政治效能感、参与意愿对中国公民选举参与的影响机制——政治信任的调节作用
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摘要
尽管政治效能感对政治参与具有重要的影响作用,但针对二者关系的作用机制和作用条件的研究相对缺乏。本研究对政治效能感与政治参与影响关系中参与意愿的间接作用效应以及政治信任的调节作用效应进行探讨。在北京、天津、黑龙江、浙江、山东、湖北、安徽、陕西、甘肃和广西等10个省、直辖市、自治区展开的问卷调查,获得8635份中国公民的有效数据,分析结果显示:参与意愿在政治效能感与政治参与的关系中具有部分中介作用;政治效能感与政治参与的直接关系以及通过政治参与意愿的间接关系受到政治信任的调节作用,即在低政治信任条件下政治效能感对政治参与的直接和间接影响不显著。本研究结果有助于更好地把握和理解政治效能感如何以及在何种条件下促进公民个体的选举参与。
Although political efficacy has been shown to play an important role in political participation,little is known about mediating and moderating mechanisms underlying this relation among Chinese citizens.This study investigates the indirect effect of political efficacy on political participation via participation intention and the moderating role of political trust.Observing on 8635 Chinese participated adults,mediation analysis reveals that participation intention partially mediates the relation between political efficacy and political participation.Moderated mediation analysis further indicates that the direct and indirect relations between political efficacy and political participation are moderated by political trust.The direct and indirect effects of political efficacy on political participation become non-significant for low political trust citizens.This study contributes to a better understanding of how and when political efficacy promotes citizens'electoral participation.
Although political efficacy has been shown to play an important role in political participation,little is known about mediating and moderating mechanisms underlying this relation among Chinese citizens.This study investigates the indirect effect of political efficacy on political participation via participation intention and the moderating role of political trust.Observing on 8635 Chinese participated adults,mediation analysis reveals that participation intention partially mediates the relation between political efficacy and political participation.Moderated mediation analysis further indicates that the direct and indirect relations between political efficacy and political participation are moderated by political trust.The direct and indirect effects of political efficacy on political participation become non-significant for low political trust citizens.This study contributes to a better understanding of how and when political efficacy promotes citizens'electoral participation.
引文
(1)S.Verba K.L.Schlozman and H.Brady,Voice and Equality:Civic Voluntarism in American Politics,Cambridge,MA:Harvard University Press,1995,p.38.
(2)孙龙、雷弢:《区县人大代表选举中的选民参与---对北京选民的追踪调查与比较分析》,《江苏行政学院学报》2007年第1期;Q.Xu,D.D.Perkins and C.J.ChunChung,“Sense of Community,Neighboring,and Social Capital as Predictors of Local Political Participation in China,”American Journal of Community Psychology,vol.45,no.3-4,2010,pp.259-271.
(3)H.E.Brady and S.Verba,“Beyond SES:A Resource Model of Political Participation,”American Political Science Review,vol.89,no.2,1995,pp.271-294;J.Gandhi and E.Lust-Okar,“Elections under Authoritarianism,”Annual Review of Political Science,vol.12,2009,pp.403-422;L.Li,“Distrust in Government Leaders,Demand for Leadership Change,and Preference for Popular Elections in Rural China,”Political Behavior,vol.33,no.2,2011,pp.291-311.
(4)R.Bekkers,“Participation in Voluntary Associations:Relations with Resources,Personality,and Political Values,”Political Psychology,vol.26,no.3,2005,pp.439-454;R.Frank,“How Internal Political Efficacy Translates Political Knowledge Into Political Participation:Evidence From Germany,”Europes Journal of Psychology,vol.12,no.2,2016,pp.221-241;H.Schoen and S.Schumann,“Personality Traits,Partisan Attitudes,and Voting Behavior.Evidence from Germany,”Political Psychology,vol.28,no.4,2007,pp.471-498.
(5)J.Gandhi and E.Lust-Okar,“Elections under Authoritarianism,”Annual Review of Political Science,vol.12,no.1,2009,pp.403-422.
(6)J.Chen and Y.Zhong,“Why Do People Vote in Semicompetitive Election in China?”The Journal of Politics,vol.64,no.1,2002,pp.178-197.
(7)M.Guan and D.P.Green,“Noncoercive Mobilization in State-Controlled Elections:An Experimental Study in Beijing,”Comparative Political Studies,vol.39,no.10,2006,pp.1175-1193.
(8)(35)X.Z.Zhang and W.Y.Lin,“Political Participation in an Unlikely Place:How Individuals Engage in Politics through Social Networking Sites in China,”International Journal of Communication,vol.8,no.1,2014,pp.21-42.
(9)N.A.Valentino,K.Gregorowicz and E.W.Groenendyk,“Efficacy,Emotions and the Habit of Participation,”Political Behavior,vol.31,no.3,2009,pp.307-330.
(10)R.G.Niemi,S.C.Craig and F.Mattei,“Measuring Internal Political Efficacy in the 1988National Election Study,”American Political Science Review,vol.85,no.4,1991,pp.1407-1413.
(11)K.Kenski and N.J.Stroud,“Connections between Internet Use and Political Efficacy,Knowledge,and Participation,”Journal of Broadcasting&Electronic Media,vol.50,no.2,2006,pp.173-192.
(12)G.V.Caprara,M.Vecchione,C.Capanna,M.Mebane,“Perceived Political Self-Efficacy:Theory,Assessment,and Applications,”European Journal of Social Psychology,vol.39,no.6,2009,pp.1002-1020;李蓉蓉:《农民政治效能感对政治参与影响的实证研究》,《深圳大学学报(人文社会科学版)》2013年第4期;郑建君:《个体与区域变量对公民选举参与的影响---基于8506份中国公民有效数据的分析》,《政治学研究》2016年第5期。
(13)L.J.Li,“The Empowering Effect of Village Elections in China,”Asian Survey,vol.43,no.4,2003,pp.648-662.
(14)S.E.Finkel,“Reciprocal Effects of Participation and Political Efficacy:A Panel Analysis,”American Journal of Political Science,vol.29,no.4,1985,pp.891-913;N.A.Valentino,K.Gregorowicz and E.W.Groenendyk,“Efficacy,Emotions and the Habit of Participation,”Political Behavior,vol.31,no.3,2009,pp.307-330.
(15)J.Lu and T.J.Shi,“Political Experience:A Missing Variable in the Study of Political Transformation,”Comparative Politics,vol.42,No.1,2009,pp.103-120;N.Wen,X.Hao and C.George,“Gender and Political Participation:News Consumption,Political Efficacy and Interpersonal Communication,”Asian Journal of Womens Studies,vol.19,no.4,2013,pp.124-149.
(16)I.Ajzen,“Perceived Behavioral Control,Self-Efficacy,Locus of Control,and the Theory of Planned Behavior,”Journal of Applied Social Psychology,vol.32,no.4,2002,pp.665-683.
(17)R.Frank,“How Internal Political Efficacy Translates Political Knowledge into Political Participation:Evidence from Germany,”Europes Journal of Psychology,vol.12,no.2,2016,pp.221-241.
(18)D.Trafimow,P.Sheeran,M.Conner,K.A.Finlay,“Evidence that Perceived Behavioural Control is a Multidimensional Construct:Perceived Control and Perceived Difficulty,”British Journal of Social Psychology,vol.41,no.1,2002,pp.101-121.
(19)郭小安、张伟伟:《新媒体从业人员的政治效能感与政治参与意愿---一项针对成、渝两地新媒体从业者的调查研究》,《新闻大学》2016年第4期;M.K.Pavlova,R.K.Silbereisen,“Supportive Social Contexts and Intentions for Civic and Political Participation:An Application of the Theory of Planned Behaviour,”Journal of Community&Applied Social Psychology,vol.25,no.5,2015,pp.432-446;K.Eckstein,P.Noack and B.Gniewosz,“Predictors of Intentions to Participate in Politics and Actual Political Behaviors in Young Adulthood,”International Journal of Behavioral Development,vol.37,no.5,2013,pp.428-435.
(20)L.Li,“Distrust in Government Leaders,Demand for Leadership Change,and Preference for Popular Elections in Rural China,”Political Behavior,vol.33,no.2,2011,pp.291-311.
(21)M.S.H.Swapan,“Who Participates and Who Doesnt?Adapting Community Participation Model for Developing Countries,”Cities,vol.53,2016,pp.70-77.
(22)K.Eckstein,P.Noack and B.Gniewosz,“Predictors of Intentions to Participate in Politics and Actual Political Behaviors in Young Adulthood,”International Journal of Behavioral Development,vol.37,no.5,2013,pp.428-435.
(23)J.A.Karp and S.A.Banducci,“Political Efficacy and Participation in Twenty-Seven Democracies:How E-lectoral Systems Shape Political Behaviour,”British Journal of Political Science,vol.38,no.3,2008,pp.311-334.
(24)M.J.Hetherington,“The Political Relevance of Political Trust,”American Political Science Review,vol.92,no.4,1998,pp.791-808.
(25)D.Ma and F.Yang,“Authoritarian Orientations and Political Trust in East Asian Societies,”East Asia,vol.31,no.4,2014,pp.323-341.
(26)H.S.Kim,“Generalised Trust,Institutional Trust and Political Participation,”Asian Journal of Social Science,vol.42,no.6,2014,pp.695-721;R.Tao,F.B.Su,X.Sun,X.Lu,“Political Trust as Rational Belief:Evidence from Chinese Village Elections,”Journal of Comparative Economics,vol.39,no.1,2005,pp.108-121;孙昕、徐志刚、陶然、苏福兵:《政治信任、社会资本和村民选举参与---基于全国代表性样本调查的实证分析》,《社会学研究》2007年第4期;易承志:《政治信任与内在效能感对基层选举投票的影响》,《华中师范大学学报(人文社会科学版)》2015年第6期。
(27)M.Hooghe and S.Marien,“A Comparative Analysis of the Relation between Political Trust and Forms of Political Participation in Europe,”European Societies,vol.15,no.1,2013,pp.131-152;H.Suh,J.Yee and D.Chang,“Type of Trust and Political Participation in Five Countries,”Development&Society,vol.42,no.1,2013,pp.1-28.
(28)(36)M.J.Hetherington and S.Globetti,“Political Trust and Racial Policy Preferences,”American Journal of Political Science,vol.46,no.2,2002,pp.253-275;T.J.Rudolph and J.Evans,“Political Trust,Ideology,and Public Support for Government Spending,”American Journal of Political Science,vol.49,no.3,2005,pp.660-671.
(29)S.Wang,“Political Use of the Internet,Political Attitudes and Political Participation,”Asian Journal of Communication,vol.17,no.4,2007,pp.381-395;M.Hooghe and S.Marien,“A Comparative Analysis of the Relation between Political Trust and Forms of Political Participation in Europe,”European Societies,vol.15,no.1,2013,pp.131-152.
(30)郑建君:《政治信任、社会公正与政治参与的关系---一项基于625名中国被试的实证分析》,《政治学研究》2013年第6期。
(31)房宁:《中国政治参与报告(2012)》,北京:社会科学文献出版社,2012年,第2-22页。
(32)孙昕、徐志刚、陶然、苏福兵:《政治信任、社会资本和村民选举参与----基于全国代表性样本调查的实证分析》,《社会学研究》2007年第4期。
(33)L.H.Hoffman,P.E.Jones and D.G.Young,“Does My Comment Count?Perceptions of Political Participation in an Online Environment,”Computers in Human Behavior,vol.29,no.6,2013,pp.2248-2256;L.Li,“Distrust in Government Leaders,Demand for Leadership Change,and Preference for Popular Elections in Rural China,”Political Behavior,vol.33,no.2,2011,pp.291-311;M.K.Pavlova and R.K.Silbereisen,“Supportive Social Contexts and Intentions for Civic and Political Participation:An Application of the Theory of Planned Behaviour,”Journal of Community&Applied Social Psychology,vol.25,No.5,2015,pp.432-446.
(34)K.Eckstein,P.Noack and B.Gniewosz,“Predictors of Intentions to Participate in Politics and Actual Political Behaviors in Young Adulthood,”International Journal of Behavioral Development,vol.37,no.5,2013,pp.428-435;M.S.H.Swapan,“Who Participates and Who Doesnt?Adapting Community Participation Model for Developing Countries,”Cities,vol.53,2016,pp.70-77.
(2)孙龙、雷弢:《区县人大代表选举中的选民参与---对北京选民的追踪调查与比较分析》,《江苏行政学院学报》2007年第1期;Q.Xu,D.D.Perkins and C.J.ChunChung,“Sense of Community,Neighboring,and Social Capital as Predictors of Local Political Participation in China,”American Journal of Community Psychology,vol.45,no.3-4,2010,pp.259-271.
(3)H.E.Brady and S.Verba,“Beyond SES:A Resource Model of Political Participation,”American Political Science Review,vol.89,no.2,1995,pp.271-294;J.Gandhi and E.Lust-Okar,“Elections under Authoritarianism,”Annual Review of Political Science,vol.12,2009,pp.403-422;L.Li,“Distrust in Government Leaders,Demand for Leadership Change,and Preference for Popular Elections in Rural China,”Political Behavior,vol.33,no.2,2011,pp.291-311.
(4)R.Bekkers,“Participation in Voluntary Associations:Relations with Resources,Personality,and Political Values,”Political Psychology,vol.26,no.3,2005,pp.439-454;R.Frank,“How Internal Political Efficacy Translates Political Knowledge Into Political Participation:Evidence From Germany,”Europes Journal of Psychology,vol.12,no.2,2016,pp.221-241;H.Schoen and S.Schumann,“Personality Traits,Partisan Attitudes,and Voting Behavior.Evidence from Germany,”Political Psychology,vol.28,no.4,2007,pp.471-498.
(5)J.Gandhi and E.Lust-Okar,“Elections under Authoritarianism,”Annual Review of Political Science,vol.12,no.1,2009,pp.403-422.
(6)J.Chen and Y.Zhong,“Why Do People Vote in Semicompetitive Election in China?”The Journal of Politics,vol.64,no.1,2002,pp.178-197.
(7)M.Guan and D.P.Green,“Noncoercive Mobilization in State-Controlled Elections:An Experimental Study in Beijing,”Comparative Political Studies,vol.39,no.10,2006,pp.1175-1193.
(8)(35)X.Z.Zhang and W.Y.Lin,“Political Participation in an Unlikely Place:How Individuals Engage in Politics through Social Networking Sites in China,”International Journal of Communication,vol.8,no.1,2014,pp.21-42.
(9)N.A.Valentino,K.Gregorowicz and E.W.Groenendyk,“Efficacy,Emotions and the Habit of Participation,”Political Behavior,vol.31,no.3,2009,pp.307-330.
(10)R.G.Niemi,S.C.Craig and F.Mattei,“Measuring Internal Political Efficacy in the 1988National Election Study,”American Political Science Review,vol.85,no.4,1991,pp.1407-1413.
(11)K.Kenski and N.J.Stroud,“Connections between Internet Use and Political Efficacy,Knowledge,and Participation,”Journal of Broadcasting&Electronic Media,vol.50,no.2,2006,pp.173-192.
(12)G.V.Caprara,M.Vecchione,C.Capanna,M.Mebane,“Perceived Political Self-Efficacy:Theory,Assessment,and Applications,”European Journal of Social Psychology,vol.39,no.6,2009,pp.1002-1020;李蓉蓉:《农民政治效能感对政治参与影响的实证研究》,《深圳大学学报(人文社会科学版)》2013年第4期;郑建君:《个体与区域变量对公民选举参与的影响---基于8506份中国公民有效数据的分析》,《政治学研究》2016年第5期。
(13)L.J.Li,“The Empowering Effect of Village Elections in China,”Asian Survey,vol.43,no.4,2003,pp.648-662.
(14)S.E.Finkel,“Reciprocal Effects of Participation and Political Efficacy:A Panel Analysis,”American Journal of Political Science,vol.29,no.4,1985,pp.891-913;N.A.Valentino,K.Gregorowicz and E.W.Groenendyk,“Efficacy,Emotions and the Habit of Participation,”Political Behavior,vol.31,no.3,2009,pp.307-330.
(15)J.Lu and T.J.Shi,“Political Experience:A Missing Variable in the Study of Political Transformation,”Comparative Politics,vol.42,No.1,2009,pp.103-120;N.Wen,X.Hao and C.George,“Gender and Political Participation:News Consumption,Political Efficacy and Interpersonal Communication,”Asian Journal of Womens Studies,vol.19,no.4,2013,pp.124-149.
(16)I.Ajzen,“Perceived Behavioral Control,Self-Efficacy,Locus of Control,and the Theory of Planned Behavior,”Journal of Applied Social Psychology,vol.32,no.4,2002,pp.665-683.
(17)R.Frank,“How Internal Political Efficacy Translates Political Knowledge into Political Participation:Evidence from Germany,”Europes Journal of Psychology,vol.12,no.2,2016,pp.221-241.
(18)D.Trafimow,P.Sheeran,M.Conner,K.A.Finlay,“Evidence that Perceived Behavioural Control is a Multidimensional Construct:Perceived Control and Perceived Difficulty,”British Journal of Social Psychology,vol.41,no.1,2002,pp.101-121.
(19)郭小安、张伟伟:《新媒体从业人员的政治效能感与政治参与意愿---一项针对成、渝两地新媒体从业者的调查研究》,《新闻大学》2016年第4期;M.K.Pavlova,R.K.Silbereisen,“Supportive Social Contexts and Intentions for Civic and Political Participation:An Application of the Theory of Planned Behaviour,”Journal of Community&Applied Social Psychology,vol.25,no.5,2015,pp.432-446;K.Eckstein,P.Noack and B.Gniewosz,“Predictors of Intentions to Participate in Politics and Actual Political Behaviors in Young Adulthood,”International Journal of Behavioral Development,vol.37,no.5,2013,pp.428-435.
(20)L.Li,“Distrust in Government Leaders,Demand for Leadership Change,and Preference for Popular Elections in Rural China,”Political Behavior,vol.33,no.2,2011,pp.291-311.
(21)M.S.H.Swapan,“Who Participates and Who Doesnt?Adapting Community Participation Model for Developing Countries,”Cities,vol.53,2016,pp.70-77.
(22)K.Eckstein,P.Noack and B.Gniewosz,“Predictors of Intentions to Participate in Politics and Actual Political Behaviors in Young Adulthood,”International Journal of Behavioral Development,vol.37,no.5,2013,pp.428-435.
(23)J.A.Karp and S.A.Banducci,“Political Efficacy and Participation in Twenty-Seven Democracies:How E-lectoral Systems Shape Political Behaviour,”British Journal of Political Science,vol.38,no.3,2008,pp.311-334.
(24)M.J.Hetherington,“The Political Relevance of Political Trust,”American Political Science Review,vol.92,no.4,1998,pp.791-808.
(25)D.Ma and F.Yang,“Authoritarian Orientations and Political Trust in East Asian Societies,”East Asia,vol.31,no.4,2014,pp.323-341.
(26)H.S.Kim,“Generalised Trust,Institutional Trust and Political Participation,”Asian Journal of Social Science,vol.42,no.6,2014,pp.695-721;R.Tao,F.B.Su,X.Sun,X.Lu,“Political Trust as Rational Belief:Evidence from Chinese Village Elections,”Journal of Comparative Economics,vol.39,no.1,2005,pp.108-121;孙昕、徐志刚、陶然、苏福兵:《政治信任、社会资本和村民选举参与---基于全国代表性样本调查的实证分析》,《社会学研究》2007年第4期;易承志:《政治信任与内在效能感对基层选举投票的影响》,《华中师范大学学报(人文社会科学版)》2015年第6期。
(27)M.Hooghe and S.Marien,“A Comparative Analysis of the Relation between Political Trust and Forms of Political Participation in Europe,”European Societies,vol.15,no.1,2013,pp.131-152;H.Suh,J.Yee and D.Chang,“Type of Trust and Political Participation in Five Countries,”Development&Society,vol.42,no.1,2013,pp.1-28.
(28)(36)M.J.Hetherington and S.Globetti,“Political Trust and Racial Policy Preferences,”American Journal of Political Science,vol.46,no.2,2002,pp.253-275;T.J.Rudolph and J.Evans,“Political Trust,Ideology,and Public Support for Government Spending,”American Journal of Political Science,vol.49,no.3,2005,pp.660-671.
(29)S.Wang,“Political Use of the Internet,Political Attitudes and Political Participation,”Asian Journal of Communication,vol.17,no.4,2007,pp.381-395;M.Hooghe and S.Marien,“A Comparative Analysis of the Relation between Political Trust and Forms of Political Participation in Europe,”European Societies,vol.15,no.1,2013,pp.131-152.
(30)郑建君:《政治信任、社会公正与政治参与的关系---一项基于625名中国被试的实证分析》,《政治学研究》2013年第6期。
(31)房宁:《中国政治参与报告(2012)》,北京:社会科学文献出版社,2012年,第2-22页。
(32)孙昕、徐志刚、陶然、苏福兵:《政治信任、社会资本和村民选举参与----基于全国代表性样本调查的实证分析》,《社会学研究》2007年第4期。
(33)L.H.Hoffman,P.E.Jones and D.G.Young,“Does My Comment Count?Perceptions of Political Participation in an Online Environment,”Computers in Human Behavior,vol.29,no.6,2013,pp.2248-2256;L.Li,“Distrust in Government Leaders,Demand for Leadership Change,and Preference for Popular Elections in Rural China,”Political Behavior,vol.33,no.2,2011,pp.291-311;M.K.Pavlova and R.K.Silbereisen,“Supportive Social Contexts and Intentions for Civic and Political Participation:An Application of the Theory of Planned Behaviour,”Journal of Community&Applied Social Psychology,vol.25,No.5,2015,pp.432-446.
(34)K.Eckstein,P.Noack and B.Gniewosz,“Predictors of Intentions to Participate in Politics and Actual Political Behaviors in Young Adulthood,”International Journal of Behavioral Development,vol.37,no.5,2013,pp.428-435;M.S.H.Swapan,“Who Participates and Who Doesnt?Adapting Community Participation Model for Developing Countries,”Cities,vol.53,2016,pp.70-77.
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