长三角地区能源消费氮氧化物排放的影响因素分解与预测研究
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摘要
文章基于长三角地区各省份的能源平衡表,采用排放因子法,对长三角地区2000—2014年能源消费氮氧化物排放量进行了核算,并应用LMDI法对长三角地区历年氮氧化物排放量和氮氧化物排放强度及其变化的因素进行了时间序列分析。为了定量分析长三角地区能源消费氮氧化物排放的影响因素,利用STIRPAT模型,分析长三角地区能源消费氮氧化物排放量与人口、富裕度、技术进步和城镇化水平之间的关系,通过岭回归模拟后发现,人口数量、人均GDP、能源强度、城市化水平每变化1%,长三角地区能源消费氮氧化物排放量将分别发生3.12%、0.0068%、-0.45%、0.49%的变化。在以上研究的基础上,设置8种不同的发展情景,分析了长三角地区未来能源消费氮氧化物排放量的发展趋势。
Based on the energy balance table of the provinces(cities) in the Yangtze River Delta, this paper uses the emission factor method to calculate the nitrogen oxides emissions of the Yangtze River Delta from 2000 to 2014, and apply the LMDI method to the Yangtze River Delta Nitrogen oxide emissions and nitrogen oxide emission intensity and its changes in the factors of time series analysis. In order to quantitatively analyze the influencing factors of nitrogen consumption in energy consumption in the Yangtze River Delta region, the STIRPAT model was used to analyze the energy consumption of nitrogen oxides in the Yangtze River Delta and the population, the wealth, technological progress and the level of urbanization. Through ridge regression simulation, it is found that every 1% change in population, per capita GDP, energy intensity and urbanization level, the emissions of nitrogen oxides from energy consumption in the Yangtze River Delta will change by 3.12%, 0.006 8%, 0.45% and 0.49% respectively. On the basis of the above research, the different development scenarios are set up, and the development trend of future nitrogen consumption of nitrogen in the Yangtze River Delta is analyzed.
Based on the energy balance table of the provinces(cities) in the Yangtze River Delta, this paper uses the emission factor method to calculate the nitrogen oxides emissions of the Yangtze River Delta from 2000 to 2014, and apply the LMDI method to the Yangtze River Delta Nitrogen oxide emissions and nitrogen oxide emission intensity and its changes in the factors of time series analysis. In order to quantitatively analyze the influencing factors of nitrogen consumption in energy consumption in the Yangtze River Delta region, the STIRPAT model was used to analyze the energy consumption of nitrogen oxides in the Yangtze River Delta and the population, the wealth, technological progress and the level of urbanization. Through ridge regression simulation, it is found that every 1% change in population, per capita GDP, energy intensity and urbanization level, the emissions of nitrogen oxides from energy consumption in the Yangtze River Delta will change by 3.12%, 0.006 8%, 0.45% and 0.49% respectively. On the basis of the above research, the different development scenarios are set up, and the development trend of future nitrogen consumption of nitrogen in the Yangtze River Delta is analyzed.
引文
[1]杨玉文,刘大志.少数民族自治州经济发展路径探讨[J].云南民族大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2015(2):122-126.
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[14]刁贝娣,曾克峰,苏攀达,等.中国工业氮氧化物排放的时空分布特征及驱动因素分析[J].资源科学,2016(9):1768-1779.
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[19]施亚岚,崔胜辉,许肃,等.中国产业能源消费氮氧化物排放影响因素分析[J].环境科学与技术,2014(34):355-361.
[20]Akimoto H,Ohara T,Kurokawa J,et al.Verification of energy consumption in China during 1996-2003 by using satellite observational data[J].Atmospheric Environment,2006,40:7663-7667.
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[22]刘通浩.中国电力行业NOx排放控制成本效益分析[D].北京:清华大学,2012.
[2]Bosch H,Janssen F.ChemInform Abstract:Catalytic reduction of nitrogen oxides.A review on the fundamental and technology[J].Cheminform,1988,2(4):369-531.
[3]Miller J A,Bowman C T.Mechanism and modeling of nitrogen chemistry in combustion[J].Progress in Energy&Combustion Science,1989,15(4):287-338.
[4]张楚莹,王书肖,邢佳,等.中国能源相关的氮氧化物排放现状与发展趋势分析[J].环境科学学报,2008(12):2470-2479.
[5]王丽琼.基于环境学习曲线的氮氧化物排放减排区域分解研究[J].泉州师范学院学报,2012(6):63-66.
[6]Velders G J M,Granier C,Portmann R W,et al.Global tropospheric NO2 column distributions:Comparing threedimensional model calculations with GOME measurements[J].Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2001,106(12):12643-12660.
[7]Cheng M M,Jiang H,Guo Z.Evaluation of long-term tropospheric NO2 columns and the effect of different ecosystem in Yangtze River Delta[J].Procedia Environmental Sciences,2012,13(8):1045-1056.
[8]Wang S,Li Q,Fang C,et al.The relationship between economic growth,energy consumption,and CO2 emissions:Empirical evidence from China[J].Science of the Total Environment,2016,542:360-371.
[9]Geng Y,Wang M,Sarkis J,et al.Spatial-temporal patterns and driving factors for industrial waste water emission in China[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2014,76(4):116-124.
[10]稂小洛,曹国良,黄学敏.中国区域氮氧化物排放清单[J].环境与可持续发展,2008(6):19-21.
[11]霍金炜,杨德刚,唐宏.新疆碳排放影响因素分析与政策建议[J].地理科学进展,2012(4):435-441.
[12]孙秀艳.氮氧化物减排为何滞后?[N].人民日报,2014-03-01(09).
[13]陈祖海,雷朱家华,刘驰.民族地区能源开发与经济增长效率研究--基于“资源诅咒”假说[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015(6):98-106.
[14]刁贝娣,曾克峰,苏攀达,等.中国工业氮氧化物排放的时空分布特征及驱动因素分析[J].资源科学,2016(9):1768-1779.
[15]田贺忠,郝吉明,陆永琪.中国商品能源消耗导致的氮氧化物排放量[J].环境科学,2001(6):24-28.
[16]郝吉明,马广大,王书肖.大气污染控制工程[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2002.
[17]李绍辉.氮氧化物排放控制的探讨[J].华北电力技术,2007(11):1-4.
[18]李晓东,杨卓如.国外氮氧化物气体治理的研究进展[J].环境工程,1996(2):34-39.
[19]施亚岚,崔胜辉,许肃,等.中国产业能源消费氮氧化物排放影响因素分析[J].环境科学与技术,2014(34):355-361.
[20]Akimoto H,Ohara T,Kurokawa J,et al.Verification of energy consumption in China during 1996-2003 by using satellite observational data[J].Atmospheric Environment,2006,40:7663-7667.
[21]Zhang Q,David S,He K B,et al.NOx emission trends for China,1995-2004:The view from the ground and the view from space[J].Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2007,112(D22):8684.
[22]刘通浩.中国电力行业NOx排放控制成本效益分析[D].北京:清华大学,2012.