气候变化对我国特有濒危物种水杉野生种群分布的影响
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摘要
孑遗植物水杉(Metasequoia glyptostroboides)为我国特有裸子植物,国家一级保护植物。水杉野生种群仅在湖南、湖北和重庆交界之处分布。目前,虽然水杉在全球广泛栽培,但栽培水杉不能自然更新,而野生种群也存在自然更新不良、种群衰退现象。在未来气候变化条件下,水杉种群可能面临更加严峻的灭绝风险。因此,本研究根据文献和标本记载的水杉野生分布记录评估了未来气候变化对野生水杉分布的影响。采用多种物种分布模型,估计了当前气候条件下野生水杉的潜在分布分区,同时采用3种大气环流模型(CCSM4、CNRM-CM5、HadGEM2-ES)模拟的气候数据,估计了两种典型温室气体浓度增加情景下未来(2070年)野生水杉的适宜分布区。结果表明,当前气候条件下,水杉野生种群的潜在分布区与实际分布区一致,集中在湖北、重庆、湖南和贵州的交界处。到2070年,在不同的温室气体浓度增加情景下,我国水杉的潜在分布区有向现分布区的西北部迁移的倾向,但生境适宜度非常低(<0.5),成功迁移可能性极低。而现有野生分布区的适宜度也明显下降,潜在分布区消失殆尽,水杉原始种群保护工作可能面临严峻考验。
The relict gymnosperm species,Metasequoia glyptostroboides Hu & Cheng( dawn redwoods),is a well-known example of living fossil. It is an endangered,endemic and a national key protected species of China. Its wild populations survive only in the border region of Hunan,Hubei provinces and the Chongqing municipality in south-central China. Although it has been widely cultivated worldwide,the cultivated populations are incapable of regenerating naturally.The wild populations are facing rapid population decline due to reduced natural regeneration.Therefore,the human-induced climate change is likely to increase the extinction risk of M. glyptostroboides. To explore the effects of climate change on M. glyptostroboides,we established the species distribution models using its wild distribution records and current climatic data. Using these models,we predicted its future distributions based on the climate data simulated by three global circulation models( CCSM4,CNRM-CM5 and HadGEM2-ES). Our results show that the current potential suitable habitats for M. glyptostroboides are mainly the adjacent areas of Hubei,Chongqing,Hunan and Guizhou,which is consistent with its actual distribution area. The wild population of M. glyptostroboides will shift northwest to the present distribution area in the future( 2070 s) under both RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios,but with lower habitat suitability( <0.5).Our findings suggest a dramatic decline in the suitable habitats of M. glyptostroboides and this may likely wipe out its wild populations entirely in the near future. Our results suggest that climate change may threaten the wild populations of M. glyptostroboides.
The relict gymnosperm species,Metasequoia glyptostroboides Hu & Cheng( dawn redwoods),is a well-known example of living fossil. It is an endangered,endemic and a national key protected species of China. Its wild populations survive only in the border region of Hunan,Hubei provinces and the Chongqing municipality in south-central China. Although it has been widely cultivated worldwide,the cultivated populations are incapable of regenerating naturally.The wild populations are facing rapid population decline due to reduced natural regeneration.Therefore,the human-induced climate change is likely to increase the extinction risk of M. glyptostroboides. To explore the effects of climate change on M. glyptostroboides,we established the species distribution models using its wild distribution records and current climatic data. Using these models,we predicted its future distributions based on the climate data simulated by three global circulation models( CCSM4,CNRM-CM5 and HadGEM2-ES). Our results show that the current potential suitable habitats for M. glyptostroboides are mainly the adjacent areas of Hubei,Chongqing,Hunan and Guizhou,which is consistent with its actual distribution area. The wild population of M. glyptostroboides will shift northwest to the present distribution area in the future( 2070 s) under both RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios,but with lower habitat suitability( <0.5).Our findings suggest a dramatic decline in the suitable habitats of M. glyptostroboides and this may likely wipe out its wild populations entirely in the near future. Our results suggest that climate change may threaten the wild populations of M. glyptostroboides.
引文
郭彦龙,卫海燕,路春燕,等.2014.气候变化下桃儿七潜在地理分布的预测.植物生态学报,38(3):249-261.
李晓东,杨佳,史全芬,等.2005.8个栽培水杉居群遗传多样性的等位酶分析.生物多样性,13(2):97-104.
李媛媛.2006.水杉的系统发育地位及恢复评价(博士学位论文).上海:华东师范大学.
李作洲,龚俊杰,王瑛,等.2003.水杉孑遗居群AFLP遗传变异的空间分布.生物多样性,11(4):265-275.
林勇,艾训儒,姚兰,等.2017.水杉原生母树种群结构与动态.生态学杂志,36(6):1531-1538.
罗玫,王昊,吕植.2017.使用大熊猫数据评估Biomod2和MaxEnt分布预测模型的表现.应用生态学报,28(12):4001-4006.
马金双.2008.世界栽培水杉的调查(1947-2007年).植物科学学报,26(2):186-196.
王柏泉,艾训儒,彭诚,等.2003.水杉原生群落病虫害及其防治.植物保护,29(2):42-43.
王思思.2017.水杉野生种群遗传多样性的时空格局及种质资源保护(硕士学位论文).上海:华东师范大学.
王希群,马履一,郭保香,等.2004.水杉的保护历程和存在的问题.生物多样性,12(3):377-385.
王希群,马履一,郭保香,等.2005.湖北利川水杉原生种群及其生境1948-2003年间变化分析.生态学报,25(5):972-977.
王希群.2009.重庆石柱水杉原生种质资源的发现与保护.重庆林业科技,(3):44-48.
张卜阳,张丰云.1980.水杉开花结实发育过程的初步研究.湖北林业科技,(4):6-10.
赵泽芳,卫海燕,郭彦龙,等.2016.人参潜在地理分布以及气候变化对其影响预测.应用生态学报,27(11):3607-3615.
中国科学院中国植物志编辑委员会.1978.中国植物志.北京:科学出版社.
Araújo MB,Ferri-Yánez F,Bozinovic F,et al.2013.Heat freezes niche evolution.Ecology Letters,16:1206-1219.
Barbet-Massin M,Jiguet F,Albert CH,et al.2012.Selecting pseudo-absences for species distribution models:How,where and how many?Methods in Ecology and Evolution,3:327-338.
Barnosky AD,Matzke N,Tomiya S,et al.2011.Has the Earth’s sixth mass extinction already arrived?Nature,471:51-57.
Gallardo B,Aldridge DC,González-Moreno P,et al.2017.Protected areas offer refuge from invasive species spreading under climate change.Global Change Biology,23:5331-5343.
Hijmans RJ,Cameron SE,Parra JL,et al.2005.Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas.International Journal of Climatology,25:1965-1978.
IUCN.2018.The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species.Version2018-6[EB/OL].[2018-6-20]http://www.iucnredlist.org.
Jiménez-Valverde A,Lobo JM.2007.Threshold criteria for conversion of probability of species presence to either-or presence-absence.Acta Oecologica,31:361-369.
O’brien RM.2007.A caution regarding rules of thumb for variance inflation factors.Quality&Quantity,41:673-690.
Prentice IC,Cramer W,Harrison SP,et al.1992.Special paper:A global biome model based on plant physiology and dominance,soil properties and climate.Journal of Biogeography,19:117-134.
Qiao H,Soberón J,Peterson TA.2015.No silver bullets in correlative ecological niche modelling:Insights from testing among many potential algorithms for niche estimation.Methods in Ecology and Evolution,6:1126-1136.
Solomon S,Qin D,Manning M,et al.2007.IPCC.Climate Change 2007:The Physical Science Basis.Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.
Tang CQ,Dong YF,Herrando-Moraira S,et al.2017.Potential effects of climate change on geographic distribution of the Tertiary relict tree species Davidia involucrata in China.Scientific Reports,7:43822.
Thomas CD,Cameron A,Green RE,et al.2004.Extinction risk from climate change.Nature,427:145-148.
Thuiller W,Lafourcade B,Engler R,et al.2009.BIOMOD:Aplatform for ensemble forecasting of species distributions.Ecography,32:369-373.
Wang S,Xu X,Shrestha N,et al.2017.Response of spatial vegetation distribution in China to climate changes since the last glacial maximum(lgm).PLo S ONE,12:e0175742.
Zhang L,Luo Z,Mallon D,et al.2016.Biodiversity conservation status in China’s growing protected areas.Biological Conservation,210:89-100.
李晓东,杨佳,史全芬,等.2005.8个栽培水杉居群遗传多样性的等位酶分析.生物多样性,13(2):97-104.
李媛媛.2006.水杉的系统发育地位及恢复评价(博士学位论文).上海:华东师范大学.
李作洲,龚俊杰,王瑛,等.2003.水杉孑遗居群AFLP遗传变异的空间分布.生物多样性,11(4):265-275.
林勇,艾训儒,姚兰,等.2017.水杉原生母树种群结构与动态.生态学杂志,36(6):1531-1538.
罗玫,王昊,吕植.2017.使用大熊猫数据评估Biomod2和MaxEnt分布预测模型的表现.应用生态学报,28(12):4001-4006.
马金双.2008.世界栽培水杉的调查(1947-2007年).植物科学学报,26(2):186-196.
王柏泉,艾训儒,彭诚,等.2003.水杉原生群落病虫害及其防治.植物保护,29(2):42-43.
王思思.2017.水杉野生种群遗传多样性的时空格局及种质资源保护(硕士学位论文).上海:华东师范大学.
王希群,马履一,郭保香,等.2004.水杉的保护历程和存在的问题.生物多样性,12(3):377-385.
王希群,马履一,郭保香,等.2005.湖北利川水杉原生种群及其生境1948-2003年间变化分析.生态学报,25(5):972-977.
王希群.2009.重庆石柱水杉原生种质资源的发现与保护.重庆林业科技,(3):44-48.
张卜阳,张丰云.1980.水杉开花结实发育过程的初步研究.湖北林业科技,(4):6-10.
赵泽芳,卫海燕,郭彦龙,等.2016.人参潜在地理分布以及气候变化对其影响预测.应用生态学报,27(11):3607-3615.
中国科学院中国植物志编辑委员会.1978.中国植物志.北京:科学出版社.
Araújo MB,Ferri-Yánez F,Bozinovic F,et al.2013.Heat freezes niche evolution.Ecology Letters,16:1206-1219.
Barbet-Massin M,Jiguet F,Albert CH,et al.2012.Selecting pseudo-absences for species distribution models:How,where and how many?Methods in Ecology and Evolution,3:327-338.
Barnosky AD,Matzke N,Tomiya S,et al.2011.Has the Earth’s sixth mass extinction already arrived?Nature,471:51-57.
Gallardo B,Aldridge DC,González-Moreno P,et al.2017.Protected areas offer refuge from invasive species spreading under climate change.Global Change Biology,23:5331-5343.
Hijmans RJ,Cameron SE,Parra JL,et al.2005.Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas.International Journal of Climatology,25:1965-1978.
IUCN.2018.The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species.Version2018-6[EB/OL].[2018-6-20]http://www.iucnredlist.org.
Jiménez-Valverde A,Lobo JM.2007.Threshold criteria for conversion of probability of species presence to either-or presence-absence.Acta Oecologica,31:361-369.
O’brien RM.2007.A caution regarding rules of thumb for variance inflation factors.Quality&Quantity,41:673-690.
Prentice IC,Cramer W,Harrison SP,et al.1992.Special paper:A global biome model based on plant physiology and dominance,soil properties and climate.Journal of Biogeography,19:117-134.
Qiao H,Soberón J,Peterson TA.2015.No silver bullets in correlative ecological niche modelling:Insights from testing among many potential algorithms for niche estimation.Methods in Ecology and Evolution,6:1126-1136.
Solomon S,Qin D,Manning M,et al.2007.IPCC.Climate Change 2007:The Physical Science Basis.Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.
Tang CQ,Dong YF,Herrando-Moraira S,et al.2017.Potential effects of climate change on geographic distribution of the Tertiary relict tree species Davidia involucrata in China.Scientific Reports,7:43822.
Thomas CD,Cameron A,Green RE,et al.2004.Extinction risk from climate change.Nature,427:145-148.
Thuiller W,Lafourcade B,Engler R,et al.2009.BIOMOD:Aplatform for ensemble forecasting of species distributions.Ecography,32:369-373.
Wang S,Xu X,Shrestha N,et al.2017.Response of spatial vegetation distribution in China to climate changes since the last glacial maximum(lgm).PLo S ONE,12:e0175742.
Zhang L,Luo Z,Mallon D,et al.2016.Biodiversity conservation status in China’s growing protected areas.Biological Conservation,210:89-100.
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