中国东部夏季暴雨事件空间形态变化规律初步分析
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摘要
基于1961~2010年逐日0.25°经纬度网格分辨率的降水再分析资料,将中国东部分为南部、中部和北部3个区域,以暴雨斑块表征空间上相对独立的暴雨事件,利用景观格局分析方法研究了各区域夏季暴雨事件空间形态变化规律。主要结论如下:(1)各区域空间上相对独立的暴雨事件出现频率与其个数呈反向变化,随日暴雨事件面积指数平均值和合计值增加,其出现频率呈幂指数形态下降;(2)中部区域(北部区域)在6月下旬至7月上旬(7月下旬)暴雨事件最多,在夏季前期(夏季后期)中部区域(北部区域)暴雨事件面积指数最大;(3)南部和中部区域从1990s开始进入暴雨覆盖面积偏大时期,其主导因素是暴雨事件频数增多,北部区域在2000s进入暴雨覆盖范围偏小期的主要影响因素是相对独立的暴雨事件覆盖面积变小。所得结论进一步深化了对我国东部暴雨事件演变规律的认识,在洪涝灾害防御和水资源管理工作中具有较好的应用前景,分析方法可供类似研究工作借鉴。
The paper aims to study on the spatial pattern characteristics of east china summer rainstorm events. The daily precipitation reanalysis data at 0. 25×0. 25 latitude-longitude grid in 1961-2010 was used,which is based on more than 2 400 weather observation stations in China. The landscape pattern analysis tool( fragstat4. 2) was utilized to obtain the rainstorm patches parameters. In the study east China was divided into 3 areas named Southern Area( SA),Central Area( CA) and Northern Area( NA) considering climatic division research results,and the spatial independent rainstorm events characteristics are represented by the rainstorm patch pattern parameter such as patches count,average patches area index,etc.,the main conclusions are as follows: 1) there is reverse variation trend between the count of independent rainstorm events and its frequency. With the increase of daily mean and daily sum of rainstorm patch area index,their frequency decrease in exponential form. 2) There are more rainstorm events in the CA( NA) during late June to early July( late July). In the early summer( late summer) average rainstorm area index in CA( NA) is largest among 3 areas. 3) Since 1990 s,SA and CA were more likely affected by rainstorm,which was mainly caused by the frequency increasing of individual rainstorm events. Resulting from the smaller coverage of individual rainstorm events,NA experienced fewer rainstorms in 2000 s. The conclusion of this paper deepens the understanding on the rainstorm events variation in eastern China and has a good application prospect in the flood disaster prevention and water resources management. The analysis method also is reference for similar research.
The paper aims to study on the spatial pattern characteristics of east china summer rainstorm events. The daily precipitation reanalysis data at 0. 25×0. 25 latitude-longitude grid in 1961-2010 was used,which is based on more than 2 400 weather observation stations in China. The landscape pattern analysis tool( fragstat4. 2) was utilized to obtain the rainstorm patches parameters. In the study east China was divided into 3 areas named Southern Area( SA),Central Area( CA) and Northern Area( NA) considering climatic division research results,and the spatial independent rainstorm events characteristics are represented by the rainstorm patch pattern parameter such as patches count,average patches area index,etc.,the main conclusions are as follows: 1) there is reverse variation trend between the count of independent rainstorm events and its frequency. With the increase of daily mean and daily sum of rainstorm patch area index,their frequency decrease in exponential form. 2) There are more rainstorm events in the CA( NA) during late June to early July( late July). In the early summer( late summer) average rainstorm area index in CA( NA) is largest among 3 areas. 3) Since 1990 s,SA and CA were more likely affected by rainstorm,which was mainly caused by the frequency increasing of individual rainstorm events. Resulting from the smaller coverage of individual rainstorm events,NA experienced fewer rainstorms in 2000 s. The conclusion of this paper deepens the understanding on the rainstorm events variation in eastern China and has a good application prospect in the flood disaster prevention and water resources management. The analysis method also is reference for similar research.
引文
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[9]ZHAI P M,ZHANG X B,WAN H,et al.Trends in total precipitation and frequency of daily precipitation extremes over China[J].Journal of Climate,2005,18(18):1096-1108.
[10]SHEN Y,XIONG A Y.Validation and comparison of a new gauge-based precipitation analysis over mainland China[J].International Journal of Climatology,2016,36(1):252-265.
[11]XIE P,CHEN M,A.YATAGAI,et al.A gauge-based analysis of daily precipitation over east asia[J].Journal of Hydrometeorology,2007,8(3):607-626.
[12]沈艳,冯明农,张洪政,等.我国逐日降水量格点化方法[J].应用气象学报,2010,21:279-286.SHEN Y,FENG M N,ZHANG H Z,et al.Interpolation methods of China daily precipitation data[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science[J],2010,21(3):279-286.
[13]郑景云,卞娟娟,葛全胜,等.1981~2010年中国气候区划[J].科学通报,2013,30:3088-3099.ZHENG J Y,BIAN J J,GE Q S,et al.The climate regionalization in China for 1981-2010[J].Chinese Science Bulletin[J],2013,58(30):3088-3099.
[14]邬建国,景观生态学——局、过程、尺度与等级[M],北京:高等教育出版社,2007:106.
[15]MCGARIGAL K,SA CUSHMAN,E Ene.FRAGSTATS v4.2012.http://www.umass.edu/landeco/research/fragstats/fragstats.html.
[16]施能,陈家其,屠其璞.中国近100年来4个年代际的气候变化特征[J].气象学报,1995,53:431-439.SHI N,CHEN J Q,TU Q P.4-Phase climate change features in the last 100 years over China[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,1995,53(4):431-439.
[17]鲍名,黄荣辉.近40年我国暴雨的年代际变化特征[J].大气科学,2006,30:1057-1067.BAO M,HUANG R H.Characteristics of the interdecadal variations of heavy rain over China in last 40 years[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2006,30(6):1057-1067.
[18]卞洁,何金海,李双林.近50年来长江中下游汛期暴雨变化特征[J].气候与环境研究,2012,17:68-80.BIAN J,HE J H,LI S L.Heavy rain variation characteristics in flood seasons in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River in the last 50years[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2012,17(1):68-80.
[19]郝立生,闵锦忠,丁一汇.华北地区降水事件变化和暴雨事件减少原因分析[J].地球物理学报,2011,54:1160-1167.HAO L S,MIN J Z,DING Y H.Analysis of precipitation events changes and causes for rainstorm events reduction in North China[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2011,54(5):1160-1167.
[20]施小英,施晓晖,毛嘉富.夏季东亚地区水汽输送年代际变化特征及其对中国东部降水的影响[J].地理学报,2009,64:861-870.SHI X Y,SHI X H,MAO J F.Interdecadal variation of water vapor transport over east Asia and its impacts on rainfall over eastern china in summer[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2009,64(7):861-870.
[21]马京津,于波,高晓清,等.大尺度环流变化对华北地区夏季水汽输送的影响[J].高原气象,2008,27:517-523.MA J J,YU B,GAO X Q,et al.Change of large scale circulation and its impact on the water vapor over north China[J].Plateau Meteorology,2008,27(3):517-523.
[22]郭志荣,陈旭红,江燕如,等.中国东部夏季水汽输送的年代际变化特征[J].大气科学学报,2014,37(5):568-574.GUO Z R,CHEN X H,JIANG Y R,et al.Interdecadal variation characteristics of water vapor transfer over eastern China in Summer[J].Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences,2014,37(5):568-574.
[2]王艳姣,闫峰.1960~2010年中国降水区域分异及年代际变化特征[J].地理科学进展,2014,33:1354-1363.WANG Y J,YAN F.Regional differentiation and decadal change of precipitation in China in 1960-2010[J].Progress in Geography,2014,33(10):1354-1363.
[3]吕俊梅,祝从文,琚建华,等.近百年中国东部夏季降水年代际变化特征及其原因[J].大气科学,2014,38:782-794.LV J M,ZHU C W,JU J H,et al.Interdecadal variability in summer precipitation over east China during the past 100 years and its possible causes[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2014,38(4):782-794.
[4]徐新创,张学珍,戴尔阜,等.1961~2010年中国降水强度变化趋势及其对降水量影响分析[J].地理研究,2014,33:1335-1347.XU X C,ZHANG X Z,DAI E F,et al.Research of trend variability of precipitation intensity and their contribution to precipitation in China from 1961 to 2010[J].Geographical Research,2014,33(7):1335-1347.
[5]任正果,张明军,王圣杰,等.1961~2011年中国南方地区极端降水事件变化[J].地理学报,2014,69:640-649.RRN Z G,ZHANG M J,WANG S J,et al.Changes in precipitation extremes in South China during 1961-2011[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2014,69(5):640-649.
[6]高涛,谢立安.近50年来中国极端降水趋势与物理成因研究综述[J].地球科学进展,2014,29:577-589.GAO T,XIE L A.Study on progress of the trends and physical causes of extreme precipitation in China during the last 50 years[J].Advances in Earth Science,2014,29(5):577-589.
[7]申乐琳,何金海,周秀骥,等.近50年来中国夏季降水及水汽输送特征研究[J].气象学报,2010,68:918-931.SHEN L L,HE J H,ZHOU X J,et al.The regional variabilities of the summer rainfall in China and its relation with anomalous moisture transport during the recent 50 years[J].Acta Meteorol Sinica,2010,68(6):918-931.
[8]翟盘茂,潘晓华.中国北方近50年温度和降水极端事件变化[J].地理学报,2003,(S1):1-10.ZHAI P M,PAN X H.Change in extreme temperature and precipitation over northern China during the second half of the20th century[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2003,58(Suppl.):1-10.
[9]ZHAI P M,ZHANG X B,WAN H,et al.Trends in total precipitation and frequency of daily precipitation extremes over China[J].Journal of Climate,2005,18(18):1096-1108.
[10]SHEN Y,XIONG A Y.Validation and comparison of a new gauge-based precipitation analysis over mainland China[J].International Journal of Climatology,2016,36(1):252-265.
[11]XIE P,CHEN M,A.YATAGAI,et al.A gauge-based analysis of daily precipitation over east asia[J].Journal of Hydrometeorology,2007,8(3):607-626.
[12]沈艳,冯明农,张洪政,等.我国逐日降水量格点化方法[J].应用气象学报,2010,21:279-286.SHEN Y,FENG M N,ZHANG H Z,et al.Interpolation methods of China daily precipitation data[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science[J],2010,21(3):279-286.
[13]郑景云,卞娟娟,葛全胜,等.1981~2010年中国气候区划[J].科学通报,2013,30:3088-3099.ZHENG J Y,BIAN J J,GE Q S,et al.The climate regionalization in China for 1981-2010[J].Chinese Science Bulletin[J],2013,58(30):3088-3099.
[14]邬建国,景观生态学——局、过程、尺度与等级[M],北京:高等教育出版社,2007:106.
[15]MCGARIGAL K,SA CUSHMAN,E Ene.FRAGSTATS v4.2012.http://www.umass.edu/landeco/research/fragstats/fragstats.html.
[16]施能,陈家其,屠其璞.中国近100年来4个年代际的气候变化特征[J].气象学报,1995,53:431-439.SHI N,CHEN J Q,TU Q P.4-Phase climate change features in the last 100 years over China[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,1995,53(4):431-439.
[17]鲍名,黄荣辉.近40年我国暴雨的年代际变化特征[J].大气科学,2006,30:1057-1067.BAO M,HUANG R H.Characteristics of the interdecadal variations of heavy rain over China in last 40 years[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2006,30(6):1057-1067.
[18]卞洁,何金海,李双林.近50年来长江中下游汛期暴雨变化特征[J].气候与环境研究,2012,17:68-80.BIAN J,HE J H,LI S L.Heavy rain variation characteristics in flood seasons in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River in the last 50years[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2012,17(1):68-80.
[19]郝立生,闵锦忠,丁一汇.华北地区降水事件变化和暴雨事件减少原因分析[J].地球物理学报,2011,54:1160-1167.HAO L S,MIN J Z,DING Y H.Analysis of precipitation events changes and causes for rainstorm events reduction in North China[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2011,54(5):1160-1167.
[20]施小英,施晓晖,毛嘉富.夏季东亚地区水汽输送年代际变化特征及其对中国东部降水的影响[J].地理学报,2009,64:861-870.SHI X Y,SHI X H,MAO J F.Interdecadal variation of water vapor transport over east Asia and its impacts on rainfall over eastern china in summer[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2009,64(7):861-870.
[21]马京津,于波,高晓清,等.大尺度环流变化对华北地区夏季水汽输送的影响[J].高原气象,2008,27:517-523.MA J J,YU B,GAO X Q,et al.Change of large scale circulation and its impact on the water vapor over north China[J].Plateau Meteorology,2008,27(3):517-523.
[22]郭志荣,陈旭红,江燕如,等.中国东部夏季水汽输送的年代际变化特征[J].大气科学学报,2014,37(5):568-574.GUO Z R,CHEN X H,JIANG Y R,et al.Interdecadal variation characteristics of water vapor transfer over eastern China in Summer[J].Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences,2014,37(5):568-574.