):23-27.
[10]李昊,黄季焜.中非农产品贸易:发展现状及影响因素实证研究[J].经济问题探索,2016(4):142-149.
[11]崔春晓,李建民,孟夏.中非农产品贸易互补性及贸易影响因素分析[J].广东农业科学,2013,40(24):232-236.
(1)中非合作论坛-北京行动计划(2019-2021年)。来自https://www.focac.org/chn/zywx/zywj/t1592247.htm
[2]孙东升,刘合光,周爱莲.中非农产品贸易的结构与特征[J].中国农村经济,2007(11):15-25.
[3]徐徐.中非农业合作的现状及其前景[J].国际贸易问题,2009(11):41-46.
[4]刘曰峰.非洲对华农产品贸易现状及区域分异研究——基于2000—2010年中国与非洲五区38国的面板数据[D].青岛:中国海洋大学,2012.
[5]黄梅波,范修礼.中非经贸关系:现状、问题与对策[J].国际经济合作,2009(10):14-18.
[6]杨军,杨文倩,李明,等.中非农产品贸易结构变化趋势、比较优势及互补性分析[J].中国农村经济,2012(3):44-52.
[7]王伶.中国与非洲贸易的比较优势和互补性实证分析[J].价格月刊,2015(8):28-31.
[8]李先德.中非农产品贸易发展现状及前景展望[J].农业展望,2018,14(3):93-97.
[9]杨静,陈晓梅.中国与非洲农产品贸易的特点与发展潜力[J].世界农业,2018(9):23-27.
[10]李昊,黄季焜.中非农产品贸易:发展现状及影响因素实证研究[J].经济问题探索,2016(4):142-149.
[11]崔春晓,李建民,孟夏.中非农产品贸易互补性及贸易影响因素分析[J].广东农业科学,2013,40(24):232-236.
(1)中非合作论坛-北京行动计划(2019-2021年)。来自https://www.focac.org/chn/zywx/zywj/t1592247.htm