中国城镇居民区域消费差异的因素分解
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摘要
本文通过收集我国2004-2015年省际面板数据,建立固定效应模型,对我国城镇居民区域消费的影响因素进行了定量分析,并运用Shapley值分解方法分解了这些因素,得出结论如下:城镇居民人均可支配收入、城镇化率、幼儿抚养比、地区固有因素和医疗保健支出比对区域消费影响显著,失业率、老年抚养比对区域消费影响不显著;各因素对我国城镇居民区域消费差异的贡献度,按从大到小的排序为:城镇居民人均可支配收入、地区固有因素、城镇化率、幼儿抚养比、医疗保健支出比。
In this paper, we built fixed effects regression model based on the panel data during 2004-2015,and examined the factors impacting the regional consumption of urban residents in China with the Shapley value decomposition method. We conclude that the urban per capita disposable income, urbanization rate, children dependency ratio, regional inherent factors and health care expenditure significantly affect consumption, while the impacts of the unemployment rate and elderly dependency ratio were not so obvious. Contribution of various factors to the regional consumption difference of urban residents in China can be ranked from high to low as: the per capita disposable income of urban residents, the regional inherent factor, the urbanization rate, the children dependency ratio and the health care expenditure ratio.
In this paper, we built fixed effects regression model based on the panel data during 2004-2015,and examined the factors impacting the regional consumption of urban residents in China with the Shapley value decomposition method. We conclude that the urban per capita disposable income, urbanization rate, children dependency ratio, regional inherent factors and health care expenditure significantly affect consumption, while the impacts of the unemployment rate and elderly dependency ratio were not so obvious. Contribution of various factors to the regional consumption difference of urban residents in China can be ranked from high to low as: the per capita disposable income of urban residents, the regional inherent factor, the urbanization rate, the children dependency ratio and the health care expenditure ratio.
引文
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[16]杨水根,雷楚晶.我国医疗保健支出对城镇居民消费影响研究:基于2001-2011年面板数据的实证分析[J].价格理论与实践,2013(3):71-72.
[17]聂聆,李斌.城镇居民医疗保健消费研究:基于粤苏浙三省的相关情况分析[J].广东商学院学报,2010(6):64-70.
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[20]施祖辉.就业对消费的影响:上海市就业率与居民消费增长关系的实证分析[J].统计与决策,1997(10):32-33.
[21]刘英.地区开放因素对我国城镇居民消费影响的实证分析[J].国际贸易问题,2007(1):30-37.
[22]赵卫亚,袁军江.中国省际消费增长差异成因探析[J].统计研究,2013,30(8):77-83.
[23]万广华,陆铭,陈钊.全球化与地区间收入差距:来自中国的证据[J].中国社会科学,2005(3):17-38.
[24]杨嵘,米娅,王卓.中国农村居民消费差异的因素分解[J].统计与决策,2017(1):102-104.
[2]Pendakur K. Changes in Canadian family income and family consumption inequality between 1978 and 1992[J]. Review of Income and Wealth, 1998, 44(2):259-283.
[3]Blundell R, Preston I. Consumption inequality and income uncertainty[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1998,113(2):603-640.
[4]Barrett G, Crossley T, Worswick C.Demographic trends and consumption inequality in Australia 1975-1993[J].Review of Income and Wealth,2000,46(4):437-456.
[5]Qu Z P, Zhao Z. Urban-rural consumption inequality in China from 1988 to2002:Evidence fr-om quantile regression decomposition[J]. 2008, IZA, Discussion papers.
[6]Cai H B. Chen Y Y, Zhou L A. Income and consumption inequality in urban China:1992-2003[J].Economic Development and Cultural Change,2010,58(3):385-413.
[7]姚勇,董利.中国城镇居民消费需求分析[J].统计研究,2003(4):31-34.
[8]杨继东.中国消费不平等演变趋势及其原因[J].财贸经济,2013(4):111-120.
[9]Wan G H. Accounting for income inequality in rural China:A regression based approach.[J]Journal of Comparative Economics,2004,32(2):117-127.
[10]孙海涛.城镇居民可支配收人与消费支出关系协整分析[J].商业经济,2011(30):26-28.
[11]王娜,张磊.山东省城镇居民可支配收入与消费支出的实证研究[J].山东经济,2010(5):157-161.
[12]李世军,袁光才.城镇居民人均消费支出影响因素计量分析:基于成都市的实证分析[J].技术经济与管理研究,2006(2):53-54.
[13]刘建国,刘宇.中国城市化质量的省际差异及其影响因素[J].现代城市研究,2012(11):49-55.
[14]毛中根,孙武福,洪涛.中国人口年龄结构与居民消费关系的比较分析[J].人口研究,2013(5):82-92.
[15]朱勤,魏涛远.中国人口老龄化与城镇化对未来居民消费的影响分析[J].人口研究,2016(6):62-75.
[16]杨水根,雷楚晶.我国医疗保健支出对城镇居民消费影响研究:基于2001-2011年面板数据的实证分析[J].价格理论与实践,2013(3):71-72.
[17]聂聆,李斌.城镇居民医疗保健消费研究:基于粤苏浙三省的相关情况分析[J].广东商学院学报,2010(6):64-70.
[18]周晓津.1978-2007年中国隐性失业、劳动力流动与整体失业率估计[J].西部论坛,2011(1):6-12.
[19]周吉梅,舒元.失业风险与城镇居民消费行为[J].中山大学学报(社会科学版),2004,44(3):71-125.
[20]施祖辉.就业对消费的影响:上海市就业率与居民消费增长关系的实证分析[J].统计与决策,1997(10):32-33.
[21]刘英.地区开放因素对我国城镇居民消费影响的实证分析[J].国际贸易问题,2007(1):30-37.
[22]赵卫亚,袁军江.中国省际消费增长差异成因探析[J].统计研究,2013,30(8):77-83.
[23]万广华,陆铭,陈钊.全球化与地区间收入差距:来自中国的证据[J].中国社会科学,2005(3):17-38.
[24]杨嵘,米娅,王卓.中国农村居民消费差异的因素分解[J].统计与决策,2017(1):102-104.