大气温度反馈的机理及其对全球增暖的贡献
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摘要
大气和地表之间热辐射交换引起的地气温度耦合(即大气温度反馈)是影响地表能量收支平衡的重要因子.文章旨在阐述大气温度反馈机理,讨论影响其强度和空间分布的主要因子;并以全球变暖为例,论述大气温度反馈如何与外强迫和气候反馈过程耦合最终对全球增暖产生贡献.基于ERA-Interim再分析资料,利用地表反馈响应分析方法,计算大气温度反馈核,以此来阐述大气温度反馈的物理机制及其强度的空间分布与气候态温度、水汽和云水含量空间分布的关系,以及全球增暖加速期间大气温度反馈对全球平均表面温度增加的贡献.分析表明大气温度反馈过程主要通过与气候系统外强迫和内部过程的耦合作用,将各独立过程引起的地表能量收支异常信号放大.研究结果表明大气温度反馈显著放大了CO_2浓度升高、冰雪融化、水汽含量增加和海洋热量吸收减缓引起的地表增暖,削弱了云量增加引起的地表降温效应.同时,也放大了地表潜热通量增加造成的地表冷却效应.从全球平均结果来看,全球快速变暖前后,尽管外强迫和气候系统内部过程引起的全球平均总地面直接能量通量扰动为负,但大气温度反馈造成的全球平均总地面能量通量扰动却为正,且后者幅度远大于前者,这导致全球平均总地面净能量通量扰动正异常.由此可见,大气温度反馈对全球变暖起到了至关重要的作用.
引文
丁守国,赵春生,石广玉.2005.近20年全球总云量变化趋势分析.应用气象学报,16:670-677
李崇银,翁衡毅,高晓清.2003.全球增暖的另一可能原因初探.大气科学,27:789-797
李建平,任荣彩,齐义泉.2013.亚洲区域海-陆-气相互作用对全球和亚洲气候变化的作用研究进展.大气科学,37:518-538
李立娟,王斌,周天军.2007.外强迫因子对二十世纪全球变暖的综合影响.科学通报,52:1820-1825
吕达仁.1996.中层大气与全球变化.科技导报,14:31-34
郑彬,施春华.2006.全球平流层下部降温及其对纬向风的影响.气象科技,34:538-541
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Cai M,Lu J H.2007.Dynamical greenhouse-plus feedback and polar warming amplification.Part II:meridional and vertical asymmetries of the global warming.Clim Dyn,29:375-391
Cai M,Lu J H.2009.A new framework for isolating individual feedback processes in coupled general circulation climate models.Part II:Method demonstrations and comparisons.Clim Dyn,32:887-900
Cai M,Tung K K.2012.Robustness of dynamical feedbacks from radiative forcing:2%solar versus 2×CO2experiments in an idealized GCM.J Atmos Sci,69:2256-2271
Dai A,Karl T R,Sun B,Trenberth K E.2006.Recent trends in cloudiness over the United States:A tale of monitoring inadequacies.Bull Amer Meteorol Soc,87:597-606
Dee D P,Uppala S M,Simmons A J,Berrisford P,Poli P,Kobayashi S,Andrae U,Balmaseda M A,Balsamo G,Bauer P,Bechtold P,Beljaars A C M,van de Berg L,Bidlot J,Bormann N,Delsol C,Dragani R,Fuentes M,Geer A J,Haimberger L,Healy S B,Hersbach H,Hólm E V,Isaksen L,K?llberg P,K?hler M,Matricardi M,McNally A P,Monge-Sanz B M,Morcrette J J,Park B K,Peubey C,de Rosnay P,Tavolato C,Thépaut J N,Vitart F.2011.The ERA-Interim reanalysis:Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system.Q J R Meteorol Soc,137:553-597
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Fu Q,Liou K N.1993.Parameterization of the radiative properties of cirrus clouds.J Atmos Sci,50:2008-2025
Guan X,Huang J,Guo R,Lin P.2015a.The role of dynamically induced variability in the recent warming trend slowdown over the Northern Hemisphere.Sci Rep,5:12669
Guan X,Huang J,Guo R,Yu H,Lin P,Zhang Y.2015b.Role of radiatively forced temperature changes in enhanced semi-arid warming in the cold season over east Asia.Atmos Chem Phys,15:13777-13786
Hall A,Manabe S.1999.The role of water vapor feedback in unperturbed climate variability and global warming.J Clim,12:2327-2346
Hansen J,Ruedy R,Sato M,Lo K.2010.Global surface temperature change.Rev Geophys,48:RG4004
Hansen J,Sato M,Ruedy R.1997.Radiative forcing and climate response.J Geophys Res,102:6831-6864
Held I M,Soden B J.2000.Water vapor feedback and global warming.Annu Rev Energy Environ,25:441-475
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Holland M M,Bitz C M.2003.Polar amplification of climate change in coupled models.Clim Dyn,21:221-232
Hu X,Li Y,Yang S,Deng Y,Cai M.2017.Process-based decomposition of the decadal climate difference between 2002-13and 1984-95.J Clim,30:4373-4393
Huang J,Xie Y,Guan X,Li D,Ji F.2017.The dynamics of the warming hiatus over the Northern Hemisphere.Clim Dyn,48:429-446
IPCC.2013.Climate change 2013.In:Stocker T F,Qin D,Plattner G K,Tignor M,Allen S K,Boschung J,Nauels A,Xia Y,Bex V,Midgley P M,eds.The Physical Science Basis.Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.1535
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Jones P D,Moberg A.2003.Hemispheric and large-scale surface air temperature variations:An extensive revision and an update to2001.J Clim,16:206-223
Kaiser D P.1998.Analysis of total cloud amount over China,1951-1994.In:Proceedings of the Ninth Symposium on Global Change Studies.American Meteorological Society.Boston.168-171
Lu J H,Cai M.2009.A new framework for isolating individual feedback processes in coupled general circulation climate models.Part I:Formulation.Clim Dyn,32:873-885
Maugeri M,Bagnati Z,Brunetti M,Nanni T.2001.Trends in Italian total cloud amount,1951-1996.Geophys Res Lett,28:4551-4554
Polyakov I V,Alekseev G V,Bekryaev R V,Bhatt U,Colony R L,Johnson M A,Karklin V P,Makshtas A P,Walsh D,Yulin A V.2002.Observationally based assessment of polar amplification of global warming.Geophys Res Lett,29:25-1-25-4
Qian Y,Kaiser D P,Leung L R,Xu M.2006.More frequent cloud-free sky and less surface solar radiation in China from 1955 to 2000.Geophys Res Lett,33:L01812
Ramanathan V.1977.Interactions between ice-albedo,lapse-rate and cloud-top feedbacks:An analysis of the nonlinear response of a GCM climate model.J Atmos Sci,34:1885-1897
Ramanathan V,Carmichael G.2008.Global and regional climate changes due to black carbon.Nat Geosci,1:221-227
Rudolf B,Hauschild H,Rueth W,Schneider U.1994.Terrestrial precipitation analysis:Operational method and required density of point measurements.In:Desbois M,Désalmand F,eds.Global Precipitations and Climate Change.NATO ASI Series(Series I:Global Environmental Change),vol 26.Berlin:Springer
Schneider E K,Kirtman B P,Lindzen R S.1999.Tropospheric water vapor and climate sensitivity.J Atmos Sci,56:1649-1658
Sejas S A,Cai M.2016.Isolating the temperature feedback loop and its effects on surface temperature.J Atmos Sci,73:3287-3303
Shell K M,Kiehl J T,Shields C A.2008.Using the radiative kernel technique to calculate climate feedbacks in NCAR’s community atmospheric model.J Clim,21:2269-2282
Simmons A J,Jones P D,da Costa Bechtold V,Beljaars A C M,K?llberg P W,Saarinen S,Uppala S M,Viterbo P,Wedi N.2004.Comparison of trends and low-frequency variability in CRU,ERA-40,and NCEP/NCAR analyses of surface air temperature.JGeophys Res,109:D24115
Soden B J,Held I M,Colman R C,Shell K M,Kiehl J T,Shields C A.2008.Quantifying climate feedbacks using radiative kernels.J Clim,21:3504-3520
Stephens G L,Li J,Wild M,Clayson C A,Loeb N,Kato S,L’Ecuyer T,Stackhouse P W,Lebsock M,Andrews T.2012a.An update on Earth’s energy balance in light of the latest global observations.Nat Geosci,5:691-696
Stephens G L,Wild M,Stackhouse Jr P W,L’Ecuyer T,Kato S,Henderson D S.2012b.The global character of the flux of downward longwave radiation.J Clim,25:2329-2340
Sun B,Groisman P Y.2000.Cloudiness variations over the former Soviet Union.Int J Climatol,20:1097-1111
Taylor P C,Cai M,Hu A,Meehl J,Washington W,Zhang G J.2013.Adecomposition of feedback contributions to polar warming amplification.J Clim,26:7023-7043
Trenberth K E,Fasullo J,Smith L.2005.Trends and variability in column-integrated atmospheric water vapor.Clim Dyn,24:741-758
Tyndall J.1861.On the absorption and radiation of heat by gases and vapours.Philos Mag,22:169-194,273-285
Wang K C,Dickinson R E.2013.Global atmospheric downward longwave radiation at the surface from ground-based observations,satellite retrievals,and reanalyses.Rev Geophys,51:150-185
Wetherald R T,Manabe S.1988.Cloud feedback processes in a general circulation model.J Atmos Sci,45:1397-1416
Wu Z,Huang N E,Long S R,Peng C K.2007.On the trend,detrending,and variability of nonlinear and nonstationary time series.Proc Natl Acad Sci USA,104:14889-14894
李崇银,翁衡毅,高晓清.2003.全球增暖的另一可能原因初探.大气科学,27:789-797
李建平,任荣彩,齐义泉.2013.亚洲区域海-陆-气相互作用对全球和亚洲气候变化的作用研究进展.大气科学,37:518-538
李立娟,王斌,周天军.2007.外强迫因子对二十世纪全球变暖的综合影响.科学通报,52:1820-1825
吕达仁.1996.中层大气与全球变化.科技导报,14:31-34
郑彬,施春华.2006.全球平流层下部降温及其对纬向风的影响.气象科技,34:538-541
Adler R F,Huffman G J,Chang A,Ferraro R,Xie P P,Janowiak J,Rudolf B,Schneider U,Curtis S,Bolvin D,Gruber A,Susskind J,Arkin P,Nelkin E.2003.The version-2 global precipitation climatology project(GPCP)monthly precipitation analysis(1979-present).J Hydrometeorol,4:1147-1167
Albrecht B A.1989.Aerosols,cloud microphysics,and fractional cloudiness.Science,245:1227-1230
Auer I,B?hm R,Jurkovic A,Lipa W,Orlik A,Potzmann R,Sch?ner W,Ungersb?ck M,Matulla C,Briffa K,Jones P,Efthymiadis D,Brunetti M,Nanni T,Maugeri M,Mercalli L,Mestre O,Moisselin JM,Begert M,Müller-Westermeier G,Kveton V,Bochnicek O,Stastny P,Lapin M,Szalai S,Szentimrey T,Cegnar T,Dolinar M,Gajic-Capka M,Zaninovic K,Majstorovic Z,Nieplova E.2007.HISTALP-Historical instrumental climatological surface time series of the Greater Alpine Region.Int J Climatol,27:17-46
Brasseur G,Hitchman M H.1988.Stratospheric response to trace gas perturbations:Changes in ozone and temperature distributions.Science,240:634-637
Cai M,Lu J H.2007.Dynamical greenhouse-plus feedback and polar warming amplification.Part II:meridional and vertical asymmetries of the global warming.Clim Dyn,29:375-391
Cai M,Lu J H.2009.A new framework for isolating individual feedback processes in coupled general circulation climate models.Part II:Method demonstrations and comparisons.Clim Dyn,32:887-900
Cai M,Tung K K.2012.Robustness of dynamical feedbacks from radiative forcing:2%solar versus 2×CO2experiments in an idealized GCM.J Atmos Sci,69:2256-2271
Dai A,Karl T R,Sun B,Trenberth K E.2006.Recent trends in cloudiness over the United States:A tale of monitoring inadequacies.Bull Amer Meteorol Soc,87:597-606
Dee D P,Uppala S M,Simmons A J,Berrisford P,Poli P,Kobayashi S,Andrae U,Balmaseda M A,Balsamo G,Bauer P,Bechtold P,Beljaars A C M,van de Berg L,Bidlot J,Bormann N,Delsol C,Dragani R,Fuentes M,Geer A J,Haimberger L,Healy S B,Hersbach H,Hólm E V,Isaksen L,K?llberg P,K?hler M,Matricardi M,McNally A P,Monge-Sanz B M,Morcrette J J,Park B K,Peubey C,de Rosnay P,Tavolato C,Thépaut J N,Vitart F.2011.The ERA-Interim reanalysis:Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system.Q J R Meteorol Soc,137:553-597
Eastman R,Warren S G.2013.A 39-yr survey of cloud changes from land stations worldwide 1971-2009:long-term trends,relation to aerosols,and expansion of the tropical belt.J Clim,26:1286-1303
Fu Q,Liou K N.1993.Parameterization of the radiative properties of cirrus clouds.J Atmos Sci,50:2008-2025
Guan X,Huang J,Guo R,Lin P.2015a.The role of dynamically induced variability in the recent warming trend slowdown over the Northern Hemisphere.Sci Rep,5:12669
Guan X,Huang J,Guo R,Yu H,Lin P,Zhang Y.2015b.Role of radiatively forced temperature changes in enhanced semi-arid warming in the cold season over east Asia.Atmos Chem Phys,15:13777-13786
Hall A,Manabe S.1999.The role of water vapor feedback in unperturbed climate variability and global warming.J Clim,12:2327-2346
Hansen J,Ruedy R,Sato M,Lo K.2010.Global surface temperature change.Rev Geophys,48:RG4004
Hansen J,Sato M,Ruedy R.1997.Radiative forcing and climate response.J Geophys Res,102:6831-6864
Held I M,Soden B J.2000.Water vapor feedback and global warming.Annu Rev Energy Environ,25:441-475
Held I M,Soden B J.2006.Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming.J Clim,19:5686-5699
Holland M M,Bitz C M.2003.Polar amplification of climate change in coupled models.Clim Dyn,21:221-232
Hu X,Li Y,Yang S,Deng Y,Cai M.2017.Process-based decomposition of the decadal climate difference between 2002-13and 1984-95.J Clim,30:4373-4393
Huang J,Xie Y,Guan X,Li D,Ji F.2017.The dynamics of the warming hiatus over the Northern Hemisphere.Clim Dyn,48:429-446
IPCC.2013.Climate change 2013.In:Stocker T F,Qin D,Plattner G K,Tignor M,Allen S K,Boschung J,Nauels A,Xia Y,Bex V,Midgley P M,eds.The Physical Science Basis.Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.1535
IPCC.2007:Climate change 2007.In:Solomon S,Qin D,Manning M.Chen Z,Marquis M,Averyt K B,Tignor M,Miller H L,eds.The Physical Science Basis,Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press
Jones P D,Moberg A.2003.Hemispheric and large-scale surface air temperature variations:An extensive revision and an update to2001.J Clim,16:206-223
Kaiser D P.1998.Analysis of total cloud amount over China,1951-1994.In:Proceedings of the Ninth Symposium on Global Change Studies.American Meteorological Society.Boston.168-171
Lu J H,Cai M.2009.A new framework for isolating individual feedback processes in coupled general circulation climate models.Part I:Formulation.Clim Dyn,32:873-885
Maugeri M,Bagnati Z,Brunetti M,Nanni T.2001.Trends in Italian total cloud amount,1951-1996.Geophys Res Lett,28:4551-4554
Polyakov I V,Alekseev G V,Bekryaev R V,Bhatt U,Colony R L,Johnson M A,Karklin V P,Makshtas A P,Walsh D,Yulin A V.2002.Observationally based assessment of polar amplification of global warming.Geophys Res Lett,29:25-1-25-4
Qian Y,Kaiser D P,Leung L R,Xu M.2006.More frequent cloud-free sky and less surface solar radiation in China from 1955 to 2000.Geophys Res Lett,33:L01812
Ramanathan V.1977.Interactions between ice-albedo,lapse-rate and cloud-top feedbacks:An analysis of the nonlinear response of a GCM climate model.J Atmos Sci,34:1885-1897
Ramanathan V,Carmichael G.2008.Global and regional climate changes due to black carbon.Nat Geosci,1:221-227
Rudolf B,Hauschild H,Rueth W,Schneider U.1994.Terrestrial precipitation analysis:Operational method and required density of point measurements.In:Desbois M,Désalmand F,eds.Global Precipitations and Climate Change.NATO ASI Series(Series I:Global Environmental Change),vol 26.Berlin:Springer
Schneider E K,Kirtman B P,Lindzen R S.1999.Tropospheric water vapor and climate sensitivity.J Atmos Sci,56:1649-1658
Sejas S A,Cai M.2016.Isolating the temperature feedback loop and its effects on surface temperature.J Atmos Sci,73:3287-3303
Shell K M,Kiehl J T,Shields C A.2008.Using the radiative kernel technique to calculate climate feedbacks in NCAR’s community atmospheric model.J Clim,21:2269-2282
Simmons A J,Jones P D,da Costa Bechtold V,Beljaars A C M,K?llberg P W,Saarinen S,Uppala S M,Viterbo P,Wedi N.2004.Comparison of trends and low-frequency variability in CRU,ERA-40,and NCEP/NCAR analyses of surface air temperature.JGeophys Res,109:D24115
Soden B J,Held I M,Colman R C,Shell K M,Kiehl J T,Shields C A.2008.Quantifying climate feedbacks using radiative kernels.J Clim,21:3504-3520
Stephens G L,Li J,Wild M,Clayson C A,Loeb N,Kato S,L’Ecuyer T,Stackhouse P W,Lebsock M,Andrews T.2012a.An update on Earth’s energy balance in light of the latest global observations.Nat Geosci,5:691-696
Stephens G L,Wild M,Stackhouse Jr P W,L’Ecuyer T,Kato S,Henderson D S.2012b.The global character of the flux of downward longwave radiation.J Clim,25:2329-2340
Sun B,Groisman P Y.2000.Cloudiness variations over the former Soviet Union.Int J Climatol,20:1097-1111
Taylor P C,Cai M,Hu A,Meehl J,Washington W,Zhang G J.2013.Adecomposition of feedback contributions to polar warming amplification.J Clim,26:7023-7043
Trenberth K E,Fasullo J,Smith L.2005.Trends and variability in column-integrated atmospheric water vapor.Clim Dyn,24:741-758
Tyndall J.1861.On the absorption and radiation of heat by gases and vapours.Philos Mag,22:169-194,273-285
Wang K C,Dickinson R E.2013.Global atmospheric downward longwave radiation at the surface from ground-based observations,satellite retrievals,and reanalyses.Rev Geophys,51:150-185
Wetherald R T,Manabe S.1988.Cloud feedback processes in a general circulation model.J Atmos Sci,45:1397-1416
Wu Z,Huang N E,Long S R,Peng C K.2007.On the trend,detrending,and variability of nonlinear and nonstationary time series.Proc Natl Acad Sci USA,104:14889-14894