消费升级还是消费降级
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摘要
新一轮"消费升级"是中国经济社会高质量发展的重要支撑。本文基于消费升级的基准框架,围绕中国居民消费结构的动态演变,分别从消费结构和消费习惯两个层面对消费升级内涵进行分析。其中,消费结构部分使用微观数据与宏观数据进行了相互印证。消费结构层面的分析表明,1998—2017年,中国城乡居民的第I类消费升级(食品等生存性消费占比下降)和第II类消费升级(符号性和服务性消费占比上升)均在持续不断地进行,但乡村居民的第I类消费升级效应小于城镇居民;2013年以后,随着中国宏观经济下行压力增大,第II类消费升级出现一定程度的放缓,居住类支出对其他消费支出形成了较大的挤出效应。消费习惯层面的分析显示,城镇居民和乡村居民、恩格尔系数大于40%和小于40%的居民,其消费行为存在较大的异质性。乡村居民和恩格尔系数大于40%的居民,其总消费和分项消费增长受到的制约因素更多。本文的研究为部分存在的消费降级问题提供了可能的解释。
"Consumption upgrade" is an important support for the high-quality development of China's economy and society.This paper analyses the connotation of consumption upgrading from two aspects and does researches on dynamic evolution of Chinese residents' consumption structure.The consumption structure part uses micro-data and macro-data to verify each other.The results show that,during the period of 1998—2017,the first type of consumption upgrade(the decline in the proportion of food consumption) and the second type of consumption upgrade(the increase in the proportion of symbolic and service consumption) of urban and rural residents are going on.The first type of consumption upgrading is less significant among rural residents.After2013,with the downward pressure on China's macro economy,the second type of consumption upgrade slows down and the expenditure on housing has a large crowding out effect on other consumption.The results of consumption growth model estimation show that there is a large heterogeneity in consumption characteristics between urban and rural residents,residents with the Engel's coefficient more than 40% and residents with the Engel's coefficient less than 40%.Rural residents and residents with Engel coefficient more than 40% are subject to more restrictions on their consumption growth.The study provides several possible explanations for consumption degradation phenomenon.
"Consumption upgrade" is an important support for the high-quality development of China's economy and society.This paper analyses the connotation of consumption upgrading from two aspects and does researches on dynamic evolution of Chinese residents' consumption structure.The consumption structure part uses micro-data and macro-data to verify each other.The results show that,during the period of 1998—2017,the first type of consumption upgrade(the decline in the proportion of food consumption) and the second type of consumption upgrade(the increase in the proportion of symbolic and service consumption) of urban and rural residents are going on.The first type of consumption upgrading is less significant among rural residents.After2013,with the downward pressure on China's macro economy,the second type of consumption upgrade slows down and the expenditure on housing has a large crowding out effect on other consumption.The results of consumption growth model estimation show that there is a large heterogeneity in consumption characteristics between urban and rural residents,residents with the Engel's coefficient more than 40% and residents with the Engel's coefficient less than 40%.Rural residents and residents with Engel coefficient more than 40% are subject to more restrictions on their consumption growth.The study provides several possible explanations for consumption degradation phenomenon.
引文
[1]艾春荣,汪伟.习惯偏好下的中国居民消费的过度敏感性---基于1995-2005年省际动态面板数据的分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008,(11):98-114.
[2]杭斌,闫新华.经济快速增长时期的居民消费行为---基于习惯形成的实证分析[J].经济学(季刊),2013,(4):1191-1208.
[3]黄隽,李冀恺.中国消费升级的特征、度量与发展[J].中国流通经济,2018,(4):94-101.
[4]黄群慧.“新常态”、工业化后期与工业增长新动力[J].中国工业经济,2014,(10):5-19.
[5]黄娅娜,宗庆庆.中国城镇居民的消费习惯形成效应[J].经济研究,2014,(1):17-28.
[6]厉以宁.消费经济学[M].北京:人民出版社,1984.
[7]彭兴韵.粘性信息经济学---宏观经济学最新发展的一个文献综述[J].经济研究,2011,(12):138-151.
[8]石明明,刘向东.空间、消费黏性与中国低消费率之谜[J].中国人民大学学报,2015,(3):46-56.
[9]宋明月,臧旭恒.不确定性、粘性信息的叠加效应与我国乡村消费潜力释放[J].经济评论,2018,(3):129-141.
[10]谭涛,张燕媛,何军.中国乡村居民家庭医疗消费支出的影响因素及弹性分析[J].上海财经大学学报,2014,(3):63-69.
[11]唐琦,夏庆杰,李实.中国城镇居民家庭的消费结构分析:1995-2013[J].经济研究,2018,(2):35-49.
[12]田晖.消费经济学[M].上海:同济大学出版社,2006.
[13]王一鸣.改革开放以来我国宏观经济政策的演进与创新[J].管理世界,2018,(3):1-10.
[14]王勇.食品价格波动对家庭消费的影响研究---基于CFPS2014数据的分析[J].调研世界,2018,(8):40-48.
[15]薛荣久.入世在中国改革开放中的意义、作用与维护[J].国际贸易问题,2018,(10):1-15.
[16]尹世杰.消费经济学[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2007.
[17]元惠连,夏庆杰,王志伟.中国城镇居民消费需求分析[J].经济科学,2016,(4):54-64.
[18]张慧芳,朱雅玲.居民收入结构与消费结构关系演化的差异研究---基于AIDS扩展模型[J].经济理论与经济管理,2017,(12):23-35.
[19]张明杨,章棋.乡村居民食品消费结构的转变研究---一个解决支出约束和嵌入人口统计学特征的QUAIDS模型的应用[J].消费经济,2015,(6):27-33.
[20]张颖熙.中国城镇居民服务消费需求弹性研究---基于QUAIDS模型的分析[J].财贸经济,2014,(5):127-135.
[21]赵昕东,汪勇.食品价格上涨对不同收入等级城镇居民消费行为与福利的影响---基于QUAIDS模型的研究[J].中国软科学,2013,(8):154-162.
[22]Anderson,G.,and R.Blundell.Testing Restrictions in a Flexible Dynamic Demand System:An Application to Consumers’Expenditure in Canada[J].The Review of Economic Studies,1983,50(3):397-410.
[23]Banks,J.,R.Blundell.,and A.Lewbel.Quadratic Engel Curves and Consumer Demand[J].Review of Economics and Statistics,1997,79(4):527-539.
[24]Blanciforti L.,and R.D.Green.An Almost Ideal Demand System Incorporating Habits:An Analysis of Expenditures on Food and Aggregate Commodity Groups[J].The Review of Economics and Statistics,1983,65(3):511-515.
[25]Blundell,R.,M.Browning.,and C.Meghir.Consumer Demand and the Life-Cycle Allocation of Household Expenditures[J].The Review of Economic Studies,1993,61(1):57-80.
[26]Campbell,J.Y.,and N.G.Mankiw.Permanent Income,Current Income,and Consumption[J].Journal of Business&Economic Statistics,1990,8(3):265-279.
[27]Carroll,C.D.Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,2003,118(1):269-298.
[28]Carroll,C.D.Consumption and Saving:Theory and Evidence[R].NBER Working Paper,2006.
[29]Carroll,C.D.,E.Crawley,and J.Slacalek.Sticky Expectations and Consumption Dynamics[R].NBERWorking Paper,2018.
[30]Carroll,C.D.,J.Overland,and D.N.Weil.Comparison Utility in a Growth Model[J].Journal of Economic Growth,1997,2(4):339-367.
[31]Carroll,C.D.,J.Overland,and D.N.Weil.Saving and Growth with Habit Formation[J].American Economic Review,2000,90(3):341-355.
[32]Carroll,C.D.,J.Slacalek.,and M.Sommer.International Evidence on Sticky Consumption Growth[J].Review of Economics and Statistics,2011,93(4):1135-1145.
[33]Deaton,A.,and J.Muellbauer.An Almost Ideal Demand System[J].American Economic Review,1980,70(3):312-326.
[34]Dynan,K.E.Habit Formation in Consumer Preferences:Evidence from Panel Data[J].American Economic Review,2000,90(3):391-406.
[35]Fischer,S.Long-Term Contracts,Rational Expectations,and the Optimal Money Supply Rule[J].Journal of Political Economy,1977,85(1):191-205.
[36]Hall,R.E.Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis:Theory and Evidence[J].Journal of Political Economy,1978,86(6),971-987.
[37]Lucas,R.E.Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs[J].American Economic Review,1973,63(3):326-334.
[38]Mankiw,N.G.,and R.Reis.Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices:A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,2002,117(4):1295-1328.
[39]Muellbauer,J.Habits,Rationality and Myopia in the Life-Cycle Consumption Function[J].Annals of Economics and Statistics,1988,112(9):47-70.
[40]Poi,B.P.Three Essays in Applied Econometrics[D].University of Michigan,2002.
[41]Poi,B.P.Easy Demand-System Estimation with QUAIDS[J].Stata Journal,2012,12(3):433-446.
[42]Ryder,H.E.,and G.Heal.Optimal Growth with Intertemporally Dependent Preferences[J].The Review of Economic Studies,1973,40(1):1-31.
[43]Taylor,L.D.,and H.S.Houthakker.Consumer Demand in the United States:Prices,Income,and Consumption Behavior[M].Springer Science&Business Media,2010.
(1)详细的描述统计图表可在《中国工业经济》网站(http://www.ciejournal.org)下载。
(1)具体估计结果可在《中国工业经济》网站(http://www.ciejournal.org)下载。
(1)固定效应模型估计结果可在《中国工业经济》网站(http://www.ciejournal.org)下载。
[2]杭斌,闫新华.经济快速增长时期的居民消费行为---基于习惯形成的实证分析[J].经济学(季刊),2013,(4):1191-1208.
[3]黄隽,李冀恺.中国消费升级的特征、度量与发展[J].中国流通经济,2018,(4):94-101.
[4]黄群慧.“新常态”、工业化后期与工业增长新动力[J].中国工业经济,2014,(10):5-19.
[5]黄娅娜,宗庆庆.中国城镇居民的消费习惯形成效应[J].经济研究,2014,(1):17-28.
[6]厉以宁.消费经济学[M].北京:人民出版社,1984.
[7]彭兴韵.粘性信息经济学---宏观经济学最新发展的一个文献综述[J].经济研究,2011,(12):138-151.
[8]石明明,刘向东.空间、消费黏性与中国低消费率之谜[J].中国人民大学学报,2015,(3):46-56.
[9]宋明月,臧旭恒.不确定性、粘性信息的叠加效应与我国乡村消费潜力释放[J].经济评论,2018,(3):129-141.
[10]谭涛,张燕媛,何军.中国乡村居民家庭医疗消费支出的影响因素及弹性分析[J].上海财经大学学报,2014,(3):63-69.
[11]唐琦,夏庆杰,李实.中国城镇居民家庭的消费结构分析:1995-2013[J].经济研究,2018,(2):35-49.
[12]田晖.消费经济学[M].上海:同济大学出版社,2006.
[13]王一鸣.改革开放以来我国宏观经济政策的演进与创新[J].管理世界,2018,(3):1-10.
[14]王勇.食品价格波动对家庭消费的影响研究---基于CFPS2014数据的分析[J].调研世界,2018,(8):40-48.
[15]薛荣久.入世在中国改革开放中的意义、作用与维护[J].国际贸易问题,2018,(10):1-15.
[16]尹世杰.消费经济学[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2007.
[17]元惠连,夏庆杰,王志伟.中国城镇居民消费需求分析[J].经济科学,2016,(4):54-64.
[18]张慧芳,朱雅玲.居民收入结构与消费结构关系演化的差异研究---基于AIDS扩展模型[J].经济理论与经济管理,2017,(12):23-35.
[19]张明杨,章棋.乡村居民食品消费结构的转变研究---一个解决支出约束和嵌入人口统计学特征的QUAIDS模型的应用[J].消费经济,2015,(6):27-33.
[20]张颖熙.中国城镇居民服务消费需求弹性研究---基于QUAIDS模型的分析[J].财贸经济,2014,(5):127-135.
[21]赵昕东,汪勇.食品价格上涨对不同收入等级城镇居民消费行为与福利的影响---基于QUAIDS模型的研究[J].中国软科学,2013,(8):154-162.
[22]Anderson,G.,and R.Blundell.Testing Restrictions in a Flexible Dynamic Demand System:An Application to Consumers’Expenditure in Canada[J].The Review of Economic Studies,1983,50(3):397-410.
[23]Banks,J.,R.Blundell.,and A.Lewbel.Quadratic Engel Curves and Consumer Demand[J].Review of Economics and Statistics,1997,79(4):527-539.
[24]Blanciforti L.,and R.D.Green.An Almost Ideal Demand System Incorporating Habits:An Analysis of Expenditures on Food and Aggregate Commodity Groups[J].The Review of Economics and Statistics,1983,65(3):511-515.
[25]Blundell,R.,M.Browning.,and C.Meghir.Consumer Demand and the Life-Cycle Allocation of Household Expenditures[J].The Review of Economic Studies,1993,61(1):57-80.
[26]Campbell,J.Y.,and N.G.Mankiw.Permanent Income,Current Income,and Consumption[J].Journal of Business&Economic Statistics,1990,8(3):265-279.
[27]Carroll,C.D.Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,2003,118(1):269-298.
[28]Carroll,C.D.Consumption and Saving:Theory and Evidence[R].NBER Working Paper,2006.
[29]Carroll,C.D.,E.Crawley,and J.Slacalek.Sticky Expectations and Consumption Dynamics[R].NBERWorking Paper,2018.
[30]Carroll,C.D.,J.Overland,and D.N.Weil.Comparison Utility in a Growth Model[J].Journal of Economic Growth,1997,2(4):339-367.
[31]Carroll,C.D.,J.Overland,and D.N.Weil.Saving and Growth with Habit Formation[J].American Economic Review,2000,90(3):341-355.
[32]Carroll,C.D.,J.Slacalek.,and M.Sommer.International Evidence on Sticky Consumption Growth[J].Review of Economics and Statistics,2011,93(4):1135-1145.
[33]Deaton,A.,and J.Muellbauer.An Almost Ideal Demand System[J].American Economic Review,1980,70(3):312-326.
[34]Dynan,K.E.Habit Formation in Consumer Preferences:Evidence from Panel Data[J].American Economic Review,2000,90(3):391-406.
[35]Fischer,S.Long-Term Contracts,Rational Expectations,and the Optimal Money Supply Rule[J].Journal of Political Economy,1977,85(1):191-205.
[36]Hall,R.E.Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis:Theory and Evidence[J].Journal of Political Economy,1978,86(6),971-987.
[37]Lucas,R.E.Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs[J].American Economic Review,1973,63(3):326-334.
[38]Mankiw,N.G.,and R.Reis.Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices:A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,2002,117(4):1295-1328.
[39]Muellbauer,J.Habits,Rationality and Myopia in the Life-Cycle Consumption Function[J].Annals of Economics and Statistics,1988,112(9):47-70.
[40]Poi,B.P.Three Essays in Applied Econometrics[D].University of Michigan,2002.
[41]Poi,B.P.Easy Demand-System Estimation with QUAIDS[J].Stata Journal,2012,12(3):433-446.
[42]Ryder,H.E.,and G.Heal.Optimal Growth with Intertemporally Dependent Preferences[J].The Review of Economic Studies,1973,40(1):1-31.
[43]Taylor,L.D.,and H.S.Houthakker.Consumer Demand in the United States:Prices,Income,and Consumption Behavior[M].Springer Science&Business Media,2010.
(1)详细的描述统计图表可在《中国工业经济》网站(http://www.ciejournal.org)下载。
(1)具体估计结果可在《中国工业经济》网站(http://www.ciejournal.org)下载。
(1)固定效应模型估计结果可在《中国工业经济》网站(http://www.ciejournal.org)下载。