关于中美贸易不平衡问题研究——基于涉华负面新闻角度
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摘要
中美关系一直是两国乃至全世界关注的焦点,美国媒体情绪会反映出美国政府、社会和人民对中美两国经贸关系的立场。基于1990年1月～2017年12月美国境内涉华负面新闻数据以及中美双边贸易数据,检验了两者之间的因果关系。研究发现,中美贸易顺差冲击(TDS)在美国发生的2到3个月后,美国境内涉华负面新闻指数值急剧上升,并在第三个月时达到最高值,随后开始逐渐下降。这一结果表明,美国境内涉华负面新闻飙升现象的出现,可能是中美双边贸易波动的内生因素。
Sino-US relations have always been the focus between the two countries and world concern as well, but the US media emotion reflected the standpoint of US governmental, social and people on Sino-US economic and trade relations. Based on the China-related negative news data in America and Sino-US bilateral trade data from 1990.1 to 2017.12, this paper examines the causality between the two issues. The results reveal that after two to three months of TDS in America, the number of China-related negative news in America sharply increased, and it has reached up to the maximum till the third month and then gradually decreases. It reveals that the severe rising of China-related negative news in American might be the inner factor of Sino-US lateral trade fluctuation.
Sino-US relations have always been the focus between the two countries and world concern as well, but the US media emotion reflected the standpoint of US governmental, social and people on Sino-US economic and trade relations. Based on the China-related negative news data in America and Sino-US bilateral trade data from 1990.1 to 2017.12, this paper examines the causality between the two issues. The results reveal that after two to three months of TDS in America, the number of China-related negative news in America sharply increased, and it has reached up to the maximum till the third month and then gradually decreases. It reveals that the severe rising of China-related negative news in American might be the inner factor of Sino-US lateral trade fluctuation.
引文
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[2]Arcuri,Luciano,et al.Predicting the Vote:Implicit Attitudes as Predictors of the Future Behavior of Decided and Undecided Voters[J].Political Psychology,2008(3)369-387.
[3]Cover J P.Asymmetric Effects of Positive and Negative Money-Supply Shocks[J].Social Science Electronic Publishing,2007(4):1261-1282.
[4]Enders,Walter.Applied Economic Time Series[J]Technometrics,1995(4):469-470.
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[6]Milyo J,Groseclose T.A Measure of Media Bias[J].Working Papers,2005(4):1191-1237.
[7]Ramirez C D,Rong R.China Bashing:Does Trade Drive the'Bad'News About China in the U.S.?[J].Review of International Economics,2012(2):350-363.
[8]Ramirez C D.The Effect of'China Bashing'on Sino-American Relations[J].Journal of Chinese Politica Science,2012(3):291-311.
[9]Stromberg,D.Media and Politics[J].Annual Review of Economics,2015(7):173-205.
[10]冯文权.传递函数模型与干预分析模型[J].数量经济技术经济研究,1989(12):47-53.
[11]卢锋,殷剑峰,钟伟,汪涛,黄海洲,邢自强,朱海斌,崔历,刘元春,鲁政委,陈兴动,伍戈,洪灏,程实,张斌,张明.动荡中的分化:美国与中国经济[J].国际经济评论,2017(1):42-86.
[12]谭融.利益集团与美国对华贸易政策---中国贸易“最惠国待遇”案例研究[J].吉林大学社会科学学报,2004(4):63-66.
[13]堂前钦司,杜宏.从最惠国待遇看中美关系---美国国内政治对中美关系的影响[J].国际观察,2002(2):21-25.
[14]屠新泉.中国加入WTO以来的美国对华贸易政策[J].世界经济研究,2007(11):30-36.
[15]吴浩,曹庭泉,花向红,邹进贵,史文中,卢楠GNSS时间序列中随机漫步消噪的改进半软阈值算法及其评估[J].测绘学报,2016(S2):22-30.
[16]吴心伯.论亚太大变局[J].世界经济与政治,2017(6):32-59.
[17]朱锋.人权问题和中美关系:变化与挑战[J].世界经济与政治,2000(7):19-24.
[18]庄子银,李宏武.贸易、知识产权与出口企业创新:基于美国337调查的实证分析[J].世界经济研究,2018(4):75-87.