基于设备全寿命周期的配电系统可靠性评估方法
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摘要
配电系统中主变等电气设备的全寿命周期管理对于提高电力系统规划的合理性和经济性具有重要意义。基于设备的全寿命周期理论,提出适用于配电系统的可靠性评估方法;建立配电设备的全寿命周期故障率数学模型,对比分析2种适用于元件时变故障率的系统可靠性评估方法;为便于设备可靠性成本的分析比较,在现值法的基础上建立了可靠性投资/回报分析模型。最后,算例分析验证了设备全寿命周期故障率对配电系统可靠性规划的必要性。
Electrical equipment life-cycle management has great significance to improve the rationality and economy in power system planning.In this paper,a new evaluation method for distribution system reliability evaluation was proposed by considering the equipment life-cycle failure rates(LCFRs).First of all,a model of equipment LCFRs was set up.Then,two simulation methods were compared to give the insight on their accommodation for distribution system reliability evaluation considering time-varying failure rates.Moreover,apresent-value based cost/benefit model was built to compare the investment cost and profit conveniently.Finally,simulation results show that LCFRs have prominent effect on reliability indices.
Electrical equipment life-cycle management has great significance to improve the rationality and economy in power system planning.In this paper,a new evaluation method for distribution system reliability evaluation was proposed by considering the equipment life-cycle failure rates(LCFRs).First of all,a model of equipment LCFRs was set up.Then,two simulation methods were compared to give the insight on their accommodation for distribution system reliability evaluation considering time-varying failure rates.Moreover,apresent-value based cost/benefit model was built to compare the investment cost and profit conveniently.Finally,simulation results show that LCFRs have prominent effect on reliability indices.
引文
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[10]段东立,武小悦,邓宏钟.基于时变故障率与服务恢复时间模型的配电系统可靠性评估[J].中国电机工程学报,2011,31(28):57-64.DUAN Dong-li,WU Xiao-yue,DENG Hong-zhong.Reliability evaluation of distribution systems based on time-varying failure rate and service restoration time model[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2011,31(28):57-64.
[11]Billinton R,Kumar S,Chowdhury N,et al.A reliability test system for educational purposes-basic data[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,1989,4(3):1 238-1 244.
[12]Lewis P A W,Shedler G S.Simulation of non-homogeneous processes by thinning[J].Naval Res.Logist,2006,26(3):403-413.
[13]Benato R,Napolitano D.Overall cost comparison between cable and overhead lines including the costs for repair after random failures[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery,2012,27(3):1 213-1 222.
[14]Rubinstein R Y.Simulation and the Monte Carlo methods[M].New York:Wiley,1981.
[2]李文沅.电力系统风险评估模型、方法和应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2005.
[3]Billinton R,Wang P.Teaching distribution system reliability evaluation using Monte Carlo simulation[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,1999,14(2):397-403.
[4]Billinton R,Wangdee W.Predicting bulk electricity system reliability performance indices using sequential Monte Carlo simulation[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery,2006,25(6):909-917.
[5]Billinton R,Acharya J R.Weather-based distribution system reliability evaluation[J].Iee Proceedings-Generation Transmission and Distribution,2006,153(5):499-506.
[6]Hagkwen K,Singh C.Reliability modeling and simulation in power systems with aging characteristics[J].IEEE Transactions on Power System,2010,25(1):21-28.
[7]Chu C M,Moon J F,Lee H T,et al.Extraction of time-varying failure rates on power distribution system equipment considering failure modes and regional effects[J].International Journal of Electrical Power&Energy Systems,2010,32(6):721-727.
[8]Xie K G,Li W Y.Analytical model for unavailability due to aging failures in power systems[J].International Journal of Electrical Power&Energy Systems,2009,31(7):345-350.
[9]Li W Y.Incorporating aging failures in power system reliability evaluation[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2002,17(3):918-923.
[10]段东立,武小悦,邓宏钟.基于时变故障率与服务恢复时间模型的配电系统可靠性评估[J].中国电机工程学报,2011,31(28):57-64.DUAN Dong-li,WU Xiao-yue,DENG Hong-zhong.Reliability evaluation of distribution systems based on time-varying failure rate and service restoration time model[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2011,31(28):57-64.
[11]Billinton R,Kumar S,Chowdhury N,et al.A reliability test system for educational purposes-basic data[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,1989,4(3):1 238-1 244.
[12]Lewis P A W,Shedler G S.Simulation of non-homogeneous processes by thinning[J].Naval Res.Logist,2006,26(3):403-413.
[13]Benato R,Napolitano D.Overall cost comparison between cable and overhead lines including the costs for repair after random failures[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery,2012,27(3):1 213-1 222.
[14]Rubinstein R Y.Simulation and the Monte Carlo methods[M].New York:Wiley,1981.