基于变化点的青藏高原植被时空动态变化研究
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摘要
青藏高原脆弱的生态圈和独特的高寒地理环境,使得高原植被对气候变化反应敏感,因此探讨青藏高原植被变化趋势在认识植被对气候变化响应和区域生态保护方面具有重要意义。基于1982～2012年GIMMS NDVI3g植被指数数据集,通过季节趋势分析和变化点检测方法建立季节趋势模型对变化趋势进行分类研究,并结合土地覆被分类情况明确了高原植被在时间序列变化点前后变化趋势的时空格局。结果表明:①季节趋势模型能够有效地识别植被时间序列的变化点,发现青藏高原植被变化点时间分布跨度大,空间异质性强;②高原植被的改善区域面积大于退化区域面积,西部植被略呈退化趋势,南部和东北部植被退化趋势明显,中东部植被情况有所改善。此外,有58.93%的区域中植被状态趋于稳定,32.3%的区域中植被状态变化显著;③在高原植被状态发生一般或显著变化的区域中,单调趋势和中断趋势的植被改善情况多于退化情况,逆趋势中退化情况多于改善情况;3.14%的区域发生单调趋势变化,58.36%的区域发生中断趋势变化,38.50%的区域发生逆趋势变化;单调趋势和中断趋势的时间分布较为集中,逆趋势则布满整个时间序列;④高原不同的土地覆被类型中植被改善和退化的情况有所差异,其中改善率最高的类型是沙漠(53.30%),稀疏植被的退化率最高(60.14%)。总体而言,青藏高原植被趋于改善,但空间异质性比较显著。
Due to the fragile ecosystem and unique geographical environment on the TP,the vegetation strongly responds to climatic shifts.Therefore,it is of great significance to discuss the spatiotemporal trend shift of vegetation,to evaluate the climate change of the plateau and to predict regional ecological development.Using the GIMMS NDVI3g dataset from 1982 to 2012 to extract the NDVI information of the TP,as well as establishing seasonal trend model to classify research through the seasonal trend analysis and breakpoints detection method,reveals the spatiotemporal pattern of the trend shifts of plateau vegetation at both ends of the breakpoints combining the classification of land cover.The results shows that conclusions.(1) The seasonal trend model can effectively identify the breakpoints of vegetation time series,moreover the time span of the breakpoints were large and the spatial heterogeneity were strong.(2) The trend of vegetation degeneration in the western part of the Tibetan Plateau was small,vegetation degeneration in the south and northeast regions was obvious,and vegetation in the central and eastern regions has improved.58.93% of the vegetation status tends to be stable.The area where the vegetation status changes significantly accounts for about 32.3% of the entire plateau.(3) In the area where the vegetation status is generally or significantly changed,the vegetation improvement of monotonous trend and interruption trend were more than that of degradation,and the degenerative situation in the reverse trend were more than the improvement.Monotonous trend changed in 3.14% of the regions,58.36% of the regions occurred interruption trend changes,and 38.50% of regions occurred reverse trends.The time distribution of the monotonous trend and the interruption trend were more concentrated,while the reverse trend covered the entire time series.(4) The vegetation improvement and degradation in different land cover types were various conditions.The type with the highest rate of improvement was desert(53.30%),and the type with the highest rate of degradation was sparse vegetation(60.14%).Overall,the vegetation in Tibetan plateau tends to be greening,but the spatial heterogeneity remains significant.
Due to the fragile ecosystem and unique geographical environment on the TP,the vegetation strongly responds to climatic shifts.Therefore,it is of great significance to discuss the spatiotemporal trend shift of vegetation,to evaluate the climate change of the plateau and to predict regional ecological development.Using the GIMMS NDVI3g dataset from 1982 to 2012 to extract the NDVI information of the TP,as well as establishing seasonal trend model to classify research through the seasonal trend analysis and breakpoints detection method,reveals the spatiotemporal pattern of the trend shifts of plateau vegetation at both ends of the breakpoints combining the classification of land cover.The results shows that conclusions.(1) The seasonal trend model can effectively identify the breakpoints of vegetation time series,moreover the time span of the breakpoints were large and the spatial heterogeneity were strong.(2) The trend of vegetation degeneration in the western part of the Tibetan Plateau was small,vegetation degeneration in the south and northeast regions was obvious,and vegetation in the central and eastern regions has improved.58.93% of the vegetation status tends to be stable.The area where the vegetation status changes significantly accounts for about 32.3% of the entire plateau.(3) In the area where the vegetation status is generally or significantly changed,the vegetation improvement of monotonous trend and interruption trend were more than that of degradation,and the degenerative situation in the reverse trend were more than the improvement.Monotonous trend changed in 3.14% of the regions,58.36% of the regions occurred interruption trend changes,and 38.50% of regions occurred reverse trends.The time distribution of the monotonous trend and the interruption trend were more concentrated,while the reverse trend covered the entire time series.(4) The vegetation improvement and degradation in different land cover types were various conditions.The type with the highest rate of improvement was desert(53.30%),and the type with the highest rate of degradation was sparse vegetation(60.14%).Overall,the vegetation in Tibetan plateau tends to be greening,but the spatial heterogeneity remains significant.
引文
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[14] Jiang N,Zhu W,Zheng Z,et al.A Comparative Analysis between GIMSS NDVIg and NDVI3g?for Monitoring Vegetation Activity Change in the Northern Hemisphere during 1982～2008[J].Remote Sensing,2013,5(8):4031-4044.
[15] Liu Shuangyu,Zhang Li,Wang Cuizhen,et al.Vegetation Phenology in the Tibetan Plateau Using MODIS Data from 2000 to 2010[J].Remote Sensing Information,2014(6):25-30.[刘双俞,张丽,王翠珍,等.基于MODIS数据的青藏高原植被物候变化趋势研究(2000年～2010年)[J].遥感信息,2014(6):25-30.]
[16] Fan Guangzhou,Hua Wei,Huang Xianlun,et al.Advances of the Study on Influence of Vegetation Change over Tibetan Plateau on Regional Climate[J].Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research,2008,28(1):72-80.[范广洲,华维,黄先伦,等.青藏高原植被变化对区域气候影响研究进展[J].高原山地气象研究,2008,28(1):72-80.]
[17] Peng D,Zhang B,Liu L,et al.Seasonal Dynamic Pattern Analysis on Global FPAR Derived from AVHRR GIMMS NDVI[J].International Journal of Digital Earth,2012,5(5):439-455.
[18] Wu Yongli,Luan Qin,Zhao Yongqiang,et al.Analyses on Spatial-Temporal Change Characteristics of NDVI during the Past 25 Years in Shanxi[J].Ecology and Environment,2008,17(6):2330-2335.[武永利,栾青,赵永强,等.近25年山西植被指数时空变化特征分析[J].生态环境学报,2008,17(6):2330-2335.]
[19] Wang Zhaoli,Huang Zeqin,Li Jun,et al.Assessing Impacts of Meteorological Drought on Vegetation at Catchment Scale in China based on SPEI and NDVI[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2016,32(14):177-186.[王兆礼,黄泽勤,李军,等.基于SPEI和NDVI的中国流域尺度气象干旱及植被分布时空演变[J].农业工程学报,2016,32(14):177-186.]
[20] Jong R D,Verbesselt J,Zeileis A,et al.Shifts in Global Vegetation Activity Trends[J].Remote Sensing,2013,5(3):1117-1133.
[21] Stow D,Daeschner S,Hope A,et al.Variability of the Seasonally Integrated Normalized Difference Vegetation Index Across the North Slope of Alaska in the 1990s[J].International Journal of Remote Sensing,2003,24(5):1111-1117.
[22] Verbesselt J,Zeileis A,Herold M.Near Real-time Disturbance Detection using Satellite Image Time Series[J].Remote Sensing of Environment,2012,123(123):98-108.
[23] Potter C,Tan P N,Steinbach M,et al.Major Disturbance Events in Terrestrial Ecosystems Detected using Global Satellite Data sets[J].Global Change Biology,2010,9(7):1005-1021.
[24] Zeileis A,Leisch F,Hornik K,et al.Strucchange:An R Package for Testing for Structural Change in Linear Regression Models[J].Journal of Statistical Software,2002,7(2):1-38.
[25] Lü Canbin,Tibetan Plateau′s Vegetation Phenology′ Variations and the Analysis its Driving Factors[D].Beijing:China University of Geosciences,2014.[吕灿宾.青藏高原植被覆盖变化的节律及驱动因子分析[D].北京:中国地质大学,2014.]
[26] Yin H,Pflugmacher D,Li A,et al.Land Use and Land Cover Change in Inner Mongolia- Understanding the Effects of China’s Re-vegetation Programs[J].Remote Sensing of Environment,2018,204:918-930.
[2] Liu Yalong,Wang Qin,Bi Jingzhi,et al.The Analysis of NDVI Trends in the Coastal Zone based on Mann-Kendall Test:A Case in the Jiaodong Peninsula[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica,2010,32(3):79-87.[刘亚龙,王庆,毕景芝,等.基于Mann-Kendall方法的胶东半岛海岸带归一化植被指数趋势分析[J].海洋学报,2010,32(3):79-87.]
[3] Zou Xiao,Guo Yan,Tan Qinwen,et al.Analysis of NDVI Trend of Ruoergai Plateau during 1998 to 2008[J].Sichuan Environment,2013,(Sup.1):55-59.[邹孝,郭燕,谭钦文,等.1998～2008年川西北若尔盖高原NDVI变化趋势分析[J].四川环境,2013,(增刊1):55-59.]
[4] Liang Sihai,Chen Jiang,Jin Xiaomei,et al.Regularity of Vegetation Coverage Changes in the Tibetan Plateau over the Last 21 Years[J].Advances in Earth Science,2007,22(1):33-40.[梁四海,陈江,金晓媚,等.近21年青藏高原植被覆盖变化规律[J].地球科学进展,2007,22(1):33-40.]
[5] Jong R D,Verbesselt J,Schaepman M E,et al.Trend Changes in Global Greening and Browning:Contribution of Short-Term Trends to Longer-Term Change[J].Global Change Biology,2012,18(2):642-655.
[6] Jong R D,Bruin S D,Wit A D,et al.Analysis of Monotonic Greening and Browning Trends from Global NDVI Time-series[J].Remote Sensing of Environment,2011,115(2):692-702.
[7] Eastman J R,Sangermano F,Machado E A,et al.Global Trends in Seasonality of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI),1982～2011[J].Remote Sensing,2013,5(10):4799-4818.
[8] Xu Xinkui,Chen Hong,LEVY Jason K.Spatial and Temporal Variation of Vegetation Coverage and Its Causes in the Tibetan Plateau under Climate Warming[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2008,53(4):456-462.[徐兴奎,陈红,LEVY Jason K.气候变暖背景下青藏高原植被覆盖特征的时空变化及其成因分析[J].科学通报,2008,53(4):456-462.]
[9] Wang Qingxia,Lü Shihua,Bao Yan,et al.Characteristics of Vegetation Change and Its Relationship with Climate Factors in Different Time-scales on Qinghai-xizang Plateau[J].Plateau Meteorology,2014,33(2):301-312.[王青霞,吕世华,鲍艳,等.青藏高原不同时间尺度植被变化特征及其与气候因子的关系分析[J].高原气象,2014,33(2):301-312.]
[10] Zhou Ningfang,Qin Ningsheng,Tu Qipu,et al.Analyese on Regional Characteristics of Temperature Changes over Qinghai-Xizang Plateau in Recent 50 Years[J].Plateau Meteorology,2005,24(3):344-349.[周宁芳,秦宁生,屠其璞,等.近50年青藏高原地面气温变化的区域特征分析[J].高原气象,2005,24(3):344-349.]
[11] Ding Mingjun.Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Vegetation on the Tibetan Plateau and Its Response to Climate Change[D].Beijing:The Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,2008.[丁明军.青藏高原植被时空格局变化及其对气候变化的响应[D].北京:中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,2008.]
[12] Yang Yuanhe,Piao Shilong.Variations in Grassland Vegetation Cover in Relation to Climatic Factors on the Tibetan Plateau[J].Journal of Plant Ecology,2006(1):1-8.[杨元合,朴世龙.青藏高原草地植被覆盖变化及其与气候因子的关系[J].植物生态学报,2006(1):1-8.]
[13] Zhang Y,Song C,Band L E,et al.Reanalysis of Global Terrestrial Vegetation Trends from MODIS Products:Browning or Greening?[J].Remote Sensing of Environment,2017,191:145-155.
[14] Jiang N,Zhu W,Zheng Z,et al.A Comparative Analysis between GIMSS NDVIg and NDVI3g?for Monitoring Vegetation Activity Change in the Northern Hemisphere during 1982～2008[J].Remote Sensing,2013,5(8):4031-4044.
[15] Liu Shuangyu,Zhang Li,Wang Cuizhen,et al.Vegetation Phenology in the Tibetan Plateau Using MODIS Data from 2000 to 2010[J].Remote Sensing Information,2014(6):25-30.[刘双俞,张丽,王翠珍,等.基于MODIS数据的青藏高原植被物候变化趋势研究(2000年～2010年)[J].遥感信息,2014(6):25-30.]
[16] Fan Guangzhou,Hua Wei,Huang Xianlun,et al.Advances of the Study on Influence of Vegetation Change over Tibetan Plateau on Regional Climate[J].Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research,2008,28(1):72-80.[范广洲,华维,黄先伦,等.青藏高原植被变化对区域气候影响研究进展[J].高原山地气象研究,2008,28(1):72-80.]
[17] Peng D,Zhang B,Liu L,et al.Seasonal Dynamic Pattern Analysis on Global FPAR Derived from AVHRR GIMMS NDVI[J].International Journal of Digital Earth,2012,5(5):439-455.
[18] Wu Yongli,Luan Qin,Zhao Yongqiang,et al.Analyses on Spatial-Temporal Change Characteristics of NDVI during the Past 25 Years in Shanxi[J].Ecology and Environment,2008,17(6):2330-2335.[武永利,栾青,赵永强,等.近25年山西植被指数时空变化特征分析[J].生态环境学报,2008,17(6):2330-2335.]
[19] Wang Zhaoli,Huang Zeqin,Li Jun,et al.Assessing Impacts of Meteorological Drought on Vegetation at Catchment Scale in China based on SPEI and NDVI[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2016,32(14):177-186.[王兆礼,黄泽勤,李军,等.基于SPEI和NDVI的中国流域尺度气象干旱及植被分布时空演变[J].农业工程学报,2016,32(14):177-186.]
[20] Jong R D,Verbesselt J,Zeileis A,et al.Shifts in Global Vegetation Activity Trends[J].Remote Sensing,2013,5(3):1117-1133.
[21] Stow D,Daeschner S,Hope A,et al.Variability of the Seasonally Integrated Normalized Difference Vegetation Index Across the North Slope of Alaska in the 1990s[J].International Journal of Remote Sensing,2003,24(5):1111-1117.
[22] Verbesselt J,Zeileis A,Herold M.Near Real-time Disturbance Detection using Satellite Image Time Series[J].Remote Sensing of Environment,2012,123(123):98-108.
[23] Potter C,Tan P N,Steinbach M,et al.Major Disturbance Events in Terrestrial Ecosystems Detected using Global Satellite Data sets[J].Global Change Biology,2010,9(7):1005-1021.
[24] Zeileis A,Leisch F,Hornik K,et al.Strucchange:An R Package for Testing for Structural Change in Linear Regression Models[J].Journal of Statistical Software,2002,7(2):1-38.
[25] Lü Canbin,Tibetan Plateau′s Vegetation Phenology′ Variations and the Analysis its Driving Factors[D].Beijing:China University of Geosciences,2014.[吕灿宾.青藏高原植被覆盖变化的节律及驱动因子分析[D].北京:中国地质大学,2014.]
[26] Yin H,Pflugmacher D,Li A,et al.Land Use and Land Cover Change in Inner Mongolia- Understanding the Effects of China’s Re-vegetation Programs[J].Remote Sensing of Environment,2018,204:918-930.
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