城市建筑群概率地震灾害风险评估研究
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摘要
科学合理地考虑地震风险评估中各环节的不确定性是地震风险评估结果可靠的基础。该文利用某城市现有工程场地地震安全性评价数据,综合考虑城市地震危险性评估中的不确定性,以结构基本类作为城市建筑群模型,并考虑地震动不确定性对建筑群地震易损性的影响,建立了同时考虑地震危险性和地震易损性不确定性的地震风险评估模型,最终给出城市结构基本类不同极限破坏状态的年平均超越概率和50年内地震风险概率。基于结构不同极限破坏状态对应的损失比,获得每一种结构基本类的地震经济损失风险曲线。在此基础上,提出了采用地震风险一致概率为控制点,得到城市建筑群总的地震经济损失风险曲线组合的方法,该方法可为评估城市建筑群概率地震风险提供参考。
It is the basis for a reliable result to consider the uncertainties in all aspects of seismic risk assessment scientifically and reasonably. This paper established a seismic risk assessment model in which the uncertainties of seismic hazard and structural vulnerability are taken into account comprehensively. In this model, the uncertainty of seismic hazard assessment(SHA) was discussed by using the data of earthquake safety evaluation for engineering sites in a city. Meanwhile, the impact of ground motion uncertainty on structural vulnerability of urban building complexes(UBCs) were analyzed on the basis of the basic structure classes(BSCs) of UBCs.Based on the above study, the mean-annual-exceeding probability and the earthquake risk probability within 50 years at different damage state thresholds of the urban BSCs were obtained. Moreover, the seismic economic loss risk curve for each BSC was drawn according to the loss ratios corresponding to different damage state thresholds.Finally, the general seismic economic loss risk curve for UBCs in a city was combined by using control points with equal probability in each curve of individual buildings, which provided a reference for assessing the seismic risk of UBCs.
It is the basis for a reliable result to consider the uncertainties in all aspects of seismic risk assessment scientifically and reasonably. This paper established a seismic risk assessment model in which the uncertainties of seismic hazard and structural vulnerability are taken into account comprehensively. In this model, the uncertainty of seismic hazard assessment(SHA) was discussed by using the data of earthquake safety evaluation for engineering sites in a city. Meanwhile, the impact of ground motion uncertainty on structural vulnerability of urban building complexes(UBCs) were analyzed on the basis of the basic structure classes(BSCs) of UBCs.Based on the above study, the mean-annual-exceeding probability and the earthquake risk probability within 50 years at different damage state thresholds of the urban BSCs were obtained. Moreover, the seismic economic loss risk curve for each BSC was drawn according to the loss ratios corresponding to different damage state thresholds.Finally, the general seismic economic loss risk curve for UBCs in a city was combined by using control points with equal probability in each curve of individual buildings, which provided a reference for assessing the seismic risk of UBCs.
引文
[1]GB 18306-2015,中国地震动参数区划图[S].北京:中国质检出版社,2015.GB 18306-2015,Seismic ground motion parameters zonation map of china[S].Beijing:China Zhijian Publishing House,2015.(in Chinese)
[2]孙柏涛,张桂欣.中国大陆建筑物地震灾害风险分布研究[J].土木工程学报:2017,50(9):1-7.Sun Baitao,Zhang Guixin.Study on seismic disaster risk distribution of buildings in mainland China[J].China Civil Engineering Journal,2017,50(9):1-7.(in Chinese)
[3]于晓辉,吕大刚.基于地震易损性解析函数的概率地震风险应用研究[J].建筑结构学报:2013,34(10):49-56.Yu Xiaohui,LüDagang.Application study of probabilistic seismic risk assessment based on analytical functions of seismic fragility[J].Journal of Building Structures,2013,34(10):49-56.(in Chinese)
[4]张凯.桥梁结构基于性能的地震风险评估方法研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2017:127-128.Zhang Kai.Performance-based seismic risk assessment for bridge structure[D].Beijing:Beijing Jiaotong University,2017:127-128.(in Chinese)
[5]LüDagang,Yu Xiaohui,JiaMingming,et al.Seismic risk assessment for a reinforced concrete frame designed according to Chinese codes[J].Structure and Infrastructure Engineering,2013,10(10):1295-1310.
[6]Bradley B A,Dhakal R P,Cubrinovski M,et al.Improved seismic hazard model with application to probabilistic seismic demand analysis[J].Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics,2007,36(14):2211-2225.
[7]潘华.概率地震危险性分析中参数不确定性研究[D].北京:中国地震局地球物理研究所,2000.Pan Hua.Study on uncertainties in the parameters of PSHA[D].Beijing:institute of Geophysics CSB,2000.(in Chinese)
[8]陈卓识.现场剪切波速测试误差及其对地震动影响研究[D].哈尔滨:中国地震局工程力学研究所,2015.Chen Zhuoshi.The study of situ shear wave velocity test error and its effects on ground motion[D].Harbin:Institute of Engineering Mechanics,China Earthquake Administration,2015.(in Chinese)
[9]曹康泰,陈建民.中华人民共和国防震减灾法解读[M].北京:中国法制出版社,2009:104-105.Cao Kangtai,Chen Jianmin.Interpretation of law of the people’s republic of China on protecting against and mitigating earthquake disasters[M].Beijing:China Legal Publishing House,2015:104-105.(in Chinese)
[10]韩博.基于GPU-CPU协同计算的城市城市建筑震害预测[D].北京:清华大学,2014:25-28.Han Bo.Seismic damage prediction for buildings in urban areas based on GPU-CPU cooperative computing[D].Beijing:Tsinghua University,2014:25-28.(in Chinese)
[11]Xiong Chen,Lu Xinzheng,Lin Xuchuan,et al.Parameter determination and damage assessment for THA-based regional seismic damage prediction of multi-story buildings[J].Journal of Earthquake Engineering,2017,21(3):461-485.
[12]Federal Emergency Management Agency(FEMA).Multi-hazard loss estimation methodology hazus-MH2.1 advanced engineering building module(AEBM)technical and user’s manual[R].Washington,D.C.:Federal Emergency Management Agency,2012(15):48-51.
[13]Lin Shibin,Xie Lili,Gong M S,et al.Performance-based methodology for assessing seismic vulnerability and capacity of buildings[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,2010,9(2):157-165.
[14]GB/T 18208.4-2011,地震现场工作第4部分:灾害直接损失评估[S].北京:地震出版社,2011.GB/T 18208.4-2011,Post earthquake field works-Part4:Assessment of direct loss[S].Beijing:Seismological Press,2011.(in Chinese)
[15]Chopro Anil K.结构动力学:理论及其在地震工程中的应用[M].2版.谢礼立,吕大刚,等译.北京:高等教育出版社,2005:290-292,348-350.Chopra Anil K.Dynamics of structures theory and applications to earthquake engineering[M].2nd ed.Translate by,Xie Lili,LüDagang,et al.Beijing:Higher Education Press(HEP),2005:290-292,348-350.(in Chinese)
[16]GB 50011-2010,建筑抗震设计规范[S].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2010.GB 50011-2010,Code for seismic design of building[S].Beijing:China Architecture&Building Press,2010.(in Chinese)
[17]吕红山,赵凤新.适用于中国场地分类的地震动反应谱放大系数[J].地震学报,2007,29(1):67-76.LüHongshan,Zhao Fengxin.Site coefficients suitable to China site category[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,2007,29(1):67-76.(in Chinese)
[18]Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center(PEER).NGA-Next generation attenuation project[DB/OL].https://ngawest2.berkeley.edu/.[2017-02-07]
[19]周宝峰.强震观测中的关键技术研究[J].国际地震动态,2013(5):43-44.Zhou Baofeng.Some key issues on the strong motion observation[J].Recent Developments in World Seismology,2013(5):43-44.(in Chinese)
[20]吕大刚,于晓辉.基于地震易损性解析函数的概率地震风险理论研究[J].建筑结构学报,2013,34(10):41-48.LüDagang,Yu Xiaohui.Theoretical study of probabilistic seismic risk assessment based on analytical functions of seismic fragility[J].Journal of Building Structures,2013,34(10):41-48.(in Chinese)
[2]孙柏涛,张桂欣.中国大陆建筑物地震灾害风险分布研究[J].土木工程学报:2017,50(9):1-7.Sun Baitao,Zhang Guixin.Study on seismic disaster risk distribution of buildings in mainland China[J].China Civil Engineering Journal,2017,50(9):1-7.(in Chinese)
[3]于晓辉,吕大刚.基于地震易损性解析函数的概率地震风险应用研究[J].建筑结构学报:2013,34(10):49-56.Yu Xiaohui,LüDagang.Application study of probabilistic seismic risk assessment based on analytical functions of seismic fragility[J].Journal of Building Structures,2013,34(10):49-56.(in Chinese)
[4]张凯.桥梁结构基于性能的地震风险评估方法研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2017:127-128.Zhang Kai.Performance-based seismic risk assessment for bridge structure[D].Beijing:Beijing Jiaotong University,2017:127-128.(in Chinese)
[5]LüDagang,Yu Xiaohui,JiaMingming,et al.Seismic risk assessment for a reinforced concrete frame designed according to Chinese codes[J].Structure and Infrastructure Engineering,2013,10(10):1295-1310.
[6]Bradley B A,Dhakal R P,Cubrinovski M,et al.Improved seismic hazard model with application to probabilistic seismic demand analysis[J].Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics,2007,36(14):2211-2225.
[7]潘华.概率地震危险性分析中参数不确定性研究[D].北京:中国地震局地球物理研究所,2000.Pan Hua.Study on uncertainties in the parameters of PSHA[D].Beijing:institute of Geophysics CSB,2000.(in Chinese)
[8]陈卓识.现场剪切波速测试误差及其对地震动影响研究[D].哈尔滨:中国地震局工程力学研究所,2015.Chen Zhuoshi.The study of situ shear wave velocity test error and its effects on ground motion[D].Harbin:Institute of Engineering Mechanics,China Earthquake Administration,2015.(in Chinese)
[9]曹康泰,陈建民.中华人民共和国防震减灾法解读[M].北京:中国法制出版社,2009:104-105.Cao Kangtai,Chen Jianmin.Interpretation of law of the people’s republic of China on protecting against and mitigating earthquake disasters[M].Beijing:China Legal Publishing House,2015:104-105.(in Chinese)
[10]韩博.基于GPU-CPU协同计算的城市城市建筑震害预测[D].北京:清华大学,2014:25-28.Han Bo.Seismic damage prediction for buildings in urban areas based on GPU-CPU cooperative computing[D].Beijing:Tsinghua University,2014:25-28.(in Chinese)
[11]Xiong Chen,Lu Xinzheng,Lin Xuchuan,et al.Parameter determination and damage assessment for THA-based regional seismic damage prediction of multi-story buildings[J].Journal of Earthquake Engineering,2017,21(3):461-485.
[12]Federal Emergency Management Agency(FEMA).Multi-hazard loss estimation methodology hazus-MH2.1 advanced engineering building module(AEBM)technical and user’s manual[R].Washington,D.C.:Federal Emergency Management Agency,2012(15):48-51.
[13]Lin Shibin,Xie Lili,Gong M S,et al.Performance-based methodology for assessing seismic vulnerability and capacity of buildings[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,2010,9(2):157-165.
[14]GB/T 18208.4-2011,地震现场工作第4部分:灾害直接损失评估[S].北京:地震出版社,2011.GB/T 18208.4-2011,Post earthquake field works-Part4:Assessment of direct loss[S].Beijing:Seismological Press,2011.(in Chinese)
[15]Chopro Anil K.结构动力学:理论及其在地震工程中的应用[M].2版.谢礼立,吕大刚,等译.北京:高等教育出版社,2005:290-292,348-350.Chopra Anil K.Dynamics of structures theory and applications to earthquake engineering[M].2nd ed.Translate by,Xie Lili,LüDagang,et al.Beijing:Higher Education Press(HEP),2005:290-292,348-350.(in Chinese)
[16]GB 50011-2010,建筑抗震设计规范[S].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2010.GB 50011-2010,Code for seismic design of building[S].Beijing:China Architecture&Building Press,2010.(in Chinese)
[17]吕红山,赵凤新.适用于中国场地分类的地震动反应谱放大系数[J].地震学报,2007,29(1):67-76.LüHongshan,Zhao Fengxin.Site coefficients suitable to China site category[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,2007,29(1):67-76.(in Chinese)
[18]Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center(PEER).NGA-Next generation attenuation project[DB/OL].https://ngawest2.berkeley.edu/.[2017-02-07]
[19]周宝峰.强震观测中的关键技术研究[J].国际地震动态,2013(5):43-44.Zhou Baofeng.Some key issues on the strong motion observation[J].Recent Developments in World Seismology,2013(5):43-44.(in Chinese)
[20]吕大刚,于晓辉.基于地震易损性解析函数的概率地震风险理论研究[J].建筑结构学报,2013,34(10):41-48.LüDagang,Yu Xiaohui.Theoretical study of probabilistic seismic risk assessment based on analytical functions of seismic fragility[J].Journal of Building Structures,2013,34(10):41-48.(in Chinese)