基于多方法的高海拔城市暴雨强度公式分析
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摘要
以定量衡量区域降雨规律为目标,推求了林芝市巴宜区城市的暴雨强度公式,收集了1993～2016年共计24年的降雨数据整编资料;采用年最大值法筛选出11个不同降雨历时的暴雨数据并进行水文频率统计分析;选取对数正态分布曲线、耿贝尔分布曲线和P-Ⅲ型分布曲线进行频率适线;采用麦夸特全局优化法、准牛顿全局优化法、模拟退火法、粒子群算法以及遗传算法分别对三种适线结果进行暴雨强度总公式的参数求解。结果表明:耿贝尔分布曲线相对另两种曲线精度最好,五种计算方法对三种曲线结果进行求解得到的暴雨值与实测值误差分析均符合要求。
Aiming to quantitatively measure the regional rainfall pattern,the rainstorm intensity formula for Bayi District of Nyingchi is deduced,and the data of rainfall for 24 years is collected from 1993 to 2016. The annual maximum method is used to select rainstorm data from eleven different durations of rainfall and in hydrological frequency statistical analysis. Logarithmic normal distribution curve,the Gumbel distribution curve and P-type Ⅲ distribution curve is used for frequency optimal line. Mc Quart global optimization method,quasi-Newton global optimization method,simulated annealing method,particle swarm algorithm and genetic algorithm are used to solve the parameters of the total formula of rainfall intensity. The results show that Gumbel distribution curve is the best for the other two curves,and the error analysis of the rainstorm value from five calculation methods for three kinds of curves and the measured value is in line with the requirements.
Aiming to quantitatively measure the regional rainfall pattern,the rainstorm intensity formula for Bayi District of Nyingchi is deduced,and the data of rainfall for 24 years is collected from 1993 to 2016. The annual maximum method is used to select rainstorm data from eleven different durations of rainfall and in hydrological frequency statistical analysis. Logarithmic normal distribution curve,the Gumbel distribution curve and P-type Ⅲ distribution curve is used for frequency optimal line. Mc Quart global optimization method,quasi-Newton global optimization method,simulated annealing method,particle swarm algorithm and genetic algorithm are used to solve the parameters of the total formula of rainfall intensity. The results show that Gumbel distribution curve is the best for the other two curves,and the error analysis of the rainstorm value from five calculation methods for three kinds of curves and the measured value is in line with the requirements.
引文
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[2]SUN Q,MIAO C,QIAO Y,et al.The nonstationary impact of local temperature changes and ENSO on extreme precipitation at the global scale[J].Climate Dynamics,2017,49(11-12):4 281-4 292.
[3]LI Yu,YING Xu,ZHANG Y,et al.Temporal and spatial variation of rainstorms and the impact of flood disasters due to rainstorms in China in the past 25 years[J].Torrential Rain&Disasters,2018,37(1):67-72.
[4]熊立华,闫磊,李凌琪,等.变化环境对城市暴雨及排水系统影响研究进展[J].水科学进展,2017,28(6):930-942.
[5]住房和城乡建设部,中国气象局.城市暴雨强度公式编制和设计暴雨雨型确定技术导则[A].2014.
[6]林炳章,邵月红,闫桂霞,等.水文气象促进工程水文计算核心课题研究的发展[C]∥2012中国水文学术讨论会论文集.南京:河海大学出版社,2012.
[7]黄国如,曾娇娇,张明珠,等.不同选样方法设计暴雨重现期衔接关系探讨[J].水利与建筑工程学报,2015,13(1):30-35.
[8]FALKOVICH A,LORD S,TREADON R.A new methodology of rainfall retrievals from indirect measurements[J].Meteorology&Atmospheric Physics,2000,75(3/4):217-232.
[9]MADSEN H,RASMUSSEN P F,DAN R.Comparison of annual maximum series and partial duration series methods for modeling extreme hydrologic events:1:at-site modeling[J].Water Resources Research,1997,33(4):747-757.
[10]邓培德,韦鹤平,俞庭康,等.城市暴雨公式统计方法的研究[J].同济大学学报,1985,1(1):17-29.
[11]GB 50014-2006(2014年版),室外排水设计规范[S].
[12]GRIFFIS V W.Log-Pearson type 3 distribution and its application in flood frequency analysis(Ⅱ):Parameter estimation methods[J].JHydrol Eng,2007,12:492-500.
[13]周玉文,高琳,杨伟明,等.不同选样方法下暴雨频率指数分布曲线的适用性[J].北京工业大学学报,2016,42(8):1 245-1 251.
[14]张子贤.用高斯-牛顿法确定暴雨公式参数[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),1995,21(5):106-111.
[15]DU J X,MIAO S H,ZHAO B,et al.Improved Ant Colony Algorithm and its Application to the Parameter Optimization in Rainstorm Intensity Formula[J].Applied Mechanics&Materials,2011,108:111-115.
[16]MAO L,TAO T.Analysis and Research on the Rainstorm Intensity Formula Establishment Algorithm in the Urban Drainage System Design[J].2016,13(7):4 064-4 073.
[17]杨一叶,王志刚,夏慧明.人工蜂群算法在暴雨强度公式参数优化中的应用[J].价值工程,2013,1(23):261-262.
[18]李树平.用麦夸尔特法推求暴雨强度公式参数[J].给水排水,1999,25(2):26-29.
[19]李祚泳,高攀宇,邓新民.暴雨强度公式参数的遗传优化[J].气象,2002,28(5):8-10.