基于Molchan图表法的新疆流体资料预报效能检验
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摘要
通过三组具有代表性的数据(新04泉氢气原始数据、新10泉水氡趋势提取数据、新43泉气氡差分数据)检验实例,介绍了如何用Molchan图表法进行检验和分析。基于Molchan图表法对新疆地区地下流体预报效能评估等级较高的测项进行检验,不仅可以直观地反应预报效能,对观测资料进行评估,又能对异常进行定量分析,得到最佳阈值所对应的异常识别指标,并在此基础上,提取相对应的地震预测预报指标。结果显示,新疆地区地下流体各测项对于不同构造带上的地震预报效能各不相同,分布在乌鲁木齐附近及天山以北地区的测项,对北天山发生的地震预报效能较好,多数测项优势对应时间段为短期,说明短期预测效果较好。
Molchan diagram method can not only evaluate the prediction efficiency of the observation data,but also quantitatively analyze the anomalies in data to obtain the anomaly identification index corresponding to the optimal threshold value.Based on three groups of representative data,new hydrogen raw data in Xin04 spring,water radon trend data in Xin10 spring and gas radon difference data in Xin43 spring,we introduced how to use the Molchan diagram method to analyze the prediction efficiency of observation data.Then,we analyzed the prediction efficiency of the fluid data with better efficiency in Xinjiang,and the earthquake prediction indexes were extracted.The results show that the earthquake prediction efficiency of fluid data in Xinjiang is different for different tectonic zones.The data of observation point distributed around Urumqi and North of Tianshan have better prediction efficiency for those earthquakes occurred in North Tianshan,and most of the data correspond to the short period predicted time,which indicates that the data could be used for the short-term earthquake prediction.
Molchan diagram method can not only evaluate the prediction efficiency of the observation data,but also quantitatively analyze the anomalies in data to obtain the anomaly identification index corresponding to the optimal threshold value.Based on three groups of representative data,new hydrogen raw data in Xin04 spring,water radon trend data in Xin10 spring and gas radon difference data in Xin43 spring,we introduced how to use the Molchan diagram method to analyze the prediction efficiency of observation data.Then,we analyzed the prediction efficiency of the fluid data with better efficiency in Xinjiang,and the earthquake prediction indexes were extracted.The results show that the earthquake prediction efficiency of fluid data in Xinjiang is different for different tectonic zones.The data of observation point distributed around Urumqi and North of Tianshan have better prediction efficiency for those earthquakes occurred in North Tianshan,and most of the data correspond to the short period predicted time,which indicates that the data could be used for the short-term earthquake prediction.
引文
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[23]Jordan T H.Earthquake predictability,brick by brick[J].Seism Res Lett,2006,77(1):3-610.
[24]朱令人,朱成熹,洪时中,等.地震预报效能评价.∥国家地震局科技监测司.中国地震预报方法研究.北京:地震出版社,1991,35-45.
[25]郑兆苾,刘杰,李罡风,等.全国年度地震重点危险区与地震相关性的统计模拟分析[J].地震学报,2000,22(5):538-546.
[26]张国民,刘杰,石耀霖.年度地震预报能力的科学评价[J].地震学报,2002,24:525-532.
[27]朱令人,洪时中,陈祺福,等.一次地震预报有效性的“距准误差”评价法—中短期前兆及预报效能评价之一[J].地震,2003,23(2):1-11.
[2]吴忠良,蒋长胜.统计预测、经验预测、物理预测[J].中国地震,2007,23(3):211-224.
[3]马宏生,刘杰,吴昊.基于R值评分的年度地震预测能力评价[J].地震,2004,24(2):31-37.
[4]梅世蓉,冯德益,张国民,等.中国地震预报概论[M].北京:地震出版社,1993.
[5]孙丽娜,齐玉妍,温超,等.中长期地震预测中的PI算法改进研究及应用[J].地震,2012,30(1):1-9.
[6]蒋长胜,赵伟拮.地震可预测性研究的CSEP计划及其启示[J].刊名???,2009,30(5):34-41.
[7]蒋长胜,吴忠良.对地震预测的一个统计物理算法在川滇地区的回溯性预测检验[J].中国科学:D辑,2008,38(7):852-861.
[8]庄建仓,蒋长胜.用博弈评分法评估分析中国年度地震危险区的预测效能[J].地球物理学报,2012,55(5):1 695-1 709.
[9]蒋长胜,张浪平,韩立波,等.中长期地震危险性概率预测中的统计检验方法I:Molchan图表法[J].地震,2011,31(2):106-113.
[10]Wang T,Jiancang Z,Teruyuki K,et al.Assessing the potential improvement in short-term earthquake forecasts from incorporation of GPS data[J].Geophys Res Lett,2013,40.
[11]杨又陵,高国英,温和平,等.新疆地震前兆异常特征研究[J].地震,2005,25(1):89-96.
[12]王道.新疆及边邻地区7级以上地震前后北天山地下流体动态的异常变化[J].内陆地震,2004,18(1):45-55.
[13]高小其,陈华静,高国英,等.新疆地下流体源兆、场兆、大震远兆特征的统计与分析[J].地震,2006,26(2):83-94.
[14]Molchan G M.Strategies in strong earthquake prediction[J].Phys Earth Plane Inter,1990,61(1-2):84-98.
[15]Zechar J D,Jordan T H.Testing alarm-based earthquake predictions[J].Geophys J Int,2008,172:715-724.
[16]Molchan G M.Structure of optimal strategies of earthquake prediction[J].Tectonophysics,1991,193:267-276.
[17]曲延军,王海涛,沈军.天山地震带强震活动特征[J].内陆地震,2008,22(4):289-298.
[18]高小其,许秋龙,李艳萍,等.乌鲁木齐10号泉流量的映震分析[J].地震研究,2001,24(3):233-237.
[19]Jackson D D.Earthquake prediction and forecasting[M].In:IUGG,eds State of the Planet:Frontiers and Challenges.Washington DC:AGU,2004,225-348.
[20]蒋长胜,吴忠良,马宏生,等.PI算法用于川滇—安达曼—苏门答腊地区7.0级以上强震危险性预测的回溯性检验[J].地震学报,2009,31(3):307-318.
[21]Rundle J B,Klein W,Turcotte D L,et al.Precursory seismic activation and critical-point phenomena[J].Pure appl Geophys,2000,157:2 165-2 182.
[22]Garavaglia E,Guagenti E,Pavani R,et al.Renewal models for earthquake predictability[J].Journal of Seismology,2010,14:79-93.
[23]Jordan T H.Earthquake predictability,brick by brick[J].Seism Res Lett,2006,77(1):3-610.
[24]朱令人,朱成熹,洪时中,等.地震预报效能评价.∥国家地震局科技监测司.中国地震预报方法研究.北京:地震出版社,1991,35-45.
[25]郑兆苾,刘杰,李罡风,等.全国年度地震重点危险区与地震相关性的统计模拟分析[J].地震学报,2000,22(5):538-546.
[26]张国民,刘杰,石耀霖.年度地震预报能力的科学评价[J].地震学报,2002,24:525-532.
[27]朱令人,洪时中,陈祺福,等.一次地震预报有效性的“距准误差”评价法—中短期前兆及预报效能评价之一[J].地震,2003,23(2):1-11.