元谋干热河谷区近60年干湿状况和气温变化特征分析
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摘要
为了探寻近60 a干热河谷区干(平均湿度、相对湿度指数)热(气温)状况的变化特征,选取干热河谷区有代表性的元谋气象站采集的温度、湿度等微气象数据计算该地区参考作物腾发量和相对湿润指数,利用线性倾向估计法、Mann-Kendall法和滑动t检验法进行趋势和突变分析.结果表明:在年和四季尺度上,平均湿度呈上升趋势,四季平均湿度从大到小依次为夏季、秋季、冬季、春季,气候倾向率从大到小依次为冬季(1.99%/10 a)、春季(1.43%/10 a)、秋季(1.21%/10 a)、夏季(0.93%/10 a);四季平均气温和最低气温均呈现下降趋势,气温关系从高到低均为夏季、春季、秋季、冬季,气候倾向率关系从大到小均为春季、冬季、夏季、秋季;最高气温在春季最大且呈现微弱下降的趋势,年尺度和其他季度尺度上呈现上升趋势,冬季上升幅度最大.元谋干热河谷区朝着湿润降温的方向发展,干旱状况虽有所缓解,但依然严峻,冬季和春季是元谋抗旱的关键阶段.
In order to study the characteristics of the dry-hot conditions in recent 60 years in Yuanmou dry-hot valleys( DHV) area,the micro-meteorological data collected from the Yuanmou Meteorological Station were selected to calculate the reference crop evapotranspiration and relative moisture index. Trend and mutation were calculated and analyzed by linear propensity estimation method,Mann-Kendall method and sliding t-test method. The results show that the average humidity is increasing in the annual and seasonal scale,seasonal average humidity size is summer > autumn > winter > spring.Climate tendency rate size is winter( 1. 99%/10 a) > spring( 1. 43%/10 a) > autumn( 1. 21%/10 a) > summer( 0. 93%/10 a). The seasonal average temperature and the minimum temperature showa trend of decline,summer > spring > autumn > winter. Climatic tendency rate in the following order: spring > winter > summer > autumn. The maximum temperature in summer is the highest and the trend is decreasing. On the annual and other seasonal scales showed a trend of decline. The biggest temperature increases in spring. Yuanmou dry-hot valleys( DHV) area towards the direction of the development of wet and cooling,the drought situation has eased. The drought situation is still grim,spring and summer are the key stage of drought resistance.
In order to study the characteristics of the dry-hot conditions in recent 60 years in Yuanmou dry-hot valleys( DHV) area,the micro-meteorological data collected from the Yuanmou Meteorological Station were selected to calculate the reference crop evapotranspiration and relative moisture index. Trend and mutation were calculated and analyzed by linear propensity estimation method,Mann-Kendall method and sliding t-test method. The results show that the average humidity is increasing in the annual and seasonal scale,seasonal average humidity size is summer > autumn > winter > spring.Climate tendency rate size is winter( 1. 99%/10 a) > spring( 1. 43%/10 a) > autumn( 1. 21%/10 a) > summer( 0. 93%/10 a). The seasonal average temperature and the minimum temperature showa trend of decline,summer > spring > autumn > winter. Climatic tendency rate in the following order: spring > winter > summer > autumn. The maximum temperature in summer is the highest and the trend is decreasing. On the annual and other seasonal scales showed a trend of decline. The biggest temperature increases in spring. Yuanmou dry-hot valleys( DHV) area towards the direction of the development of wet and cooling,the drought situation has eased. The drought situation is still grim,spring and summer are the key stage of drought resistance.
引文
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[2]KOSAKA Y,XIE S P.Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial pacific surface cooling[J].Nature,2013,501(7467):403-407.
[3]HEREHER M E.Recent trends of temperature and precipitation proxies in Saudi Arabia:implications for climate change[J].Arab journal of geosciences,2016,9(11):1-9.
[4]陆阳,尹剑,邹逸江,等.淮河流域近50年来气候变化及突变分析[J].世界科技研究与发展,2016,38(4):814-820.LU Yang,YIN Jian,ZOU Yijiang,et al.Analysis of climate change and mutation in Huaihe River Basin during last 50 years[J].World sci-tech r&d,2016,38(4):814-820.(in Chinese)
[5]蒋忆文,张喜风,杨礼箫,等.黑河上游气象与水文干旱指数时空变化特征对比分析[J].资源科学,2014,36(9):1842-1851.JIANG Yiwen,ZHANG Xifeng,YANG Lixiao,et al.Analysis and comparison of spatial and temporal patterns of meteorological and hydrological drought indices in the upper reach of the Heihe River watershed,Northwest China[J].Resources science,2014,36(9):1842-1851.(in Chinese)
[6]康磊,刘世荣,刘宪钊.岷江上游水文气象因子多尺度周期性分析[J].生态学报,2016,36(5):1-10.KANG Lei,LIU Shirong,LIU Xianzhao.Multiresolution and periodicity analysis of hydrological and meteorological factors in upper reaches of Minjiang River[J].Acta ecoloeica sinica,2016,36(5):1-10.(in Chinese)
[7]徐宗学,巩同梁,赵芳芳.近40年来西藏高原气候变化特征分析[J].亚热带资源与环境学报,2006,1(3):24-32.XU Zongxue,GONG Tongliang,ZHAO Fangfang.Analysis of climate change in Tibetan plateau over the past 40years[J].Journal of subtropicalresources and environment,2006,1(3):24-32.(in Chinese)
[8]符传博,吴涧,丹利.近50年云南省雨日及降水量的气候变化[J].高原气象,2011,30(4):1027-1033.FU Chuanbo,WU Jian,DAN Li.Climatic changes of rainfall and rain days in Yunnan province[J].Plateau meteorology,2011,30(4):1027-1033.(in Chinese)
[9]WANG H,CHEN Y,XUN S,et al.Changes in daily climate extremes in the arid area of northwestern China[J].Theoretical and applied climatology,2012,112(12):15-28.
[10]王静茹,马龙,刘廷玺,等.1951—2012年科尔沁沙地气温在突变前后的时空对比[J].资源科学,2016,38(4):690-703.WANG Jingru,MA Long,LIU Tingxi,et al.Comparative analysis of temperature before and after abrupt changes in Horqin Sandy Land from 1951 to 2012[J].Resources science,2016,38(4):690-703.(in Chinese)
[11]徐利岗,周宏飞,杜历,等.1951—2008年中国西北干旱区降水时空变化及其趋势[J].中国沙漠,2015,35(3):724-734.XU Ligang,ZHOU Hongfei,DU Li,et al.Spatio-temporal change and trend of precipitation in northwest China during 1951—2008[J].Journal of desert research,2015,35(3):724-734.(in Chinese)
[12]赵先丽,张淑杰,蔡福,等.辽宁省日光温室内最高和最低气温预报[J].江苏农业科学,2017,45(16):276-282.ZHAO Xianli,ZHANG Shujie,CAI Fu,et al.The prediction of the maximum and minimum temperature in the solar greenhouse in Liaoning[J].Jiangsu agricultural sciences,2017,45(16):276-282.(in Chinese)
[13]王晓莹,杨丹,邵银龙.南京市近60年气候变化特征分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2016,27(4):119-124.WANG Xiaoying,YANG Dan,SHAO Yinlong.Analysis on climatic variation characteristics of Nanjing city during the past 60 years[J].Journal of water resources and water engineering,2016,27(4):119-124.(in Chinese)
[14]何云玲,鲁枝海.近60年昆明市气候变化特征分析[J].地理科学,2012,32(9):1119-1125.HE Yunling,LU Zhihai.Climate change trends and characteristics of Kunming in recent 60 years[J].Scientia geographica sinica,2012,32(9):1119-1125.(in Chinese)
[15]张荣祖,郑度,杨勤生.横断山区干旱河谷[M].北京:科学出版社,1992.
[16]明庆忠.三江并流区地貌与环境效应[M].北京:科学出版社,2008.
[17]明庆忠,史正涛.三江并流区干热河谷成因新探析[J].中国沙漠,2007,27(1):99-104.MING Qingzhong,SHI Zhengtao.New discussion on dry valley formation in the three Parallel rivers region[J].Journal of desert research,2007,27(1):99-104.(in Chinese)
[18]顾世祥,何大明,李远华,等.金沙江河谷灌溉需水转折趋势分析[J].水科学进展,2008,19(3):352-360.GU Shixiang,HE Daming,LI Yuanhua,et al.Agriculture irrigation water requirements change and R/S analysis of Jinshajiang dry-arid valley in recent 40 years[J].Advances in water science,2008,19(3):352-360.(in Chinese)
[19]万梦丹,刘小刚,徐航,等.不同灌水和光强条件下小粒咖啡叶片光响应及光合生理特征[J].排灌机械工程学报,2016,34(9):795-803.WAN Mengdan,LIU Xiaogang,XU Hang,et al.Light response and photosynthetic physiology characteristics of coffea arabica L.leaf at different irrigation and light intensity levels[J].Journal of drainage and irrigation machinery engineering,2016,34(9):795-803.(in Chinese)
[20]王学锋,吉文娟,张茂松,等.近53年来云南干热河谷热量资源变化的比较性特征[J].长江流域资源与环境,2015,24(Z1):92-97.WANG Xuefeng,JI Wenjuan,ZHANG Maosong,et al.Comparative characteristics of heat resources in Yuanmou province in recent 53 years[J].Resources and environment in the Yangtze basin,2015,24(Z1):92-97.(in Chinese)
[21]ALLEN R G,PEREIRA L S,RAES D,et al.Crop evapotranspiration-guidelines for computing crop water requirements[M].Rome:Food and agriculture organization of United Nation,1998.
[22]申双和,张方敏,盛琼.1975—2004年中国湿润指数时空变化特征[J].农业工程学报,2009,25(1):11-15.SHEN Shuanghe,ZHANG Fangmin,SHENG Qiong.Spatio-temporal changes of wetness index in China from 1975 to 2004[J].Transactions of the CASE,2009,25(1):11-15.(in Chinese)
[23]刘艳伟,李闯,符娜,等.元谋干热河谷地区ET0特征及其影响因子分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(10):172-177.LIU Yanwei,LI Chuang,FU Na,et al.Trend of reference crop evapotranspiration and its main meteorological impact factors in yuanmou dry-hot valleys during the last 57 years[J].Journal of arid land resources and environment,2015,29(10):172-177.(in Chinese)