河北地区中强震前异常演化特征分析
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摘要
通过地震活动特征分析、研究地震活动基本规律,对于了解大地震的孕育过程及地震前兆有重要意义。采用"RTL(Region-Time-Length)"算法和"区域网格点密集值"算法对河北地区中强震前的地震活动特征进行分析研究。利用RTL算法对河北地区1970年以来的M_S5.0以上地震在时间和空间上进行回顾性检验,以震例6年前地震目录为计算数据。时间扫描结果显示, 4次地震震前地震活动平静, 1次地震震前地震活动增强。空间扫描结果给出了震例震前三年以1年尺度滑动的扫描图像,与时间结果对应相吻合。区域网格点密集值算法所选资料与RTL算法相同,对研究震例中的三次较大地震(M_L≥6.0)进行震前三年尺度滑动的空间扫描。结果显示,随着时间滑动,截至发震前,震中附近区域网格密集值逐渐减小,趋于平静。通过综合应用两种方法,发现地震活动平静的低值点和地震活动增强的高值点对地震的发生有一定的指示意义。
It is of great significance to understand the preparation process and precursor of large earthquake based on analyzing the characteristics of seismic activity and studying on the basic laws of seismic activity. In this paper, RTL(Region-Time-Length) algorithm and seismic density calculation algorithm are used to analyze the seismic activity characteristics of the medium and strong earthquake in Hebei. The RTL algorithm is used to temporally and spatially retrospectively examine the earthquakes above M_W5.0 in the study area since 1970, and the seismic catalogues of 6 years ago are used. Time scanning result shows that the seismic activity is calm before the four earthquakes and the seismic activity is stronger before one earthquake. The spatial scanning results show the scanning image in one-year-scale for three years before the earthquake, and the result is consistent with temporal result. The selected data of seismic density algorithm is same as the RTL algorithm, the spatial scanning of three years scale slip before the earthquake is carried out for the three major earthquakes(M_L≥6.0) in the earthquake cases. The results show that, with time sliding, the seismic density of the area near the epicenter gradually decreases and tends towards calm before the earthquake. The results of the two methods show that the low point of seismic activity and the high value point of seismic activity may have some reference value for the prediction of earthquake in this region.
It is of great significance to understand the preparation process and precursor of large earthquake based on analyzing the characteristics of seismic activity and studying on the basic laws of seismic activity. In this paper, RTL(Region-Time-Length) algorithm and seismic density calculation algorithm are used to analyze the seismic activity characteristics of the medium and strong earthquake in Hebei. The RTL algorithm is used to temporally and spatially retrospectively examine the earthquakes above M_W5.0 in the study area since 1970, and the seismic catalogues of 6 years ago are used. Time scanning result shows that the seismic activity is calm before the four earthquakes and the seismic activity is stronger before one earthquake. The spatial scanning results show the scanning image in one-year-scale for three years before the earthquake, and the result is consistent with temporal result. The selected data of seismic density algorithm is same as the RTL algorithm, the spatial scanning of three years scale slip before the earthquake is carried out for the three major earthquakes(M_L≥6.0) in the earthquake cases. The results show that, with time sliding, the seismic density of the area near the epicenter gradually decreases and tends towards calm before the earthquake. The results of the two methods show that the low point of seismic activity and the high value point of seismic activity may have some reference value for the prediction of earthquake in this region.
引文
[1]王健.地震活动性图像处理的网格点密集值计算方法[J].地震学报,2001,23(3):262-267.
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[5]刘月,吕晓健.基于区域-时间-长度算法的区域地震活动与强震关系研究[J].地震学报,2016,38(2):208-219.
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[10]蒋海昆,侯海峰,周焕鹏,等.“区域-时间-长度算法”在华北地区中强地震地点判定中的应用研究[J].地震,2004,24(4):17-26.
[11]刘月,吕晓健,田勤俭.基于“区域-时间-长度算法”分析川滇地区强震前地震活动性变化[J].地震,2016,36(2):94-104.
[12]梅秀苹,刘小凤.“区域-时间-长度算法”用于甘肃及邻近地区中强地震预测的回溯性检验[J].西北地震学报,2013,35(增刊):61-66.
[13]王健.1976年唐山地震成因解释的一个新模式[J].地震学报,2001,23(5):552-557.
[14]王健,吴宣,张晓东,等.1303年山西洪洞8级地震高烈度区内地震活动特征及其物理意义[J].地震学报,2004,26(4):347-354.
[15]王健.渤海海域历史地震和海啸[J].地震学报,2007,29(5):549-557.
[16]王健.京津唐地区地震密集与历史强震[M].北京:地震出版社,2011,19-22.
[17]郭增建,秦保燕.地震成因和地震预报[M].北京:地震出版社,1991,177-178.
[18]张哲.云南省昆明地区地震密集特征分析[D].北京:中国地震局地球物理研究所,2017,1-19.
[19]Wiemer S,Wyss M.Minimum magnitude of completeness in earthquake catalogs:examples from Alaska,the Western United States,and Japan[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,2000,90(4):859-869.
[2]张国民,马宏生,王辉,等.中国大陆活动地块边界带与强震活动[J].地球物理学报,2005,48(3):141-149.
[3]罗灼礼,李志雄,王伟君.地震活动“密集-平静”现象的混沌特性探讨[J].地震,2007,27(4):1-17.
[4]Sobolev G A,Tyupkin Y S.Low-seismicity precursors of large earthquakes in Kamchatka[J].JVolcanol Seismol,1997,18(4):433-446.
[5]刘月,吕晓健.基于区域-时间-长度算法的区域地震活动与强震关系研究[J].地震学报,2016,38(2):208-219.
[6]Huang Q H,Sobolev G A.Characteristics of the seismic quiescence and activation patterns before the M=7.2Kobe earthquake,January 17,1995[J].Tectonophysics,2001,337:99-116.
[7]Huang Q H,Sobolev G A.Seismic quiescence prior to the 2000 M=6.8Nemuro Peninsula earthquake[J].Proc J Acad,2001,77:1-6.
[8]Huang Q H.Seismicity changes prior to the MS8.0 Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan,China[J].Geophys Res Lett,2008,35(23).
[9]蒋海昆,侯海峰,周焕鹏,等.“区域-时间-长度算法”及其在华北中强地震中短期前兆特征研究中的应用[J].地震学报,2004,26(2):151-161.
[10]蒋海昆,侯海峰,周焕鹏,等.“区域-时间-长度算法”在华北地区中强地震地点判定中的应用研究[J].地震,2004,24(4):17-26.
[11]刘月,吕晓健,田勤俭.基于“区域-时间-长度算法”分析川滇地区强震前地震活动性变化[J].地震,2016,36(2):94-104.
[12]梅秀苹,刘小凤.“区域-时间-长度算法”用于甘肃及邻近地区中强地震预测的回溯性检验[J].西北地震学报,2013,35(增刊):61-66.
[13]王健.1976年唐山地震成因解释的一个新模式[J].地震学报,2001,23(5):552-557.
[14]王健,吴宣,张晓东,等.1303年山西洪洞8级地震高烈度区内地震活动特征及其物理意义[J].地震学报,2004,26(4):347-354.
[15]王健.渤海海域历史地震和海啸[J].地震学报,2007,29(5):549-557.
[16]王健.京津唐地区地震密集与历史强震[M].北京:地震出版社,2011,19-22.
[17]郭增建,秦保燕.地震成因和地震预报[M].北京:地震出版社,1991,177-178.
[18]张哲.云南省昆明地区地震密集特征分析[D].北京:中国地震局地球物理研究所,2017,1-19.
[19]Wiemer S,Wyss M.Minimum magnitude of completeness in earthquake catalogs:examples from Alaska,the Western United States,and Japan[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,2000,90(4):859-869.