ZG市非接触型诈骗被害相对发生概率的性别差异
|
摘要
利用ZG市老城区2015~2016年具有个人属性的诈骗警情数据,分析女性和男性遭受非接触型诈骗相对接触型诈骗的发生概率,建立多层次Logit回归模型研究其影响因素的差异。结果表明,两性别非接触型诈骗被害的相对发生概率均受制于个体和社区两个层次因素的影响,且社区层次均发挥主要作用。其中,女性和男性在个体层次的影响因素类似,表现为本地户籍的高水平受教育者在白天更易遭受非接触型诈骗的侵害。但在社区层次的影响因素迥异,在外来人口少、银行网点少、离婚丧偶率低、有高校的本地年轻人为主的社区,女性非接触型诈骗被害相对发生概率高;而在租房比例高、农业人口少、大型零售商业网点少、低教育水平人口比例少的外来中高收入白领为主的社区,男性非接触型诈骗被害相对发生概率则更高。
While fraud has become more prevalent in today's society, there has been few study on gender differences on fraud, and even fewer on the contributing factors of such differences, especially in the context of non-contact fraud(NCF) vs contact fraud(CF). This article aims to narrow this gap by examining fraud data from the police of ZG old city, covering the period from 2015 to 2016, to reveal possible relationships between fraud and individual characteristics of the victims. Results of hierarchical linear models(HLM) on the ratio of NCF/CF suggest that both personal and community factors play an important role for females and males, especially the latter. Specifically, local household registration status, time of fraud in terms of day vs night, and the level of education of the individuals, show similar strength and direction for both females and males. At the community level, risk factors are totally different across different genders. The percent of colleges and the young people show significant positive correlation, while the number of bank branches, percent of migrant population and divorce rate pose a negative impact for female victims. For male victims, percent of rental properties shows a positive correlation while level of education, percent of agricultural population and existence of large retail outlets have negative impacts. Findings of this study adds to the literature on fraud, and may provide insight on developing strategies for fraud prevention and reduction.
While fraud has become more prevalent in today's society, there has been few study on gender differences on fraud, and even fewer on the contributing factors of such differences, especially in the context of non-contact fraud(NCF) vs contact fraud(CF). This article aims to narrow this gap by examining fraud data from the police of ZG old city, covering the period from 2015 to 2016, to reveal possible relationships between fraud and individual characteristics of the victims. Results of hierarchical linear models(HLM) on the ratio of NCF/CF suggest that both personal and community factors play an important role for females and males, especially the latter. Specifically, local household registration status, time of fraud in terms of day vs night, and the level of education of the individuals, show similar strength and direction for both females and males. At the community level, risk factors are totally different across different genders. The percent of colleges and the young people show significant positive correlation, while the number of bank branches, percent of migrant population and divorce rate pose a negative impact for female victims. For male victims, percent of rental properties shows a positive correlation while level of education, percent of agricultural population and existence of large retail outlets have negative impacts. Findings of this study adds to the literature on fraud, and may provide insight on developing strategies for fraud prevention and reduction.
引文
[1]陈增明,陈锦然,刘欣然.信息化背景下财产诈骗犯罪的实证分析--基于法经济学与社会学的双重视角[J].东南学术,2015(1):98-106.[Chen Zengming,Chen Jinran,Liu Xinran.An empirical analysis of fraud crime under the background of informatization.Southeast Academic Research,2015(1):98-106.]
[2]江明君,张欣之,胡峻梅.电话网络诈骗案件的受害人研究--基于255例案件的研究[J].犯罪研究,2014(3):45-50.[Jiang Mingjun,Zhang Xinzhi,Hu Junmei.A study on victims of telephone network fraud based on 255 cases.Chinese Criminology Review,2014(3):45-50.]
[3]Pratt T C,Holtfreter K,Reisig M D.Routine online activity and internet fraud targeting:Extending the generality of routine activity theory[J].Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency,2010,47(3):267-296.
[4]Policastro C,Payne B K.Can you hear me now?Telemarketing fraud victimization and Lifestyles[J].American Journal of Criminal Justice,2015,40(3):620-638.
[5]Reisig M D,Wolfe S E,Pratt T C.Low self-control and the religiosity-crime relationship[J].Criminal Justice and Behavior,2012,39(9):1172-1191.
[6]Holtfreter K,Reisig M D,Leeper Piquero N et al.Low self-control and fraud:Offending,victimization,and their overlap[J].Criminal Justice and Behavior,2010,37(2):188-203.
[7]Turanovic J J,Pratt T C.“Can’t stop,won’t stop”:Self-control,risky lifestyles,and repeat victimization[J].Journal of Quantitative Criminology,2014,30(1):29-56.
[8]Pratt T C,Turanovic J J,Fox K A et al.Self-control and victimization:A meta-analysis[J].Criminology,2014,52(1):87-116.
[9]Lane G W,Sui D Z.Geographies of identity theft in the US:understanding spatial and demographic patterns,2002-2006[J].Geo Journal,2010,75(1):43-55.
[10]Reisig M D,Pratt T C,Holtfreter K.Perceived risk of internet theft victimization examining the effects of social vulnerability and financial impulsivity[J].Criminal Justice and Behavior,2009,36(4):369-384.
[11]Reyns B W,Henson B,Fisher B S.Being pursued online:Applying cyberlifestyle-routine activities theory to cyberstalking victimization[J].Criminal justice and behavior,2011,38(11):1149-1169.
[12]Reisig M D,Holtfreter K.Shopping fraud victimization among the elderly[J].Journal of Financial Crime,2013,20(3):324-337.
[13]Li J C M,Yu M,Wong G T W et al.Understanding and preventing financial fraud against older citizens in Chinese society:Results of a focus group study[J].International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology,2016,60(13):1509-1531.
[14]Burgason K A,Thomas S A,Berthelot E R.The nature of violence:a multilevel analysis of gun use and victim injury in violent interpersonal encounters[J].Journal of Interpersonal Violence,2014,29(3):371.
[15]Burgason K A,Thomas S A,Berthelot E R et al.Thomas S A.Gats and gashes:Street culture and distinctions in the nature of violence between youth and adult offenders[J].Deviant Behavior,2014,35(7):534-554.
[16]柳林,张春霞,冯嘉欣,等.ZG市诈骗犯罪的时空分布与影响因素[J].地理学报,2017,72(2):315-328.[Liu Lin,Zhang Chunxia,Feng Jiaxin et al.The spatial-temporal distribution and influencing factors of fraud crime in ZG city,China.Acta Geographica Sinica,2017,72(2):315-328.]
[17]姜超,唐焕丽,柳林.中国犯罪地理研究述评[J].地理科学进展,2014,33(4):561-573.[Jiang Chao,Tang Huanli,Liu Lin.Review of crime geography in China.Progress in Geography,2014,33(4):561-573.]
[18]吴玲,程叶青.公共空间内犯罪被害性别差异的阐释:基于整合性的理论视角[J].人文地理,2015,30(1):45-49.[Wu Ling,Cheng Yeqing.Gender ratio of victimizations in public space:An integrative theoretical perspective.Human Geography,2015,(1):45-49.]
[19]Jody Miller,Scott H.Decker.Young women and gang violence:Gender,street offending,and violent victimization in gangs[J].Justice Quarterly,2001,18(1):115-140.
[20]Ward J T,Fox K A,Tillyer M S et al.Gender,low self-control,and violent victimization[J].Deviant Behavior,2015,36(2):113-129.
[21]Turanovic J J,Reisig M D,Pratt T C.Risky lifestyles,low self-control,and violent victimization across gendered pathways to crime[J].Journal of Quantitative Criminology,2015,31(2):183-206.
[22]Moon B,Morash M,Jeong S J et al.Gender differences in the routine activities associated with risks for larceny in South Korea[J].International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology,2016,60(11):1327-1343.
[23]Dodge M,Bosick S J,Antwerp V V.Do men and women perceive white-collar and street crime differently?Exploring gender differences in the perception of seriousness,motives,and punishment[J].Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice,2013,29(3):399-415.
[24]Mufti?L R,Finn M A,Marsh E A.The victim-offender overlap,intimate partner violence,and sex:Assessing differences among victims,offenders,and victim-offenders[J].Crime&Delinquency,2015,61(7):899-926.
[25]Li J C M.Violence against Chinese female sex workers in Hong Kong:from understanding to prevention[J].International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology,2013,57(5):613-631.
[26]Daigle L E,Mummert S J.Sex-role identification and violent victimization:gender differences in the role of masculinity[J].Journal of Interpersonal Violence,2014,29(2):255-278.
[27]Lauritsen J L,Carbone-Lopez K.Gender Differences in Risk factors for violent victimization an examination of individual-,family-,and community-Level Predictors[J].Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency,2011,48(4):538-565.
[28]Pratt T,Holtfreter K,Reisig M.Routine Online Activity and Internet Fraud Targeting:Extending the Generality of Routine Activity Theory[J].Journal of Research in Crime&Delinquency,2010,47(3):267-296.
[29]龙冬平,柳林,冯嘉欣,等.社区环境对入室盗窃和室外盗窃影响的对比分析--以ZG市ZH半岛为例[J].地理学报,2017,72(2):341-355.[Long Dongping,Liu Lin,Feng Jiaxin et al.Comparisons of the community environment effects on burglary and outdoor-theft:A case study of ZH peninsula in ZGcity.Acta Geographica Sinica,2017,72(2):341-355.]
[30]Cohen L E,Felson M.Social change and crime rate trends:Aroutine activity approach[J].American Sociological Review,1979,44(4):588-608.
[31]谢宇.回归分析[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2013.[Xie Yu.Regression analysis.Beijing:Social Science Academic Press,2013.]
[32]Zimmerman G M,Welsh B C,Posick C.Investigating the role of neighborhood youth organizations in preventing adolescent violent offending:Evidence from Chicago[J].Journal of Quantitative Criminology,2015,31(4):565-593.
[33]Browning C R,Byron R A,Calder C A et al.Commercial density,residential concentration,and crime:Land use patterns and violence in neighborhood context[J].Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency,2010,47(3):329-357.
[34]周素红,宋江宇,宋广文.广州市居民工作日小汽车出行个体与社区双层影响机制[J].地理学报,2017,72(8):1365-1378.[Zhou Suhong,Song Jiangyu,Song Guangwen.Examining the dual-levels impact of neighborhood and individual variables on car use on weekdays in Guangzhou.Acta Geographica Sinica,2017,72(8):1365-1378]
[35]宋广文,肖露子,周素红,等.居民日常活动对扒窃警情时空格局的影响[J].地理学报,2017,72(2):356-367.[Song Guangwen,Xiao Luzi,Zhou Suhong et al.Impact of residents'routine activities on the spatial-temporal pattern of theft from person.Acta Geographica Sinica,2017,72(2):356-367.]
[36]徐冲,柳林,周素红,等.DP半岛街头抢劫犯罪案件热点时空模式[J].地理学报,2013,68(12):1714-1723.[Xu Chong,Liu Lin,Zhou Suhong et al.The spatio-temporal patterns of street robbery in DP Peninsula.Acta Geographica Sinica,2013,68(12):1714-1723.]
[37]何深静,左姣姣,朱寿佳,等.中国大城市贫困研究的多种测度与多层模型分析[J].人文地理,2014,29(6):74-80.[He Shenjing,Zuo Jiaojiao,Zhu Shoujia et Al.Understanding Urban Pocerty in Large Chinese Cities Using Multiple Measurements and Hierarchical Regession Models.Human Geography,2014,29(6):74-80.]
[38]Pratt T,Holtfreter K,Reisig M.Routine online activity and internet fraud targeting:extending the generality of routine activity theory[J].Journal of Research in Crime&Delinquency,2010,47(3):267-296.
[39]Johnson S D,Summers L.Testing ecological theories of offender spatial decision making using a discrete choice model[J].Crime&Delinquency,2015,61(3):454-480.
[40]Brantingham P L,Brantingham P J.Residential burglary and urban form[J].Urban Studies,1975,12(3):273-284.
[41]陈蔚珊,柳林,梁育填.基于POI数据的广州零售商业中心热点识别与业态集聚特征分析[J].地理研究,2016,35(4):703-716.[Chen Weishan,Liu Lin,Liang Yutian et al.Retail center recognition and spatial aggregating feature analysis of retail formats in Guangzhou based on POI data.Geographical Research,2016,35(4):703-716.]
[42]周素红,谢蔚翰,宋广文,等.土地利用对街头抢劫影响的空间分异模式:以H市为例[J].地理科学,2017,37(6):885-894.[Zhou Suhong,Xie Weihan,Song Guangwen et al.The Spatial Differentiation Effect of Land Use on Street Robbery:A Case Study in H City,China.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2017,37(6):885-894.]
[43]徐冲,柳林,周素红.基于临近相似性考虑的犯罪热点密度图预测准确性比较--以DP半岛街头抢劫犯罪为例[J].地理科学,2016,36(1):55-62.[Xu Chong,Liu Lin,Zhou Suhong.The Comparison of Predictive Accuracy of Crime Hotspot Density Maps with the Consideration of the Near Similarity:A Case Study of Robberies at DP Peninsula.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2016,36(1):55-62.]
[2]江明君,张欣之,胡峻梅.电话网络诈骗案件的受害人研究--基于255例案件的研究[J].犯罪研究,2014(3):45-50.[Jiang Mingjun,Zhang Xinzhi,Hu Junmei.A study on victims of telephone network fraud based on 255 cases.Chinese Criminology Review,2014(3):45-50.]
[3]Pratt T C,Holtfreter K,Reisig M D.Routine online activity and internet fraud targeting:Extending the generality of routine activity theory[J].Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency,2010,47(3):267-296.
[4]Policastro C,Payne B K.Can you hear me now?Telemarketing fraud victimization and Lifestyles[J].American Journal of Criminal Justice,2015,40(3):620-638.
[5]Reisig M D,Wolfe S E,Pratt T C.Low self-control and the religiosity-crime relationship[J].Criminal Justice and Behavior,2012,39(9):1172-1191.
[6]Holtfreter K,Reisig M D,Leeper Piquero N et al.Low self-control and fraud:Offending,victimization,and their overlap[J].Criminal Justice and Behavior,2010,37(2):188-203.
[7]Turanovic J J,Pratt T C.“Can’t stop,won’t stop”:Self-control,risky lifestyles,and repeat victimization[J].Journal of Quantitative Criminology,2014,30(1):29-56.
[8]Pratt T C,Turanovic J J,Fox K A et al.Self-control and victimization:A meta-analysis[J].Criminology,2014,52(1):87-116.
[9]Lane G W,Sui D Z.Geographies of identity theft in the US:understanding spatial and demographic patterns,2002-2006[J].Geo Journal,2010,75(1):43-55.
[10]Reisig M D,Pratt T C,Holtfreter K.Perceived risk of internet theft victimization examining the effects of social vulnerability and financial impulsivity[J].Criminal Justice and Behavior,2009,36(4):369-384.
[11]Reyns B W,Henson B,Fisher B S.Being pursued online:Applying cyberlifestyle-routine activities theory to cyberstalking victimization[J].Criminal justice and behavior,2011,38(11):1149-1169.
[12]Reisig M D,Holtfreter K.Shopping fraud victimization among the elderly[J].Journal of Financial Crime,2013,20(3):324-337.
[13]Li J C M,Yu M,Wong G T W et al.Understanding and preventing financial fraud against older citizens in Chinese society:Results of a focus group study[J].International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology,2016,60(13):1509-1531.
[14]Burgason K A,Thomas S A,Berthelot E R.The nature of violence:a multilevel analysis of gun use and victim injury in violent interpersonal encounters[J].Journal of Interpersonal Violence,2014,29(3):371.
[15]Burgason K A,Thomas S A,Berthelot E R et al.Thomas S A.Gats and gashes:Street culture and distinctions in the nature of violence between youth and adult offenders[J].Deviant Behavior,2014,35(7):534-554.
[16]柳林,张春霞,冯嘉欣,等.ZG市诈骗犯罪的时空分布与影响因素[J].地理学报,2017,72(2):315-328.[Liu Lin,Zhang Chunxia,Feng Jiaxin et al.The spatial-temporal distribution and influencing factors of fraud crime in ZG city,China.Acta Geographica Sinica,2017,72(2):315-328.]
[17]姜超,唐焕丽,柳林.中国犯罪地理研究述评[J].地理科学进展,2014,33(4):561-573.[Jiang Chao,Tang Huanli,Liu Lin.Review of crime geography in China.Progress in Geography,2014,33(4):561-573.]
[18]吴玲,程叶青.公共空间内犯罪被害性别差异的阐释:基于整合性的理论视角[J].人文地理,2015,30(1):45-49.[Wu Ling,Cheng Yeqing.Gender ratio of victimizations in public space:An integrative theoretical perspective.Human Geography,2015,(1):45-49.]
[19]Jody Miller,Scott H.Decker.Young women and gang violence:Gender,street offending,and violent victimization in gangs[J].Justice Quarterly,2001,18(1):115-140.
[20]Ward J T,Fox K A,Tillyer M S et al.Gender,low self-control,and violent victimization[J].Deviant Behavior,2015,36(2):113-129.
[21]Turanovic J J,Reisig M D,Pratt T C.Risky lifestyles,low self-control,and violent victimization across gendered pathways to crime[J].Journal of Quantitative Criminology,2015,31(2):183-206.
[22]Moon B,Morash M,Jeong S J et al.Gender differences in the routine activities associated with risks for larceny in South Korea[J].International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology,2016,60(11):1327-1343.
[23]Dodge M,Bosick S J,Antwerp V V.Do men and women perceive white-collar and street crime differently?Exploring gender differences in the perception of seriousness,motives,and punishment[J].Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice,2013,29(3):399-415.
[24]Mufti?L R,Finn M A,Marsh E A.The victim-offender overlap,intimate partner violence,and sex:Assessing differences among victims,offenders,and victim-offenders[J].Crime&Delinquency,2015,61(7):899-926.
[25]Li J C M.Violence against Chinese female sex workers in Hong Kong:from understanding to prevention[J].International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology,2013,57(5):613-631.
[26]Daigle L E,Mummert S J.Sex-role identification and violent victimization:gender differences in the role of masculinity[J].Journal of Interpersonal Violence,2014,29(2):255-278.
[27]Lauritsen J L,Carbone-Lopez K.Gender Differences in Risk factors for violent victimization an examination of individual-,family-,and community-Level Predictors[J].Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency,2011,48(4):538-565.
[28]Pratt T,Holtfreter K,Reisig M.Routine Online Activity and Internet Fraud Targeting:Extending the Generality of Routine Activity Theory[J].Journal of Research in Crime&Delinquency,2010,47(3):267-296.
[29]龙冬平,柳林,冯嘉欣,等.社区环境对入室盗窃和室外盗窃影响的对比分析--以ZG市ZH半岛为例[J].地理学报,2017,72(2):341-355.[Long Dongping,Liu Lin,Feng Jiaxin et al.Comparisons of the community environment effects on burglary and outdoor-theft:A case study of ZH peninsula in ZGcity.Acta Geographica Sinica,2017,72(2):341-355.]
[30]Cohen L E,Felson M.Social change and crime rate trends:Aroutine activity approach[J].American Sociological Review,1979,44(4):588-608.
[31]谢宇.回归分析[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2013.[Xie Yu.Regression analysis.Beijing:Social Science Academic Press,2013.]
[32]Zimmerman G M,Welsh B C,Posick C.Investigating the role of neighborhood youth organizations in preventing adolescent violent offending:Evidence from Chicago[J].Journal of Quantitative Criminology,2015,31(4):565-593.
[33]Browning C R,Byron R A,Calder C A et al.Commercial density,residential concentration,and crime:Land use patterns and violence in neighborhood context[J].Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency,2010,47(3):329-357.
[34]周素红,宋江宇,宋广文.广州市居民工作日小汽车出行个体与社区双层影响机制[J].地理学报,2017,72(8):1365-1378.[Zhou Suhong,Song Jiangyu,Song Guangwen.Examining the dual-levels impact of neighborhood and individual variables on car use on weekdays in Guangzhou.Acta Geographica Sinica,2017,72(8):1365-1378]
[35]宋广文,肖露子,周素红,等.居民日常活动对扒窃警情时空格局的影响[J].地理学报,2017,72(2):356-367.[Song Guangwen,Xiao Luzi,Zhou Suhong et al.Impact of residents'routine activities on the spatial-temporal pattern of theft from person.Acta Geographica Sinica,2017,72(2):356-367.]
[36]徐冲,柳林,周素红,等.DP半岛街头抢劫犯罪案件热点时空模式[J].地理学报,2013,68(12):1714-1723.[Xu Chong,Liu Lin,Zhou Suhong et al.The spatio-temporal patterns of street robbery in DP Peninsula.Acta Geographica Sinica,2013,68(12):1714-1723.]
[37]何深静,左姣姣,朱寿佳,等.中国大城市贫困研究的多种测度与多层模型分析[J].人文地理,2014,29(6):74-80.[He Shenjing,Zuo Jiaojiao,Zhu Shoujia et Al.Understanding Urban Pocerty in Large Chinese Cities Using Multiple Measurements and Hierarchical Regession Models.Human Geography,2014,29(6):74-80.]
[38]Pratt T,Holtfreter K,Reisig M.Routine online activity and internet fraud targeting:extending the generality of routine activity theory[J].Journal of Research in Crime&Delinquency,2010,47(3):267-296.
[39]Johnson S D,Summers L.Testing ecological theories of offender spatial decision making using a discrete choice model[J].Crime&Delinquency,2015,61(3):454-480.
[40]Brantingham P L,Brantingham P J.Residential burglary and urban form[J].Urban Studies,1975,12(3):273-284.
[41]陈蔚珊,柳林,梁育填.基于POI数据的广州零售商业中心热点识别与业态集聚特征分析[J].地理研究,2016,35(4):703-716.[Chen Weishan,Liu Lin,Liang Yutian et al.Retail center recognition and spatial aggregating feature analysis of retail formats in Guangzhou based on POI data.Geographical Research,2016,35(4):703-716.]
[42]周素红,谢蔚翰,宋广文,等.土地利用对街头抢劫影响的空间分异模式:以H市为例[J].地理科学,2017,37(6):885-894.[Zhou Suhong,Xie Weihan,Song Guangwen et al.The Spatial Differentiation Effect of Land Use on Street Robbery:A Case Study in H City,China.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2017,37(6):885-894.]
[43]徐冲,柳林,周素红.基于临近相似性考虑的犯罪热点密度图预测准确性比较--以DP半岛街头抢劫犯罪为例[J].地理科学,2016,36(1):55-62.[Xu Chong,Liu Lin,Zhou Suhong.The Comparison of Predictive Accuracy of Crime Hotspot Density Maps with the Consideration of the Near Similarity:A Case Study of Robberies at DP Peninsula.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2016,36(1):55-62.]