新疆乌鲁木齐市城市化与土地利用结构的Granger因果关系分析
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摘要
在城市化与土地利用结构的协调发展成为焦点问题的时代背景下,以新疆乌鲁木齐市为研究区域,采用Johansen协整检验和Granger因果关系分析法,对乌鲁木齐市2000-2015年的城市化水平及5类代表性城市用地结构变化数据进行了处理,并对城市化与用地结构进行了因果关系分析。结果表明:(1) 2000-2012年,乌鲁木齐市城市化水平由84.82%降至77.12%,呈下降趋势; 2013-2015年由77.73%升至81.62%,呈上升趋势,造成这一现象的主要原因是非农业人口增长速率相对于农业人口增长速率较慢;(2) 2000-2015年各类用地所占比例变化情况如下:居住用地比例均在26%以上,明显高于其他用地;工业用地比例较为稳定,均为15%～19%;公共设施用地2014-2015年明显下降,即从平均比例11.46%降至5.03%;城市道路用地比例较稳定,均为5.8%～7.5%;绿地比例呈上升趋势,由20.01%升至30.94%;(3)城市化与居住用地之间的Granger因果关系不明显,工业用地、公共设施用地、城市道路用地是引起城市化的Granger原因,城市化是绿地的Granger原因。对乌鲁木齐市城市化与土地利用结构进行因果关系分析,对城市用地格局的改善、土地利用战略以及有关政策法规的制定具有一定的参考意义。
At present the harmonious development between urbanization and land use structure has become a focus for a city. In this paper, Urumqi City in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is taken as a study area to analyze the causal relationship between urbanization and land use structure by using Johansen cointegration test and Granger causality analysis. The urbanization level of the city during 2000-2015 and five types of typical urban land structure change data has been processed. The results showed:(1) From 2000 to 2012, Urumqi City urbanization level had fallen down from 84.82% to 77.12%; from 2013 to 2015, it had increased from 77.73% to 81.62%; the main cause was the non-agricultural population growth rate slower than agricultural population.(2) From 2000 to 2015, proportion of various types of land use had changed as follows: residential land proportion had been more than 26%, higher than others; industrial land ratio had been relatively stable, between 15% to 19%; from 2014 to 2015, the land for public facilities had been declined sharply, from 11.46% to 5.03%; the proportion of land used for urban roads had been stable, in between 5.8%～7.5%; the green space proportion had increased to 30.94% from 20.01%.(3) The Granger causality between urbanization and residential proportion had been not significant change, but industrial proportion, public facilities proportion and road proportion had been the cause of Granger causality of urbanization.
At present the harmonious development between urbanization and land use structure has become a focus for a city. In this paper, Urumqi City in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is taken as a study area to analyze the causal relationship between urbanization and land use structure by using Johansen cointegration test and Granger causality analysis. The urbanization level of the city during 2000-2015 and five types of typical urban land structure change data has been processed. The results showed:(1) From 2000 to 2012, Urumqi City urbanization level had fallen down from 84.82% to 77.12%; from 2013 to 2015, it had increased from 77.73% to 81.62%; the main cause was the non-agricultural population growth rate slower than agricultural population.(2) From 2000 to 2015, proportion of various types of land use had changed as follows: residential land proportion had been more than 26%, higher than others; industrial land ratio had been relatively stable, between 15% to 19%; from 2014 to 2015, the land for public facilities had been declined sharply, from 11.46% to 5.03%; the proportion of land used for urban roads had been stable, in between 5.8%～7.5%; the green space proportion had increased to 30.94% from 20.01%.(3) The Granger causality between urbanization and residential proportion had been not significant change, but industrial proportion, public facilities proportion and road proportion had been the cause of Granger causality of urbanization.
引文
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[3[1] Maimaitijiang Maiteniyazi, Alimujiang Kastamu. Spatial and temporal change of land cover/utilization in Urumqi based on grid element[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 2018, 34(1): 210-216. [买买提江·买提尼亚孜, 阿里木江·卡斯木. 基于网格单元的乌鲁木齐市土地覆被/利用时空变化[J]. 农业工程学报, 2018, 34(1): 210-216.]
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[2] Alimujiang Kasimu, Tang Bing, Gulikezi Tulake. Analysis of the spatial-temporal dynamic changes of urban expansion in oasis of Xinjiang based on RS and G1S[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2013, 35(4): 1056-1064. [阿里木江·卡斯木, 唐兵, 古丽克孜·吐拉克. 基于遥感和G1S的新疆绿洲城市空间扩展时空动态变化分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2013, 35(4): 1056-1065.]
[3] Bian Xuefang, Wu Qun, Liu Weina. Correlation analysis of urbanization and urban land use structure in China [J]. Resources Science, 2005, 27(3): 73-78. [边学芳, 吴群, 刘玮娜. 城市化与中国城市土地利用结构的相关分析[J]. 资源科学, 2005, 27(3): 73-78.]
[4] Luo Pan, Yang Xu, Wan Luhe, et al. Study of coordination of population urbanization with land urbanization in Harbin, a cold northern city[J]. Journal of the Glaciology and Geocryology, 2017, 39(5): 1150-1156. [罗盼, 杨旭, 万鲁河, 等. 北方寒冷地区城市哈尔滨人口城市化与土地城市化协调关系研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 2017, 39(5): 1150-1156.]
[5] Aman Chang, Wei Xinghua. The influence of urbanization process on land use pattern[J]. Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences, 2007, 35(9): 2687-2688. [张敏, 魏兴华. 城市化过程对土地利用格局的影响[J]. 安徽农业科学, 2007, 35(9): 2687-2688.]
[6] Bumairiyemu Maimaiti, Ding Jianli, Zibibula Simayi. Association study of the relation between urbanization and urban construction land structure change in Aksu City[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2016, 38(1): 279-288. [布买日也木·买买提, 丁建丽, 孜比布拉·司马义. 阿克苏市城市化发展与建设用地结构变化之间的关联性研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 2016, 38(1): 279-288.]
[7] Lu Chunyang, Yang Qingyuan, Wen Feng. The relationship of structure cointegration test and causality analysis: take Chongqing City as an example[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2010, 30(4): 551-556. [鲁春阳, 杨庆媛, 文讽. 城市化与城市土地利用结构关系的协整检验与因果分析: 以重庆市为例[J]. 地理科学, 2010, 30(4): 551-556.]
[8] Bumairiyemu Maimaiti, Ding Jianli, Zibibula Simayi, et al. Characteristics of urban spatial expansion and its driving factors in Korla City[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2017, 39(2): 443-452. [布买日也木·买买提, 丁建丽, 孜比布拉·司马义, 等. 库尔勒市城市空间扩展特征及其驱动因素研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 2017, 39(2): 443-452.]
[9] Zheng Xinqi, Sun Yuanjun, Fu Meichen, et al. Study on the method of structural rationality analysis of urban construction land in China[J]. China Land Science, 2008, 22(5): 4-10. [郑新奇, 孙元军, 付梅臣, 等. 中国城镇建设用地结构合理性分析方法研究[J]. 中国土地科学, 2008, 22(5): 4-10.]
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[1[1] Chen Jianglong, Qu Futian, Wang Qifang. Forecast of land structure transition in developed area: a case study in Jiangyin City, Jiangsu Province[J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2003, 12(4): 317-321. [陈江龙, 曲福田, 王启仿. 经济发达地区土地利用结构变化预测: 以江苏省江阴市为例[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2003, 12(4): 317-321.]
[12] Anwaer Maimaitiming, Dai Rui. Study of the natural disaster vulnerability evaluation in Aksu Prefecture, Xinjiang[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2013, 35(5): 1301-1307. [安瓦尔·买买提明, 戴锐. 新疆阿克苏地区城市自然灾害脆弱性评价研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 2013, 35(5): 1301-1307.]
[13] Yang Qili, He Zhengwei. Land use change and its driving factors in Gansu Dunhuang City of Gansu Province during 2010-2013[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2016, 28(2): 558-565. [杨绮丽, 何政伟. 2000-2013年甘肃敦煌市土地利用变化及其驱动因素分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2016, 28(2): 558-565.]
[14] Bai Wanqi. Analysis of dynamic change of land use in Shenzhen[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 1999, 15(2): 112-116. [摆万奇. 深圳市土地利用动态变化分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 1999, 15(2): 112-116.]
[15] Zhu Huiyi, Li Xiubin, He Shujin, et al. Spatial and temporal variation of land use in the Bohai rim region[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2001, 56(3): 253-260. [朱会议, 李秀彬, 何书金, 等. 环渤海地区土地利用的时空变化分析[J]. 地理学报, 2001, 56(3): 253-260.]
[16] He Chunyang, Shi Peijun, Chen Jin, et al. Study on land use change in Beijing area[J]. Geographical Research, 2001, 20(6): 679-687. [何春阳, 史培军, 陈晋, 等. 北京地区土地利用变化研究[J]. 地理研究, 2001, 20(6): 679-687.]
[17] Wang Siyuan, Zhang Zengxiang, Zhou Quanbin, et al. Spatio temporal characteristics of land use based on remote sensing and GIS technology[J]. Journal of Remote Sensing, 2002, 6(3): 223-228. [王思远, 张增祥, 周全斌, 等. 基于遥感与GIS技术的土地利用时空特征研究[J]. 遥感学报, 2002, 6(3): 223-228.]
[18] He Shujin, Li Xiubin. Analysis of cultivated land changes and their causes in Bohai region[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2001, 17(5): 345-352. [何书金, 李秀彬. 环渤海地区耕地变化及动因分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2001, 17(5): 345-352.]
[19] Long Hualou, Li Xiubin. Analysis of land use pattern and its influencing factors along the Yangtze River transect[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2001, 56(4): 417-425. [龙花楼, 李秀彬. 长江沿线样带土地利用格局及其影响因子分析[J]. 地理学报, 2001, 56(4): 417-425.]
[20] Shi Peijun, Chen Jin, Pan Yaozhong. Analysis of the mechanism of land use change in Shenzhen[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2001, 55(2): 151-160. [史培军, 陈晋, 潘耀中. 深圳市土地利用变化机制分析[J]. 地理学报, 2001, 55(2): 151-160.]
[2[1] Zhang Ming. Statistical analysis of regional land use structure and its driving factors[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 1999, 14(4): 381-384. [张明. 区域土地利用结构及其驱动因子的统计分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 1999, 14(4): 381-384.]
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