消费倾向变动对初次收入分配结构的调整机制
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摘要
为了解决消费倾向变动与国民初次收入分配结构中初次收入分配子项目和分配结构调整机制的影响关系,本文通过构建基于投入产出模型的初次收入分配模型,计算出消费倾向、消费结构、投资倾向、投资结构、产业结构、生产直接消耗系数、要素价格在初次收入分配结构中的作用程度。通过研究发现,消费倾向的提高,能够推动劳动力和资本从低报酬率产业向高报酬率产业转移,从低效率产业向高效率产业转移,进而通过要素价格的调整,推动各产业的劳动报酬系数、营业盈余系数、固定资产折旧系数和生产税净额系数不断调整,形成新的国内收入分配结构和产业结构。研究结论对当前我国经济结构调整具有理论意义。
This study investigates the relationship between the change of propensity to consume and primary income distribution structure,as well as the influencing degree between them in the economic development mode,to determine the propensity to consume and the influencing relation between the primary income distribution subproject and distribution structure adjustment mechanism in the distribution structure of national initial income. Using input-output theory,we calculate the relationship between propensity to consume,consumption structure,investment propensity,investment structure,industrial structure,direct consumption coefficient of production,and element price in the primary income distribution structure. According to our findings,the increase of propensity to consume promotes labor and capital transfer from industries with a low rate of return to those with a high rate of return. Then,by adjusting factor price,labor remuneration in every industry is promoted; and operating surplus coefficient,depreciation coefficient of fixed assets,and net production tax coefficient are adjusted continuously,thereby forming new domestic income distribution and industrial structures. The conclusions of the study have theoretical significance for the current economic restructuring of China.
This study investigates the relationship between the change of propensity to consume and primary income distribution structure,as well as the influencing degree between them in the economic development mode,to determine the propensity to consume and the influencing relation between the primary income distribution subproject and distribution structure adjustment mechanism in the distribution structure of national initial income. Using input-output theory,we calculate the relationship between propensity to consume,consumption structure,investment propensity,investment structure,industrial structure,direct consumption coefficient of production,and element price in the primary income distribution structure. According to our findings,the increase of propensity to consume promotes labor and capital transfer from industries with a low rate of return to those with a high rate of return. Then,by adjusting factor price,labor remuneration in every industry is promoted; and operating surplus coefficient,depreciation coefficient of fixed assets,and net production tax coefficient are adjusted continuously,thereby forming new domestic income distribution and industrial structures. The conclusions of the study have theoretical significance for the current economic restructuring of China.
引文
[1]周志莹,梁俊伟.我国初次收入分配失衡分析及对策研究[J].当代经济管理,2015,37(6):6-12.ZHOU Zhiying,LIANG Junwei. The analysis and suggestionsfor the primary income distribution imbalance in China[J]. Contemporary economic management,2015,37(6):6-12.
[2]王小华,温涛,朱炯.习惯形成、收入结构失衡与农村居民消费行为演化研究[J].经济学动态,2016(10):39-49.
[3]张车伟,赵文.中国劳动报酬份额问题——基于雇员经济与自雇经济的测算与分析[J].中国社会科学,2015(12):90-112,206-207.ZHANG Juwei,ZHAO Wen. The question of labor share in china:an estimate and analysis based on the employee economy and the self-employment economy[J]. Social sciences in China,2015(12):90-112,206-207.
[4]乔榛.收入分配的逆向转移:中国收入差距扩大的特殊机理[J].学习与探索,2013(6):86-91.
[5]白重恩,唐燕华,张琼.中国隐性收入规模估计——基于扩展消费支出模型及数据的解读[J].经济研究,2015,50(6):4-18.BAI Chongen,TANG Yanhua,ZHANG Qiong. An extended expenditure-based estimation of income underreporting and size of black economy in China[J]. Economic research journal,2015,50(6):4-18.
[6]张车伟,蔡翼飞.中国“十三五”时期劳动供给和需求预测及缺口分析[J].人口研究,2016,40(1):38-56.ZHANG Juwei,CAI Yifei. Forecasting China's labor supply and demand and the unemployment structure in the 13th five-year-plan period[J]. Population research, 2016,40(1):38-56.
[7]杨巨.关于提高劳动收入比重的思考[J].宏观经济管理,2013(5):73-74.
[8]陈宗胜,高玉伟.论我国居民收入分配格局变动及橄榄形格局的实现条件[J].经济学家,2015(1):30-41.
[9]许宪春.准确理解中国的收入、消费和投资[J].中国社会科学,2013(2):4-24,204.XU Xianchun. Accurately understanding the income,consumption and investment in China[J]. Social sciences in China,2013(2):4-24,204.
[10]DEBOWICZ D. Poverty,income distribution and cge micro-simulation modelling:does individual behaviour matter?[R]. Washington DC:International Food Policy Research Institute(IFPRI),2012.
[11]CAI Fang,WANG Meiyan. Growth and structural changes in employment in transition China[J]. Journal of comparative economics,2010,38(1):71-81.
[12]BOCCANFUSO D,SAVARD L. A segmented labour supply model estimation for the construction of a CGE microsimulation model:an application to the Philippines[J].Margin:the journal of applied economic research,2012,6(2):211-234.
[13]DAO M Q. Distribution and development in developing countries:an empirical assessment[J]. European research studies journal,2010,XIII(1):25-32.
[14]ZHONG Hai. The impact of population aging on income inequality in developing countries:evidence from rural China[J]. China economic review,2011,22(1):98-107.
[15]CHEN Binkai,YAO Yang. The cursed virtue:government infrastructural investment and household consumption in Chinese provinces[J]. Oxford bulletin of economics and statistics,2011,73(6):856-877.
[16]BANERJEE A V,NEWMAN A F. Occupational choice and the process of development[J]. Journal of political economy,1993,101(2):274-298.
[17]AGHION P,BOLTON P. A theory of trickle-down growth and development[J]. Review of economic studies,1997,64(2):151-172.
[18]BORGE L E,RATTSJ. Income distribution and tax structure:empirical test of the Meltzer-Richard hypothesis[J]. European economic review,2004,48(4):805-826.
[19]TEREK M. Regional incomes structure analysis in Slovak republic on the basis of EU-SILC data[J]. Scientific annals of economics and business,2017,64(2):171-185.
[20]KASY M,RAMOS-CHAVES A. The impact of changing family structures on the income distribution among Costa Rican women 1993-2009[J]. Feminist economics,2014,20(2):122-144.
[21]BAER W,GALVO JR A F. Tax burden,government expenditures and income distribution in Brazil[J]. The quarterly review of economics and finance,2006,48(2):345-358.
[22]胡秋阳.产业分工与劳动报酬份额[J].经济研究,2016,51(2):82-96.HU Qiuyang. Division of labor among different industries and the aggregate share of labor reward[J]. Economic research journal,2016,51(2):82-96.
[23]许明.提高劳动报酬有利于企业出口产品质量提升吗?[J].经济评论,2016(5):96-109.XU Ming. Will higher labor income improve the quality of products exported?[J]. Economic review,2016(5):96-109.
[24]吕光明,李莹.中国劳动报酬占比变动的统计测算与结构解析[J].统计研究,2015,32(8):46-53.LV Guangming,LI Ying. The measurement and structural analysis on the change of labor income share in China[J].Statistical research,2015,32(8):46-53.
[25]陈晓飞,赵昊东.农村居民收入来源结构与边际消费倾向——基于整体性与区域差异的比较研究[J].商业经济研究,2016(13):177-179.
[26]原鹏飞,冯蕾.经济增长、收入分配与贫富分化——基于DCGE模型的房地产价格上涨效应研究[J].经济研究,2014,49(9):77-90.YUAN Pengfei,FENG Lei. Research of housing price rising effects based on DCGE:economic growth,income distribution and wealth gap widening[J]. Economic research journal,2014,49(9):77-90.
[27]陈素梅,何凌云.环境、健康与经济增长:最优能源税收入分配研究[J].经济研究,2017,52(4):120-134.CHEN Sumei,HE Lingyun. Environment,health,and economic growth:the optimal allocation of energy tax revenue[J]. Economic research journal,2017,52(4):120-134.
[28]程大中.中国参与全球价值链分工的程度及演变趋势——基于跨国投入—产出分析[J].经济研究,2015,50(9):4-16,99.CHENG Dazhong. China's integration into the global value chains:a transnational input-output analysis[J]. Economic research journal,2015,50(9):4-16,99.
[29]刘刊,范德成.投资倾向变动对初次收入分配结构的调整机制研究[J].商业经济与管理,2014(5):78-84.LIU Kan,FAN Decheng. The effect of propensity to investment on primary income distribution structure[J].Journal of business economics,2014(5):78-84.
[30]刘佳,朱桂龙.基于投入产出表的我国产业关联与产业结构演化分析[J].统计与决策,2012(2):136-139.
[31]陈建东,夏柱兵.二次分配对城镇居民收入差距的调节效果分析——基于2007—2010年安徽省城镇住户调查数据[J].经济理论与经济管理,2011(9):87-93.CHEN Jiandong,XIA Zhubing. Studies of redistribution effects on urban income disparity-based on the urban household survey of Anhui province from 2007 to 2010[J]. Economic theory and business management,2011(9):87-93.
[32]厉以宁.收入分配制度改革应以初次分配改革为重点[J].经济研究,2013,48(3):4-6.
[33]臧旭恒,贺洋.初次分配格局调整与消费潜力释放[J].经济学动态,2015(1):19-28.
[34]姬旭辉,邱海平.中国经济剩余价值率的估算:1995~2009——兼论国民收入的初次分配[J].当代经济研究,2015(6):13-20.
[35]BASU S,WEIL D N. Appropriate technology and growth[J]. Quarterly journal of economics,1998,113(4):1025-1054.
[36]ACEMOGLU D,ZILIBOTTI F. Productivity differences[J]. Quarterly journal of economics,2001,116(2):563-606.
[37]刘慧,王海南.居民消费结构升级对产业发展的影响研究[J].经济问题探索,2015(2):35-39.
[38]LIN J Y,CHEN Binkai. Urbanization and urban-rural inequality in china:a new perspective from the government's development strategy[J]. Frontiers of economics in China,2011,6(1):1-21.
[2]王小华,温涛,朱炯.习惯形成、收入结构失衡与农村居民消费行为演化研究[J].经济学动态,2016(10):39-49.
[3]张车伟,赵文.中国劳动报酬份额问题——基于雇员经济与自雇经济的测算与分析[J].中国社会科学,2015(12):90-112,206-207.ZHANG Juwei,ZHAO Wen. The question of labor share in china:an estimate and analysis based on the employee economy and the self-employment economy[J]. Social sciences in China,2015(12):90-112,206-207.
[4]乔榛.收入分配的逆向转移:中国收入差距扩大的特殊机理[J].学习与探索,2013(6):86-91.
[5]白重恩,唐燕华,张琼.中国隐性收入规模估计——基于扩展消费支出模型及数据的解读[J].经济研究,2015,50(6):4-18.BAI Chongen,TANG Yanhua,ZHANG Qiong. An extended expenditure-based estimation of income underreporting and size of black economy in China[J]. Economic research journal,2015,50(6):4-18.
[6]张车伟,蔡翼飞.中国“十三五”时期劳动供给和需求预测及缺口分析[J].人口研究,2016,40(1):38-56.ZHANG Juwei,CAI Yifei. Forecasting China's labor supply and demand and the unemployment structure in the 13th five-year-plan period[J]. Population research, 2016,40(1):38-56.
[7]杨巨.关于提高劳动收入比重的思考[J].宏观经济管理,2013(5):73-74.
[8]陈宗胜,高玉伟.论我国居民收入分配格局变动及橄榄形格局的实现条件[J].经济学家,2015(1):30-41.
[9]许宪春.准确理解中国的收入、消费和投资[J].中国社会科学,2013(2):4-24,204.XU Xianchun. Accurately understanding the income,consumption and investment in China[J]. Social sciences in China,2013(2):4-24,204.
[10]DEBOWICZ D. Poverty,income distribution and cge micro-simulation modelling:does individual behaviour matter?[R]. Washington DC:International Food Policy Research Institute(IFPRI),2012.
[11]CAI Fang,WANG Meiyan. Growth and structural changes in employment in transition China[J]. Journal of comparative economics,2010,38(1):71-81.
[12]BOCCANFUSO D,SAVARD L. A segmented labour supply model estimation for the construction of a CGE microsimulation model:an application to the Philippines[J].Margin:the journal of applied economic research,2012,6(2):211-234.
[13]DAO M Q. Distribution and development in developing countries:an empirical assessment[J]. European research studies journal,2010,XIII(1):25-32.
[14]ZHONG Hai. The impact of population aging on income inequality in developing countries:evidence from rural China[J]. China economic review,2011,22(1):98-107.
[15]CHEN Binkai,YAO Yang. The cursed virtue:government infrastructural investment and household consumption in Chinese provinces[J]. Oxford bulletin of economics and statistics,2011,73(6):856-877.
[16]BANERJEE A V,NEWMAN A F. Occupational choice and the process of development[J]. Journal of political economy,1993,101(2):274-298.
[17]AGHION P,BOLTON P. A theory of trickle-down growth and development[J]. Review of economic studies,1997,64(2):151-172.
[18]BORGE L E,RATTSJ. Income distribution and tax structure:empirical test of the Meltzer-Richard hypothesis[J]. European economic review,2004,48(4):805-826.
[19]TEREK M. Regional incomes structure analysis in Slovak republic on the basis of EU-SILC data[J]. Scientific annals of economics and business,2017,64(2):171-185.
[20]KASY M,RAMOS-CHAVES A. The impact of changing family structures on the income distribution among Costa Rican women 1993-2009[J]. Feminist economics,2014,20(2):122-144.
[21]BAER W,GALVO JR A F. Tax burden,government expenditures and income distribution in Brazil[J]. The quarterly review of economics and finance,2006,48(2):345-358.
[22]胡秋阳.产业分工与劳动报酬份额[J].经济研究,2016,51(2):82-96.HU Qiuyang. Division of labor among different industries and the aggregate share of labor reward[J]. Economic research journal,2016,51(2):82-96.
[23]许明.提高劳动报酬有利于企业出口产品质量提升吗?[J].经济评论,2016(5):96-109.XU Ming. Will higher labor income improve the quality of products exported?[J]. Economic review,2016(5):96-109.
[24]吕光明,李莹.中国劳动报酬占比变动的统计测算与结构解析[J].统计研究,2015,32(8):46-53.LV Guangming,LI Ying. The measurement and structural analysis on the change of labor income share in China[J].Statistical research,2015,32(8):46-53.
[25]陈晓飞,赵昊东.农村居民收入来源结构与边际消费倾向——基于整体性与区域差异的比较研究[J].商业经济研究,2016(13):177-179.
[26]原鹏飞,冯蕾.经济增长、收入分配与贫富分化——基于DCGE模型的房地产价格上涨效应研究[J].经济研究,2014,49(9):77-90.YUAN Pengfei,FENG Lei. Research of housing price rising effects based on DCGE:economic growth,income distribution and wealth gap widening[J]. Economic research journal,2014,49(9):77-90.
[27]陈素梅,何凌云.环境、健康与经济增长:最优能源税收入分配研究[J].经济研究,2017,52(4):120-134.CHEN Sumei,HE Lingyun. Environment,health,and economic growth:the optimal allocation of energy tax revenue[J]. Economic research journal,2017,52(4):120-134.
[28]程大中.中国参与全球价值链分工的程度及演变趋势——基于跨国投入—产出分析[J].经济研究,2015,50(9):4-16,99.CHENG Dazhong. China's integration into the global value chains:a transnational input-output analysis[J]. Economic research journal,2015,50(9):4-16,99.
[29]刘刊,范德成.投资倾向变动对初次收入分配结构的调整机制研究[J].商业经济与管理,2014(5):78-84.LIU Kan,FAN Decheng. The effect of propensity to investment on primary income distribution structure[J].Journal of business economics,2014(5):78-84.
[30]刘佳,朱桂龙.基于投入产出表的我国产业关联与产业结构演化分析[J].统计与决策,2012(2):136-139.
[31]陈建东,夏柱兵.二次分配对城镇居民收入差距的调节效果分析——基于2007—2010年安徽省城镇住户调查数据[J].经济理论与经济管理,2011(9):87-93.CHEN Jiandong,XIA Zhubing. Studies of redistribution effects on urban income disparity-based on the urban household survey of Anhui province from 2007 to 2010[J]. Economic theory and business management,2011(9):87-93.
[32]厉以宁.收入分配制度改革应以初次分配改革为重点[J].经济研究,2013,48(3):4-6.
[33]臧旭恒,贺洋.初次分配格局调整与消费潜力释放[J].经济学动态,2015(1):19-28.
[34]姬旭辉,邱海平.中国经济剩余价值率的估算:1995~2009——兼论国民收入的初次分配[J].当代经济研究,2015(6):13-20.
[35]BASU S,WEIL D N. Appropriate technology and growth[J]. Quarterly journal of economics,1998,113(4):1025-1054.
[36]ACEMOGLU D,ZILIBOTTI F. Productivity differences[J]. Quarterly journal of economics,2001,116(2):563-606.
[37]刘慧,王海南.居民消费结构升级对产业发展的影响研究[J].经济问题探索,2015(2):35-39.
[38]LIN J Y,CHEN Binkai. Urbanization and urban-rural inequality in china:a new perspective from the government's development strategy[J]. Frontiers of economics in China,2011,6(1):1-21.