基于二分式问卷的青岛浒苔绿潮灾害对滨海旅游资源非使用价值影响评估
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摘要
海洋藻华灾害对沿海地区的社会经济产生了相当大的影响。其中对滨海旅游经济及景观资源非使用价值(non-use value)的影响,无法从市场中得到直接评估。在对这部分非使用价值的评估中,条件评价法(contingent valuation method,CVM,也称条件价值法)是目前应用最为广泛的主要方法。该方法通过社会调查,以问卷方式收集被访者的信息,通过社会经济学的计算方法对目标资源的非使用价值受影响程度进行定量评价。本文利用CVM中的二分式实证问卷,以浒苔绿潮灾害对青岛滨海旅游资源非使用价值的影响为目标,调查在浒苔绿潮发生期内游客对改善滨海景观的支付意愿(WTP)信息,通过二值选择模型(Logit回归模型)计算,将浒苔绿潮灾害对青岛滨海旅游资源非使用价值的影响进行货币化评估,得出了该影响的大致范围,以直观的方式评价了浒苔绿潮灾害对青岛滨海旅游资源非使用价值的影响。这一方法可以作为海洋藻华灾害对社会经济影响评估方法的有益补充,为政府及相关组织对海洋藻华灾害的预防、治理以及更合理和有效的应急处置提供灾害经济影响部分的决策依据。
Algae blooms disaster has had a considerable impact on the socio-economic aspects of the coastal areas.Among them,the impact of coastal tourism economy and the impact of landscape resources,part of the impact of non-use value,cannot be directly evaluated from the market assessment.In the evaluation method of non-market value,condition evaluation method(CVM) is the one that most widely used.The method CVM collects the information of the respondents through the social survey and collects the questionnaire,and then evaluates the target resource value.In this paper,we use the dichotomous questionnaires to investigate the willingness of tourists to pay for the coastal landscape improving during the period of Ulva prolifera(a green tide).The binary choice model(logit regression model) tries to carry out the impact of the Ulva prolifera disaster on the non-use value of coastal tourism resources in Qingdao.This paper evaluates the general scope of the impact of the Ulva prolifera disaster on the value of coastal tourism resources in an intuitive way.In addition,this research,as a supplement to the socio-economic impact assessment methods and contents of the coastal algae disaster,provides the decision-making basis for the disaster and economic impact of the government and related organizations in the prevention,management and emergency decision-making of seaweed disasters and then help them to make decisions more reasonable and efficient.
Algae blooms disaster has had a considerable impact on the socio-economic aspects of the coastal areas.Among them,the impact of coastal tourism economy and the impact of landscape resources,part of the impact of non-use value,cannot be directly evaluated from the market assessment.In the evaluation method of non-market value,condition evaluation method(CVM) is the one that most widely used.The method CVM collects the information of the respondents through the social survey and collects the questionnaire,and then evaluates the target resource value.In this paper,we use the dichotomous questionnaires to investigate the willingness of tourists to pay for the coastal landscape improving during the period of Ulva prolifera(a green tide).The binary choice model(logit regression model) tries to carry out the impact of the Ulva prolifera disaster on the non-use value of coastal tourism resources in Qingdao.This paper evaluates the general scope of the impact of the Ulva prolifera disaster on the value of coastal tourism resources in an intuitive way.In addition,this research,as a supplement to the socio-economic impact assessment methods and contents of the coastal algae disaster,provides the decision-making basis for the disaster and economic impact of the government and related organizations in the prevention,management and emergency decision-making of seaweed disasters and then help them to make decisions more reasonable and efficient.
引文
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[10] MITCHELL R C,CARSON R T.Using surveys to value public goods:the contingent valuation method[M].Washington DC:Resources for the Future Press,1989:72.
[11] AMIRAN E Y,HAGEN D A.Willingness to pay and willingness to accept:how much can they differ?Comment[J].The American Economic Review,2003,93(1):458-463.
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[13] HANEMANN W M.Welfare evaluations in contingent valuation experiments with discreteresponses[J].American Journal of Agricultural Economics,1984,66(3):332-341.
[14] MITCHELL R C,CARSON R T.Using surveys to value public goods:the contingent valuation method[M].Washington DC:Resources for the Future,1989.
[15] 陈强.高级计量经济学及Stata应用[M].2版.北京:高等教育出版社,2014:90-91.
[16] LEE L F.Identification and estimation in binary choice models with limited (censored) dependent variables[J].Econometrica,1979,47(4):977-996.
[17] 于仁成,刘东艳.我国近海藻华灾害现状、演变趋势与应对策略[J].中国科学院院刊,2016,31(10):1167-1174.
[18] WILSON A R.Contingent valuation:not an appropriate valuation tool[J].The Appraisal Journal,2006:74(1):53-61,55.
[2] 周罡.近海藻华灾害对渔业直接经济损失评估方法研究[J].中国渔业经济,2015,33(5):107-112.
[3] 雷亮,李京梅.浒苔对胶州湾海域休闲娱乐功能的损害评估[J].海洋开发与管理,2016,33(9):65-69.
[4] HANLEY N,SHOGREN J F,WHITE B.Environmental economics in theory and practice[M].London:Macmillan Press,1997.
[5] 佟蒙蒙.我国赤潮的分型分级及赤潮灾害评估体系[D].广州:暨南大学,2006.
[6] 庄大昌,董明辉.资源与环境经济学国内外研究综述[J].湖南文理学院学报:社会科学版,2005,30(1):52-56.
[7] 张志强,徐中民,程国栋.条件价值评估法的发展与应用[J].地球科学进展,2003,18(3):454-463.
[8] HAAB T C,WHITEHEAD J C.Environmental and natural resource economics:an encyclopedia[M].Santa Barbara,CA:Greenwood Publishing Group Inc,2016:398-399
[9] 焦扬,敖长林.CVM方法在生态环境价值评估应用中的研究进展[J].东北农业大学学报,2008,39(5):131-136.
[10] MITCHELL R C,CARSON R T.Using surveys to value public goods:the contingent valuation method[M].Washington DC:Resources for the Future Press,1989:72.
[11] AMIRAN E Y,HAGEN D A.Willingness to pay and willingness to accept:how much can they differ?Comment[J].The American Economic Review,2003,93(1):458-463.
[12] BISHOP R C,HEBERLEIN T A.Measuring values of extramarket goods:are indirect measures biased?[J].American Journal of Agricultural Economics,1979,61(5):926-930.
[13] HANEMANN W M.Welfare evaluations in contingent valuation experiments with discreteresponses[J].American Journal of Agricultural Economics,1984,66(3):332-341.
[14] MITCHELL R C,CARSON R T.Using surveys to value public goods:the contingent valuation method[M].Washington DC:Resources for the Future,1989.
[15] 陈强.高级计量经济学及Stata应用[M].2版.北京:高等教育出版社,2014:90-91.
[16] LEE L F.Identification and estimation in binary choice models with limited (censored) dependent variables[J].Econometrica,1979,47(4):977-996.
[17] 于仁成,刘东艳.我国近海藻华灾害现状、演变趋势与应对策略[J].中国科学院院刊,2016,31(10):1167-1174.
[18] WILSON A R.Contingent valuation:not an appropriate valuation tool[J].The Appraisal Journal,2006:74(1):53-61,55.