考虑载荷状态不确定性的柔性多状态开关可靠性模型
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摘要
为表征柔性多状态开关载荷特性对其可靠性的影响,该文提出一种改进的柔性多状态开关可靠性建模方法。首先考虑配电网源荷不确定性,采用蒙特卡洛模拟和优化潮流方法求解绝缘栅双极型晶体管(insulated gate bipolar transistor,IGBT)模块的电流载荷期望,建立计及随机电流载荷影响的IGBT等效可靠性模型;其次,分析子模块故障率与电压载荷的关系,基于桥臂均压策略,采用数学归纳法建立子模块相继故障下桥臂阀组可靠性动态变化模型;在此基础上修正单端模块化多电平换流器(modularmultilevelconverter,MMC)可靠性模型,并基于马尔可夫方法建立柔性多状态开关八状态可靠性模型。算例计算三端的IGBT、MMC以及整个装置可靠性指标,并与传统模型计算结果对比,验证模型的有效性和实用性。
In order to characterize the effects of loadings on the reliability of flexible multi-state switch, an improved reliability modelling method was proposed. First, in view of the uncertainty of source and load, Monte Carlo simulation and optimal power flow method were combined to solve the current loading expectation of the insulated gate bipolar transistor(IGBT). On this basis, the equivalent reliability model of IGBT was obtained. Then, the relationship between the submodule(SM) failure rate and voltage loading was analyzed. Meanwhile,with the arm voltage balancing strategy considered, the dynamic reliability model of the arm was built under the SMs' successive failure condition, by means of mathematical induction. Thus, the reliability model of single-terminal modular multilevel converter(MMC) was improved. Finally,based on the Markov method, an eight-state reliability model for the flexible multi-state switch was established. By the numerical calculation, the reliability indices of IGBT, MMC converter and the entire device of the three terminals were obtained. In addition, the calculation results were compared with that obtained by traditional model, which validates the effectiveness and practicability of the proposed model.
In order to characterize the effects of loadings on the reliability of flexible multi-state switch, an improved reliability modelling method was proposed. First, in view of the uncertainty of source and load, Monte Carlo simulation and optimal power flow method were combined to solve the current loading expectation of the insulated gate bipolar transistor(IGBT). On this basis, the equivalent reliability model of IGBT was obtained. Then, the relationship between the submodule(SM) failure rate and voltage loading was analyzed. Meanwhile,with the arm voltage balancing strategy considered, the dynamic reliability model of the arm was built under the SMs' successive failure condition, by means of mathematical induction. Thus, the reliability model of single-terminal modular multilevel converter(MMC) was improved. Finally,based on the Markov method, an eight-state reliability model for the flexible multi-state switch was established. By the numerical calculation, the reliability indices of IGBT, MMC converter and the entire device of the three terminals were obtained. In addition, the calculation results were compared with that obtained by traditional model, which validates the effectiveness and practicability of the proposed model.
引文
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[16]罗程,赵成勇,张宝顺,等.MMC控制系统时序逻辑与子模块故障监测[J].电力自动化设备,2015,35(5):83-88.Luo Cheng,Zhao Chengyong,Zhang Baoshun,et al.Sequential logic and sub-module fault detection of MMC control system[J]Electric Power Automation Equipment,2015,35(5):83-88(in Chinese).
[17]和敬涵,李智诚,王小君.柔性直流环节对配电网优化运行作用的概率评估[J].中国电机工程学报,2016,36(2):342-349.He Jinghan,Li Zhicheng,Wang Xiaojun.Probabilistic evaluation on the benefits of flexible DC link for distribution network optimal operation[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2016,36(2):342-349(in Chinese).
[18]Hu Pengfei,Jiang Daozhuo,Zhou Yuebin,et al.Energybalancing control strategy for modular multilevel converters under submodule fault conditions[J].IEEETransactions on Power Electronics,2014,29(9):5021-5030.
[19]Zhao Zhengming,Li Kai,Jiang Ye,et al.Overview on reliability of modular multilevel cascade converters[J].Chinese Journal of Electrical Engineering,2015,1(1):37-49.
[20]Kapur K C,Lamberson L R.Reliability in engineering design[M].New York:John Wiley&Sons,1977.
[21]李文沅.电力系统风险评估:模型、方法和应用[M].周家启,卢继平,胡小正,等译.北京:科学出版社,2006:65-70.Li Wenyuan.Risk assessment of power systems:models,methods,and applications[M].Zhou Jiaqi,Lu Jiping,Hu Xiaozheng,et al,trans.Beijing:Science Press,2006:65-70.
[2]张文亮,汤广福,查鲲鹏,等.先进电力电子技术在智能电网中的应用[J].中国电机工程学报,2010,30(4):1-7.Zhang Wenliang,Tang Guangfu,Zha Kunpeng,et al.Application of advanced power electronics in smart grid[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2010,30(4):1-7(in Chinese).
[3]Bloemink J M,Green T C.Benefits of distribution-level power electronics for supporting distributed generation growth[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery,2013,28(2):911-919.
[4]汤广福.电力系统电力电子及其试验技术[M].北京:中国电力出版社,2015:122-124.
[5]何湘宁,石巍,李武华,等.基于大数据的大容量电力电子系统可靠性研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2017,37(1):209-221.He Xiangning,Shi Wei,Li Wuhua,et al.Reliability enhancement of power electronics systems by big data science[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2017,37(1):209-221(in Chinese).
[6]史清芳,徐习东,赵宇明.电力电子设备对直流配电网可靠性影响[J].电网技术,2016,40(3):725-732.Shi Qingfang,Xu Xidong,Zhao Yuming.Effects of power electronic devices on DC distribution reliability[J].Power System Technology,2016,40(3):725-732(in Chinese).
[7]丁明,王京景,宋倩.基于k/n(G)模型的柔性直流输电系统换流阀可靠性建模与冗余性分析[J].电网技术,2008,32(21):32-36,41.Ding Ming,Wang Jingjing,Song Qian.Reliability modeling and redundancy analysis of converter valves for VSC-HVDC power transmission system based on k-out-of-n:G model[J].Power System Technology,2008,32(21):32-36,41(in Chinese).
[8]Guo Jingli,Wang Xiuli,Bie Zhaohong,et al.Reliability modeling and evaluation of VSC-HVDC transmission systems[C]//Proceedings of 2014 IEEE PES General Meeting|Conference&Exposition.National Harbor,MD,USA:IEEE,2014:1-5.
[9]李生虎,马燕如,董王朝.UPFC扩展状态空间模型和基于矩阵描述的可靠性灵敏度解析算法[J].中国电机工程学报,2015,35(S1):44-51.Li Shenghu,Ma Yanru,Dong Wangchao.Extended state space modeling and analytical reliability sensitivity algorithm based on matrix description for UPFC[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2015,35(S1):44-51(in Chinese).
[10]王朝亮,赵成勇,许建中.模块化多电平换流器的子模块冗余配置计算方法[J].电力系统自动化,2013,37(16):103-107.Wang Chaoliang,Zhao Chengyong,Xu Jianzhong.Amethod for calculating sub-module redundancy configurations in modular multilevel converters[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2013,37(16):103-107(in Chinese).
[11]王秀丽,郭静丽,庞辉,等.模块化多电平换流器的结构可靠性分析[J].中国电机工程学报,2016,36(7):1908-1914.Wang Xiuli,Guo Jingli,Pang Hui,et al.Structural reliability analysis of modular multi-level converters[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2016,36(7):1908-1914(in Chinese).
[12]Wang Biyang,Wang Xifan,Bie Zhaohong,et al.Reliability model of MMC considering periodic preventive maintenance[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery,2017,32(3):1535-1544.
[13]郭焕,温家良,汤广福,等.直流输电换流阀主电路的可靠性分析与优化设计[J].中国电机工程学报,2009,29(S1):39-43.Guo Huan,Wen Jialiang,Tang Guangfu,et al.Reliability analysis and optimal design of main circuit within HVDCthyristor valve[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2009,29(S1):39-43(in Chinese).
[14]吴拥军.电力电子器件在应用中的可靠性研究[D].武汉:华中科技大学,2005.
[15]鲁宗相,刘文华,王仲鸿.基于k/n(G)模型的STATCOM装置可靠性分析[J].中国电机工程学报,2007,27(13):12-17.Lu Zongxiang,Liu Wenhua,Wang Zhonghong.Reliability evaluation of STATCOM based on the k-out-of-n:Gmodel[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2007,27(13):12-17(in Chinese).
[16]罗程,赵成勇,张宝顺,等.MMC控制系统时序逻辑与子模块故障监测[J].电力自动化设备,2015,35(5):83-88.Luo Cheng,Zhao Chengyong,Zhang Baoshun,et al.Sequential logic and sub-module fault detection of MMC control system[J]Electric Power Automation Equipment,2015,35(5):83-88(in Chinese).
[17]和敬涵,李智诚,王小君.柔性直流环节对配电网优化运行作用的概率评估[J].中国电机工程学报,2016,36(2):342-349.He Jinghan,Li Zhicheng,Wang Xiaojun.Probabilistic evaluation on the benefits of flexible DC link for distribution network optimal operation[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2016,36(2):342-349(in Chinese).
[18]Hu Pengfei,Jiang Daozhuo,Zhou Yuebin,et al.Energybalancing control strategy for modular multilevel converters under submodule fault conditions[J].IEEETransactions on Power Electronics,2014,29(9):5021-5030.
[19]Zhao Zhengming,Li Kai,Jiang Ye,et al.Overview on reliability of modular multilevel cascade converters[J].Chinese Journal of Electrical Engineering,2015,1(1):37-49.
[20]Kapur K C,Lamberson L R.Reliability in engineering design[M].New York:John Wiley&Sons,1977.
[21]李文沅.电力系统风险评估:模型、方法和应用[M].周家启,卢继平,胡小正,等译.北京:科学出版社,2006:65-70.Li Wenyuan.Risk assessment of power systems:models,methods,and applications[M].Zhou Jiaqi,Lu Jiping,Hu Xiaozheng,et al,trans.Beijing:Science Press,2006:65-70.