门限自回归模型预测软土地基沉降
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摘要
以某在建港区软土地基处理工程为例,基于现场监测原始数据,采用时间序列分析方法建立软土地基沉降预测的门限自回归模型,运用最小信息准则(AIC)进行模型参数估计。结果表明,所建立的预测模型其一步预测值精度较高,并可以实现计算机在线建模,对工程进行实时监控,适合该在建港区软土地基处理工程的固结沉降预测。
Taking the soft soil foundation treatment of a constructing port area for example and on the basis of the original data monitored from the site,a nonlinear time series analysis method is used to establish the threshold-regressive model for the forecasting of the consolidation settlement of soft clay ground,and the AIC criterion is used to determine the model parameters.The results show that the model’s one-step forecasting value is more accurate,and it is possible to actualize the on-line modeling with computer so as to monitor the project synchronously.The model in this paper is suitable for forecasting the consolidation settlement of the soft soil foundation treatment in the constructing port area.
Taking the soft soil foundation treatment of a constructing port area for example and on the basis of the original data monitored from the site,a nonlinear time series analysis method is used to establish the threshold-regressive model for the forecasting of the consolidation settlement of soft clay ground,and the AIC criterion is used to determine the model parameters.The results show that the model’s one-step forecasting value is more accurate,and it is possible to actualize the on-line modeling with computer so as to monitor the project synchronously.The model in this paper is suitable for forecasting the consolidation settlement of the soft soil foundation treatment in the constructing port area.
引文
[1]赵明华.土力学与基础工程[M].武汉:武汉工业大学出版社,2002.
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[6]苗雨,谭显坤,杨慧琳,等.基于灰色模型的软土路基沉降预测及误差分析[J].地下空间与工程学报,2006,2(6):1049－1052.
[7]简文彬,姚环,陈祺模.福州大腹山隧洞围岩位移的非线性时序分析[J].福州大学学报(自然科学版),2000,28(4):113－155.
[8]何鲜峰,郑东健,谷艳昌.大坝安全监控的门限回归预测模型及其应用[J].长江科学院院报,2007,24(3):20－22.
[9]吴晓明,吴大文.自激励门限自回归模型研究与应用[J].沈阳航空工业学院学报,2001,18(4):41－42.
[10]蔺保云.福建某在建港区软土地基沉降的非线性时序分析[J].岩土工程界,2008,(6):33－35.
[2]Asaoka A.Observational procedure of settlement prediction[J].Soils and Foundations,2000,18(4):87－101.
[3]交通部第一公路勘察设计院.JTJ017-96.公路软土地基路堤设计与施工技术规范[S].北京:人民交通出版社,1997.
[4]赵明华,郑焕然,刘煜.滨海软土路基最终沉降量预测研究[J].广西交通科技,2003,28(5):13－15,19.
[5]宰金珉,杨国雄.成长曲线在地基沉降预测中的应用[J].南京建筑工程学院学报,2000,(2):8－13.
[6]苗雨,谭显坤,杨慧琳,等.基于灰色模型的软土路基沉降预测及误差分析[J].地下空间与工程学报,2006,2(6):1049－1052.
[7]简文彬,姚环,陈祺模.福州大腹山隧洞围岩位移的非线性时序分析[J].福州大学学报(自然科学版),2000,28(4):113－155.
[8]何鲜峰,郑东健,谷艳昌.大坝安全监控的门限回归预测模型及其应用[J].长江科学院院报,2007,24(3):20－22.
[9]吴晓明,吴大文.自激励门限自回归模型研究与应用[J].沈阳航空工业学院学报,2001,18(4):41－42.
[10]蔺保云.福建某在建港区软土地基沉降的非线性时序分析[J].岩土工程界,2008,(6):33－35.