1951—2015年进入东海的台风频数及登陆点的变化
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摘要
利用日本气象厅提供的西北太平洋台风最佳路径观测资料,选取东海海区为研究范围,统计处理1951—2015年台风各要素资料,研究进入东海海区的台风频数、台风登陆点位置、台风频数及登陆点位置与太平洋年代际振荡(Pacific Decadal Oscillation,PDO)及ENSO的关系、影响台风生成和移动的因素等。结果表明:1)每年的7—9月为东海海区的台风高发季,其中8月最高,登陆台风也有相似趋势。2)进入东海海域的台风频数存在较明显的年际和年代际变化趋势。当PDO处于暖位相时,台风频数较小且有上升趋势,反之亦然。El Ni1o年进入东海海区的台风频数较常年减少,反之亦然。Ni1o3.4指数与台风频数整体上为负相关关系,相关系数为-0.32且通过90%置信度检验。3)进入东海海域的台风登陆点纬度变化较大,处于24~36°N之间,且有年代际变化特征。当PDO处于暖(冷)位相时,台风登陆点偏北(偏南)且有向北(南)移动的趋势。而登陆点纬度与ENSO的关系较为复杂。4)西北太平洋副热带高压的位置和强度是引起台风频数及登陆点位置变化的主要原因之一。当PDO处于冷位相时,西北太平洋副热带高压强度偏弱,且副高中心向东向北方向移动,导致进入东海的台风频数偏多,且台风登陆点偏北,反之亦然。
Changes in the frequency of typhoon occurrence and landfall location in the East China Sea are investigated by using the best typhoon track data in Northwest Pacific Ocean from 1951 to 2015.This 65-yr record is provided by Japan Meteorological Agency(JMA).This paper focuses on the East China Sea region,investigating typhoon frequency,landfall position,the relationship between typhoon occurrence(landfall position) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) and El Ni1 o/La Ni1 a and Southern Oscillation(ENSO),and the possible factors affecting typhoon generation and movement. The results indicate that:(1) July-August-September is the season of the highest occurrence for typhoons in the East China Sea,with the highest number of typhoons occurring in August.Typhoons making landfall in this region have similar behavior.(2) The occurrence of typhoons entering the East China Sea has both interannual and interdecadal trends. During the PDO warm(cool) phase,fewer(more) typhoons occur and the occurrence shows an upward(downward) trend. Fewer(more) typhoons enter the East China Sea during El Ni1 o(La Ni1 a) periods. Ni1 o3. 4 index and typhoon frequency showa negative correlation as a whole,with the correlation coefficient of-0. 32 at 90 % confidence level.(3) The latitude of the typhoon landfall point varies greatly,ranging from 24 to 36° N. A certain interdecadal change is also observed. During the PDO warm(cool) phase,the typhoon landfalls are further north(south) and have a tendency to move northward(southward).However,the relationship between typhoon landfall latitude and ENSO is relatively complex and needs further investigation.(4) The primary reason for the change of the typhoon occurrence and landfall may be attributed to the location and strength of the subtropical high in Northwest Pacific. During the PDO cold(warm)phase,the Northwest Pacific subtropical high weakens(strengthens) and the subtropical high moves in an eastward and northward(westward and southward) direction.Under the condition of a strong(weak) tropical convergence zone over Northwest Pacific,this kind of atmospheric circulation contributes to the generation of typhoon,leading to the high(low) frequency of typhoons entering the East China Sea and the further north(south)typhoon landing point.
Changes in the frequency of typhoon occurrence and landfall location in the East China Sea are investigated by using the best typhoon track data in Northwest Pacific Ocean from 1951 to 2015.This 65-yr record is provided by Japan Meteorological Agency(JMA).This paper focuses on the East China Sea region,investigating typhoon frequency,landfall position,the relationship between typhoon occurrence(landfall position) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) and El Ni1 o/La Ni1 a and Southern Oscillation(ENSO),and the possible factors affecting typhoon generation and movement. The results indicate that:(1) July-August-September is the season of the highest occurrence for typhoons in the East China Sea,with the highest number of typhoons occurring in August.Typhoons making landfall in this region have similar behavior.(2) The occurrence of typhoons entering the East China Sea has both interannual and interdecadal trends. During the PDO warm(cool) phase,fewer(more) typhoons occur and the occurrence shows an upward(downward) trend. Fewer(more) typhoons enter the East China Sea during El Ni1 o(La Ni1 a) periods. Ni1 o3. 4 index and typhoon frequency showa negative correlation as a whole,with the correlation coefficient of-0. 32 at 90 % confidence level.(3) The latitude of the typhoon landfall point varies greatly,ranging from 24 to 36° N. A certain interdecadal change is also observed. During the PDO warm(cool) phase,the typhoon landfalls are further north(south) and have a tendency to move northward(southward).However,the relationship between typhoon landfall latitude and ENSO is relatively complex and needs further investigation.(4) The primary reason for the change of the typhoon occurrence and landfall may be attributed to the location and strength of the subtropical high in Northwest Pacific. During the PDO cold(warm)phase,the Northwest Pacific subtropical high weakens(strengthens) and the subtropical high moves in an eastward and northward(westward and southward) direction.Under the condition of a strong(weak) tropical convergence zone over Northwest Pacific,this kind of atmospheric circulation contributes to the generation of typhoon,leading to the high(low) frequency of typhoons entering the East China Sea and the further north(south)typhoon landing point.
引文
Chan J,Shi J E,1996.Long-term trends and inter annual variability in tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific[J].Geophys Res Lett,23(8):2765-2767.
Chan J,Liu K S,2004.Global warming and western North Pacific typhoon activity from an observational perspective[J].J Climate,17(12):4590-4602.
陈联寿,孟智勇,2001.我国热带气旋研究十年进展[J].大气科学,25(3):420-432.Chen L,Meng Z,2001.An overviewon tropical cyclone research progress in China during the past tenyears[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,25(3):420-432.(in Chinese).
陈瑞闪,2002.台风[M].福州:福建科学技术出版社.Chen R S,2002.Typhoon[M].Fuzhou:Fujian Science&Technology Publishing House.(in Chinese).
陈玉林,周军,马奋华,2005.登陆我国台风研究概述[J].气象科学,25(3):319-329.Chen Y,Zhou J,Ma F,2005.Recent progress of study on China landfalling typhoons[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,25(3):319-329.(in Chinese).
冯琳,2008.热带太平洋年代际变化及其形成机制探讨[D].青岛:中国海洋大学.Feng L,2008.The effect of regional ocean-atmosphere coupling on the long-term variability in the Pacific Ocean[D].Qingdao:Ocean University of China.(in Chinese).
Gray W M,1968.Global Viewof the Origin of Tropical Disturbances and Storms[J].Mon Wea Rev,96(10):87.
Gray W M,1979.Hurricanes:their formation,structure and likely role in the tropical circulation[J].Poultry Science,52(1):155-199.
何敏,宋文玲,陈兴芳,1999.厄尔尼诺和反厄尔尼诺事件与西北太平洋台风活动[J].热带气象学报,15(1):17-25.He M,Song W L,Chen XF,1999.Typhoon activity in Northwest Pacific in relation with El Ni1o and La Ni1a events[J].J Trop Meteor,15(1):17-25.(in Chinese).
何鹏程,2010.PDO对西北太平洋热带气旋活动与大尺度环流关系的影响[D].南京:南京大学.He P,2010.Effect of PDO on the relationships between large scale circulation and tropical cyclone activity over the western north Pacific[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University.(in Chinese).
黄荣辉,陈光华,2007.西北太平洋热带气旋移动路径的年际变化及其机理研究[J].气象学报,65(5):683-694.Huang R,Chen G H,2007.Research on interannual variations of tracks of tropical cyclones over northwest Pacific and their physical mechanism[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,65(5):683-694.(in Chinese).
黄勇,李崇银,王颖,等,2008.近百年西北太平洋热带气旋频数变化特征与ENSO的关系[J].海洋预报,25(1):80-87.Huang Y,Li C Y,Wang Y,et al.,2008.Study on the variation characteristics of annual frequency for tropical cyclones in western North Pacific during the last hundred years and relationship with ENSO[J].Marine Forecasts,25(1):80-87.(in Chinese).
靳甜甜,2014.西北太平洋强台风频数与ENSO年际联系的年代际变化机理研究[D].南京:南京信息工程大学.Jin T,2014.Study of mechanisms for the interdecadal variation of the relationship between the frequency of Northwest Pacific intense TC and ENSO[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University of Science&Information Technology.(in Chinese).
李肖雅,吴立广,宗慧君,2014.季风涡旋影响西北太平洋台风生成初步分析[J].大气科学学报,37(5):653-664.Li X,Wu L G,Zong H J,2014.Analysis of influence of monsoon gyres on tropical cyclogenesis over the western North Pacific[J].Trans Atmos Sci,37(5):653-664.(in Chinese).
卢楚翰,管兆勇,李永华,等,2013.太平洋年代际振荡与南北半球际大气质量振荡及东亚季风的联系[J].地球物理学报,56(2):117-128.Lu CH,Guan Z Y,Li Y H,et al.,2013.Interdecadal linkages between the Pacific decadal oscillation and interhemispheric air mass oscillation and their possible connections with East Asian monsoon[J].Chin J Geophys,56(2):117-128.(in Chinese).
Mantua N J,Hare S R,2002.The Pacific decadal oscillation[J].Journal of Oceanography,58(1):35-44.
Mantua N J,Hare S R,Zhang Y,et al.,1997.A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production[J].Bull Amer Meteor Soc,78(6):1069-1079.
钱伊恬,徐邦琪,2016.2015年西北太平洋台风季提早展开:2015/2016超级厄尔尼诺的影响[J].大气科学学报,39(6):788-800.Qian Y T,Hsu P C,2016.Early onset of the typhoon season over the western North Pacific in 2015:influence of the 2015/2016 super El Ni1o event[J].Trans Atmos Sci,39(6):788-800.(in Chinese).
孙秀荣,端义宏,2003.对东亚夏季风与西北太平洋热带气旋频数关系的初步分析[J].大气科学,7(1):67-74.Sun X R,Duan Y H,2003.Astudy of the relationships between the east Asia summer monsoon and the tropical cyclone frequency in the northwestern Pacific[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,27(1):67-74.(in Chinese).
王一新,苑希民,杨敏,2013.1949年以来登陆我国台风的主要特征分析[J].水利水电技术,44(6):135-138.Wang Y X,Yuan X M,Yang M,2013.Analysis on main characteristics of typhoons landed in china since 1949[J].Water Resources&Hydropower Engineering,44(6):135-138.(in Chinese).
王咏梅,李维京,任福民,等,2007.影响中国台风的气候特征及其与环境场关系的研究[J].热带气象学报,23(6):538-544.Wang Y,Li W,Ren F,et al.,2007.Study on climatic characteristics of China-influencing typhoons and the interrelations between them and their environmental factors[J].J Trop Meteor,23(6):538-544.(in Chinese).
吴海英,曾明剑,王卫芳,等,2015.1211号“海葵”台风登陆后引发两段大暴雨过程的对比分析[J].大气科学学报,38(5):670-677.Wu H Y,Zeng MJ,Wang W F,et al.,2015.Comparative analysis on two rainstorm processes caused by typhoon Haikui(1211)after landfall[J].Trans Atmos Sci,38(5):670-677.(in Chinese).
许娈,崔晓鹏,高守亭,等,2015.台风“鲇鱼”(1013)路径突变过程的成因分析[J].大气科学学报,38(5):658-669.Xu L,Cui X P,Gao S T,et al.,2015.Cause analysis of sudden track change of Typhoon Megi(1013)[J].Trans Atmos Sci,38(5):658-669.(in Chinese).
杨修群,朱益民,谢倩,等,2004.太平洋年代际振荡的研究进展[J].大气科学,28(6):979-992.Yang X Q,Zhu Y M,Xie Q,et al.,2004.Advances in studies of Pacific decadal oscillation[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,28(6):979-992.(in Chinese).
张翰,管玉平,2012.南海夏季风与登陆我国大陆初旋的关系[J].物理学报,61(12):129201-1-6.Zhang H,Guan Y P,2012.Relationship between the South China Sea summer monsoon and the first-landfall tropical cyclone over mainland of China[J].Acta Physica Sinica,61(12):129201-1-6.(in Chinese).
周嘉陵,2002.台风登陆和强度变化若干问题的研究[D].南京:南京气象学院.Zhou J L,2002.Studies on the problems about typhoon landfall and variation of typhoon intensity[D].Nanjing:Nanjing Institute of Meteorology.(in Chinese).
周学鸣,魏应植,吴陈锋,2006.夏季西太平洋台风频数异常与ENSO事件的关系及大气环流异常特征[J].热带气象学报,22(1):34-40.Zhou X M,Wei Y Z,Wu C F,2006.Relationship between summer Typhoon frequency anomalies in west Pacific and ENSO events,and the anomalous atmospheric circulation characteristics[J].J Trop Meteor,22(1):34-40.(in Chinese).
周伟灿,沈海波,赵海坤,2015.热带季节内振荡对西北太平洋台风生成的大尺度环境的影响[J].大气科学学报,38(6):731-741.Zhou W C,Shen H B,Zhao H K,2015.Effect of tropical intraseasonal oscillation on large-scale enviornment of typhoon genesis over the northwestern Pacific[J].Trans Atmos Sci,38(6):731-741.(in Chinese).
Chan J,Liu K S,2004.Global warming and western North Pacific typhoon activity from an observational perspective[J].J Climate,17(12):4590-4602.
陈联寿,孟智勇,2001.我国热带气旋研究十年进展[J].大气科学,25(3):420-432.Chen L,Meng Z,2001.An overviewon tropical cyclone research progress in China during the past tenyears[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,25(3):420-432.(in Chinese).
陈瑞闪,2002.台风[M].福州:福建科学技术出版社.Chen R S,2002.Typhoon[M].Fuzhou:Fujian Science&Technology Publishing House.(in Chinese).
陈玉林,周军,马奋华,2005.登陆我国台风研究概述[J].气象科学,25(3):319-329.Chen Y,Zhou J,Ma F,2005.Recent progress of study on China landfalling typhoons[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,25(3):319-329.(in Chinese).
冯琳,2008.热带太平洋年代际变化及其形成机制探讨[D].青岛:中国海洋大学.Feng L,2008.The effect of regional ocean-atmosphere coupling on the long-term variability in the Pacific Ocean[D].Qingdao:Ocean University of China.(in Chinese).
Gray W M,1968.Global Viewof the Origin of Tropical Disturbances and Storms[J].Mon Wea Rev,96(10):87.
Gray W M,1979.Hurricanes:their formation,structure and likely role in the tropical circulation[J].Poultry Science,52(1):155-199.
何敏,宋文玲,陈兴芳,1999.厄尔尼诺和反厄尔尼诺事件与西北太平洋台风活动[J].热带气象学报,15(1):17-25.He M,Song W L,Chen XF,1999.Typhoon activity in Northwest Pacific in relation with El Ni1o and La Ni1a events[J].J Trop Meteor,15(1):17-25.(in Chinese).
何鹏程,2010.PDO对西北太平洋热带气旋活动与大尺度环流关系的影响[D].南京:南京大学.He P,2010.Effect of PDO on the relationships between large scale circulation and tropical cyclone activity over the western north Pacific[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University.(in Chinese).
黄荣辉,陈光华,2007.西北太平洋热带气旋移动路径的年际变化及其机理研究[J].气象学报,65(5):683-694.Huang R,Chen G H,2007.Research on interannual variations of tracks of tropical cyclones over northwest Pacific and their physical mechanism[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,65(5):683-694.(in Chinese).
黄勇,李崇银,王颖,等,2008.近百年西北太平洋热带气旋频数变化特征与ENSO的关系[J].海洋预报,25(1):80-87.Huang Y,Li C Y,Wang Y,et al.,2008.Study on the variation characteristics of annual frequency for tropical cyclones in western North Pacific during the last hundred years and relationship with ENSO[J].Marine Forecasts,25(1):80-87.(in Chinese).
靳甜甜,2014.西北太平洋强台风频数与ENSO年际联系的年代际变化机理研究[D].南京:南京信息工程大学.Jin T,2014.Study of mechanisms for the interdecadal variation of the relationship between the frequency of Northwest Pacific intense TC and ENSO[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University of Science&Information Technology.(in Chinese).
李肖雅,吴立广,宗慧君,2014.季风涡旋影响西北太平洋台风生成初步分析[J].大气科学学报,37(5):653-664.Li X,Wu L G,Zong H J,2014.Analysis of influence of monsoon gyres on tropical cyclogenesis over the western North Pacific[J].Trans Atmos Sci,37(5):653-664.(in Chinese).
卢楚翰,管兆勇,李永华,等,2013.太平洋年代际振荡与南北半球际大气质量振荡及东亚季风的联系[J].地球物理学报,56(2):117-128.Lu CH,Guan Z Y,Li Y H,et al.,2013.Interdecadal linkages between the Pacific decadal oscillation and interhemispheric air mass oscillation and their possible connections with East Asian monsoon[J].Chin J Geophys,56(2):117-128.(in Chinese).
Mantua N J,Hare S R,2002.The Pacific decadal oscillation[J].Journal of Oceanography,58(1):35-44.
Mantua N J,Hare S R,Zhang Y,et al.,1997.A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production[J].Bull Amer Meteor Soc,78(6):1069-1079.
钱伊恬,徐邦琪,2016.2015年西北太平洋台风季提早展开:2015/2016超级厄尔尼诺的影响[J].大气科学学报,39(6):788-800.Qian Y T,Hsu P C,2016.Early onset of the typhoon season over the western North Pacific in 2015:influence of the 2015/2016 super El Ni1o event[J].Trans Atmos Sci,39(6):788-800.(in Chinese).
孙秀荣,端义宏,2003.对东亚夏季风与西北太平洋热带气旋频数关系的初步分析[J].大气科学,7(1):67-74.Sun X R,Duan Y H,2003.Astudy of the relationships between the east Asia summer monsoon and the tropical cyclone frequency in the northwestern Pacific[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,27(1):67-74.(in Chinese).
王一新,苑希民,杨敏,2013.1949年以来登陆我国台风的主要特征分析[J].水利水电技术,44(6):135-138.Wang Y X,Yuan X M,Yang M,2013.Analysis on main characteristics of typhoons landed in china since 1949[J].Water Resources&Hydropower Engineering,44(6):135-138.(in Chinese).
王咏梅,李维京,任福民,等,2007.影响中国台风的气候特征及其与环境场关系的研究[J].热带气象学报,23(6):538-544.Wang Y,Li W,Ren F,et al.,2007.Study on climatic characteristics of China-influencing typhoons and the interrelations between them and their environmental factors[J].J Trop Meteor,23(6):538-544.(in Chinese).
吴海英,曾明剑,王卫芳,等,2015.1211号“海葵”台风登陆后引发两段大暴雨过程的对比分析[J].大气科学学报,38(5):670-677.Wu H Y,Zeng MJ,Wang W F,et al.,2015.Comparative analysis on two rainstorm processes caused by typhoon Haikui(1211)after landfall[J].Trans Atmos Sci,38(5):670-677.(in Chinese).
许娈,崔晓鹏,高守亭,等,2015.台风“鲇鱼”(1013)路径突变过程的成因分析[J].大气科学学报,38(5):658-669.Xu L,Cui X P,Gao S T,et al.,2015.Cause analysis of sudden track change of Typhoon Megi(1013)[J].Trans Atmos Sci,38(5):658-669.(in Chinese).
杨修群,朱益民,谢倩,等,2004.太平洋年代际振荡的研究进展[J].大气科学,28(6):979-992.Yang X Q,Zhu Y M,Xie Q,et al.,2004.Advances in studies of Pacific decadal oscillation[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,28(6):979-992.(in Chinese).
张翰,管玉平,2012.南海夏季风与登陆我国大陆初旋的关系[J].物理学报,61(12):129201-1-6.Zhang H,Guan Y P,2012.Relationship between the South China Sea summer monsoon and the first-landfall tropical cyclone over mainland of China[J].Acta Physica Sinica,61(12):129201-1-6.(in Chinese).
周嘉陵,2002.台风登陆和强度变化若干问题的研究[D].南京:南京气象学院.Zhou J L,2002.Studies on the problems about typhoon landfall and variation of typhoon intensity[D].Nanjing:Nanjing Institute of Meteorology.(in Chinese).
周学鸣,魏应植,吴陈锋,2006.夏季西太平洋台风频数异常与ENSO事件的关系及大气环流异常特征[J].热带气象学报,22(1):34-40.Zhou X M,Wei Y Z,Wu C F,2006.Relationship between summer Typhoon frequency anomalies in west Pacific and ENSO events,and the anomalous atmospheric circulation characteristics[J].J Trop Meteor,22(1):34-40.(in Chinese).
周伟灿,沈海波,赵海坤,2015.热带季节内振荡对西北太平洋台风生成的大尺度环境的影响[J].大气科学学报,38(6):731-741.Zhou W C,Shen H B,Zhao H K,2015.Effect of tropical intraseasonal oscillation on large-scale enviornment of typhoon genesis over the northwestern Pacific[J].Trans Atmos Sci,38(6):731-741.(in Chinese).
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