基于德尔菲法的储罐泄漏扩散影响因素分析
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摘要
通过事故案例的分析和相关文献资料的查找,得出天然气储罐泄漏扩散的影响因素,利用德尔菲法通过选定专家,层次分析法确定专家权重,制定专家咨询表并进行两轮咨询打分,确定了天然气储罐泄漏扩散的主要影响因素依次为储罐压力、风速、泄漏量、泄漏速度、泄漏孔径、泄漏浓度和风向7种,最后根据这些因素提出预防天然气储罐泄漏造成事故的相关建议:(1)运用基于风险的检验(RBI)技术,优化检测、维修方案;(2)储罐应采用可靠性高的安全仪表系统;(3)储罐应设置在厂区全年最小频率风向的上风侧,具备良好的通风、驱散、稀释等设施条件。
Leakage diffusion very easily occur in gas storage tanks, bringing about not only environmental damage but also heavy casualties and property losses. It's important to find out its reasons and to take corresponding preventive actions. So, based on analysis on accidents and cases, the main factors influencing leakage diffusion were figured out. And then, expert weight was determined and advisory table was listed to implement a two-run marking via adopting Delphi-based analysis hierarchy process. It is found that the main factors contain tank pressure, wind speed, leakage rate, leakage speed, leakage radius, leakage concentration, and wind direction. In addition, preventive actions include,(1) to adopt RBI-based technology to optimize overhaul scheme,(2) to utilize safe instrument system with higher reliability for tanks, and (3) tanks being placed at the upper hand of the lowest wind direction, meanwhile equipped with those facilities with better ventilation, diffusion, and dilution conditions.
Leakage diffusion very easily occur in gas storage tanks, bringing about not only environmental damage but also heavy casualties and property losses. It's important to find out its reasons and to take corresponding preventive actions. So, based on analysis on accidents and cases, the main factors influencing leakage diffusion were figured out. And then, expert weight was determined and advisory table was listed to implement a two-run marking via adopting Delphi-based analysis hierarchy process. It is found that the main factors contain tank pressure, wind speed, leakage rate, leakage speed, leakage radius, leakage concentration, and wind direction. In addition, preventive actions include,(1) to adopt RBI-based technology to optimize overhaul scheme,(2) to utilize safe instrument system with higher reliability for tanks, and (3) tanks being placed at the upper hand of the lowest wind direction, meanwhile equipped with those facilities with better ventilation, diffusion, and dilution conditions.
引文
[1]潘旭海,蒋军成.化学危险性气体泄漏扩散模拟及其影响因素[J].南京化工大学学报,2001,23(1):19-22.
[2]侯庆民.天然气管道泄漏与天然气在大气中扩散的模拟研究[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学,2009.
[3]谢振华.安全系统工程[M].北京:冶金工业出版社,2010.
[4]张景林.安全系统工程(第二版)[M].北京:煤炭工业出版社,2014.
[2]侯庆民.天然气管道泄漏与天然气在大气中扩散的模拟研究[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学,2009.
[3]谢振华.安全系统工程[M].北京:冶金工业出版社,2010.
[4]张景林.安全系统工程(第二版)[M].北京:煤炭工业出版社,2014.