基于分位数回归分析方法的农村金融对农业产业化的影响研究
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摘要
为了探讨农村金融与农业产业化之间存在的内在规律,使用中国2000—2016年的数据对两者进行了定量分析和实证分析,并对两者良性互动给出了数理模型推导。结果显示:农村金融与农业产业化通过技术进步和资本积累途径相互促进;中国农业产业化水平得到提高,但发展速度缓慢,农村金融逐渐发展,但并不平稳;农村金融变量对农业产业化的分位数回归系数呈波动状态,其中,农业贷款和农业保费赔付对农业产业化具有明显的促进作用,由此得出金融支农的重要意义。
In order to explore the inherent laws existing between rural finance and agriculture industrialization, this paper uses the data of China in 2000-2016 to conduct quantitative analysis and empirical analysis, and deduces the mathematical model derived from the positive interaction between the two. The results show: Rural finance and agricultural industrialization promote each other through technological progress and ways of capital accumulation;the level of China's agricultural industrialization has been improved, but the pace of development has been slow. Rural finance has gradually developed but not stabilized;the quantile regression coefficient of rural financial variables on agricultural industrialization fluctuated, among them, agricultural loans and agricultural insurance premiums played a significant role in promoting agriculture industrialization, and the important meaning of financial support for agriculture was drawn.
In order to explore the inherent laws existing between rural finance and agriculture industrialization, this paper uses the data of China in 2000-2016 to conduct quantitative analysis and empirical analysis, and deduces the mathematical model derived from the positive interaction between the two. The results show: Rural finance and agricultural industrialization promote each other through technological progress and ways of capital accumulation;the level of China's agricultural industrialization has been improved, but the pace of development has been slow. Rural finance has gradually developed but not stabilized;the quantile regression coefficient of rural financial variables on agricultural industrialization fluctuated, among them, agricultural loans and agricultural insurance premiums played a significant role in promoting agriculture industrialization, and the important meaning of financial support for agriculture was drawn.
引文
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[2] 王颖.我国农业产业化发展存在的问题及对策[J].现代农业科技,2011(1):351-353.
[3] 聂辉华.最优农业契约与中国农业产业化模式[J].经济学,2012,12(1):313-330.
[4] 阳立高,廖进中.城镇化、工业化与农业产业化经济拉动作用分析[J].经济问题探索,2009(3):163-168.
[5] 赵洪丹,朱显平.农村金融、财政支农与农村经济发展[J].当代经济科学,2015,37(5):96-108.
[6] 孙玉奎,周诺亚,李丕东.农村金融发展对农村居民收入的影响研究[J].统计研究,2014,31(11):90-95.
[7] 朱建华,洪必纲.试论农业产业化与农村金融改革的良性互动[J].财经问题研究,2010(7):122-125.
[8] 张峰.中国农业产业化融资体系研究[D].太原:山西财经大学,2015.
[9] 张玉利.农村金融对农业产业化发展的支持研究:以上海为例[D].上海:上海海洋大学,2016.
[10] 台德进,朱晓俊.江淮分水岭区域农业产业化影响机制研究[J].安庆师范大学学报(社会科学版),2017,36(3):84-88,115.
[11] DAVIS J H,GOLDBERG R A.Concept of agribusiness[M].Boston:Harvard University,1957:58-109.
[12] CHEN K Z.The changing pattern of China’s agricultural trade[J].Canadian agricultural economics society,2000,1:1-10.