区域气候动力降尺度方法研究综述
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摘要
传统意义上的动力降尺度是指利用全球模式的模拟结果直接驱动区域模式,从而获得高分辨率气候信息的方法.由于该方法具有坚实的物理基础并可以获得全套气候变化信息,已经成为获取未来区域高分辨率气候信息的重要手段之一.然而,由于受模式系统误差的影响,传统动力降尺度的模拟结果往往会出现较大的偏差,这又在一定程度上限制了该方法在气候变化影响评估中的应用.为了提高动力降尺度的效果,近年来国内外发展了一系列改进的动力降尺度方法.目前的动力降尺度方法大体可分为四类:传统的动力降尺度方法、伪全球增暖方法、考虑全球模式误差订正的动力降尺度方法以及同时考虑全球模式和区域模式误差订正的动力降尺度方法.文章归纳总结了近年来动力降尺度方法的主要研究进展,分析了不同方法的优点和不足,阐述了动力降尺度研究面临的问题与挑战,最后提出了未来动力降尺度方法研究的潜在发展方向.
引文
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刘昌明,刘文彬,傅国斌,欧阳如琳.2012.气候影响评价中统计降尺度若干问题的探讨.水科学进展,23:427-437
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许吟隆,张勇,林一骅,林而达,林万涛,董文杰,Jones R,Hassell D,Wilson S.2006.利用PRECIS分析SRES B2情景下中国区域的气候变化响应.科学通报,51:2068-2074
杨浩,江志红,李肇新,王晓芳,崔春光.2017.分位数订正法在北京动力降尺度模拟订正中的适用性评估.气象学报.75:460-470
姚素香,张耀存.2008.区域海气耦合模式对中国夏季降水的模拟.气象学报,66:131-142
姚隽琛,周天军,邹立维.2018.基于气候系统模式FGOALS-g2的热带气旋活动及其影响的动力降尺度模拟.大气科学,42:150-163
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曾庆存,周广庆,蒲一芬,陈文,李荣凤,廖宏,林朝辉,刘辉志,王必正,谢正辉,徐永福,薛峰,曾晓东,张凤.2008.地球系统动力学模式及模拟研究.大气科学,32:653-690
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