基于多源信息的综合干旱监测研究进展与展望
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摘要
当前干旱监测已由单一要素向多要素综合方向转变,为了更好地促进综合干旱监测理论和相关模型的发展,全面系统地分析了综合干旱监测的概念内涵,梳理了综合干旱监测模型的构建方法,将其划分为水平衡模型法、线性模型组合法、多变量联合分布函数法、主成分分析法和多源信息数据挖掘法5种。进一步针对当前综合干旱监测存在的挑战与不足,提出了综合干旱监测模型未来应努力发展的方向,即在理论层面上:一是研究干旱内在机理与发生发展过程,明晰干旱影响因素间的关联关系,构建集成多要素的定量干旱综合监测模型;二是增强干旱监测模型的针对性,依据地域、下垫面、生长季等的不同,发展适宜的干旱监测模型;三是针对模型验证难的问题,构建干旱综合监测模型精度验证指标体系。在技术层面上,研究与干旱相关多源信息的集成与融合,提高其综合利用水平,为干旱监测提供丰富的数据支撑和技术保障。
At present,drought monitoring has changed from single factor to multi-factor comprehensive direction.In order to better promote the development of comprehensive drought monitoring theory and related models,the conceptual connotation of comprehensive drought monitoring was comprehensively and systematically analyzed,and the construction methods of comprehensive drought monitoring model were sorted out,which were divided into five methods:Water balance model method,linear model combination method,multi-variable joint distribution function method,principal component analysis method and multi-source information data mining method.Furthermore,in view of the current challenges and shortcomings of integrated drought monitoring,the direction of future development of integrated drought monitoring model was put forward,that is,at the theoretical level:The first is to study the internal mechanism of drought and its occurrence and development process,clarify the relationship among the factors affecting drought,and construct a comprehensive quantitative drought monitoring model integrating multiple factors;The second is to enhance the pertinence of drought monitoring model,develop suitable drought monitoring model according to different regions,underlying surface,growing season,etc.;The third is to construct the precision verification index system of comprehensive monitoring model for drought in view of the difficulty of model validation.At the technical level,the integration and fusion of drought-related multi-source information is studied to improve its comprehensive utilization level and provide abundant data support and technical support for drought monitoring.
At present,drought monitoring has changed from single factor to multi-factor comprehensive direction.In order to better promote the development of comprehensive drought monitoring theory and related models,the conceptual connotation of comprehensive drought monitoring was comprehensively and systematically analyzed,and the construction methods of comprehensive drought monitoring model were sorted out,which were divided into five methods:Water balance model method,linear model combination method,multi-variable joint distribution function method,principal component analysis method and multi-source information data mining method.Furthermore,in view of the current challenges and shortcomings of integrated drought monitoring,the direction of future development of integrated drought monitoring model was put forward,that is,at the theoretical level:The first is to study the internal mechanism of drought and its occurrence and development process,clarify the relationship among the factors affecting drought,and construct a comprehensive quantitative drought monitoring model integrating multiple factors;The second is to enhance the pertinence of drought monitoring model,develop suitable drought monitoring model according to different regions,underlying surface,growing season,etc.;The third is to construct the precision verification index system of comprehensive monitoring model for drought in view of the difficulty of model validation.At the technical level,the integration and fusion of drought-related multi-source information is studied to improve its comprehensive utilization level and provide abundant data support and technical support for drought monitoring.
引文
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