中美英德法出境旅游国际影响力比较——基于经济视角的时空分析
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摘要
2000年以来,中国出境旅游的快速崛起,产生了巨大的国际影响力。在构建出境旅游国际影响力概念模型的基础上,以中国、美国、英国、德国和法国为研究对象,采用2005—2016年国际统计数据,从出游规模、增长潜力、影响范围3个维度,选取市场占比、增长贡献度、目的地多样性和平均出游半径等指标,研究了5国出境旅游国际影响力的此消彼长和空间差异。结果发现:随着经济的持续快速增长,中国出境游市场占比及增长贡献度先后超越法、英、德、美,对世界及目的地国家的旅游产生了很大影响。中国人均可支配收入低,在目的地多样性、平均出游半径等方面与美英有较大差距。受经济实力、距离衰减、文化认同和经贸联系的影响,美英出境旅游影响范围最大;中国出境旅游影响力主要集中于亚太,对欧洲和北美影响较大;而德法主要局限于欧洲。为此,中国应大力发展出境旅游,增加服务贸易进口,平衡国际贸易,并运用出境旅游的国际影响力,创造有利的国际环境,维护国家利益。
Since 2000, the rapid rise of China's outbound tourism has produced huge international influence. Based on a conceptual model of outbound tourism's international influence, this study used 2005-2016 international statistical data and took China, the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and France as the research object to compare the changes and spatial differences of outbound tourism influence between the five countries. We examined the three dimensions of outbound tourism scale, growth potential, and influence scope, with market share,growth contribution, destination diversity, and average travel radius as indicators. The results show that: With the sustained high growth of the economy, China's outbound tourism market share and growth contribution have surpassed France, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the United States,which has had a great impact on world and destination tourism. However, due to the low per capita disposable income, China's outbound tourism was far behind the United States and the United Kingdom in destination diversity and average travel radius. Influenced by economic strength,distance attenuation, cultural identity, and economic and trade ties, the United States and the United Kingdom outbound tourism had the greatest influence; the influence of China's outbound tourism was mainly concentrated in the Asia-Pacific region, and it also had a greater impact on Europe and North America compared to the rest of the world. Outbound tourism of Germany and France was mainly limited to Europe. China should vigorously develop outbound tourism, increase the import of service trade, balance international trade, reduce trade friction, and use the international influence of outbound tourism to create a favorable international environment and safeguard national interests.
Since 2000, the rapid rise of China's outbound tourism has produced huge international influence. Based on a conceptual model of outbound tourism's international influence, this study used 2005-2016 international statistical data and took China, the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and France as the research object to compare the changes and spatial differences of outbound tourism influence between the five countries. We examined the three dimensions of outbound tourism scale, growth potential, and influence scope, with market share,growth contribution, destination diversity, and average travel radius as indicators. The results show that: With the sustained high growth of the economy, China's outbound tourism market share and growth contribution have surpassed France, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the United States,which has had a great impact on world and destination tourism. However, due to the low per capita disposable income, China's outbound tourism was far behind the United States and the United Kingdom in destination diversity and average travel radius. Influenced by economic strength,distance attenuation, cultural identity, and economic and trade ties, the United States and the United Kingdom outbound tourism had the greatest influence; the influence of China's outbound tourism was mainly concentrated in the Asia-Pacific region, and it also had a greater impact on Europe and North America compared to the rest of the world. Outbound tourism of Germany and France was mainly limited to Europe. China should vigorously develop outbound tourism, increase the import of service trade, balance international trade, reduce trade friction, and use the international influence of outbound tourism to create a favorable international environment and safeguard national interests.
引文
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1)据《中国统计年鉴2017》,三次产业的增长贡献率为三次产业或主要行业增量占GDP增量的比例。
2)ADS(Approved Destination Status)签证国,即“被批准的旅游目的地国家”。
3)根据历年世界旅游组织公布数据计算整理而得。
4)世界银行WDI数据库(http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=world-development-indicators#)
5)世界银行WDI数据库(http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=world-development-indicators#)
[2] Keating B W, Huang S S, Kriz A, et al. A systematic review of the Chinese outbound tourism literature:1983-2012[J]. Journal of Travel&Tourism Marketing, 2015, 32(1-2):2-17.
[3] Oppermann M, Cooper M. Outbound travel and quality of life:The effect of airline price wars[J]. Journal of Business Research, 1999,44(3):179-188.
[4] Jeong G H. Cross-cultural tourist behavior[J]. Tourism Management, 1996, 17(4):277-286.
[5] Li X P, Yue Y X, Pamela A W. Motivation segmentation of Chinese tourists visiting the US[J]. Tourism Analysis, 2009, 14(4):515-520.
[6] Yang X Y, Reeh T, Kreisel W. Cross-cultural perspectives on promoting festival tourism:An examination of motives and perceptions of Chinese visitors attending the Oktoberfest in Munich(Germany)[J]. Journal of China Tourism Research, 2011, 7(4):377-395.
[7]曾丽,翁时秀,李想,等.有计划购买还是冲动消费?出境旅游高消费现象探析[J].旅游学刊, 2017, 32(5):26-35.[Zeng L,Weng S X, Li X, et al. Deliberate purchases or impulse shopping?An investigation of the“high consumption”phenomenon among Chinese outbound tourists[J]. Tourism Tribune, 2017, 32(5):26-35.]
[8] Dritsakis N. Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor:An empirical investigation for Greece using causality analysis[J].Tourism Economics, 2004, 10(3):305-316.
[9] Kim H J, Chen M H, Jang S C. Tourism expansion and economic development:The case of Taiwan[J]. Tourism Management, 2006,27(5):925-933.
[10]戴学锋.论开征出境旅游消费税及利弊分析[J].北京第二外国语学院学报, 2013, 35(7):1-7.[Dai X F. Pros and cons of levying outbound tourism consumption tax[J]. Journal of Beijing International Studies University, 2013, 35(7):1-7.]
[11] Jorgensen M T, Law R, King B E. Understanding the past, anticipating the future:A critical assessment of China outbound tourism research[J]. Journal of Travel&Tourism Marketing, 2017, 34(7):1-12.
[12] Tse T S M. A review of Chinese outbound tourism research and the way forward[J]. Journal of China Tourism Research, 11(1):1-18.
[13] Huang Q, Lu Y. Generational perspective on consumer behavior:China’s potential outbound tourist market[J]. Tourism Management Perspectives, 2017, 24:7-15.
[14] Dogru T, Sirakaya-Turk E, Crouch G I. Remodeling international tourism demand:Old theory and new evidence[J]. Tourism Management, 2017, 60:47-55.
[15] Garcia F A. A comparative study of the evolution of tourism policy in Spain and Portugal[J]. Tourism Management Perspectives,2014, 11:34-50.
[16] Kim S S S, Timothy D J, Han H C. Tourism and political ideologies:A case of tourism in North Korea[J]. Tourism Management,2007, 28(4):1031-1043.
[17] Butler R, Mao B. Conceptual and theoretical implications of tourism between partitioned states[J]. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 1996, 1(1):25-34.
[18] Zhang X, Keith J. From wealth to power:China’s new economic statecraft[J]. Washington Quarterly, 2017, 40(1):185-203.
[19]马波,寇敏.中国出境旅游发展及其影响的初步研究[J].旅游学刊, 2006, 21(7):24-28.[Ma B, Kou M. An initial study on the development of China’s outbound travel and its impact[J]. Tourism Tribune, 2006, 21(7):24-28.]
[20] Rowen I. Tourism as a territorial strategy:The case of China and Taiwan[J]. Annals of Tourism Research, 2014, 46:62-74.
[21] Dai B, Jiang Y, Yang L, et al. China’s outbound tourism-stages,policies and choices[J]. Tourism Management, 2016, 58:253-258.
[22]郭鲁芳,张素.中国公民出境旅游文明与软实力提升研究[J].旅游学刊, 2008, 23(12):18-22.[Guo L F, Zhang S. A study on outbound tourism ethics of Chinese citizens and“soft power”upgrade[J]. Tourism Tribune, 2008, 23(12):18-22.]
[23]黄细嘉,周青.出境旅游发展与旅游强国建设[J].旅游学刊,2011, 26(8):10-11.[Huang X J, Zhou Q. Outbound tourism development and tourism power construction[J]. Tourism Tribune,2011, 26(8):10-11.]
[24] Tse T S M, Arlt W G, Burns P. Chinese outbound tourism as a form of diplomacy[J]. Tourism Planning&Development, 2013, 10(2):149-158.
[25]戴学锋.论出境旅游在扩展中国国际影响力中的作用[J].北京第二外国语学院学报, 2012,(9):1-8.[Dai X F. Outbound tourism:As important means to enhance international in?uence of China[J]. Journal of Beijing International Studies University, 2012,(9):1-8.]
[26] Mak B. The influence of political ideology on the outbound tourism in China[J]. Journal of China Tourism Research, 2013, 9(1):1-26.
[27]聂艳梅.中国城市形象影响力评估指标体系及其提升策略研究[D].上海:上海师范大学, 2015.[Nie Y M. Evaluation Index System and Promotion Strategy of China’s Urban Image Influence[D].Shanghai:Shanghai Normal University, 2015.]
[28]蒋云根.政治人的心理世界[M].上海:学林出版社, 2002.[Jiang Y G. The Psychological World of Political People[M]. Shanghai:Xuelin Press, 2002.]
[29]罗伯特·A·达尔.现代政治分析[M].吴勇,译.北京:中国人民大学出版社, 2012.[Dahl R A. Modern Political Analysis[M]. Wu Y, Tran.. Beijing:China Renmin University Press, 2012.]
[30]许晓春.国际政治中的影响力概念探析[J].国际关系学院学报,2003,(4):3-7.[Xu X C. The concept of influence in international politics[J]. Journal of the University of International Relations,2003,(4):3-7.]
[31]关世杰.中华文化国际影响力调查研究[M].北京:北京大学出版社, 2016.[Guan S J. Research on the International Influence of Chinese Culture[M]. Beijing:Peking University Press, 2016.]
[32] Evelyn G. The modes of China’s influence:Cases from Southeast Asia[J]. Asian Survey, 2014, 54(5):825-848.
[33] Baldwin D A. Power analysis and world politics:New trends versus old tendencies[J]. World Politics, 1979, 31(2):161-194.
[34]徐晏卓.变动中的亚洲秩序与中国影响力分析[J].上海交通大学学报(哲学社会科学版), 2017, 25(3):34-43.[Xu Y Z. An analysis of the changing Asian order and China’s influence[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University(Philosophy and Social Sciences),2017, 25(3):34-43.]
[35]孙根年,李红,周功梅.香港社会对内地自由行及入境旅游激增的情绪反应[J].经济地理, 2016, 36(2):182-188.[Sun G N, Li H, Zhou G M. HK’s love-hate for free exercise and a surge in inbound tourism from mainland China:Based on effects analysis of tourism’s social-economic impacts[J]. Economic Geography,2016, 36(2):182-188.]
[36]付亦重,程斌琪,张汉林.全球经济影响力指数构建及应用研究[J].国际贸易问题, 2017,(12):47-58.[Fu Y Z, Cheng B Q,Zhang H L. Research on construction and application of global economic influence index[J]. Journal of International Trade, 2017,(12):47-58.]
[37]吴雪明.中国国际经济地位和国际经济影响力的综合分析[J].世界经济研究, 2010,(12):18-23.[Wu X M. Comprehensive analysis on China’s international economic status and international economic influence[J]. World Economy Study, 2010,(12):18-23.]
[38]孙根年,周功梅,李红.中美入境旅游,谁的市场更大:基于多样性、重要性、旅游偏好及市场吨位的比较[J].旅游科学, 2015,29(3):15-26.[Sun G N, Zhou G M, Li H. A comparison of inbound tourism in China and US:Based on market diversity, proportion of international outbound trips, travel preference and travel tonnage index[J]. Tourism Science, 2015, 29(3):15-26.]
[39]李冠国.多样性指数的应用[J].海洋科学, 1981, 5(2):4-8.[Li G G. Application of diversity index[J]. Marine Sciences, 1981, 5(2):4-8.]
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1)据《中国统计年鉴2017》,三次产业的增长贡献率为三次产业或主要行业增量占GDP增量的比例。
2)ADS(Approved Destination Status)签证国,即“被批准的旅游目的地国家”。
3)根据历年世界旅游组织公布数据计算整理而得。
4)世界银行WDI数据库(http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=world-development-indicators#)
5)世界银行WDI数据库(http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=world-development-indicators#)
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